Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

[Rocks 1,809]

27 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Judging by the couple of bouts I've seen this basho, I disagree. He seemed much more collected and in control last basho and rather fidgety this time.

I would agree. He finished matches much better last basho, even the losses. Seemed nervous a bit.

[Rocks 1,809]

1 hour ago, ryafuji said:

1 hour ago, serge_gva said:

It's really going to have to be 10 very great wins, then. I don't see him promoted with 31 wins (2 less than the guideline), because he won't have an ascending series (11-10-10) and a he won't have a Yusho-or-similar result in the last-3 to to counterbalance these two shortcomings (11-4 J but 3 wins behind Hakuho does not count imho). But I agree 11 convincing wins may be OK.

Don’t forget, there will be only one ozeki next basho. The standards are loosened in such cases. 

Yes, and 10 wins next basho would give him double digit wins in 5 of the last 6 basho along with a yusho.  That's ozeki level sumo. With only 1 ozeki left it's an easy decision.

When it suits their purposes, like Kisenosato's Yokozuna promotion,  I think you will see them  talking about the past year more than concentrating on 2 or 3 basho.

[Fede 45]

1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

Like many an Ura fan, I was happy to see him win the playoff bout today.  But, what wasn't quite as reassuring as that win was the look on his face as he squatted ringside waiting for his yusho certificate.  He looked to be seriously uncomfortable, if not in considerable pain.  Unlike Terunofuji, Ura's knees appear to be far from better.  I hope that he can follow Terunofuji's example and shoot back up the banzuke, but I'm not holding my breath!

Cross fingers. I need rikishi like him. Especially in this period… 

[Jabbamaru 166]

He did it. Did it. Omedetou Tokushōryu for your Cinderella basho! Maximum respect. 

Sumo is in really bad shape. Without Hak, Haruma, Kak and Kise, and with the injuries of the guys who are supposed to take their places...Teru, Ichi, Takayasu, Mitakeumi...The sport is in a totally awkward moment right now. But its not Tokushouryus fault so big fat congrats to him!

Edited January 27, 2020 by Otokonoyama

[Nantonoyama 252]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Have there ever been more than 3 maegashira in the sanyaku soroibumi? I guess 3 has happened before, but I can't imagine there was a basho with 4. And likely the average rank in there was never so low as today.

Because of bout precedence, this question can be rephrased as: Was it ever a basho with at most 2 active sanyaku on senshuraku.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&group_by2=day&day=15&m=on&rank1=Y-K

The lower number of active sanyaku on senshuraku is 5, in Kyushu 2018

[robnplunder 975]

5 hours ago, Gospodin said:

"In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes  two months." Andy Warhol has reached sumo, finally 

Seriously, Tokushoryu took adavantage of a quite unique situation. No yokozuna, badly performing ozeki, a relatively easy first week-schedule, and the top-tier opponents he faced didn´t know him well, probably. Not to take anything away from his success - after all he won those 14 matches - but I also cannot imagine him holding his own even in mid-maegashira over more than two bashos.

Another one-hit wonder as far as yusho goes.  Add to the list of Tamawashi, Tochinoshin, Takakeisho, Goeido, Kotoshogiku, Asanoyama.   Of the list, I can see Takakeisho and Asanoyama winning again.   The rest will likely stay on the list for good.

[dingo 1,263]

1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

 

Re: Goeido. I'm not surprised by reports of his possibly imminent intai. I thought there was an "I don't want to do this any more" look on his face today. I think it's fair to say he's been the least popular ozeki on this forum during my time here, but he's in the top 10 in terms of career longevity and he's got a zensho yusho to his name, so wtf do we know, eh? He really deserves more respect, and if he decides to go the old fashioned way with the loss of his rank, he deserves it even more. 

I thought exactly the same thing when I saw his face just after he lost his bout. It was the look of someone who has accepted that he is not good enough anymore. Maybe someone or something will change Goeido's mind over the next few days, but after his bout he looked like he was indeed ready to retire. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by dingo

[Otokonoyama 2,735]

3 hours ago, Fede said:

Tokushoryu has an uncommon sense of humor also. Well done lad.

