Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2018

[Asashosakari 19,320]

In time for the business end of the World Cup, here's LKS with its own squad of eleven for you to project and follow:

 1. Ichiyamamoto    8*
 2. Daishoho        6
 3. Takagenji       6
 4. Tomokaze        6*
 5. Ichinojo        5  [score?]
 6. Chiyonoumi      5
 7. Miyazakiyama    5
 8. Takiguchi       5
 9. Tochinoshin     4  [score?]
10. Kyokutaisei     4
11. Akiseyama       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 11 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (7 'veterans' and 2 newcomers...well, one newcomer and one returnee) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 20. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 10 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Ichiyamamoto.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Ichiyamamoto   KK
 2. Daishoho                              MK
 3. Takagenji           KK
 4. Tomokaze          KK
 5. Ichinojo                                            9 wins
 6. Chiyonoumi        KK
 7. Miyazakiyama    KK
 8. Takiguchi                               MK
 9. Tochinoshin                                    11 wins
10. Kyokutaisei                          MK
11. Akiseyama       KK

TB 12

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

Ichiyamamoto - KK
Daishoho - MK
Takagenji - KK
Tomokaze - KK
Ichinojo - 7 wins
Chiyonoumi - MK
Miyazakiyama - MK
Takiguchi - MK
Tochinoshin - 9 wins
Kyokutaisei - KK
Akiseyama - KK

TB - 11

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

1. KK
2. KK
3. MK
4. MK
5. 8
6. KK
7. KK
8. MK
9. 9
10. MK
11. MK

TB: 11

[ryafuji 814]

1. KK

2. KK

3. MK

4. MK

5.  8

6. KK

7. MK

8. MK

9. 10

10. KK

11. KK

TB: 12

[Tsubame 361]

1. Ichiyamamoto KK
2. Daishoho MK
3. Takagenji KK
4. Tomokaze KK
5. Ichinojo 7
6. Chiyonoumi KK
7. Miyazakiyama KK
8. Takaguchi KK
9. Tochinoshin 10
10. Kyokutaisei KK
11. Akiseyama MK

TB: 15

[Profomisakari 857]

  1. Ichiyamamoto  KK

  2. Daishoho      KK 

  3. Takagenji     KK

  4. Tomokaze      MK

  5. Ichinojo       8      

  6. Chiyonoumi    MK 

  7. Miyazakiyama  MK

  8. Takiguchi     MK

  9. Tochinoshin   13    

 10. Kyokutaisei   KK 

 11. Akiseyama     KK

     TB 12

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

1. Ichiyamamoto KK
2. Daishoho MK
3. Takagenji KK
4. Tomokaze KK
5. Ichinojo 8
6. Chiyonoumi MK
7. Miyazakiyama KK
8. Takiguchi KK
9. Tochinoshin 10
10. Kyokutaisei MK
11. Akiseyama MK

TB: 11

Pandaazuma

[Sakura 1,489]

15 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

 1. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 2. Daishoho        MK
 3. Takagenji       MK
 4. Tomokaze        MK
 5. Ichinojo        9-6
 6. Chiyonoumi      MK
 7. Miyazakiyama    KK
 8. Takiguchi       KK
 9. Tochinoshin     8-7
10. Kyokutaisei     MK
11. Akiseyama       MK

TB: 11

 

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,269]

1 MK

2 MK

3 KK

4 MK

5 9-6

6 KK

7 MK

8 MK

9 MK

10 KK

11 KK

TB 6

[Jejima 1,384]

Kosho please for this basho....  I'll be back in September!

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1 KK

2 KK

3 KK

4 KK

5 8-7

6 MK

7 MK

8 MK

9 11-4

10 KK

11 KK

TB 11

•  

[Bumpkin 438]

1. Ichiyamamoto  mk

2. Daishoho mk

3. Takagenji mk

4. Ichinojo  mk

5. Chiyonoumi mk

6. Miyazakiyama kk

7. Takiguchi mk

8. Tochinoshin kk (10)

9. Kyukutaisei kk

10. Akiseyama mk

11.Tomokaze  kk

TB: 9

Edited July 7, 2018 by Bumpkin
Tomokaze missing. Oops!

