Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2018

[Asashosakari 19,655]

We continue to have a sizable list of KK streakers at our disposal for LKS, including three new sanyaku-rankers joining us just in time - here's your prediction task for Natsu basho:

 1. Abi             9
 2. Takanosho       8
 3. Ichiyamamoto    7*
 4. Daishoryu       7
 5. Ryuden          6
 6. Kamito          6*
 7. Kaisei          5
 8. Daishoho        5
 9. Takagenji       5
10. Mitoryu         5
11. Tomokaze        5*
12. Goeido          4  [score?]
13. Ichinojo        4  [score?]
14. Endo            4  [score?]
15. Shimanoumi      4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further 7 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 14 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Abi.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

[Bumpkin 438]

Abi - mk

Takanosho- kk

Ichiyamamoto - mk

Daishoryu - mk

Ryuden - kk

Kamito - kk

Kaisei - mk

Daishoho - kk

Takagenji - mk

Mitoryu - mk

Tomokaze - kk

Goeido - 9 wins

Ichinojo - 10 wins

Endo - mk

Shimanoumi - mk

TB - 11

[Ryoshishokunin 323]

LKS Natsu 18

 

1. MK
2. KK
3. KK
4. MK
5. KK
6. KK
7. MK
8. KK
9. MK
10. KK
11. MK
12. 8
13. 8
14. MK
15. KK

 

TB: 11 (-1 if Mitoryu kyujo day 1)

 

(I seem to think that everyone in Sanyaku’s in trouble.  This is probably wrong.)

[Tsubame 368]

1. Abi MK
2. Takanosho KK
3. Ichiyamamoto MK
4. Daishoryu KK
5. Ryuden KK
6. Kamito KK
7. Kaisei MK
8. Daishoho MK
9. Takagenji MK
10. Mitoryu KK
11. Tomokaze KK
12. Goeido 10
13. Ichinojo 8
14. Endo 5
15. Shimanoumi KK

TB: 13

[Tenshinhan 1,612]

 1. Abi                  mk
 2. Takanosho    mk
 3. Ichiyamamoto     KK
 4. Daishoryu      mk
 5. Ryuden           mk
 6. Kamito                  KK
 7. Kaisei             mk
 8. Daishoho              KK
 9. Takagenji       mk
10. Mitoryu                KK
11. Tomokaze           KK
12. Goeido                 10
13. Ichinojo                 8
14. Endo              mk
15. Shimanoumi mk

TB: 10

[Profomisakari 873]

  1. Abi             KK

  2. Takanosho       KK

  3. Ichiyamamoto    KK

  4. Daishoryu       MK

  5. Ryuden          KK

  6. Kamito          KK

  7. Kaisei          KK

  8. Daishoho        KK

  9. Takagenji       KK

 10. Mitoryu         KK

 11. Tomokaze        KK

 12. Goeido          11

 13. Ichinojo        10

 14. Endo             8 

 15. Shimanoumi      KK

 

 TB: 12

[Sakura 1,495]

22 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 

 1. Abi             MK
 2. Takanosho       KK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Daishoryu       MK
 5. Ryuden          KK
 6. Kamito          KK
 7. Kaisei          MK
 8. Daishoho        KK
 9. Takagenji       MK
10. Mitoryu         KK
11. Tomokaze        MK
12. Goeido          11
13. Ichinojo        10
14. Endo            8
15. Shimanoumi      KK

 

 

TB: 13

[ryafuji 815]

 1. Abi             MK
 2. Takanosho       MK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Daishoryu       MK
 5. Ryuden          MK
 6. Kamito          KK
 7. Kaisei          MK
 8. Daishoho        KK
 9. Takagenji       MK
10. Mitoryu         MK
11. Tomokaze        KK
12. Goeido          9-6
13. Ichinojo        8-7
14. Endo            MK
15. Shimanoumi      MK

 

TB:12

[Jejima 1,414]

 1. Abi             MK
 2. Takanosho       KK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Daishoryu       KK
 5. Ryuden          KK
 6. Kamito          MK
 7. Kaisei          MK
 8. Daishoho        KK
 9. Takagenji       MK
10. Mitoryu         MK
11. Tomokaze        KK
12. Goeido          9-6
13. Ichinojo        8-7
14. Endo            8-7
15. Shimanoumi      KK

TB: 14

[Gurowake 4,107]

Abi -
Takanosho -
Ryuden -
Kaisei -
Daishoho +
Takagenji -
Mitoryu +
Goeido 9
Ichinojo 8
Endo -
Shimanoumi -

