Hatsu 2019 Sansho

[Yamanashi 3,843]

20 minutes ago, wys said:

Does anyone else find it odd that Takakeisho won the Gino-sho?  His repertoire is limited to blasting his opponents out of the dohyo or slapdowns. I wonder what was going through the committee members' minds when they awarded this to Takakeisho.

My thoughts too (would have given you a "Thanks", but reacticons seem to be harder to come by lately).

[Gurowake 4,053]

20 minutes ago, wys said:

Does anyone else find it odd that Takakeisho won the Gino-sho?  His repertoire is limited to blasting his opponents out of the dohyo or slapdowns. I wonder what was going through the committee members' minds when they awarded this to Takakeisho.

First, the Gino-Sho is not about variety of technique, it is about quality of technique.  Kotoshogiku won many Gino-Sho, and is the same one-trick-pony who was very very good at the trick.

Second, it's not even really about that, it's turned into what they give someone when they want to give someone a better sansho than the Kanto-Sho.

[Kishinoyama 595]

1 hour ago, wys said:

I  thought they would have given it to someone with some belt-game or at least kimarites that display some superior skills.

I agree with you. I personally don't like Takakeisho's style of sumo but it has worked for him, so far.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

7 hours ago, wys said:

Does anyone else find it odd that Takakeisho won the Gino-sho?  His repertoire is limited to blasting his opponents out of the dohyo or slapdowns. I wonder what was going through the committee members' minds when they awarded this to Takakeisho.

Can you name someone who does what he does better than him right now? I can’t. His style might not be the prettiest, but he finishes his bouts in three forward steps and shoves half the time. Look at how he smashed Okinoumi off the dohyo on day 14 to get his 11th win. Okinoumi barely had the chance to stand up, and that’s quite normal for a Takakeisho bout. He has mastered his particular technique.

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

14 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Second, it's not even really about that, it's turned into what they give someone when they want to give someone a better sansho than the Kanto-Sho.

Right, it's the kanto-sho for sanyaku dudes. It also means "he has at least one technique".

[Amamaniac 2,079]

On 28/01/2019 at 01:37, Eikokurai said:

Can you name someone who does what he does better than him right now? I can’t. His style might not be the prettiest, but he finishes his bouts in three forward steps and shoves half the time. Look at how he smashed Okinoumi off the dohyo on day 14 to get his 11th win. Okinoumi barely had the chance to stand up, and that’s quite normal for a Takakeisho bout. He has mastered his particular technique.

Don't get me wrong, because I agree with your assessment.  But I found it mildly amusing that the English commentator on day 15 made more or less the same observation about Takakeisho prior to the bout with Goeido.  What happened?  Goeido charged like he's never charged before, and before Takakeisho knew it, he was backing out of the ring rather than the repeatedly touted "he always moves forward ... never backs up".  Both Mitakeumi and Goeido were able to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses in this tournament, and get inside so that his thrusts are ineffective.  I only wonder why Hakuho didn't figure out that that is the best way to deal with the Sekiwake.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

41 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Don't get me wrong, because I agree with your assessment.  But I found it mildly amusing that the English commentator on day 15 made more or less the same observation about Takakeisho prior to the bout with Goeido.  What happened?  Goeido charged like he's never charged before, and before Takakeisho knew it, he was backing out of the ring rather than the repeatedly touted "he always moves forward ... never backs up".  Both Mitakeumi and Goeido were able to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses in this tournament, and get inside so that his thrusts are ineffective.  I only wonder why Hakuho didn't figure out that that is the best way to deal with the Sekiwake.

Haha, that’s true, though part of me wonders if Takakeisho’s head was really in that fight. He’d already missed out on the yusho and the Ozeki promotion talk had died down. I think Takakeisho lost that bout mentally.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Haha, that’s true, though part of me wonders if Takakeisho’s head was really in that fight. He’d already missed out on the yusho and the Ozeki promotion talk had died down. I think Takakeisho lost that bout mentally.

He certainly would have been more motivated to win against Goeido had Tamawashi lost against Endo.  The chance to force a play-off and possibly steal the championship would have been a major inspiration.  But that potential motivation turned into a big distraction when it failed to materialise.  

But I think Takakeisho should be able to get at least 10 wins in Osaka, and the promotion door will finally open.  The NSK can then pat themselves on the back and say they made the right decision.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Amamaniac

[wys 55]

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Don't get me wrong, because I agree with your assessment.  But I found it mildly amusing that the English commentator on day 15 made more or less the same observation about Takakeisho prior to the bout with Goeido.  What happened?  Goeido charged like he's never charged before, and before Takakeisho knew it, he was backing out of the ring rather than the repeatedly touted "he always moves forward ... never backs up".

Yeah, I don't know what happened there either. So uncharacteristic of Takakeisho to retreat and lose so badly. Pure speculation on my part but maybe his heart wasn't in it at that point, given that he had the jun yusho secured and knew he won't be promoted to ozeki. Why risk injury by going all out? But at the same time, this would contradict the dignity and honor of the sport by not doing one's best to win. I guess sometimes rikishis have to weigh those two countervailing considerations.

