Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2019

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

11 minutes ago, Flohru said:

The main question imo is not whether they would be willing to not promote Abi to Sekiwake (they sure would), but whether they are willing to deny Hokutofuji a sanyaku spot...

Tamawashi and Tochinoshin say yes, they would.

[Flohru 176]

True, but then again in your two cases the rest of the joi was pretty easy to arrange while this time it is going to be a mess even if they decide to promote Hokutofuji. :) Not sure if this is taken into account, however (possibly it is not); I am looking forward to Pierre's final assessment!

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

44 minutes ago, Flohru said:

 

The main question imo is not whether they would be willing to not promote Abi to Sekiwake (they sure would), but whether they are willing to deny Hokutofuji a sanyaku spot...

I disagree. The main question is whether the demotion of an Ozeki is considered to be somewhat subordinate to the regular banzuke movements. Meaning: Is there a free slot AFTER doing the "normal" movements?* Then: either S2 or not.

Ozeki demotions are rare, therefore you cannot find a constellation like ours here in the last 20 years (with the key ingredient that a K1e had KK, thus virtually competing with a Demozeki for one free slot). There were tough underpromotions in the past in Demozeki circumstances, but there was always an available slot to promote to in between.

Anyhow, the whole "They don't do the extra slots anymore" notion is biased by the lack of exposure. It is and always was** a rare thing, at least if you stick to the last 40 years. There were clusters of basho with a few extra slots, but this was always in times of turmoil like combinations of Ozeki promotions/demotions and general change of guard at the top.

Customer information: You can very easily assess the frequency and exceptional clusters with my graph and start to explore the details using the Doitsubase from there.

 

*Which is not well put, on second thought. Should be rather some pingpong process: "If we demote him to S1, can we still squeeze the other suckers UP somewhere?"

**While I would admit that during the 90s they seemed to at least show some signs of "opening up".

Edited July 22, 2019 by yorikiried by fate
Clearer thinking and second fact check

[Tiger Tanaka 225]

The last time there was an extra S slot was when Kotoshogiku got demoted in March 2017 I believe. In that case, Tamawashi had a KK as Sekiwake in January and Takayasu had an 11-4 record at K1e to give him the bump to Sekiwake. Kotoshogiku slotted in as S2e. 8-7 for Abi doesn't seem to have similar circumstances.

Mitakeumi was 9-6 that March at K1e and did not get a bump to Sekiwake but stayed as is because Kotoshogiku managed a 9-6 record at ozekiwake and thus did not earn his promotion back to O, but stayed at S.

I think 11 wins from the next banzuke rank down would be needed to force an extra spot above, which neither Abi nor Hokuto got close to.  

[ALAKTORN 346]

8–7 is nowhere near good enough for an extra Sekiwake slot.

[lackmaker 437]

There is surely no magic number of wins(9,10,11) that would be needed to force an extra sekiwake spot. Other factors will be the numbers of the current sekiwake, the other komusubi and whether an ozekiwake will be on the next banzuke. There might be a minimum, hard to imagine that's 8. 

[Andreas21 184]

5 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

Takakeisho needs to be ranked Sekiwake next basho. One slot is taken by Mitakeumi, the other one claimed by a 8-7 Ke1 (Abi). Therefore, another Sekiwake spot will be created for Takakeisho. The two vacated Komusubi slots are for Endo and Hokutofuji.

Exactly my thoughts. The extra Sekiwake spot is forced by Takakeisho, not Abi. Extra lower Sanyaku spots are rarely created for scores less than 11 but regularly for demoted Ozeki.

Disclaimer: the Banzuke committee may and will decide as they please!

[Flohru 176]

42 minutes ago, Andreas21 said:

Extra lower Sanyaku spots are rarely created for scores less than 11 but regularly for demoted Ozeki.

The problem is that there is not a single more recent case to prove that claim. After looking at all (11) cases of extra Sekiwake slots created for demoted Ozeki after 1980: There were always one, two or three kk Sekiwake and/or a Komusubi/joi rikishi with double digit wins (only once less than 11) involved. In 10 of the 11 cases there could have been no argument at all about the need of an extra Sekiwake slot, while the only closer call was Musoyama (K1e, 10-5) being promoted to a fourth Sekiwake position on the Hatsu 2000 banzuke that already saw two incumbent Sekiwake and Takanonami being demoted from Ozeki. But then a 10-5 is still way better than a 8-7..

