GTB January 2019 Hanukka edition and results!

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Among the 79 overall entries, 55 out of the top 60 GTB players. The absences (all kosho) are largely near the lower end: #32 Sukubidubidu, #48 Tiger Tanaka, #53 Tatsuomi, #57 Korinokoishi and #58 Wakatake are sitting this one out.

Last basho's kosho trio - #17 Kotononami, #20 Tsuchinoninjin and #42 Kamogawa - are all back in the mix.

The provisional post-Hatsu ranking - current pre-Hatsu standings in brackets. The list includes all top 20 both pre and post:

 1 Feginowaka      4.293  ( 1 / 5.571)
 2 Chiyonosawa     4.279  ( 4 / 5.463)
 3 Okisuruga       4.245  ( 2 / 5.494)
 4 Asashosakari    4.237  ( 3 / 5.486)
 5 Pandaazuma      4.142  ( 5 / 5.346)
 6 Flohru          4.095  ( 7 / 5.236)
 7 Tenshinhan      4.041  ( 8 / 5.233)
 8 Gurowake        4.029  ( 6 / 5.251)
 9 Andonishiki     4.010  (10 / 5.155)
10 Seki Haruaki    4.000  ( 9 / 5.158)
11 Yubinhaad       3.997  (11 / 5.128)
12 Shatsume        3.995  (16 / 4.953)
13 Toyama          3.939  (18 / 4.908)
14 Heriokuno       3.922  (12 / 5.065)
15 Ganzohnesushi   3.906  (13 / 5.052)
16 Susanoo         3.889  (21 / 4.879)
17 Kotononami      3.871  (17 / 4.916)
18 Kishikaisei     3.864  (25 / 4.756)
19 Sakura          3.846  (23 / 4.861)
20 Taxinohana      3.838  (19 / 4.891)
..
21 Gooner          3.821  (15 / 4.972)
22 Tsuchinoninjin  3.801  (20 / 4.886)
23 Chishafuwaku    3.762  (14 / 5.039)

The incoming top 10 are also the provisional top 10, albeit in slightly different order. The perennial top 3 contenders for the #1 spot have received new company - Chiyonosawa improved his ranking point total with a tie for 3rd place back in Kyushu, and additionally he is defending the second-lowest score among the top 10 this time, so he's now a prime candidate to take the overall lead.

Any of the top 4 could easily walk out of Hatsu basho as #1, though, as they're separated by as little as 3 or 4 game points. Pandaazuma in provisional 5th place already trails by 7 or 8, a rather large barrier to overcome when chasing four different players.

Kishikaisei will be happy to get rid of his score from Hatsu 2018, where he finished tied for sixth from the bottom with a converted 1-14 record, and consequently he's set for a big upwards move here. Shatsume, Toyama, Susanoo and Sakura were also below average in that basho and have a chance to pick up some positions in the ranking as well. Conversely, it's a crucial contest for Gooner who is defending a runner-up score from Kyushu 2017, and even more so for Chishafuwaku, who sees his dominant Hatsu 2018 yusho dropping off the tally.
 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,667]

My entry for this deceptively easy-looking GTB edition:

Kisenosato (Y2e 0-5-10)  Y1   Hakuho (Y1e 0-0-15)
Kakuryu (Y1w 0-0-15)     Y2   ---
Takayasu (O1w 12-3)      O1   Goeido (O1e 8-4-3)
---                      O2   Tochinoshin (O2w 8-7)
Takakeisho (Ke 13-2 Y)   S    Tamawashi (M2w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (Se 7-8)       K    Myogiryu (M1e 8-7)

Tochiozan (M2e 8-7)      M1   Ichinojo (Sw 6-9)
Nishikigi (M3e 8-7)      M2   Hokutofuji (M1w 7-8)
Shodai (M4e 8-7)         M3   Shohozan (M7w 10-5)
Kotoshogiku (M9e 10-5)   M4   Okinoumi (M11w 11-4)
Yoshikaze (M4w 7-8)      M5   Chiyotairyu (M5e 7-8)
Aoiyama (M12e 11-4)      M6   Ryuden (M3w 6-9)
Onosho (M13e 11-4)       M7   Daieisho (M9w 9-6)
Kaisei (Kw 3-9-3)        M8   Asanoyama (M5w 6-9)
Takanoiwa (M6e 6-9)      M9   Endo (M12w 9-6)
Takarafuji (M8w 7-8)     M10  Abi (M7e 6-9)
Sadanoumi (M10e 7-8)     M11  Ikioi (M8e 6-9)
Kagayaki (M6w 5-10)      M12  Meisei (M15w 9-6)
Yago (J1e 10-5)          M13  Kotoyuki (J3e 10-5)
Chiyoshoma (M14e 7-8)    M14  Yutakayama (M10w 5-10)
Daiamami (M15e 7-8)      M15  Chiyonokuni (M11e 5-10)
Kotoeko (J1w 8-7)        M16  Terutsuyoshi (J5w 10-5)

There's so much that could go terribly wrong here...