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Both Mitakeumi and Goeido were able to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses in this tournament, and get inside so that his thrusts are ineffective.  I only wonder why Hakuho didn't figure out that that is the best way to deal with the Sekiwake.

You're telling us that Mitakeumi and Goeido know something that Hakuho doesn't? I doubt Hakuho, who is probably the smartest and most intuitive guy in sumo, does not know how to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses. Also, in that bout, it seems that Hakuho was trying to get inside repeatedly and repeatedly failed to get a grip.  I think his loss is an indication of something else (heart, injury, mental lapse, nerves, confidence, etc.)?

[Amamaniac 2,079]

27 minutes ago, wys said:

You're telling us that Mitakeumi and Goeido know something that Hakuho doesn't? I doubt Hakuho, who is probably the smartest and most intuitive guy in sumo, does not know how to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses. Also, in that bout, it seems that Hakuho was trying to get inside repeatedly and repeatedly failed to get a grip.  I think his loss is an indication of something else (heart, injury, mental lapse, nerves, confidence, etc.)?

I share your high opinion of Hakuho, and agree that more than almost any other sumo wrestler (in history, I dare say), he knows his opponents usually better than they know themselves.  

But Hakuho didn't do what Mitakeumi and Goeido did: i.e., get inside (trying to get inside doesn't count - every yotsu opponent tries to get inside).  Frankly, I think Takakeisho played it super smart at the soken just prior to the tournament.  He fought Hakuho on the mawashi, and needless to say, Hakuho won every bout.  He never allowed Hakuho to deal/familiarize himself with Takakeisho's brand of sumo, so not only did Hakuho not get a taste of what was to come, he was also overconfident after beating the Sekiwake repeatedly IMHO.

We can point to possible injury, but I think Hakuho just did not have enough time to prepare for the tournament after his surgery.  And for Hakuho, preparation means not only peaking physically, but also doing plenty of degeiko to feel out his potential rivals.

[Gurowake 4,053]

18 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Frankly, I think Takakeisho played it super smart at the soken just prior to the tournament.  He fought Hakuho on the mawashi, and needless to say, Hakuho won every bout.  He never allowed Hakuho to deal/familiarize himself with Takakeisho's brand of sumo, so not only did Hakuho not get a taste of what was to come, he was also overconfident after beating the Sekiwake repeatedly IMHO.

It's stuff like this that really makes me question whether training with rikishi that you will likely meet in competition is meaningful at all.

[Shinrei 47]

4 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

But I think Takakeisho should be able to get at least 10 wins in Osaka, and the promotion door will finally open.

With 10-5, I think the door will stay closed because it won't matter who those losses are against. 11-4, with no more than two of those losses against opponents of higher rank and I think then the door will open.

[robnplunder 975]

On 27/01/2019 at 09:10, Gurowake said:

First, the Gino-Sho is not about variety of technique, it is about quality of technique.  Kotoshogiku won many Gino-Sho, and is the same one-trick-pony who was very very good at the trick.

Quality over quantity ... I can understand that.    It's interesting to see if Takakeisho can fine tune his trick even more.  

On 27/01/2019 at 09:10, Gurowake said:

Second, it's not even really about that, it's turned into what they give someone when they want to give someone a better sansho than the Kanto-Sho.

I felt that Sansho decisions were kind of random at best .

[Amamaniac 2,079]

2 hours ago, Shinrei said:

With 10-5, I think the door will stay closed because it won't matter who those losses are against. 11-4, with no more than two of those losses against opponents of higher rank and I think then the door will open.

Yes indeed, 11 wins would definitely cinch the deal, and the more impressive the wins (opponent wise) the more convincing the case for promotion.  But I still feel that 10 wins should be enough.  His win total in three successive tournaments will be 34 at that point, and it would be more difficult to refuse promotion.  Apparently, the standard 33 wins still carries considerable wiggle room.  I'm not so sure the same can be said about 34 wins.  It would be interesting if there were a case in history where a wrestler with 34 wins and double digits in each of three successive tournaments was refused promotion.  Somehow I doubt there is.

My impression is that Takakeisho getting passed over this time was, at a basic level, due to the fact that he had a single-digit record in September.  Consistent double-digit-win records are what is expected for Ozekis, and a 10 should be enough.

Let's see how Takakeisho does in Osaka first.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Amamaniac

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

I'd submit that 12 would be pretty safe, while certain 11 scenarios without many Ozeki/Yokozuna scalps and/or with fusen-sho and/or shaky/crappy sumo might not be enough. 10 would certainly not do.

[Shinrei 47]

54 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

My impression is that Takakeisho getting passed over this time was, at a basic level, due to the fact that he had a single-digit record in September.

Though he won vs Hakuho and Tamawashi, he lost vs both remaining Ozeki - and gave little resistance to Goeido in that bout.