Edited July 22, 2019 by Flohru

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

...and as I said before: extra sanyaku slots cost a considerable amount of money in the long run, especially when young guys like Abi are involved. (Who would have probably turned out to be a one-time-komusubi if it wasn't for that henka, but that's another story...)

[botev1921 33]

Not that I often get these correct, but it would only be fair (or at least not too unfair towards anyone) for this to happen:

Mitakeumi S Takakeisho

Abi K Endo

Hokutofuji M1 Aoiyama

Asanoyama M2 Ichinojo

Daieisho M3 Tomokaze

 

To me the bigger question is will Shimanoumi be stuck at M5 or even just move from West to East to accomodate Tamawashi and Ryuden not being overdemoted. What is the biggest demotion from sanyaku with 4-5 wins since right now all the likes of Shimanoumi, Miogiryu and Chiyotairyu should probably be deserving a higher slot than Ryuden.

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by botev1921

[dingo 1,263]

I tend to agree that Abi won't get to sekiwake with his score. There's already two automatic sekiwake, whereas Abi's result is not really an automatic promotion. 

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 15 (results, text-only results)

14-1 Ye Kakuryu

13-2 ---

12-3 Yw Hakuho, M16w Terutsuyoshi

    14-1  Kakuryu       Y    Hakuho       12-3
    3-5-7 Goeido        O1   Takayasu     8-3-4
(x) kyujo Takakeisho    O2   Tochinoshin  0-6-9

The two yokozuna gave the assembled audience their money's worth in the musubi no ichiban, with a lengthy battle in which Kakuryu nevertheless always seemed to be a step ahead of Hakuho, and ultimately prevailed in decisive fashion. It's Kakuryu's 6th top division yusho, and he has now won championships in all four honbasho venues (and only needs January to complete the basho set, too). Hakuho had to settle for the runner-up position, and in fact it's his first jun-yusho in two and a half years - but of course he's had seven yusho in between.

Also a 12-3 runner-up: Terutsuyoshi, who won almost too easily on senshuraku against fellow surprise package Tomokaze. It's the first jun-yusho from the very last spot on the makuuchi banzuke since Toyohibiki did it almost 10 years ago. For his efforts in Nagoya Terutsuyoshi was also awarded a kanto-sho special prize - not bad for somebody who arguably deserved to be demoted two months ago and only hung on through a lucky banzuke constellation. Next basho should see him at a maegashira rank high enough that he won't be facing most of the double-digit guys, so things will be quite a bit tougher. And, of course, other rikishi are warned now.

Other sansho went to Tomokaze, a shukun-sho for his excellent performance in general and the kinboshi over champion Kakuryu in particular, and to Endo and Enho who both received the gino-sho. Endo's is arguably the now-standard "we need to give the joi guy something more prestigious than the kanto-sho" award, but it's refreshing to see the other one to Enho actually get awarded on technical merit. For those worried that he's going to amass a bunch of ill-gotten prizes in the future, I'm reasonably sure the sansho committee has got it out of their system now and they won't just give him one anytime he's kachikoshi.

Endo was also one of two other big winners on the dohyo on senshuraku after he survived a nearly impossible position against Hokutofuji, eventually decided their match in his favour and took over #1 priority for sanyaku promotions. That became crucial a few bouts later when Abi decided to put aside opponent Kotoshogiku with the smart-but-lame henka to secure his last-minute kachikoshi and continued presence in sanyaku. He's almost certainly not joining sekiwake incumbent Mitakeumi, however, who himself finished the basho on a (somewhat) high note with his 9th win against Shimanoumi, an easily attained victory.

     9-6  Mitakeumi     S    Tamawashi     5-10 (x)
     8-7  Abi           K    Ryuden        4-11 (x)

                        M1   Hokutofuji    9-6
     8-7  Aoiyama       M2   Endo         10-5  (o)
                        M3   Daieisho      8-7
                        M4   Ichinojo      9-6
                        M5
                        M6
                        M7   Tomokaze     11-4

My expectations are in line with the recent and not so recent trends - that is, no promotion to sekiwake for Abi because 8 wins just don't cut it to force an extra slot, and no promotion to komusubi for Hokutofuji, because that's how they roll these days. It's already the second time he would miss out unluckily, following a M3w 11-4 -> M1e move after Kyushu 2017. Endo for his part will be in sanyaku for the second time after Natsu 2018, hopefully with a better result than the injury-marred 3-10-2 record he posted back then.

