Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2018

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 12

No scoring decisions today, but two more rikishi have failed in their quest to join the Aki basho ballot: Veterans Hitachigo and Amatsu are both 2-4 now, ending their KK streaks at 4.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Yeesh...I just realized today that the entry ballot had a minor error in it; among the 6-KK streakers, Takagenji should of course have been placed ahead of Daishoho based on their banzuke positions. That's only relevant for tie-breaking considerations, and fortunately none of the still-possible yusho decisions are affected by fixing it. (All bracket tie-breakers that can happen would finish either before or after those two slots.) I won't be changing the opening post now, but the correct order is now reflected in the selection stats table.

No idea how that managed to slip through twice, at the end of May and before the start of this basho.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 13

We're halfway further towards the conclusion of LKS Nagoya after 3 of the remaining 6 slots were decided today, unfortunately all of the negative variety: Akiseyama's KK quest from 0-7 finally found its end at 5-8, makuuchi sophomore Kyokutaisei fell to the same score, and Ichinojo picked up his 7th loss and can no longer hit his 9-6 target record. (We'll see if he at least manages to remain in the game with a kachikoshi finish.)

The resulting scores were all over the places, with 4 participants collecting the full 3 points, 8 entrants hitting twice, 5 just once, and one unfortunate player even going scoreless.

Two more decisions were also made about the backup rikishi: Asadaimon went 3-4 in high sandanme (missing out on his makushita debut), but Koshinishiki achieved his fifth straight KK in the same area, all 4-3's incidentally.

The updated standings:
 

Day 13: 8/11 Decisions, TB 4-10
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	5	9
1	Tenshinhan	5	9
3	Gurowake	5	10
4	Holleshoryu	5	11
4	Pandaazuma	5	11
6	Bumpkin	4	9
7	Achiyama	4	13
7	kuroimori	4	11
7	Rocks	4	12
7	Ryoshishokunin	4	11
7	Sakura	4	11
7	Tsubame	4	15
7	WAKATAKE	4	11
14	Tsuchinoninjin	3	6
15	Mmikasazuma	3	11
16	chishafuwaku	2	12
16	Profomisakari	2	12
16	ryafuji	2	12

There are still no less than 8 players who can tie for the points lead in the end, and 6 of them have yusho chances. The exact scenarios are a little complex for posting them, but some things can be said:

• If Daishoho (7-6) finishes KK, the yusho will be going to either Holleshoryu or Asashosakari, depending on whether Takagenji (6-7) gets KK or MK.
• If Daishoho finishes MK, the yusho decision is between Bumpkin, Pandaazuma, Tenshinhan and Tsubame, depending on the results of Takagenji and Chiyonoumi (7-6).

Gurowake and Sakura are the two players who can get into tiebreaker playoffs, but not win.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Dammit. No way Daishoho and Chiyonoumi finish MK so my tsuna run is dead. :(

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 14

The outcomes came in succession today: Chiyonoumi and Daishoho secured their kachikoshi in juryo, followed shortly after by Takagenji falling to MK. That was sufficient to determine the LKS yusho winner and it's - Asashosakari! He wins the yusho for the 9th time for the new all-time lead, breaking a tie with former yokozuna Jejima at the top of the career standings.

Commiserations to Gurowake who finishes doten runner-up with the same entered ballot, missing out only by being a little further off in his tie-breaker pick. If I'm not mistaken it's the second-closest yusho decision ever, following the one where we had to resort to the earlier-entry tiebreaker. (Although that was back in 2015 when the game still had fewer tie-breaking provisions; under those older rules this one would have come down to earlier entry as well, flipping winner and runner-up.)

The scored points were well-distributed once more, ranging from 6 threes to 2 zeros, so the standings have been jumbled up quite a bit again at the end.

Ichinojo avoided makekoshi for now so the last order of business for LKS this basho will be to find out if he's going to stick around for the next edition. It won't affect any of the scores, though.

The just about final standings:
 

Day 14: 11/11 Decisions, TB 7-8
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	8	9
2	Gurowake	8	10
3	Achiyama	7	13
3	Holleshoryu	7	11
3	kuroimori	7	11
3	Ryoshishokunin	7	11
3	Tenshinhan	7	9
8	Rocks	6	12
9	Bumpkin	5	9
9	Pandaazuma	5	11
9	ryafuji	5	12
9	Sakura	5	11
9	Tsubame	5	15
14	Mmikasazuma	4	11
14	Tsuchinoninjin	4	6
14	WAKATAKE	4	11
17	chishafuwaku	3	12
17	Profomisakari	3	12

Go figure, all numbers between 6 and 13 were selected for the tie-breaker, except the two that are still possible now... So, no bonus awards this basho, the first time in four tournaments that everybody has swung and missed.

I'll close things out officially tomorrow when we know the next ballot selections. (Besides Ichinojo there's also another sekitori in the running to join with 4 KKs if he wins.) The cut between KK and MK should be obvious so you can already spend the next 24 hours contemplating your banzuke fate.

Edited July 21, 2018 by Asashosakari

[chishafuwaku 476]

An inverted classification would be cool 

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 15

We're closing out LKS with Ichinojo's mighty shove that sent Endo tumbling and KK-ified his own record at the last minute.