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Unfortunately Sumo DB crashed on me when I hit the submit button, so I'm out for this time around.

[Bumpkin 438]

8 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Unfortunately Sumo DB crashed on me when I hit the submit button, so I'm out for this time around.

Mono-ii.

[Rocks 1,809]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

My entry for this deceptively easy-looking GTB edition:

Kisenosato (Y2e 0-5-10)  Y1   Hakuho (Y1e 0-0-15)
Kakuryu (Y1w 0-0-15)     Y2   ---
Takayasu (O1w 12-3)      O1   Goeido (O1e 8-4-3)
---                      O2   Tochinoshin (O2w 8-7)
Takakeisho (Ke 13-2 Y)   S    Tamawashi (M2w 9-6)
Mitakeumi (Se 7-8)       K    Myogiryu (M1e 8-7)

Tochiozan (M2e 8-7)      M1   Ichinojo (Sw 6-9)
Nishikigi (M3e 8-7)      M2   Hokutofuji (M1w 7-8)
Shodai (M4e 8-7)         M3   Shohozan (M7w 10-5)
Kotoshogiku (M9e 10-5)   M4   Okinoumi (M11w 11-4)
Yoshikaze (M4w 7-8)      M5   Chiyotairyu (M5e 7-8)
Aoiyama (M12e 11-4)      M6   Ryuden (M3w 6-9)
Onosho (M13e 11-4)       M7   Daieisho (M9w 9-6)
Kaisei (Kw 3-9-3)        M8   Asanoyama (M5w 6-9)
Takanoiwa (M6e 6-9)      M9   Endo (M12w 9-6)
Takarafuji (M8w 7-8)     M10  Abi (M7e 6-9)
Sadanoumi (M10e 7-8)     M11  Ikioi (M8e 6-9)
Kagayaki (M6w 5-10)      M12  Meisei (M15w 9-6)
Yago (J1e 10-5)          M13  Kotoyuki (J3e 10-5)
Chiyoshoma (M14e 7-8)    M14  Yutakayama (M10w 5-10)
Daiamami (M15e 7-8)      M15  Chiyonokuni (M11e 5-10)
Kotoeko (J1w 8-7)        M16  Terutsuyoshi (J5w 10-5)

There's so much that could go terribly wrong here...

It did seem rather easy except for the middle and whether to keep Daishmaru or not, I kept him. Daishoho didn't do enough to force it and I didn't see them promoting a guy 3 ranks down with 2 more wins over him.

Mine:

  Yokozuna E: Kisenosato Y2e (0-5-10)      Yokozuna W: Hakuho Y1e (0-0-15)

  Yokozuna E2: Kakuryu Y1w (0-0-15)

  Ozeki E: Takayasu O1w (12-3)                   Ozeki W: Goeido O1e (8-4-3)

  Ozeki W2: Tochinoshin O2w (8-7)

Sekiwake E: Takakeisho K1e (13-2)            Sekiwake W: Tamawashi M2w (9-6)   

Komusubi E: Mitakeumi S1e (7-8)               Komusubi W: Myogiryu M1e (8-7)

 Maegashira E: Tochiozan M2e (8-7)  Maegashira W: Ichinojo S1w (6-9)

Maegashira E2: Nishikigi M3e (8-7) Maegashira W2: Hokutofuji M1w (7-8)

Maegashira E3: Shodai M4e (8-7) Maegashira W3: Shohozan M7w (10-5)

Maegashira E4: Kotoshogiku M9e (10-5) Maegashira W4: Okinoumi M11w (11-4)

Maegashira E5: Daieisho M9w (9-6) Maegashira W5: Yoshikaze M4w (7-8)

Maegashira E6: Chiyotairyu M5e (7-8) Maegashira W6: Aoiyama M12e (11-4)

Maegashira E7: Ryuden M3w (6-9) Maegashira W7: Onosho M13e (11-4)

Maegashira E8: Endo M12w (9-6) Maegashira W8: Kaisei K1w (3-9-3)

Maegashira E9: Asanoyama M5w (6-9) Maegashira W9: Takarafuji M8w (7-8)

Maegashira E10: Takanoiwa M6e (6-9) Maegashira W10: Abi M7e (6-9)

Maegashira E11: Sadanoumi M10e (7-8) Maegashira W11: Kagayaki M6w (5-10)

Maegashira E12: Ikioi M8e (6-9) Maegashira W12: Meisei M15w (9-6)

Maegashira E13: Yago J1e (10-5) Maegashira W13: Yutakayama M10w (5-10)

Maegashira E14: Chiyonokuni M11e (5-10) Maegashira W14: Chiyoshoma M14e (7-8)

Maegashira E15: Kotoyuki J3e (10-5) Maegashira W15: Daiamami M15e (7-8)

Maegashira E16: Kotoeko J1w (8-7) Maegashira W16: Daishomaru M14w (6-9)

 

I know Takanoiwa doesn't seem right but it was over demote him or Takarafuji so I went with Takanoiwa.