Of the three lower maegashira on the bubble, only one was successful on Day 15: Tochiozan weathered Shohozan's tsuppari barrage briefly and then quickly ousted him from the dohyo for his potentially crucial 5th win. Chiyomaru and Takagenji both lost easily, and find themselves below Tochiozan in the final demotion queue accounting. 10 losses for Takagenji from 4-1...

The juryo division results saw a pair of rikishi secure their returns to the top division at the finish line: Azumaryu and Ishiura collected important wins at the expense of Arawashi and Mitoryu, respectively. While Ishiura will be returning to the top flight immediately after last basho's demotion, it's the end of a 29-basho stint below makuuchi for Azumaryu. As mentioned earlier, this should be the second-slowest return in history, behind only Satoyama who was out for 37 tournaments before his return in 2014.

                        M10  Takagenji     4-11 (?)
(x) kyujo Yoshikaze     M11
(?)  5-10 Tochiozan     M12
(x)  5-10 Chiyomaru     M13
                        M14
(x)  4-11 Yago          M15  Kaisei      1-10-4 (x)
                        M16

                        J1   Azumaryu      8-7  (o)
(o)  9-6  Ishiura       J2
(?)  8-7  Chiyoshoma    J3   Yutakayama    9-6  (o)
     8-7  Wakatakakage  J4   Takanosho     9-6  (?)
                        J5
(o) 13-2  Tsurugisho    J6
                        J7
(?) 11-4  Daiamami      J8

The four marked rikishi should all be certain promotions given that there are three obvious demotions and Chiyomaru's rank/record combination is also easily bad enough to throw him out of makuuchi. Things look a lot more tricky after that. I'm inclined to give the lucky nod to both Tochiozan and Takagenji at this time, since their scores are close enough to non-demotion territory that it doesn't take that much leniency to let them stay. It would also save the committee from having to decide which one or two candidates in the Chiyoshoma/Takanosho/Daiamami trio deserve to replace them, and my impression has long been that they like to take the easy way out in such situations. At any rate, if they do decide to have a 5th promotion, it's almost certainly going to be Takanosho for Takagenji. I won't venture a guess for who would replace Tochiozan; arguments can be made either way for Chiyoshoma and Daiamami.

With Azumaryu winning his final match it was simultaneously bad news for Arawashi who needed to win in that bout to avoid leaving juryo in the opposite direction. Fellow J10 Chiyonoumi did succeed in saving himself with a victory over Kyokushuho - as bad as the first 10 days mostly were, the 4-1 stretch at the end showed Chiyonoumi at his best. I'm still hoping that he can turn into somebody who does more than make up the numbers in juryo - the technique is all there, just power is lacking against too many opponents.

Rookie Kotonowaka will also feature in juryo again in September after completing a 6-2 stretch to kachikoshi from 2-5 down. The final shiroboshi came against makushitan Wakamotoharu who thus finished only 5-2, which may come back to bite him on Wednesday in the banzuke-making session...

(o)  6-9  Chiyonoumi    J10  Arawashi      5-10 (?)
                        J11  Aminishiki   0-3-8 (i)
                        J12  Ryuko         4-11 (x)
                        J13
(x)  4-11 Akiseyama     J14  Kotonowaka    8-7  (o)

(o)  5-2  Seiro         Ms1  Irodori       4-3  (o)
                        Ms2
(o)  4-3  Tamaki        Ms3
                        Ms4  Kaisho        4-3
                        Ms5  Wakamotoharu  5-2  (?)

