2019 Kyushu Basho Discussion (spoiler alert)

[Amamaniac 2,079]

18 minutes ago, maorencze said:

With how the results are looking, this could be interesting. If Daieisho finishes 9-6 he HAS to be promoted, never in history (if my query was correct) was M1e NOT promoted with this result. And if Endo gets to 8-7 and Mitakeumi wins at least one more, we might have 4 komusubi again, if not 3 sekiwake and 3 komusubi (especially with Mitakeumi finishing 8-7, which is unlikely but possible).

What an interesting time/era to be a sumo fan!

The true sign of a sumo fan is when considerations like these float your boat!  Welcome to the club.

[orandashoho 720]

8 hours ago, robnplunder said:

8 hours ago, Rocks said:

Terunofuji takes the Makushita Yusho. 

That brings up the question of whether he will be promoted to juryo or not.  Anyone has thoughts on this?   It seems he'd need help and luck to get to juryo in the next basho.   

I'd say that it will be difficult even with a 7-0 result to skip a 5-2 result that is six rungs above on the banzuke ladder, but the yusho might count for a few rungs more. Even then, there are four rikishi in the top of the Makushita joi with kachikoshis that have a greater chance of returning to Juryo.
It all depends then on the big shuffle in Juryo. There are going to be quite a few demotions in Makuuchi and Juryo rikishi moving up freeing their spots. At the same time, there are Juryo rikishi with bad makekoshis but only two certain of demotion and the fight for kachikoshis isn't finished yet. So we'd have perhaps six Juryo spots freeing up that could give Terunofuki a chance. Or some of the Makuuchi demotees get a little banzuke luck and Terunifuji will be at Ms1 next basho. It could go either way... it all depends on whether Hoshoryu and Irodori get a makekoshi which will give Terunofuji greater chances.

[Andreas21 184]

4 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

It's been speculated, but he's relying on the generosity of the kyokai since his rank-record combination isn't what would usually be required. Last basho he managed 10-5 at M2, which ordinarily would only really get counted if it preceded a yusho or equivalent. Compare his situation to that of Takakeisho, who got turned down for Ozeki despite getting 33 wins as Komusubi/Sekiwake, which included a yusho and a jun-yusho. At that time though there was less "need" to promote anyone as the Ozeki corps was full.

If Asanoyama manages 12 wins this time and repeats the feat in January, he may get the nod, if only because the sanyaku are in ill health and/or under-performing. Sometimes you need a little external luck in promotion matters.

That was a rough decision on Takakeisho, one of the hardest non-promotions since Baruto's non-promotion in 2010.01 . Probably, Asanoyama would need 34 wins over 3 basho as well, but who knows.

Regardless, I really love the Sumo style of Asanoyama. Calm, focused, strong. If he continues this way, promotion will be only a matter of time. Still has to figure out how to beat the top guys but so consistent against middle Meagashira. This fighting style also appears to be less injury-prone, for instance compared to Takakeisho.

 

[Sumo_da 34]

I'm very happy for both Teru's, the big one in makushita and the small one in makuuchi.

And Hakuho got this, the only one who could have stopped him was Asanoyama. Would have been great if he won against him in their bout early this tournament but Hakuho is determined to win this Yusho no matter what.

[Yamanashi 3,854]

1 hour ago, orandashoho said:

I'd say that it will be difficult even with a 7-0 result to skip a 5-2 result that is six rungs above on the banzuke ladder, but the yusho might count for a few rungs more. Even then, there are four rikishi in the top of the Makushita joi with kachikoshis that have a greater chance of returning to Juryo.
It all depends then on the big shuffle in Juryo. There are going to be quite a few demotions in Makuuchi and Juryo rikishi moving up freeing their spots. At the same time, there are Juryo rikishi with bad makekoshis but only two certain of demotion and the fight for kachikoshis isn't finished yet. So we'd have perhaps six Juryo spots freeing up that could give Terunofuki a chance. Or some of the Makuuchi demotees get a little banzuke luck and Terunifuji will be at Ms1 next basho. It could go either way... it all depends on whether Hoshoryu and Irodori get a makekoshi which will give Terunofuji greater chances.