I like the guy, and his championship was exciting. That said, he sounds exactly like every Japanese comedian on TV. Uncommon for you perhaps, but utterly pedestrian for the time and place. He echoes it well, though.

[Gospodin 191]

2 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Re: Goeido... I think it's fair to say he's been the least popular ozeki on this forum during my time here

Before him, Kaio, perpetually kadoban,  then mailing in 8-7 scores, delaying his overdue retirement year after year, and Chiyotaikai in his waning years were also treated quite harshly. I remember when Chiyo got a little too obvious "assistance" from Baruto, looking as if he employed Yedi powers to defeat the Estonian, the comments here were hilarious and evil at the same time 

[Akinomaki 40,515]

54 minutes ago, Nantonoyama said:

Because of bout precedence, this question can be rephrased as: Was it ever a basho with at most 2 active sanyaku on senshuraku.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&group_by2=day&day=15&m=on&rank1=Y-K

The lower number of active sanyaku on senshuraku is 5, in Kyushu 2018

This won't answer my question - the number of sanyaku on day 15 this basho was 6, but only 3 were in the sanyaku soroibumi (the last 3 bouts on senshuraku)

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

Just now, Akinomaki said:

This won't answer my question - the number of sanyaku on day 15 this basho was 6, but only 3 were in the sanyaku soroibumi (the last 3 bouts on senshuraku)

It actually does answer your question, you just need to think as hard about it as I needed to do.

[Akinomaki 40,515]

13 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

It actually does answer your question, you just need to think as hard about it as I needed to do.

It's too late in the day for that - Kyushu 2018 with 5 sanyaku active had 4 of them in the soroibumi, more than this basho: how do I get to the numbers of all other basho without looking up the bouts of day 15?

Edited January 26, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Nantonoyama 252]

9 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

It actually does answer your question, you just need to think as hard about it as I needed to do.

I thank harder about it, and actually there is one case not covered by my previous query. A kyujo rikishi on senshuraku will appear as active on day 15, yet the "bout" will be moved before sanyaku soroibumi and this can shot 2 sanyaku in the process.

But as a 2-sanyaku soroibumi would require at least 2 bouts to be cancelled in the last-3 originally scheduled when the database shows "5" or "6" active sanyaku in senshuraku, that can be deemed as highly unlikely

[Akinomaki 40,515]

Except for 3 basho, the last bout had no maegashira, and each bout has to have 1 sanyaku if there still is one, so 3 is the minimum possible, if 3 are still there - OK, 1st part. Only  Hatsu 1972 and Haru 1927 had a maegashira in the last bout and could also have had 3 - both had more sanyaku - checked them. Leaves only the kyujo possibilities: 2 in the last bout - maybe 2 dropped out: if 6 are there, again a minimum of 4 is guaranteed, and the only basho with 5 sanyaku had 4 in the soroibumi. (If there had been 2 top level kyujo on the last day, it would have been big enough in the news that we'd get reminded of it from time to time)

I hadn't planned to restart my brain so late in the day ...

Edited January 26, 2020 by Akinomaki

[Nantonoyama 252]

7 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

It's too late in the day for that - Kyushu 2018 with 5 sanyaku active had 4 of them in the soroibumi, more than this basho: how do I get to the numbers of all other basho without looking up the bouts of day 15?

I'm not sure there is a way to query this, I'd say it is necessary to go and see which schedule was chosen by the torikumi makers for each single senshuraku if you want to know the exact number of maegashira in the last three bouts

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

3 hours ago, serge_gva said:

How long ago was the last more or less comparable case of loosened conditions?

1981 Kotokaze promoted to ozeki with 31 wins 9-10-12Y.

[lackmaker 437]

55 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Except for 3 basho, the last bout had no maegashira, and each bout has to have 1 sanyaku if there still is one, so 3 is the minimum possible, if 3 are still there - OK, 1st part. Only  Hatsu 1972 and Haru 1927 had a maegashira in the last bout and could also have had 3 - both had more sanyaku - checked them. Leaves only the kyujo possibilities: 2 in the last bout - maybe 2 dropped out: if 6 are there, again a minimum of 4 is guaranteed, and the only basho with 5 sanyaku had 4 in the soroibumi. (If there had been 2 top level kyujo on the last day, it would have been big enough in the news that we'd get reminded of it from time to time)

I hadn't planned to restart my brain so late in the day ...

