Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2019

[Rocks 1,809]

What a mess in lower makucchi! Outside of Terut and Ikioi facing each other all the rest could lose Day 15. Could Chiyoshoma stay even with a loss? Probably not. Well if everyone loses I wonder if they will just drop the lot along with Chiyonkuni and Terut/Ikoi loser and promote everybody with a KK above J7 in Juryo and be done with it. 

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

Terut? Really?? And here I thought Hak and Kak were bad enough...

[Gurowake 4,052]

I don't think there are going to be 3 Sekiwake for Natsu regardless of what happens.  The 13/14 wins in the joi -> 3rd Sekiwake thing that comes up very rarely should only really apply to actual full joi schedules.  Ichinojo may well end up as mere Komusubi if Takakeisho wins and isn't promoted.  If he had faced Kakuryu and Hakuho and come out with 13 wins, then sure, but that didn't happen.  A potential yusho I doubt would make a difference, as playoffs very rarely ever matter for banzuke purposes; I believe the only case is ranking among Yokozuna, and that wasn't even always true.  Besides, the order of ranking Yokozuna is of no real consequence except to GTB, while being Sekiwake gives you a better cushion to fall from when demoted compared to Komusubi.

As to why Takayasu and Kotoshogiku were both Sekiwake as well as the returning Tamawashi back after Kotoshogiku's demotion: while it looks like Kotoshogiku is the 3rd Sekiwake there, it's really Takayasu.  His 11 wins at Komusubi forced a 3rd Sekiwake slot.  Kotoshogiku was ranked last among them because he was coming off demotion.  An 11 win Komusubi happening at the same time as a demoted Ozeki and a KK Sekiwake isn't going to come up very often, but what they did makes sense.  Terunofuji's demotion created a 3rd Sekiwake since both incumbent ones were KK, while Kotooshu's demotion did not lead to a 3rd Sekiwake (although Tochiozan's 11 wins and KKs by the two Sekiwake led to a 3rd Sekiwake in the next basho).  We've seen plenty of 3-Sekiwake tournaments since the last 3+Komusubi one simply because there are two ways that they "have to" create a 3rd Sekiwake that happen occasionally, both of which are mentioned previously this paragraph, while the corresponding needed record for forcing Komusubi spot is completely unknown and borders on impossible given recent decisions.  My guess is if they decide a record is good enough to force another sanyaku spot, it's good enough for Sekiwake promotion, and that we'll never see 3 Komusubi again (or at least within this generation of oyakata).

Edited March 23, 2019 by Gurowake

[robnplunder 975]

39 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Terut? Really?? And here I thought Hak and Kak were bad enough...

Hak, Kak, Taka (could be any one of dozen), Yoshi, Ichi, Ishi, Toyo, Mita, Yuta, ..., many shinkona just beg to be shortened.  

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

9 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Hak, Kak, Taka (could be any one of dozen), Yoshi, Ichi, Ishi, Toyo, Mita, Yuta, ..., many shinkona just beg to be shortened.  

The problem with 'terut' is that it mangles the Japanese really badly.  The 'ts' are a single sound, and part of the syllable forming 'tsu', not the vowel before.  (This is also the complaint with Hak and Kak, but that's much less bad.)

[botev1921 33]

4 hours ago, Rigel said:

I got a question for the banzuke experts, we all know that when an Ozeki is demoted with 2 Sekiwake already there, then they will create a 3rd sekiwake slot, but what conditions have to exist for them to create a 3rd slot for a promotion?

Specifically, if Takakeisho wins but is somehow denied a promotion (unlikely but lets run with it), and Tochinoshin gets pushed down, would a 14-1 jun-yusho do it to create a 3rd slot for Ichinojo?

And more generally, what in the abstract do you think has to happen for a promotee to force a 3rd sekiwake or komosubi slot?

I would say the match-up tomorrow seals the deal for either Takakeisho or Tochinoshin staying put or trading positions. Takakeisho win and no Ozeki would be a robbery as he deserves it on paper even with 9 wins (33 wins in total over last 3, yusho...come on, they promoted Kisenosato with less achieved over 3 basho). They might as well promote him regardless and open two sakiwake spots. If that happens, I think it is pretty clear Ichinojo and Aoiyama take the spots with Kotoshogiku moving to komosubi and Mitakeumi moving west (with a win).

Edited March 23, 2019 by botev1921

[robnplunder 975]

54 minutes ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

The problem with 'terut' is that it mangles the Japanese really badly.  The 'ts' are a single sound, and part of the syllable forming 'tsu', not the vowel before.  (This is also the complaint with Hak and Kak, but that's much less bad.)

Japanese is mangled the minute when written with English alphabet.  They have too many sounds that alphabet can't accurately describe and vice versa.  

 

Back to the topic, is there realistic scenario of Mita keeping Komusubi rank with 7-8 finish?

Edited March 24, 2019 by robnplunder

[Gurowake 4,052]

9 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Back to the topic, is there realistic scenario of Mita keeping Komusubi rank with 7-8 finish?

It's a good bet if Daieisho and Kotoshogiku lose.  Probably not if either of them win.

edit: Oh, this assumes Takakeisho wins and isn't promoted.  If either he or Tochinoshin are Ozeki, it becomes much more likely and thus would occur so long as one of the two maegashira mentioned loses, but the previous assumption is my feeling for what will happen.  (I *want* Tochinoshin to win, but I think it's a significantly less than 50% chance.)

