Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Haru 2019

[lackmaker 437]

4 hours ago, Sakura said:

There would only be a M17w if Takakeisho doesn't get promoted.

Unless they created a third sekiwake slot?

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

34 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Unless they created a third sekiwake slot?

Then there wouldn't be either slot at M17.

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

1 hour ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Then there wouldn't be either slot at M17. 

You missed the assumption that "Takakeisho doesn't get promoted" above.

[Rainoyama 1,157]

With many rikishi with a 7-8 MK the joi ranks shouldn't change much.

[Akinomaki 40,508]

Shimanoumi with yusho from the top juryo position will go too high into makuuchi to have a chance at a sansho on makuuchi debut - 10 wins - or for while even more - required. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&sum_wins=13&sum_range=1&form1_rank=j1&form2_m=on&form2_debutd=on

Edited March 26, 2019 by Akinomaki

[Nantonoyama 252]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Shimanoumi with yusho from the top juryo position will go too high into makuuchi to have a chance at a sansho on makuuchi debut - 10 wins - or for while even more - required. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&sum_wins=13&sum_range=1&form1_rank=j1&form2_m=on&form2_debutd=on

In this list, two 9-6 (Miyabiyama and Daiju) were awarded sansho, and had to face multiple sanyaku, even an Ozeki (!) for Miyabiyama.

But yes, I do think it will be more difficult to get the 10-5 automatic kanto-sho for rookies

[Rocks 1,809]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Shimanoumi with yusho from the top juryo position will go too high into makuuchi to have a chance at a sansho on makuuchi debut - 10 wins - or for while even more - required. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&sum_wins=13&sum_range=1&form1_rank=j1&form2_m=on&form2_debutd=on

You mean because you think he will be so high he won't get 10 wins?

[robnplunder 975]

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Shimanoumi with yusho from the top juryo position will go too high into makuuchi to have a chance at a sansho on makuuchi debut - 10 wins - or for while even more - required. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&sum_wins=13&sum_range=1&form1_rank=j1&form2_m=on&form2_debutd=on

I think he will go KK and be happy with that for his debut.  10 wins will be difficult (but possible) given that he will face many mid-Makuuchi rikishi.   I will predict 10-5 for his debut for what it is worth. 

[wys 55]

On 24/03/2019 at 22:02, robnplunder said:

I think some folks here are underestimating/underrating Takakeisho.  So did I.  But even with having one dimensional style, if it is highly effective enough to be an Ozeki, so be it.

IMO, he should have been an Ozeki in this basho.   The powers to be made him wait and Taka proved them wrong.   And those who keep having doubts based on Taka's past record, he has been better than 3 ozekis in the last 5 bashos, facing the similar competition.   In fact, he has the most wins, more than any Ozeki in that span.

It is moot now since Takakeisho has been promoted already but it is silly to say that Takakeisho proved the JSA wrong. The powers that be could only go by the information they had at the time and they made the correct decision not to promote him in January. It still remains to be seen whether Takakeisho will be a strong ozeki. Don't get me wrong; I am a huge Takakeisho fan. But you can throw all the statistics you like at me, many of which are irrelevant to ozeki promotion, and I still believe that his lack of a belt-game is a glaring weakness. Other than Tochinoshin, the other two ozekis have Takakeisho's number. Not to mention Mitakeumi, who has consistently dominated him. 

[word20 21]

An article about the promotion of Takakeisho to ozeki

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/201903270000179.html

[Churaumi 743]

I think Shimanoumi will have a decent go of it in May. Juryo can’t compete with him and the low end of makuuchi is going to be less competitive than that. They are going to be older, smaller, and more broken than juryo. I doubt he’ll get more than 10 wins, but he’ll do fine.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

To close things out here, the final ex-sekitori results.