I don't think all three of those guys have a chance to move up to Juryo.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Yamanashi
I can't spell, either

[maorencze 144]

1 hour ago, orandashoho said:

I'd say that it will be difficult even with a 7-0 result to skip a 5-2 result that is six rungs above on the banzuke ladder, but the yusho might count for a few rungs more. Even then, there are four rikishi in the top of the Makushita joi with kachikoshis that have a greater chance of returning to Juryo.
It all depends then on the big shuffle in Juryo. There are going to be quite a few demotions in Makuuchi and Juryo rikishi moving up freeing their spots. At the same time, there are Juryo rikishi with bad makekoshis but only two certain of demotion and the fight for kachikoshis isn't finished yet. So we'd have perhaps six Juryo spots freeing up that could give Terunofuki a chance. Or some of the Makuuchi demotees get a little banzuke luck and Terunifuji will be at Ms1 next basho. It could go either way... it all depends on whether Hoshoryu and Irodori get a makekoshi which will give Terunofuji greater chances.

If I looked correctly, that would be a first, not promoting Ms10 with 7-0Y. Then again, circumstances really complicate things for Terunofuji, odds are a bit against him, especially given his weak-ish schedule (if they take sumo quality into consideration, which they - NSK - do, this might be THE straw that breaks the promo-camel's back) 

[Akinomaki 40,594]

1 hour ago, orandashoho said:

I'd say that it will be difficult even with a 7-0 result to skip a 5-2 result that is six rungs above on the banzuke ladder, but the yusho might count for a few rungs more. Even then, there are four rikishi in the top of the Makushita joi with kachikoshis that have a greater chance of returning to Juryo.
It all depends then on the big shuffle in Juryo. There are going to be quite a few demotions in Makuuchi and Juryo rikishi moving up freeing their spots. At the same time, there are Juryo rikishi with bad makekoshis but only two certain of demotion and the fight for kachikoshis isn't finished yet. So we'd have perhaps six Juryo spots freeing up that could give Terunofuki a chance. Or some of the Makuuchi demotees get a little banzuke luck and Terunifuji will be at Ms1 next basho. It could go either way... it all depends on whether Hoshoryu and Irodori get a makekoshi which will give Terunofuji greater chances.

Terunofuji is first in line to juryo promotion - the rank he gets will be relative to the results of others to promote, but a 7-0 yusho in the ms top 15 is just as sure to be promoted as a kachikoshi at ms1e.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Akinomaki

[Asashosakari 19,394]

6 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Would a 12-3 junyusho ordinarily count as such? Not taking external factors into consideration.

Possibly if the yusho decision was open until the final day, almost certainly not if it was an early victory. They've been happy to discount even 13-2's in the latter scenario.

[Dapeng 235]

14 minutes ago, maorencze said:

If I looked correctly, that would be a first, not promoting Ms10 with 7-0Y. Then again, circumstances really complicate things for Terunofuji, odds are a bit against him, especially given his weak-ish schedule (if they take sumo quality into consideration, which they - NSK - do, this might be THE straw that breaks the promo-camel's back) 

I think the weight of a 7-0 zensho yusho is much different than a 7-0 non-yusho, esp. at Ms. 7-0 non-yusho at Ms or lowers is not rare. I don't think there was ever a 15-0 non yusho in Juryo or mukuuchi. 

[Nantonoyama 252]

10 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

I think the weight of a 7-0 zensho yusho is much different than a 7-0 non-yusho, esp. at Ms. 7-0 non-yusho at Ms or lowers is not rare. I don't think there was ever a 15-0 non yusho in Juryo or mukuuchi. 

Kettei-sen bouts are not considered when it comes to banzuke movements. 7-0Y or 7-0D will be treated exactly the same.