@Asashosakari   Kotoyuki all the way to 13 the same as Yago?

[Kintamayama 45,530]

5 hours ago, Rocks said:

 

@Asashosakari   Kotoyuki all the way to 13 the same as Yago?

I thought the same as Asashosakari.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

6 hours ago, Rocks said:

Kotoyuki all the way to 13 the same as Yago?

I rolled the dice there, pretty much. Can imagine absolutely any position between M13w and M15w for him...

Daishomaru vs Terutsuyoshi was a 50/50, too. I had Daishomaru in my first draft, but went the other way in the end. Mainly because I have this sneaking suspicion that they like to reward guys who are steadily moving up, and Terutsuyoshi's on 4 straight KK. One could have made the same argument for Daishoho, but there's no other borderline demotee for him, and I didn't think they'd go against the numbers and pick him instead of Terutsuyoshi (although that's definitely a non-negligible possibility, too).

Edited December 19, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Rocks 1,809]

1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

I rolled the dice there, pretty much. Can imagine absolutely any position between M13w and M15w for him...

Oh, okay. I thought there was some convention I didn't know about.

[Gurowake 4,108]

[Oortael 153]

13 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Daishomaru vs Terutsuyoshi was a 50/50, too. I had Daishomaru in my first draft, but went the other way in the end. Mainly because I have this sneaking suspicion that they like to reward guys who are steadily moving up, and Terutsuyoshi's on 4 straight KK.

 

Disclaimer: I’ve been following sumo for just a few months, so my knowledge is limited and I surely miss some context.  but …

 

Let’s check what recent history says for the Daishomaru/Terutsuyoshi dilemma.

Since 2010, there were 22 rikishi going 6-9 from M14 (east or west). 10 stayed in Makuuchi and 12 were demoted to Juryo*. So the Daishomaru part is close to a toss-up but favors the demotion.

On a side note, 9 of the 10 guys who stayed in Makuuchi went makekoshi the following basho (like Chiyomaru during last basho). Which would favors demotion even more.

 

Since 2010, there were 11 rikishi going 10-5 from J5. 6 were promoted and 5 stayed in Juryo. So the Terutsuyoshi part is also close to a toss-up but favors the promotion.

On a side note again, between 2005 and 2009, there were 9 rikishi going 10-5 from J5 and they’ve all been promoted. It seems NSK changed its mind and are now handing promotion more cautiously.

 

So overall, recent history goes towards Terutsuyoshi, but it’s pretty close.

 

* There were 2 rikishi ranked M17e for the following basho. Here, there will be no M17 rank in 2019.01 so I counted them as demoted even if they actually stayed in Makuuchi.

[Tenshinhan 1,612]

I think every case is different because it always depends on how many promotable/demotable records there are overall. For example, in May 2018 there were three demotable records in Makuuchi (one of them was M14 Takekaze, 6-9) but four promotable records in Juryo (one of them J5 Akiseyama, 10-5). They didn't want to overdemote a Makuuchi rikishi in favour of Akiseyama, so him and Takekaze both ended up at J1. Regarding Makuuchi/Juryo exchanges they seem to go quite straight by the numbers. Of course, they kept M14 Chiyomaru (6-9) in Makuuchi last time but only because there was no other Juryo rikishi who really forced a promotion by the numbers (8-7 Yago was promoted one rank from J2 to J1).

6-9 Daishomaru is now at the same rank as Chiyomaru last time (M14w) but the difference is that 10-5 Terutsuyoshi deserves a five rank promotion with his record (to M16w). That's why I went with Terutsuyoshi's promotion. They might still keep him in Juryo. Sometimes they favour the more experienced rikishi a bit in such decisions when they feel that a young and upcoming rikishi seems not quite ready for Makuuchi (or wasn't convincing enough in his Juryo bouts).

[Andonishiki 170]

sorry guys, but if Kise really gets the Y1e spot, i will call it RIDICULOUS !

How many fights did he win in Kyu’18 ? ZERO

same number has Hakuho and Kakuryu. How can he improve his ranking just by showing up ? just for mounting the dohyo ? Is the yoko dohyo-iri worth the higher rank ? 

A clear NO for me.

so anything else than

Y1e Hakuho   Y1w Kakuryu

Y2e Kisenosato

would be a bad bad decision in my view. Same number of wins should be treated same and ZERO wins for a yok cannot lead to a higher rank. For any other rank this might be different, but for a yok, not showing up is definitely better than showing up, but not even winning one... Handing out kinboshi to fellow rikishi in need ?? can the kyokai reward this ?

zettai dame

[Bumpkin 438]

Showing up is better than being absent. I picked Kisenosato as Y1e. We shall see.

