Kotoseiya Yuichi 3 Posted January 4, 2003 I happened to talk with a friend of mine about computers tonight. He's a decade younger than me and has been interested in computers only for few years whereas I've owned one for more than 20 years now. I told him about the beasts we had to live with twenty, fifteen, ten and even just five years ago and how woefully inadequate they feel by now. I started to think about different variables that can be used to evaluate the relative performance of a computer. Things like speed of the processor, size of physical memory and hard drive space, speed of network connection etc. I compared the differences in various variables between the computer I bought in late 1992 and a hypothetical one I would have been able to buy late last year for approximately the same price. Then I guesstimated the kind of computer one would be able to buy in 2012 if the progress kept on much the same way as it has done the past ten years. My 1992 purchase was a freshly introduced Apple Macintosh IIvx. Its price with a 14-inch monitor and a keyboard (plus standard mouse) was over 23 000 FIM (almost 4000 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Manekineko 200 Posted January 4, 2003 How about miniaturisation? A shift sideways in a point of view. If I still have to sit at my desk to use my PC 10 years from now, that's no advance. I see rather a PDA-sized thingie, with voice recognition for text and command input, and holographic projector for screen. Fast wireless internet connectiona and lots of memory and disc space, but not *that* extravagantly large due to smaller size of media. Most of your disk space will be detached, on Internet if you will, since with such fast connection you don't need to have your files in your machine. No, you'll have them spread across the Net in several copies, all encrypted for safety of course. For the things you really want to hold in your hand, there will be those memory blocks you can hang on your key-chain. They exist today, holding 32Mb already. Surely that will be Gb in 2012... Of course, that PDA-like thing of the future will be used to communicate with your house, which will also be largely computerised by 2012 (or 2022, OK). It will also be a mobile videophone (does anyone call it that anymore, the phone that transfers live image of the person you're talking to? It was a big thing in SF novels of 60's and 70's, and I grew up reading those), universal ID-cash-passport-med.insurance-licence card... We had this talk at my Uni a month or so ago, and after I painted the above picture, a colleague of mine retorted: "yeah, and then it will be: Hal, open the door." So now I'm not so sure I like these prospects of future... (Hmmm...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted January 4, 2003 When I have a little more time I'll probably think more about it. I just think it's easy to make a little too fantastic future prospects. In some areas, the computer hasn't really evolved that much in 10 years, and as in so many other areas, it's far from improbable that it will stagnate at some point, probably around the time more miniaturization and higher speeds will start to present practical problems in implementation as well as usability. My father still uses his 1992 Samsung 15 and while there are much larger for sale today, it isn't really that dated. Even after ten years, the computer screens of the 90s and even 80s have still not been more than notched up a couple of inches, and the flat screens are still very expensive if one wants (or at all can) to get the same kind of prestanda. I imagine that as more and more users start to realize how small the actual difference new computers make to their computer use experience, coupled with increasing difficulties in at all implement new features, the curve of evolution will flatten out quite soon. Now, I'm ALWAYS a sceptic, so I suppose I will just be wrong again ;) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoseiya Yuichi 3 Posted January 4, 2003 I agree I wasn't too inventive as I was just taking the basic current PC structure and multiplied its capabilities ending up with a digital monster. :-D Speaking of miniaturisation, I think it's already sometimes overdone. Many elderly people are already having problems with mobile phones' high-resolution screens and keys full of small symbols. The new xD cards are ridiculously small. Take one out of your digicam, look elsewhere and try locating it again. I'm also personally allergic to PDAs and laptops. Tiny screens and miniscule keyboards coupled with horrendous prices. Why are there no de facto standards for laptop components to drive down the prices and make it possible to everyone to create exactly the kind of laptop one desires? Is this the way capitalism works? ;-) I do know many people are perfectly content with their laptops but I get spasms of claustrophobia with them. Then again miniaturisation is often very cool. Sound cards are becoming folklore as are network cards and rightly so. More open slots are left for other uses or left out completely to enable building computers like these. Voice recognition? Do you want to talk to your computer? The technology exists already but hasn't caught wind for various reasons. Imagine a library hall full of people whispering at machines, possibly swearing at them. :-D Perhaps I'm just an old fart or my native language is too notoriously difficult for computers to understand (even hyphenation is still a bit problematic in an agglutinating language like Finnish) but I don't want to talk a word to a machine. Holographic imaging? Yes, might be very cool but sounds very hard to implement at cheap enough prices. I agree that with a stupendously fast net connection there's less incentive to keep files local. Then again there's certain fascination to be able to actually see the device where all your music, text and movies are stored. If for nothing else, then for those moments when your net connection is cut off. For some reason I tend to have network problems only during basho; go figure. :~-( Perhaps it's just because I might forget other ones and there are ninety (! ) days annually during the six basho so it shouldn't statistically be that unusual to have a network cut-off during a basho. Moreover, there are personal files I would never trust to be stored onto a server administered by a government or a firm, encrypted or not. These are no more unusual as your personal files, I guess but still... Additionally we do not know what is hidden in proprietary operating systems. As someone who downloads the latest versions of whatever Linux distro is in vogue at the time every six months or so, I'm utterly frustrated at Linux. So much promise, so lousy implementations, such a huge duplicate toil wasted on, say, twenty different ICQ clones. Some of which are waste of hard drive space, some merely lousy but barely usable. KDE, Gnome, XYZ123GUI, TskTskTskGUI, Little Johnny's Way Of Drawing Crappy Windows & Menus. Get a life, nerds. I mean, really... Digressing... I agree also my gueestimation of 2012 PC sounds unbelievable. So would have been a 2002 PC for someone in 1992. In many areas the progress is bound to slow down. But there's always a possibility of making really great progress in a relatively short time. DNA-based computing, anyone? (Hehe...) OK, perhaps not in ten years from now. While computer screens aren't that much larger than they used to be, they contain a lot more pixels and better colour depths. 48- or even 64-bit colours displays will come (281474976710656 and 18446744073709551616 colours respectively :-P ). Carmack wants it to create better looking gore. Flat screens are coming down in prices. I bet this monitor I bought last year is most certainly my last CRT. They're getting clearly more common already this year. The real need for progress lies probably in software. So many unreally cool Apple projects were lost in mid-90's. If only someone would be able to incorporate those ideas to The Bloody Mess otherwise known as Linux... Unfortunately I believe Linux will prove as a failure as an operating system for mortals. Torvalds seems to be far too nerdy to understand what it takes. Linux needs its Jobs soon! Digressing again... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yoavoshimaru 0 Posted January 25, 2003 Hi, Very interesting discussion ;) The future always is... A few months ago, before joining this board, I read an interesting (very physics-oriented) article on this point: Article Link Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