Ichiyamamoto +
Daishoryu -
Kamito +
Tomokaze +

TB 10

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Abi                           MK
 2. Takanosho                        KK
 3. Ichiyamamoto                  KK
 4. Daishoryu              MK
 5. Ryuden                              KK
 6. Kamito                   MK
 7. Kaisei                     MK
 8. Daishoho                           KK
 9. Takagenji                           KK
10. Mitoryu                             KK
11. Tomokaze                        KK
12. Goeido                                        9-6
13. Ichinojo                                      9-6
14. Endo                                           8-7
15. Shimanoumi      MK

TB 12

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

1. Abi MK
2. Takanosho MK
3. Ichiyamamoto KK
4. Daishoryu MK
5. Ryuden MK
6. Kamito MK
7. Kaisei MK
8. Daishoho KK
9. Takagenji KK
10. Mitoryu KK
11. Tomokaze KK
12. Goeido 9
13. Ichinojo 8
14. Endo 7
15. Shimanoumi MK

TB: 11

Pandaazuma

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

1. MK
2. MK
3. KK
4. MK
5. MK
6. MK
7. MK
8. KK
9. MK
10. KK
11. MK
12. KK 9-6
13. KK 10-5
14. MK
15. MK

TB: 8

[Rocks 1,809]

1. Abi             MK
 2. Takanosho      KK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Daishoryu       MK
 5. Ryuden          MK
 6. Kamito          MK
 7. Kaisei          MK
 8. Daishoho        KK
 9. Takagenji       KK
10. Mitoryu         KK
11. Tomokaze        KK
12. Goeido          9
13. Ichinojo       10
14. Endo            7
15. Shimanoumi      MK

TB: 11

[Holleshoryu 17]

Abi - mk

Takanosho- kk

Ichiyamamoto - kk

Daishoryu - mk

Ryuden - kk

Kamito - kk

Kaisei - mk

Daishoho - kk

Takagenji - kk

Mitoryu - kk

Tomokaze - kk

Goeido - 8 wins

Ichinojo - 10 wins

Endo - 6 wins

Shimanoumi - kk

TB - 13

[kuroimori 1,634]

Abi - 

Takanosho -

Ichiyamamoto +

Daishoryu -

Ryuden -

Kamito +

Kaisei -

Daishoho -

Takagenji +

Mitoryu +

Tomokaze -

Goeido 9

Ichinojo 10

Endo 7

Shimanoumi - 

TB 12

[Asashosakari 19,655]

- Abi
+ Takanosho
+ Ichiyamamoto
- Daishoryu
- Ryuden
- Kamito
- Kaisei
- Daishoho
- Takagenji
+ Mitoryu
+ Tomokaze
9 Goeido
9 Ichinojo
9 Endo
- Shimanoumi

TB 10

[Achiyama 1,246]

1. Abi                      MK
 2. Takanosho       MK
 3. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 4. Daishoryu       MK
 5. Ryuden          MK
 6. Kamito          MK
 7. Kaisei          MK
 8. Daishoho        KK
 9. Takagenji       MK
10. Mitoryu         KK
11. Tomokaze        KK
12. Goeido          9
13. Ichinojo        10
14. Endo            8
15. Shimanoumi      KK

TB: 8

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Kosho if able please

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Day 8 so bumpety bump! :)

[Rocks 1,809]

3 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

Day 8 so bumpety bump! :)

I believe the official name for this is pulling a "Giku".

[Suwihuto 133]

Erm, kosho please!

[Asashosakari 19,655]

Welcome to the 17 players participating in Natsu basho! The selection stats:
 