[Asapedroryu 235]

If Kise gets the top spot (which for me makes no sense), then following the same logic, Tochi must be higher than Goeido.

[Gurowake 4,108]

18 minutes ago, RPedro44 said:

If Kise gets the top spot (which for me makes no sense), then following the same logic, Tochi must be higher than Goeido.

Banzuke decisions are not about what makes sense.  They regularly are inconsistent, or continually make one-off exceptions like with the rearranging of KK Sekiwake only in the case that the west one wins the yusho.  Sure, if that's going to be the rule, fine.  But there are very few hard-and-fast rules, and a bunch of shifting guidelines.  There isn't any recent history to guide us on this, but there is good reason to suspect they will reach for any justification they can to put Kisenosato at the top of the banzuke.  If I were forced to offer betting odds on Kisenosato getting the top spot (such that I would have to be willing to accept either side of the bet at those odds), I'd put the probability around 60%, so I certainly won't be particularly surprised if the Yokozuna remain unchanged - it's just that I think it's more likely Kisenosato will get the nod despite it not really making sense given how they've treated kyujos with equal number of wins before (see Kotoshogiku-Goeido after Kyushu 2015 for verification of it).  There's something distinctly different about withdrawing from the whole tournament not having competed at all compared to having given some effort and not succeeded.  In the lower divisions, an 0-7 is definitely treated less harshly than never showing up.  They will demote 0-0-7s past 0-7s of slightly lower rank, for instance see this pair of movements after Nagoya 2011.

And who knows? Maybe they will put Tochinoshin ahead of Goeido.

[Nantonoyama 252]

15 hours ago, Gurowake said:

 They will demote 0-0-7s past 0-7s of slightly lower rank, for instance see this pair of movements after Nagoya 2011.

 

In makushita, 0-7 = minus 35 ranks and 0-0-7 = minus 40 ranks
In sandanme, 0-7 = minus 50 ranks and 0-0-7 = minus 60 ranks
in jonidan, 0-7 = minus 60 ranks and 0-0-7 = minus 70 ranks

They are remarkably consistent on those numbers

[Rocks 1,809]

Well, no time to look close now but I got around 53. Banzuke actually looks close to my first draft. 

[Asashosakari 19,667]

64 for me, around 10th place I would guess...there will be people who got the stuff right that I got wrong, and I doubt they've all done me the favour of mistakes elsewhere.

Anyway, in summary: 2 points lost on the komusubi swap (that's a real surprise decision to me), only 1/10 scored in M5e-M7e, and only 3/12 in M14e-M16w. Rest is correct, which at least means my errors were confined to small sections.

Edited December 24, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Nantonoyama 252]

69 points. Pretty good, but I guess it will be a high-scoring basho. Errors in S-K, M9-10 and M15-16

[Kintamayama 45,530]

OK, get this- our winner got all 42 ranks right- with 34 bulls-eyes. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this has never happened before. He is also number 1 overall. It's his second yusho. Ladies and gentlemen, with 76 points, it's Pandaazuma!! <BOW> It was a high scoring affair, as was suggested by a few players. 4 new players, none of them kachikoshi in their first attempt, but none placing in the last 8 places. 

Milestones:

Takanorappa- 110th(!!!!) basho

Kaiomitsuki-90th basho(!)

Taxinohana-80th basho

Gooner-80th basho

Akezuma-60th basho

Aminoumi-40th basho

Toyama-30th basho

Suwihuto-20th basho

Thank you all for playing and special thanks to Andoreasu with his lightning quick summing of the points, and to Doitsuyama for being Doitsuyama.

And now, on with the Ba-Show!!

If you want to see how you performed, go here.

 

 

[Ryoshishokunin 323]

I had just finished counting up my score, deciding it couldn't possibly be correct, and counting it again when @Kintamayama -san posted.  As always I was too nice to someone in Juryo, but I'll take 73 points and the Jun-Yusho with pride and honour.  

Thanks to the organisers, and congratulations to Panda-san.

[Rocks 1,809]

Congrats to Pandazuma!!! 

[Rocks 1,809]

51 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

2 points lost on the komusubi swap (that's a real surprise decision to me),

Me too. Complete surprise to me. Did anyone see that coming?

[Ryoshishokunin 323]

5 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Me too. Complete surprise to me. Did anyone see that coming?

We'll see when the stats link comes out--I'd guess not many.  Not me, anyway.

Edited December 24, 2018 by Ryoshishokunin
Added last sentence

[Nantonoyama 252]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

64 for me, around 10th place I would guess...

How can you be that good?