[Tenshinhan 1,606]

 1. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 2. Daishoho             mk
 3. Takagenji            mk
 4. Tomokaze           mk
 5. Ichinojo                8
 6. Chiyonoumi        KK
 7. Miyazakiyama    mk
 8. Takiguchi            mk
 9. Tochinoshin        9
10. Kyokutaisei       mk
11. Akiseyama        mk

TB: 9

[Gurowake 4,052]

Ichiyamamoto +
Daishoho +
Takagenji -
Tomokaze +
Ichinojo -
Chiyonoumi +
Miyazakiyama -
Takiguchi -
Tochinoshin 9
Kyokutaisei -
Akiseyama +

TB 10


 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Gurowake

[Holleshoryu 16]

•  

 

 1. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 2. Daishoho             kk
 3. Takagenji            kk
 4. Tomokaze           kk
 5. Ichinojo                8
 6. Chiyonoumi        KK
 7. Miyazakiyama    mk
 8. Takiguchi            mk
 9. Tochinoshin        13
10. Kyokutaisei       mk
11. Akiseyama        mk

TB: 11

[kuroimori 1,634]

Ichiyamamoto +
Daishoho +
Takagenji -
Tomokaze +
Ichinojo 8
Chiyonoumi +
Miyazakiyama -
Takiguchi -
Tochinoshin 11
Kyokutaisei -
Akiseyama +

TB 11

[Asashosakari 19,320]

+ Ichiyamamoto
+ Daishoho
- Takagenji
+ Tomokaze
8 Ichinojo
+ Chiyonoumi
- Miyazakiyama
- Takiguchi
9 Tochinoshin
- Kyokutaisei
+ Akiseyama

TB 9
 

[Achiyama 1,243]

1. Ichiyamamoto KK
2. Daishoho KK
3. Takagenji MK
4. Tomokaze KK
5. Ichinojo 9
6. Chiyonoumi KK
7. Miyazakiyama KK
8. Takiguchi KK
9. Tochinoshin 10
10. Kyokutaisei MK
11. Akiseyama MK

TB: 13

[Rocks 1,809]

 1. Ichiyamamoto    KK
 2. Daishoho        KK
 3. Takagenji       KK
 4. Tomokaze        MK
 5. Ichinojo        9
 6. Chiyonoumi      KK
 7. Miyazakiyama    KK
 8. Takiguchi      KK
 9. Tochinoshin     8
10. Kyokutaisei     MK
11. Akiseyama       MK

TB: 12

[Rocks 1,809]

Unless these guys make some abrupt turns it looks like a lot of streaks are going to be broken this basho. 

[Asashosakari 19,320]

18 participants for the second time ever after Haru basho, but this time all players who are already on the banzuke - many thanks for your continued patronage!

The selection stats:

Player	I'moto	T'genji	D'shoho	Tomo	I'nojo		Ch'umi	Miyaz	Takig	T'shin		K'taisei	Akise	TB	Cons
chishafuwaku	+	+	-	+	+	9-6	+	+	-	+	11-4	-	+	12	1.53
WAKATAKE	+	+	-	+	-	MK	-	-	-	-	9-6	+	+	11	1.57
Ryoshishokunin	+	-	+	-	-	8-7	+	+	-	-	9-6	-	-	11	1.46
ryafuji	+	-	+	-	-	8-7	+	-	-	+	10-5	+	+	12	1.46
Tsubame	+	+	-	+	-	MK	+	+	+	+	10-5	+	-	15	1.60
Profomisakari	+	+	+	-	-	8-7	-	-	-	+	13-2	+	+	12	1.57
Pandaazuma	+	+	-	+	-	8-7	-	+	+	+	10-5	-	-	11	1.63
Sakura	+	-	-	-	+	9-6	-	+	+	-	8-7	-	-	11	1.86
Tsuchinoninjin	-	+	-	-	+	9-6	+	-	-	-	MK	+	+	6	1.89
Mmikasazuma	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	-	-	-	+	11-4	+	+	11	1.49
Tenshinhan	+	-	-	-	-	8-7	+	-	-	-	9-6	-	-	9	1.46
Bumpkin	-	-	-	+	-	MK	-	+	-	+	10-5	+	-	9	1.80
Gurowake	+	-	+	+	-	MK	+	-	-	-	9-6	-	+	10	1.34
Holleshoryu	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	-	-	+	13-2	-	-	11	1.29
kuroimori	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	+	-	-	+	11-4	-	+	11	1.29
Asashosakari	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	+	-	-	-	9-6	-	+	9	1.34
Achiyama	+	-	+	+	+	9-6	+	+	+	+	10-5	-	-	13	1.63
Rocks	+	+	+	-	+	9-6	+	+	+	-	8-7	-	-	12	1.73
	16:2	9:9	10:8	11:7	5:13		12:6	8:10	5:13	10:8		7:11	9:9
Results	-	-	+	+	-		+	-	+	- (MK)		-	-

It's a relatively short ballot, but the competition promises to be interesting - I don't believe we've had many other editions with so much disagreement on the likely outcomes.