I'm just going to assume you're right.

[Asojima 2,874]

50 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

1981 Kotokaze promoted to ozeki with 31 wins 9-10-12Y.

After a basho where there were 3 yokozuna and no ozeki.  Chiyonofuji was a yokozuna/ozeki, and he went kyujo after day 2. Wakanohana was the other Y/O, and he was coming off 3 kyujo bashos, and went 0-0-15 kyujo on the next one.  The other yokozuna was Kitanoumi who also went kyujo during the next basho.  Crisis time.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Asojima

[Gurowake 4,053]

One of the links on the SumoDB home page is to a query for "Ozeki runs" where someone finished with at least 30 wins over the last 3 tournaments where the last one was at Sekiwake.  The times such a run ended in a promotion are highlighted.  In addition to the previously mentioned 31-win run that went 9-10-12Y,  There was:

Onokuni 9-10-12J at a time where there were 2 Yokozuna and 3 other Ozeki, promoted 09.1985

Masuiyama 8-11-12J, 4Y, 1O, 03.1980

Kaiketsu (first promotion) 7-12Y-11J, 2Y, 1O, 01.1975

Kiyokuni 10-9-12J, 2Y, 3 O, 07.1969

That was the beginning of the current kadoban system, and going back from there, there were many 30-win promotions.

We're basically in the same situation as with Kaiketsu, and the Yokozuna are performing even worse (in the Kaiketsu case, both Wajima and Kitanoumi were rather new Yokozuna just beginning their dominance), so we might expect some leniency in Ozeki promotions.  But that was also 45 years ago, so there's been complete turnover of the oyakata since then.

 

 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 hour ago, Gospodin said:

Before him, Kaio, perpetually kadoban,  then mailing in 8-7 scores, delaying his overdue retirement year after year, and Chiyotaikai in his waning years were also treated quite harshly. I remember when Chiyo got a little too obvious "assistance" from Baruto, looking as if he employed Yedi powers to defeat the Estonian, the comments here were hilarious and evil at the same time 

Kaio will always be a legend for winning five yusho, among other records. Chiyotaikai also managed three. To me those guys were the definition of Ozeki. It took me ages to realize it was even possible to lose the rank because they were such permanent fixtures.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Gospodin 191]

Sure they were. I was a big fan of Kaio in particular. They just carried on way too long, being either kyujo, kadoban or 8-7/9-6. That did not sit well.

(BTW the best of the ozeki bunch in the naught years was Tochiazuma, in my opinion. If not for his injuries that stroke, he maybe would have been able to spoil the dominance of the Mongolians)

Edited January 27, 2020 by Gospodin

[Koorifuu 1,001]

I've posted it on other thread, but Kashiwado got promoted to ozeki with 30 wins in an era where there was also a change of the guard & a bit of a depletion up there. It was 60 years ago though.

[sekitori 492]

Possible co-holders of M4 rank in Osaka--Enho and Tokushoryu. A few months ago, that would have been nothing more than a very strange delusion. And if it doesn't quite occur,  it at least will be close.to hsppening.

Although it has no relation to this topic, I just wanted to add something  else--rest in peace, Kobe Bryant. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by sekitori

[Tiger Tanaka 225]

Many guessed that Tomokaze would hold onto the final Makuuchi spot over Tokushoryu. That decision seemed to have a little more impact than the usual result of the last one in.

Congratulations Tokushoryu! 

[Akinomaki 40,515]

2 hours ago, Tiger Tanaka said:

Many guessed that Tomokaze would hold onto the final Makuuchi spot over Tokushoryu. That decision seemed to have a little more impact than the usual result of the last one in.

So will they now refrain from demoting Meisei or Kotoyuki for someone not fully deserving a promotion, to avoid further incidents like this - or will it encourage them to enable more odd breakers