...or it might not, as I also tend to believe that they'll have four promotions. It may be to Arawashi's detriment that he's the only J10 with 5 wins now - if both had the same score, one could imagine the committee looking at them as a package deal of sorts and deciding that it's either keep 'em both or drop 'em both. Given the relatively weak ranks/results by Kaisho and Wakamotoharu, that could have easily gone in favour of the juryo incumbents. Now that it's just straight up Arawashi vs Wakamotoharu for the final slot, I think I favour Wakamotoharu here, especially as he's been up in juryo before and "make him earn it" considerations don't apply. If Arawashi does get demoted, it'll end a tenure of 34 consecutive sekitori basho for him, which saw him go up all the way to M2. Not bad for somebody who, at the start of that stint, was already 27 years old and only had three one-basho appearances in juryo to show.

For completeness, top-ranked Seiro finished his Nagoya basho with another win for 5-2, this one against new talent Kototebakari, and he might get to re-enter juryo high enough to have a little breathing room for the next tournament - my quick first draft sees him at J11w which would allow him 9 losses, a much better proposition than competing at J14w as he did in his previous juryo return in May. The other two or three promotees should not go higher than J13.

Disclaimer: If the banzuke committee decides to be particularly insane, a repeat of the post-Aki 2018 session might be possible, i.e. Wakamotoharu being deemed a better candidate for promotion than Tamaki, which would go against basically every other precedent from the last 30 years (as that one did). Arawashi could theoretically be saved at a different rikishi's expense that way, although I think that's exceedingly unlikely - the big thing in Aki 2018 was that they just didn't have anybody that could be demoted to make room for both Daiseido and Tomokaze. Here Arawashi is an easily justified drop, they just need to go through with it.

And rounding up the last relevant events from the senshuraku session: The three-way Naruto do-beya playoff in jonokuchi was - somewhat predictably - won in straight matches by the most experienced of the three, 23-year-old ex-Kindai University member Motobayashi, once he actually got to compete after his two stablemates had contested the first bout. The sandanme playoff between two Takasago-beya rikishi also went an ex-collegiate's way in Terasawa, who defeated 38-year-old Asatenmai (the oldest ever to go 7-0 in sandanme, I believe). Both will be moving up into makushita, Terasawa into the middle of the division for his debut and Asatenmai most likely just inside the top 15; he was last ranked that high six years ago.

With that we're done here, check in again on Tuesday evening / Wednesday morning when the promotions to juryo and the list of retiring rikishi are announced. Thanks for reading!

Edited July 28, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

2 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

Exactly my thoughts. The extra Sekiwake spot is forced by Takakeisho, not Abi. Extra lower Sanyaku spots are rarely created for scores less than 11 but regularly for demoted Ozeki.

Wakanosato would like to have a word with you.

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

39 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Wakanosato would like to have a word with you.

But Wakanosato could be and was moved from Kw to Ke.

Edited July 22, 2019 by yorikiried by fate

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

...and as I said before: extra sanyaku slots cost a considerable amount of money in the long run, especially when young guys like Abi are involved.

I honestly don't understand what this means. In which way do one-time extra slots cost lots of money in the long run?

Where does a one-time rank achievement play into long-term reimbursement?

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

2 hours ago, Flohru said:

The problem is that there is not a single more recent case to prove that claim. After looking at all (11) cases of extra Sekiwake slots created for demoted Ozeki after 1980: There were always one, two or three kk Sekiwake and/or a Komusubi/joi rikishi with double digit wins (only once less than 11) involved. In 10 of the 11 cases there could have been no argument at all about the need of an extra Sekiwake slot, while the only closer call was Musoyama (K1e, 10-5) being promoted to a fourth Sekiwake position on the Hatsu 2000 banzuke that already saw two incumbent Sekiwake and Takanonami being demoted from Ozeki. But then a 10-5 is still way better than a 8-7..

How do you know it was a close call? Show me the KK K1e that wasn't promoted in an Ozdem scenario, where without the demotion a Sekiwake spot would have been available.

Edited July 22, 2019 by yorikiried by fate

[Dapeng 235]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Hakuho had to settle for the runner-up position, and in fact it's his first jun-yusho in two and a half years - but of course he's had seven yusho in between.

A sense of humor   

[Gurowake 4,052]

YBF, you're correct in that there is no exact corresponding incident in the recent past.  Your opinion is sustainable by the evidence available.  However, I believe that most people would say that when it comes to whether there is a Sekiwake slot available for a KK K1e, one would first have to consider whether there are other people that are going to take that spot regardless.  As much as there is no evidence against your opinion, there is no evidence *for* your opinion as well, as all cases since 2000 where there are 3 or more Sekiwake after an Ozeki demotion is because there were two or more other rikishi who would always have been Sekiwake regardless of the demoted Ozeki, and since the demoted Ozeki is Sekiwake regardless as well, then there have to be 3 of them.