The truly final standings for Nagoya basho:
 

Day 15: 11/11 Decisions, TB 8
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	8	9
2	Gurowake	8	10
3	Achiyama	7	13
3	Holleshoryu	7	11
3	kuroimori	7	11
3	Ryoshishokunin	7	11
3	Tenshinhan	7	9
8	Rocks	6	12
9	Bumpkin	5	9
9	Pandaazuma	5	11
9	ryafuji	5	12
9	Sakura	5	11
9	Tsubame	5	15
14	Mmikasazuma	4	11
14	Tsuchinoninjin	4	6
14	WAKATAKE	4	11
17	chishafuwaku	3	12
17	Profomisakari	3	12

A very tough edition it was - out of our collective 198 selections, just 100 turned out to be correct.

Will we ever learn not to overestimate the success rate and thus our TB predictions?

New ballot for Aki 2018:

    Ichiyamamoto    8*
    Takagenji       6
 1. Daishoho        7
 2. Tomokaze        7*
 3. Ichinojo        6
 4. Chiyonoumi      6
    Miyazakiyama    5
 5. Takiguchi       6
    Tochinoshin     4
    Kyokutaisei     4
    Akiseyama       4
 6. Wakatakamoto    5
 7. Koshinishiki    5
 8. Maikeru         5*
---
 9. Aoiyama         4
10. Sadanoumi       4
11. Wakatakakage    4

Sadanoumi was our second bubble boy for senshuraku, next to Ichinojo, and he too was successful in reaching the promised kachikoshi land. So, it'll be another 11-rikishi ballot in September. (Ichinojo as the last man standing in sanyaku is perhaps not quite what many people would have expected to see...)

As always, thank you for playing! Hope to see you back for Aki basho.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Asashosakari 9 (8+top)
Gurowake 9 (8+top)
Achiyama 7
Holleshoryu 7
kuroimori 7
Ryoshishokunin 7
Tenshinhan 7
Rocks 6
Bumpkin 5
Pandaazuma 5
ryafuji 5
Sakura 5
Tsubame 5
Mmikasazuma 4
Tsuchinoninjin 4
WAKATAKE 4
chishafuwaku 3
Profomisakari 3

Total: 102 / 18 = 5.67 ---> +2 wins

Low but pretty straight-forward scores, with a better than usual distribution.

New banzuke for Aki 2018:

kuroimori (O1w 9-6)       O1  Pandaazuma (O1e 7-8)
Mmikasazuma (O2e 6-9)     O2  Asashosakari (Se 11-4 Y)
Gurowake (K1e 11-4 D)     S1  Tenshinhan (K2e 9-6)
Sakura (O2w 7-8)          S2  ---
Rocks (K2w 8-7)           K1  Achiyama (M2e 9-6)
---                       K2  Holleshoryu (M2w 9-6)
Ryoshishokunin (M4e 9-6)  M1  ryafuji (K1w 7-8)
Jejima (M1e kosho)        M2  Tsuchinoninjin (Sw 6-9)
WAKATAKE (M1w 6-9)        M3  Bumpkin (M4w 7-8)
Tsubame (M5w 7-8)         M4  chishafuwaku (M3w 5-10)
Profomisakari (M5e 5-10)  M5  Suwihuto (M3e 0-0-15)

Pandaazuma's tsuna run is indeed and sadly toast, and he even finds himself kadoban. Mmikasazuma's start into her ozeki career (after being kosho in her debut last time) also wasn't the most auspicious, and Sakura even had to vacate the ozeki rank altogether following back-to-back MK. Only ironman kuroimori in his record-setting 14th consecutive ozeki tournament was able to escape the carnage.

Last not least, two months ago I wrote the following:

On 5/28/2018 at 15:46, Asashosakari said:

Asashosakari's interminable ozeki run isn't quite dead, but this basho's minimum KK means that it's nearly back to square one, considering the previous results weren't exceptionally strong either.

Go figure, with my banzuke maker's hat on, this yusho was just about the last result I needed, because it's left me once again having to contemplate the strength of a rather non-standard set of scores. FWIW, since the end of my previous ozeki stint, the following results have been scored:

2017.03  S2w  6-9
2017.05  M2e  9-6    3rd-4th
2017.07  K1e 10-5 J  2nd-3rd
2017.09  S2e  7-8
2017.11  Kw   9-6 J  2nd-4th
2018.01  Se   9-6    3rd-5th
2018.03  S1e  9-6    3rd-7th
2018.05  Se   8-7    9th-10th
2018.07  Se  11-4 Y

Having shelved the promotion after that triple 9-6 with high-ish finishing positions, I hope it won't look too self-serving that I've decided to pull the trigger this time, based on the sum total goodness of the last five results. (Worse comes to worse, this will just end like my recent ozeki times in Fantasy Sumo and Oracle, which were over after the minimum two basho each...)

This promotion also sets a record as the third Asashosakari ozeki promotion done the hard way. Kuroimori is the overall leader with four ozeki stints, but three of them started with an immediate return following demotion. No longer active Asojima also was at ozeki three times, twice achieved the hard way.

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

22 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Will we ever learn not to overestimate the success rate and thus our TB predictions?

 

8/20 is remarkably bad--indicating to me that most of these guys just got lucky (and are thus overranked) rather than are actually showing skill and getting rewarded for it.  
Thanks as always for the game.