Edited March 24, 2019 by Gurowake

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,269]

Scheduling Hakuho with Tochiozan instead of Ichinojo just feels so bad now. Any fan would love to see that matchup now on a mythical day 14.5. Well, I guess we'll see.

[Rocks 1,809]

5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Terut? Really?? And here I thought Hak and Kak were bad enough...

I just get tired of typing it all out.  Why can't these guys stick to names like Abi or something?

[Gurowake 4,052]

2 hours ago, Rocks said:

I just get tired of typing it all out.  Why can't these guys stick to names like Abi or something?

Abi feelin ya on that one mon.  "Abi" is the one of the few Makuuchi rikishi names so short I don't add it to Firefox's dictionary as I can tell if it's spelled right easily enough.  Yago's the other.

[Gurowake 4,052]

With Wakamototakaharukage and Takayoshinofujitoshigenji losing, the only overdemotion we might see is Akiseyama for Fujiazuma, which is unlikely IMO.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Gurowake

[robnplunder 975]

40 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Abi feelin ya on that one mon.  "Abi" is the one of the few Makuuchi rikishi names so short I don't add it to Firefox's dictionary as I can tell if it's spelled right easily enough.  Yago's the other.

Ura right. 

[lackmaker 437]

5 hours ago, Rocks said:

I just get tired of typing it all out.  Why can't these guys stick to names like Abi or something?

Guess if you're that tired you could write your posts in text speak and upset a few more people.☺

[YoungSumo 93]

I think its fair to say Takakeisho did enough for the promotion this time. If he's not promoted now he probably never will. He got double digit wins, 34 over 3 basho and straight up beat Tochinoshin for his spot here with confidence. Tochinoshin and Ichinojo sekiwake, Aoiyama definitely has one komusubi spot. Will be interesting to see if they go with Mitakeumi or Kotoshogiku for the K1w spot though.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 hour ago, YoungSumo said:

I think its fair to say Takakeisho did enough for the promotion this time. If he's not promoted now he probably never will. He got double digit wins, 34 over 3 basho and straight up beat Tochinoshin for his spot here with confidence. Tochinoshin and Ichinojo sekiwake, Aoiyama definitely has one komusubi spot. Will be interesting to see if they go with Mitakeumi or Kotoshogiku for the K1w spot though.

It’s already being reported as confirmed.

RE: Kotoshogiku possibly returning to sanyaku. For someone like him, it’s arguably better not to. As an ex-Ozeki, making an appearance at Komusubi or Sekiwake doesn’t carry much significance, while being in the joi means he gets a shot at kinboshi.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Eikokurai

[Asashosakari 19,320]

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

RE: Kotoshogiku possibly returning to sanyaku. For someone like him, it’s arguably better not to. As an ex-Ozeki, making an appearance at Komusubi or Sekiwake doesn’t carry much significance, while being in the joi means he gets a shot at kinboshi.

...which only pays for the very low amount of time he'll have left in his career. One sanyaku basho extra salary = 20 basho kinboshi bonus. Given that a kinboshi would actually need to be won first to be worth anything at all, I dare say it's obvious where the greater value is.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Andonishiki 170]

i wud probably go for 4 demotions only,

Cnkuni, Yyama, Cshoma and Ikioi...

leaving Toyonoshima in as a courtesy for age and historic achievements... e.g. ketteisen in Kyushu 2010, lost vs Hakuho

Edited March 24, 2019 by Andonishiki

[Andonishiki 170]

also taking into account that 8-7 Takagenji as J4e is ex-Takanohana beya

[Eikokurai 3,437]

13 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

...which only pays for the very low amount of time he'll have left in his career. One sanyaku basho extra salary = 20 basho kinboshi bonus. Given that a kinboshi would actually need to be won first to be worth anything at all, I dare say it's obvious where the greater value is.

True.

[Gurowake 4,052]

I was counting very poorly when I talked about Mitakeumi's chances of staying on as Komusubi, as no promotion for Takakeisho would mean there would be no room after promoting Ichinojo and Aoiyama.  Fortunately for him, all the bouts I mentioned went the right way, and if Takakeisho's promotion does go through that means the choice for the west Komusubi comes down to Mitakeumi and Kotoshogiku, and I'm pretty sure Mitakeumi gets the nod there.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo:

I'm seeing Chiyonokuni, Yutakayama, Toyonoshima, and Ikioi down for Shimanoumi, Chiyomaru, Enho, and Tokushoryu.  I think Ikioi has a much weaker claim on the last spot in the division than Chiyoshoma or Ishiura.  I also don't see them going with Takagenji to displace either of the last two.  The bottom of Makuuchi is going to be packed with guys just barely not demoted and guys barely earning a promotion - some of them will get some pretty good luck.

[Shatsume 118]

About the only safe bet down there I reckon is that chiyoshoma is staying exactly where he is!! 

[ryafuji 814]

10 minutes ago, Shatsume said:

About the only safe bet down there I reckon is that chiyoshoma is staying exactly where he is!! 

How can Chiyoshoma survive with an MK at M17? 

[Shatsume 118]

1 minute ago, ryafuji said:

How can Chiyoshoma survive with an MK at M17? 

At least 4 (plus ishiura) more likely demotion candidates and only 4 realistic promotion candidates. That's how I see it, I could of course be very very wrong. 

[ryafuji 814]

If he got a make koshi at the bottom makuuchi rank he deserves to go in my opinion - they must be able to find someone to replace him. I guess he could stay at M17 but he would be very lucky.