new KK: Fujiazuma, Toyohibiki, Gokushindo, Asahisho, Masunoyama

new MK: Jokoryu, Akua, Nionoumi, Yoshiazuma, Hitenryu
 

Record	Rank	Shikona	Heya	Age	Out	HiRk	M#	J#
4-3	Ms2e	Fujiazuma	Tamanoi	31	12	M4	17	18
3-4	Ms3e	Jokoryu	Kise	30	1	K	15	13
6-1	Ms3w	Seiro	Shikoroyama	30	3	M14	3	29
7-0 Y	Ms5e	Churanoumi	Kise	25	4	J14		1
1-6	Ms6w	Tokushinho	Kise	34	20	J6		27
4-3	Ms9e	Kizenryu	Kise	33	4	J11		9
1-3-3	Ms9w	Dewahayate	Dewanoumi	30	16	J9		6
2-5	Ms10e	Sagatsukasa	Irumagawa	37	30	M9	6	22
3-4	Ms11e	Akua	Tatsunami	28	3	J14		2
4-3	Ms11w	Toyohibiki	Sakaigawa	34	7	M2	52	14
3-4	Ms12w	Sakigake	Shibatayama	32	25	J10		5
3-4	Ms13w	Asabenkei	Takasago	30	5	J7		7
2-5	Ms18e	Tochihiryu	Kasugano	31	7	J7		9
4-3	Ms20e	Gokushindo	Nishikido	22	2	J13		1
4-3	Ms23w	Asahisho	Tomozuna	29	11	M11	4	30
2-4-1	Ms25w	Kagamio	Kagamiyama	31	17	M9	7	14
6-1	Ms26e	Chiyootori	Kokonoe	26	8	K	19	16
3-4	Ms29e	Nionoumi	Yamahibiki	32	34	M16	1	12
5-2	Ms30w	Kitaharima	Yamahibiki	32	9	M15	1	24
2-5	Ms34w	Higonojo	Kise	34	29	J9		4
2-5	Ms35w	Chiyonoo	Kokonoe	27	2	M15	2	31
kyujo	Ms36w	Ura	Kise	26	7	M4	5	6
3-4	Ms40e	Keitenkai	Onomatsu	29	39	J11		1
5-2	Ms41w	Takaryu	Kise	27	22	J13		1
5-2	Ms50e	Chiyoarashi	Kokonoe	27	34	J10		4
4-3	Ms52w	Tenkaiho	Onoe	34	17	M8	7	22
4-3	Ms57e	Masunoyama	Chiganoura	28	24	M4	13	12
2-5	Sd3e	Kaonishiki	Azumazeki	40	45	J6		2
1-6	Sd7w	Dairaido	Takadagawa	38	75	J2		6
kyujo	Sd17e	Homarefuji	Isegahama	33	4	M6	10	28
4-3	Sd34e	Yamaguchi	Miyagino	29	7	M16	1	18
3-4	Sd35w	Yoshiazuma	Tamanoi	41	27	M12	3	18
3-4	Sd50e	Hitenryu	Tatsunami	34	45	J13		2
7-0 D	Jd48w	Terunofuji	Isegahama	27	5	O	24	5
6-1	Jd50w	Amakaze	Oguruma	27	6	M13	1	18

Hitenryu is reportedly retiring to take on a wakaimonogashira position, but as his intai hasn't been announced officially yet he'll (probably) be listed on the next rankings.

The next banzuke may have even fewer than four former sekitori in the top 5 makushita promotion zone.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

A quick juryo banzuke guess for Natsu:

Toyonoshima (M14w 5-10)   J1   Ikioi (M9w 2-13)
Takagenji (J4e 8-7)       J2   Wakatakakage (J5e 8-7)
Kyokushuho (J6e 8-7)      J3   Takanosho (J13e 11-4)
Daiamami (J3w 7-8)        J4   Azumaryu (J7e 8-7)
Sokokurai (J7w 8-7)       J5   Kotoyuki (J2e 5-10)
Hidenoumi (J10e 9-6)      J6   Gagamaru (J8e 8-7)
Yutakayama (M16w 3-12)    J7   Kyokutaisei (J9e 8-7)
Chiyonokuni (M12e 0-0-15) J8   Daishomaru (J5w 6-9)
Mitoryu (J12e 9-6)        J9   Chiyonoumi (J8w 7-8)
Tsurugisho (J6w 6-9)      J10  Aminishiki (J11w 8-7)
Kiribayama (J14w 9-6)     J11  Arawashi (J12w 8-7)
Tobizaru (J11e 7-8)       J12  Hakuyozan (J3e 3-7-5)
Churanoumi (Ms5e 7-0 Y)   J13  Irodori (Ms1e 5-2)
Seiro (Ms3w 6-1)          J14  Akiseyama (J9w 5-10)

[Bumpkin 438]

M17e Chiyoshoma (7-8) stays in Makuuchi?

Now THAT'S banzuke luck!

[ryafuji 814]

1 hour ago, Bumpkin said:

M17e Chiyoshoma (7-8) stays in Makuuchi?

Now THAT'S banzuke luck!

Yeah, seems he may well stay at 17E as Toyonoshima and Ikioi both did too badly to stay ahead of him, and Takagenji didn’t do enough. 

[Kintamayama 45,132]

8 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Yeah, seems he may well stay at 17E as Toyonoshima and Ikioi both did too badly to stay ahead of him, and Takagenji didn’t do enough. 

I have a feeling Ikioi will be favored over Chiyoshouma.

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

1 minute ago, Kintamayama said:

I have a feeling Ikioi will be favored over Chiyoshouma.

I say both go down in favour of Takagenji.

[Gooner 39]

On 26/03/2019 at 00:56, Asashosakari said:

Roga ought to be moving up high enough into sandanme that 5 wins will be sufficient to secure a makushita promotion for the July basho. He should have a good shot at achieving that, but contending for the sandanme yusho will probably be a bit much to ask.

Why?

(Just interested in your opinion)

[Asashosakari 19,331]

1 hour ago, Gooner said:

Why?

(Just interested in your opinion)

The upper quarter of sandanme is full of rikishi with makushita experience (and often lots of it), and it's a huge step up even from lower sandanme, let alone upper jonidan. Basically it's where you start facing mostly opponents who aren't just "in sumo", but actually have (or had) a credible career already, with commensurate physical and technical skills. Lots of talented and semi-talented rikishi end up needing quite a while to break through that zone, and even elite high schoolers usually aren't experienced enough to just walk through. A cherry-picked example, but since he's on people's minds right now: Takakeisho saw his own undefeated streak last only one more bout there.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Rocks 1,809]

On 29/03/2019 at 05:35, Jakusotsu said:

I say both go down in favour of Takagenji.

I agree. I think normally Ikioi would definitely get some banzuke luck but given the state of his injuries the farther down the banzuke they put him, and the weaker the opponents, would be his best chance for finishing the basho which seems to be his main goal.