Musoyama being promoted with a 10-5 K1e in 1999 cannot be used as precedent, even disregarding the fact that there were two KK Sekiwake then and so it's not comparable to now anyway, since in Kyushu 2004 the exact same situation came up involving a demoted Ozeki, two KK Sekiwake and a 10-5 K1e Kotomitsuki, who was not promoted.  Your opinion seems to be based on the fact that K1e is special in consideration for Sekiwake promotion, but there is no precedent that justifies it other than something 20 years ago that has since been superseded.

I'm not going to say that you're wrong, and especially given the difficulties that there are placing the first 6 maegashira, it might be decided they need to create another sanyaku slot, and since creating a third Sekiwake slot in the way you're suggesting does not actually go against any precedent, that's what they'd decide to do.  If it happens that way, we'll at least know that it wasn't entirely unreasonable because someone else came to the same conclusion.  But given how strongly they don't want to create sanyaku slots and the lack of precedent *for* your opinion, I am not convinced.

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

How do you know it was a close call? Show me the KK K1e that wasn't promoted in an Ozdem scenario, where without the demotion a Sekiwake spot would have been available.

Quoted so you get a notification.  And I guess I'll say, show me a KK K1e that *was* promoted in such a scenario that hasn't been revoked by later precedent and that wouldn't have been promoted anyway under current precedents.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Gurowake

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I honestly don't understand what this means. In which way do one-time extra slots cost lots of money in the long run?

Where does a one-time rank achievement play into long-term reimbursement?

Yeah, looks like I've been making a fool of myself again (happens a lot recently, doesn't it?)

Somehow I thought the highest rank or number of sanyaku basho affects the honshokin-system, but it looks like I was mistaken. Of course there's still the extra Sekiwake salary to be paid for the basho in question, but without long-term effects.

I really should stop trying to walk in Asashosakari's enormous shoes...

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

21 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As much as there is no evidence against your opinion, there is no evidence *for* your opinion as well

 

Agreed.

22 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

 But given how strongly they don't want to create sanyaku slots and the lack of precedent *for* your opinion, I am not convinced.

 

This is where I disagree as I see no real evidence for that.

 

Hey, good discussion, though.

[Rocks 1,809]

There'll be no extra Sekiwake slot for Abi. He leaped his way out of it with that stupid henka. 

[Flohru 176]

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

How do you know it was a close call? Show me the KK K1e that wasn't promoted in an Ozdem scenario, where without the demotion a Sekiwake spot would have been available.

Well, "closer call" in the sense that this is the only one out of the 11 cases since 1980 in which arguably the K (or joi rikishi) could have been denied a Sekiwake spot in the Ozdem scenario (thus the only example that could be used to substantiate your argument). In any case I agree that there is no clear evidence against your opinion as well; the good thing is that we will know for sure in a couple of weeks. If you are right, hats off to you, but I really cannot see it. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Flohru

[Rainoyama 1,157]

I like how that particular issue is the source of a lengthy and healthy debate on the forum while the guys actually in charge of the banzuke will probably just roll the dice only to decide in the end to let 4-11 Ryuden keep the spot because his Oyakata was actually there while Hakkaku was having an important meeting somewhere and Oitekaze suddenly ran to the bathroom.

" *Insert name 1* and *Insert name 2* were there too and they agreed" declared an embarassed Takadagawa Oyakata when asked about the decision, seconds before throwing a smoke bomb to the journalists and fleeing as fast as he could in the opposite direction.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Rainoyama

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Loving the debate, but I’m afraid it’s all moot. I hear from very reliable sources that, for the first time in centuries, they’re going to create a new rank just for this situation. Since they can’t move Abi up, and he henka’d his way to kachikoshi, they’re going to jump him sideways to Komusubi Far East.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Eikokurai

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

I'm just tinkering with my first GTB draft, and admittedly a third Sekiwake slot would make the whole joi-situation a bit less awful. But that has never been a deciding factor, has it?