In the non-impossible case where both Terunofuji and Midorifuji went to a 7-0 makushita yusho kettei-sen, both would have been promoted

[Dwale 419]

All the congrats to Terunofuji! He's had a rough time but I'm pleased and excited to have him back in the ranks of the sekitori. Here's hoping he can keep it up. I doubt we'll ever see him fulfill that potential he had at his peak, but I'd be content just to have him back in makuuchi. 

Asanoyama pulling double digits at komusubi. What can I say about this kid other than "holy crap?" If he wasn't on everyone's radar before, he is now. High expectations mean high pressure, but I think he's up to the challenge.

Takakeisho will likely finish double digits as well. And good for him.

M10 is too low a rank for Shodai. 

Mitakeumi...oh, Mitakeumi. Wtf.

[code_number3 706]

Until now, Enho has never have double-digit win in every basho he played. When will he have 10+ win basho?

[Giku Squad 10]

I'm starting to feel bad for Enho, he's digging deep for that Kachi but he's not going to get it. He'd have to beat Terutsuyoshi tomorrow and I don't see that happening with the current form Terutsuyoshi is in.

Here's to hoping this will be Asanoyama's first Ozeki run and hopefully his last. I don't see him being a Rubber Band Ozeki who goes Kadoban and Ozekiwake all the time. If he keeps showing this kind of sumo I think he will be the real deal.

Gotta be proud of the big guy Terunofuji. Welcome back to the salaried ranks, I'm curious to see how you do. He's had a lot of difficulty with the Makushita he's faced and they're not exactly the most difficult challengers to face. Juryo is going to be difficult for him at first I feel.

[Akinomaki 40,594]

Asanoyama is the first ever below sekiwake to get the most wins of the year, and only 2 times a sekiwake got it, but that where Taiho and Takanohanada. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20191122/k10012187941000.html

The last to get double digits in wins as shin-sanyaku was Terunofuji http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&showhighest=on&form1_rank=m&form2_rank=s,k&form2_wins=10-15&form2_debutr=on

I have no idea how to have just the new sanyaku on the query result - but you can see that Tochiozan, Yutakayama II and Futabayama had been komusubi before, so they don't count.

Edited November 22, 2019 by Akinomaki

[Kaminariyuki 499]

11 hours ago, cyclonicleo said:

Ishiura has had some cracking bouts this time around - certainly Enho might try to pick up a thing or two, if not already. Enho could do with more muscle as his speed isn't really enough, as most of the division has kinda twigged to his tactics.

Seriously? You don't think Enho is as fast as Ishiura? Maybe my fan's eyes are deceiving me... Of course, I'm a big Ishiura fan, as well, and he's been wrestling extremely well this basho. I think you're correct that the rikishi in the top division are synching in to Enho's size and tactics, but I must point out that in his first three makouchi tournaments, he's been 7-8, and then two KKs, both at 9-6. Fairly impressive, no matter one's size. He has to win both of the final days to get another KK (seems unlikely even to a fan), but at M-6, I consider six wins to, again, be fairly impressive. 

Banzai Enho!!!

[dada78641 884]

19 hours ago, since_94 said:

Takekaze on security duty in the first pick. Hope to meet him one day.

You know what, I totally missed that!

[dada78641 884]

I thought this was a nice random dohyo shot. Or is there something I'm supposed to be seeing here?

Proud that Terrornofuji is steadily climbing back up to makuuchi:

Also, the following pic is from yesterday but I can't believe I forgot to post it. The most dapper Kisenosato Araiso oyakata ever:

[Rocks 1,809]

11 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

I thought this was a nice random dohyo shot. Or is there something I'm supposed to be seeing here?

I think the spot on the right is the part they had to repair when Yago or Gagamaru, don't remember which, fell and took a big chunk out of it earlier in the basho.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

5 hours ago, orandashoho said:

13 hours ago, robnplunder said:

14 hours ago, Rocks said:

Terunofuji takes the Makushita Yusho. 