Player	Abi	T'nosho	I'moto	D'ryu	Ryuden	Kamito	Kaisei	D'shoho	T'genji	Mito	Tomo	Goeido		I'nojo		Endo		Shima	TB	Cons
Bumpkin	-	+	-	-	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	MK	-	11	1.71
Ryoshishokunin	-	+	+	-	+	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	8-7	-	8-7	-	MK	+	11	1.47
Tsubame	-	+	-	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	+	+	10-5	-	8-7	-	MK	+	13	2.09
Tenshinhan	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	+	10-5	-	8-7	-	MK	-	10	1.45
Profomisakari	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	11-4	+	10-5	+	8-7	+	12	2.14
Sakura	-	+	+	-	+	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	11-4	+	10-5	+	8-7	+	13	1.75
ryafuji	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	9-6	-	8-7	-	MK	-	12	1.49
Jejima	-	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	9-6	-	8-7	+	8-7	+	14	1.88
Gurowake	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	-	9-6	-	8-7	-	MK	-	10	1.26
chishafuwaku	-	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	9-6	+	8-7	-	12	1.49
Pandaazuma	-	-	+	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	8-7	-	MK	-	11	1.43
Tsuchinoninjin	-	-	+	-	-	-	-	+	-	+	-	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	MK	-	8	1.53
Rocks	-	+	+	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	MK	-	11	1.39
Holleshoryu	-	+	+	-	+	+	-	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	10-5	-	MK	+	13	1.41
kuroimori	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	-	+	+	-	-	9-6	+	10-5	-	MK	-	12	1.76
Asashosakari	-	+	+	-	-	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	9-6	-	9-6	+	9-6	-	10	1.59
Achiyama	-	-	+	-	-	-	-	+	-	+	+	-	9-6	+	10-5	+	8-7	+	8	1.51
	1:16	10:7	15:2	2:15	8:9	10:7	1:16	14:3	6:11	14:3	13:4	4:13		8:9		6:11		7:10
Results	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0		0

Like last basho no completely unanimous selections, but we do have a lot of very lopsided ones - over half the ballot has been picked 13:4 or in even more disparate fashion. We're back to three sanyaku rikishi for this edition, with both ozeki Goeido (narrowly) and sekiwake Ichinojo (quite decisively) being predicted for at least 10 wins, while komusubi debutant Endo received mostly MK picks and thus just needs to hit the normal 8-7 kachikoshi.

Gurowake has produced the most average ballot this time; only his Takanosho selection went against the grain. Tenshinhan and ryafuji have two unconventional picks apiece, though they're not the next-best overall players by the consensus scores - Pandaazuma and Rocks have snuck in front with 3 less extreme picks against the majority, and Ryoshishokunin (also 3) has placed in between Tenshinhan and ryafuji. By far the most uncommon selections were entered by Profomisakari (8 against) and Tsubame (6).

Gurowake's entry is also the most closely aligned with other players', sharing 14 of the 15 choices with both ryafuji and Tenshinhan. At the other end of the spectrum we find Jejima and kuroimori with only 4 picks in common.

The tiebreaker selections are relatively uniform this basho. Numbers from 10 to 13 were all selected 3 or 4 times each, alongside one outlier pick on 14 and two on 8.

[Asashosakari 19,655]

Day 9

You haven't missed much yet. In fact, today only brought the first couple of decisions with Goeido missing his 10-5 target (and KK altogether as he's out of the tournament), and Ryuden falling to MK.

The 7 rikishi on 4 KK streaks have been a bit more active already - Day 7 saw sandanme Takiguchi achieve a 4-0 start so he'll be joining the ballot for July, as will Chiyonoumi who improved to 4-1 today. Onojo, however, had to leave the basho after his first match and is now MK having missed the next three rounds.

The first standings:

Day 9: 2/15 Decisions, TB 2-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Achiyama	2	8
1	Tsuchinoninjin	2	8
3	Asashosakari	2	10
3	Gurowake	2	10
5	Pandaazuma	2	11
5	Rocks	2	11
7	kuroimori	2	12
7	ryafuji	2	12
9	Tenshinhan	1	10
10	Bumpkin	1	11
10	Ryoshishokunin	1	11
12	chishafuwaku	1	12
13	Holleshoryu	1	13
14	Jejima	1	14
15	Profomisakari	0	12
16	Sakura	0	13
16	Tsubame	0	13

 

[Asashosakari 19,655]

Day 10

We continue to wait for the first kachikoshi on the ballot, but another MK has been completed - today's victim is Kaisei who thus ends his five-basho KK run that brought him from J1 to M1. Only Profomisakari decided to bet against that outcome.

Also not part of the next ballot will be veteran Takamiryu, who fell to 1-4 in sandanme today and won't be getting that qualifying 5th kachikoshi now.
 

Day 10: 3/15 Decisions, TB 2-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Achiyama	3	8
1	Tsuchinoninjin	3	8
3	Asashosakari	3	10
3	Gurowake	3	10
5	Pandaazuma	3	11
5	Rocks	3	11
7	kuroimori	3	12
7	ryafuji	3	12
9	Tenshinhan	2	10
10	Bumpkin	2	11
10	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
12	chishafuwaku	2	12
13	Holleshoryu	2	13
14	Jejima	2	14
15	Sakura	1	13
15	Tsubame	1	13
17	Profomisakari	0	12