One of the few things with wide agreement was that Ichinojo should have another middling basho, and the target record for him ended up as 9-6 by the most narrow of margins (5x 9-6, 4x MK, so the 8-7's went to the lower side). By contrast, the expectations on shin-ozeki Tochinoshin were all over the place, going from 13-2 to one makekoshi suggestion. Nice split between those who predicted double-digit wins and those who didn't, though, so his target was set at 10-5.

Gurowake and Asashosakari ended up submitting the same picks, but fortunately with a slightly different tie-breaker and a minimal difference in their Ichinojo guess, so no risk of having to go down to the earlier-entry tiebreak. Their joint entry also differs by just one pick from kuroimori's (on Tochinoshin). A third pair of players who share 10 of the 11 slots consists of Mmikasazuma and  Profomisakari, agreeing on all but Tomokaze. The most disagreement is found in five pairs who only agreed on two rikishi each.

The Gurowake/Asashosakari submission is not the most average ballot, however; they were narrowly beaten to that by both kuroimori and Holleshoryu, who have flipped predictions on the two 9:9 slots (so two different slots, but the same degree of averageness). Their consensus score of 1.29 is in fact the minimum possible this time, as they've voted with the majority on all 9 slots that aren't split down the middle. The most unusual entry was created by Tsuchinoninjin (6 bets against the majority), closely followed by Sakura (even 7 against, but not the biggest upset pick Ichiyamamoto). They're both quite close to the theoretical maximum score of 2.11, although that one is pretty low by historical standards.

Fairly significant disagreement exists on the tie-breaker predictions as well, with a main range from 9 to 13 plus major outliers at 6 and 15.

Good luck, everyone!

Edited September 18, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

And would you believe it - nothing particularly eventful has happened in Nagoya yet, at least in LKS terms. All 11 rikishi can still achieve both outcomes, although withdrawn ozeki Tochinoshin would need to appear on the Day 11 schedule in a few hours to maintain at least theoretical hopes of a 10-5 finish. Ichinojo (3-6), Kyokutaisei and Akiseyama (both 2-7) also stand just one loss away from their negative outcomes.

The 4-KK backuppers in makushita and sandanme have provided a little bit of action already, otherwise I'd have nothing to write about here. Daijo made a fast exit from ballot consideration with a Day 8 makekoshi, which was followed by Kotoseigo today on Day 9. Our first addition to the Aki basho ballot was secured by rookie Maikeru, however, who improved to 4-1 today to extend his debut KK streak to 5.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 10

Ozeki Tochinoshin won't be rejoining the basho, so it's now assured that he'll not only miss his 10-5 target record, but also finish makekoshi altogether and drop out of LKS again.

And among makushitans it's also bye-bye for Ichiyamamoto who fell to 2-4 in his visit to juryo, while Tomokaze clinched his kachikoshi at 4-1 so he'll be with us again in September.

With the Ichiyamamoto MK largely unexpected, nobody managed to score all three points today.
 

Day 10: 3/11 Decisions, TB 2-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Tsuchinoninjin	2	6
2	Asashosakari	2	9
2	Bumpkin	2	9
4	Gurowake	2	10
5	WAKATAKE	2	11
6	Tenshinhan	1	9
7	Holleshoryu	1	11
7	kuroimori	1	11
7	Mmikasazuma	1	11
7	Pandaazuma	1	11
7	Ryoshishokunin	1	11
7	Sakura	1	11
13	chishafuwaku	1	12
13	Rocks	1	12
15	Achiyama	1	13
16	Tsubame	1	15
17	Profomisakari	0	12
17	ryafuji	0	12

 

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 11

Our lower-division members have finished up their LKS duties early: 23-year-old sandanme Takiguchi scored his 4th win today to complete his 6th straight kachikoshi. It's quite an impressive streak actually from somebody who struggled with upper jonidan before - he's in mid-sandanme now, and depending on how his last bout goes, he'll have moved up between 125 and 140 ranks in that year. Leaving us, on the other hand, is Miyazakiyama whose KK streak ended with a 2-4 today.

Just 5 players correctly expected Takiguchi's KK, and as all five unfortunately also predicted kachikoshi for Miyazakiyama, nobody managed to score both available points.
 

Day 11: 5/11 Decisions, TB 3-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Tsuchinoninjin	3	6
2	Asashosakari	3	9
3	Gurowake	3	10
4	WAKATAKE	3	11
5	Bumpkin	2	9
5	Tenshinhan	2	9
7	Holleshoryu	2	11
7	kuroimori	2	11
7	Mmikasazuma	2	11
7	Pandaazuma	2	11
7	Sakura	2	11
12	Rocks	2	12
13	Achiyama	2	13
14	Tsubame	2	15
15	Ryoshishokunin	1	11
16	chishafuwaku	1	12
16	Profomisakari	1	12
16	ryafuji	1	12