I also wonder if, and how much, their perception of Takakeisho's maturity and hinkaku factor in.

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

Yes indeed, 11 wins would definitely cinch the deal, and the more impressive the wins (opponent wise) the more convincing the case for promotion.  But I still feel that 10 wins should be enough.  His win total in three successive tournaments will be 34 at that point, and it would be more difficult to refuse promotion.  Apparently, the standard 33 wins still carries considerable wiggle room.  I'm not so sure the same can be said about 34 wins.  It would be interesting if there were a case in history where a wrestler with 34 wins and double digits in each of three successive tournaments was refused promotion.  Somehow I doubt there is.

My impression is that Takakeisho getting passed over this time was, at a basic level, due to the fact that he had a single-digit record in September.  Consistent double-digit-win records are what is expected for Ozekis, and a 10 should be enough.

Let's see how Takakeisho does in Osaka first.

Let’s not forget that he lost to both the ozeki, Mitakeumi, and Tochiozan, who all finished with less than spectacular records compared to him. And he didn’t just lose those matches, he never was in control.

[wys 55]

13 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I share your high opinion of Hakuho, and agree that more than almost any other sumo wrestler (in history, I dare say), he knows his opponents usually better than they know themselves.  

But Hakuho didn't do what Mitakeumi and Goeido did: i.e., get inside (trying to get inside doesn't count - every yotsu opponent tries to get inside).

Understood. I agree that Hakuho failed to get inside (and stated as such). But your original claim was not that he failed to get inside but that Hakuho didn't know that getting inside is supposedly the best strategy ("Hakuho didn't figure out that that is the best way to deal with the Sekiwake") and that's what I was responding to, i.e.,  your claim about his epistemological state during the bout.

Edited January 30, 2019 by wys

[itchyknee 60]

9 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

It would be interesting if there were a case in history where a wrestler with 34 wins and double digits in each of three successive tournaments was refused promotion.  Somehow I doubt there is.

		1			2			3			4		
Rikishi		Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record

Miyabiyama	2006.03	K1w	10-5	2006.05	S1w	14-1 D	2006.07	S1e	10-5	2006.09	S1e	9-6

One of those last wins was a fusen.

It happened a couple of times where the first 10+ result was from the joi:

Terukuni

1940.01

M2e

12-3 J

1940.05

S2eHD

11-4

1941.01

S1w

12-3

1941.05

S1w

13-2 J

Wakanohana

1993.01

M3e

10-5

1993.03

K1e

14-1 Y

1993.05

S1w

10-5

1993.07

S1e

13-2 D

Edited January 30, 2019 by itchyknee
edit

[Amamaniac 2,079]

6 hours ago, itchyknee said:

		1			2			3			4		
Rikishi		Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record	Date	Rank	Record

Miyabiyama	2006.03	K1w	10-5	2006.05	S1w	14-1 D	2006.07	S1e	10-5	2006.09	S1e	9-6

One of those last wins was a fusen.

My takeaway is that fusen wins don't count, and not being Sekiwake in all three tournaments is cause to hold off promotion barring exceptional performances.  But of course, it is quite a bit more complicated than that.  And to think that Kisenosato secured his Ozeki promotion with just 32 wins (but he was ranked Sekiwake throughout the timeframe and had no fusensho) ...

[Washuyama 641]

15 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

And to think that Kisenosato secured his Ozeki promotion with just 32 wins (but he was ranked Sekiwake throughout the timeframe and had no fusensho) ...

And THAT caused a lot of controversy in this forum back then.

[wys 55]

I'm firmly in the camp that 10 wins in the next basho alone won't guarantee Takakeisho a promotion. The 33 wins I feel has been overemphasized in these discussions. It has never been a sufficient nor necessary condition to ozeki promotion. Even 11 wins in Osaka won't guarantee promotion if he fails against the higher-ranked guys, as someone else has mentioned. At this point, I feel like more experienced rikishis like Takayasu, Mitakeumi, and Goeido have already been able to exploit Takakeisho's weaknesses. Everyone has weaknesses and I think Takakeisho's are more glaring because of his limited repertoire.  I also believe that it is faster to reach the limits of one's oshi-zumo and I wonder how much farther Takakeisho can advance his style of sumo to consistently challenge the higher-ranked guys. Don't get me wrong: Takakeisho has other great qualities such as his mental toughness, drive, quick reaction,  intuition, and agility. And I think he will be promoted to ozeki at some point in his career. But I am anticipating with baited breath his performance in the next basho because, barring any injuries from the top guys, I don't yet feel he has close to a 50% chance of beating them.  

Open question to you all. What you do think Takakeisho can do to advance his sumo? For example, continue focusing on his oshi-zumo or add some other techniques in there. If the latter, which ones?

[Amamaniac 2,079]

I apologise, Fukurou, for my part in taking this thread (Hatsu 2019 Sansho) off topic.  Perhaps the discussion about Takakeisho's promotion chances etc could revert to Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion or be part of a completely new thread.  Just a thought.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Amamaniac