That brings up the question of whether he will be promoted to juryo or not.  Anyone has thoughts on this?   It seems he'd need help and luck to get to juryo in the next basho.   

I'd say that it will be difficult even with a 7-0 result to skip a 5-2 result that is six rungs above on the banzuke ladder, but the yusho might count for a few rungs more. Even then, there are four rikishi in the top of the Makushita joi with kachikoshis that have a greater chance of returning to Juryo.
It all depends then on the big shuffle in Juryo. There are going to be quite a few demotions in Makuuchi and Juryo rikishi moving up freeing their spots. At the same time, there are Juryo rikishi with bad makekoshis but only two certain of demotion and the fight for kachikoshis isn't finished yet. So we'd have perhaps six Juryo spots freeing up that could give Terunofuki a chance. Or some of the Makuuchi demotees get a little banzuke luck and Terunifuji will be at Ms1 next basho. It could go either way... it all depends on whether Hoshoryu and Irodori get a makekoshi which will give Terunofuji greater chances.

On the NHK broadcast today, Terunofuji was interviewed as the Makushita Champion.  The interviewer repeatedly stated that Terunofuji would be moving back up to the Sekitori (paid) ranks.  For him to say that and for Terunofuji to accept that fact, suggests that this is a done deal.

[Katooshu 3,246]

Ya, as mentioned, 7-0 from within Ms15 = automatic promotion, he is back 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Katooshu

[Amamaniac 2,079]

What is going on with Hoshoryu down in Juryo?  He was 5-2 after seven days, and now he is in danger of getting a makekoshi losing record...  

In his bout today, he was up against everyone's favourite (not), Takagenji.  Despite setting up a pretty good looking uchigake, Takagenji managed to out muscle him and Hoshoryu flew out of the ring first.  Hoshoryu was quite surprised when he saw the gyoji's gunbai pointing to Takagenji's side of the ring.  A monoii confirmed that Takagenji had won, and the kimarite was given as utchari.

Tomorrow, he'll have his hands full with Sokokurai.  Things are not looking good for Hoshoryu's Juryo debut...

[Katooshu 3,246]

From a quick look at his record it seems largely like an opposition thing. The losses started coming in as he faced more juryo opponents in good (or at least not awful) form. 

He hasn't beaten any juryo opponent with a winning record at the moment, while he has lost to all 5 he's faced--with 3 of those matches coming from day 9 on. None of his losses really jump out to me as him not being himself. A 6-9 or 7-8 is actually pretty respectable for the juryo debut of a 20-year-old, though with some pegging him  a future top division star it may seem underwhelming, especially with Kotoshoho doing so well...

Edited November 22, 2019 by Katooshu

[robnplunder 975]

Well, despite a so-so debut in juryo, Hoshoryu's future looks bright.   He has the athleticism, techniques.   Once his body fills up in a few years, I'd imagine he will be a joi and even a sanyuku.    

[Akinomaki 40,594]

24 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

None of his losses really jump out to me as him not being himself. A 6-9 or 7-8 is actually pretty respectable for the juryo debut of a 20-year-old, though with some pegging him  a future top division star it may seem underwhelming, especially with Kotoshoho doing so well...

He needs Asashoryu to give him a kick from afar, like always when he had to fight hard against looming makekoshi for the last days of a basho.

[Gabriel 13]

4 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Seriously? You don't think Enho is as fast as Ishiura? Maybe my fan's eyes are deceiving me... Of course, I'm a big Ishiura fan, as well, and he's been wrestling extremely well this basho. I think you're correct that the rikishi in the top division are synching in to Enho's size and tactics, but I must point out that in his first three makouchi tournaments, he's been 7-8, and then two KKs, both at 9-6. Fairly impressive, no matter one's size. He has to win both of the final days to get another KK (seems unlikely even to a fan), but at M-6, I consider six wins to, again, be fairly impressive. 

Banzai Enho!!!

Enho is faster than Ishiura. If he manages to defeat Terutsuyhosi tomorrow, I bet on a Kachi Kosi.