Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

[lackmaker 437]

14 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Another interesting question regardless of tomorrow's results might well be: Who's going to be Shodai's final opponent? Even if he loses to Tokushoryu he'll still be in the running, after all. The only maegashira ranked M1-4 that he has met already is Hokutofuji, so Endo, Mitakeumi or Okinoumi would all be options, but perhaps not the best ones. Maybe some random 7-7 mid-maegashira, if they're going to delay the making of the schedule anyway?

Why would the M1-4 options not be the best ones?

[Rocks 1,809]

23 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Are you forgetting Goeido?

Yes, I did. Thanks.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

15 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Why would the M1-4 options not be the best ones?

Should preferably be somebody who has reason to give 100% in the match, and the mentioned three might well all be 8-6 at that point.

Edit: Or to clarify further, somebody that people won't have reason to suspect might not give 100%. Of course it's totally possible that an 8-6'er would delight in trying to kill Shodai's yusho hopes, but the standard assumption is probably that they wouldn't risk too much.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Asashosakari

[yohcun 401]

It's not too likely yet, but Haru could be the first time in decades that there's not a single Koto- in makuuchi.

[specialweek 2 136]

1 hour ago, yohcun said:

It's not too likely yet, but Haru could be the first time in decades that there's not a single Koto- in makuuchi.

No, Kotoshogiku will be in for sure.

[lackmaker 437]

10 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Should preferably be somebody who has reason to give 100% in the match, and the mentioned three might well all be 8-6 at that point.

Edit: Or to clarify further, somebody that people won't have reason to suspect might not give 100%. Of course it's totally possible that an 8-6'er would delight in trying to kill Shodai's yusho hopes, but the standard assumption is probably that they wouldn't risk too much.

I've always considered it slightly puzzling as, all other things being equal, a loss at 7-7 or at 8-6 still costs 2 ranks. Is there some other advantage to KK over MK? Maybe just psychological.

[Gurowake 4,053]

28 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

I've always considered it slightly puzzling as, all other things being equal, a loss at 7-7 or at 8-6 still costs 2 ranks. Is there some other advantage to KK over MK? Maybe just psychological.

In general, an 8-7 has a chance to move you up the banzuke 5 ranks based on luck way way more often than a 7-8 will send you spiraling down the banzuke 5 ranks.  The latter is effectively unheard of, while the former happens quite regularly.  This happens partly because there usually is a large accumulation of wins near the top of the division, meaning that there's plenty of people with good records without the ability to move up, and thus those that do have KK records can move past a lot more MK people than would normally be expected by the numbers.  The current situation of the top ranks *not* hogging a huge portion of the wins makes it a bit of an anomaly, which partially explains why there have been logjams that required people to get over-demoted and under-promoted far more than usual (though the changing number of sanyaku probably had more to do with it).

Edited January 25, 2020 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,053]

6 hours ago, specialweek 2 said:

No, Kotoshogiku will be in for sure.

I'm not sure exactly when this quoted comment was made in relation to when Kotoshogiku won on Day 14, but while it certainly is true now, it wasn't true before that Day 14 win which is probably when the original comment was made.

[lackmaker 437]

26 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

In general, an 8-7 has a chance to move you up the banzuke 5 ranks based on luck way way more often than a 7-8 will send you spiraling down the banzuke 5 ranks.  The latter is effectively unheard of, while the former happens quite regularly.  This happens partly because there usually is a large accumulation of wins near the top of the division, meaning that there's plenty of people with good records without the ability to move up, and thus those that do have KK records can move past a lot more MK people than would normally be expected by the numbers.  The current situation of the top ranks *not* hogging a huge portion of the wins makes it a bit of an anomaly, which partially explains why there have been logjams that required people to get over-demoted and under-promoted far more than usual (though the changing number of sanyaku probably had more to do with it).

Interesting. Possibly partly explained by the Sekiwake, where generally a KK doesn't see you promoted but an MK will result in demotion. The knock on effect might result in overpromotions further down to compensate? 

[Koorifuu 1,001]

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

Interesting. Possibly partly explained by the Sekiwake, where generally a KK doesn't see you promoted but an MK will result in demotion. The knock on effect might result in overpromotions further down to compensate? 

Yes, this is right.

There is something else though:

Usually, when there were at least 6 fully able and qualified Y/O, the joi guys would take a brutal beating. Double digit losses were fully expected. They'd go down at least around 10 places in the banzuke.
Plenty of 8-7 / 9-6 mid maegashira dwellers took the spoils and this would heigthen the feeling that even a 8-7 would be very benefitial.

As explained by @Gurowake, the logjam is happening because those beatings are not happening anymore and none of the new guard is standing out from the rest in order to receive their own ozeki promotion - except, obviously, Takakeisho. Plenty of people have winning records and nowhere to climb to. If only the likes of Hokutofuji, Asanoyama or Mitakeumi had 3 consecutive consistent basho...

If the banzuke commitee doesn't go gung-ho and create more komusubi spots again, we're going to have a M18 next time round and I've frankly never seen that happening. Which is also a problem by itself - the depletion of the yokozuna/ozeki ranks means more spots are added at the bottom of maegashira. Now that Goeido is going down, for example, staying in M7e would be an invisible promotion because it's actually one step above in the ladder.

 

EDIT: We haven't had M18 since Aki 1959 and back then makuuchi had 46 rikishi - nowadays it's 42.

EDIT #2: Dug around and I found an interesting case in 1960, where a changing of the guards was also happening with barely any yokozuna or ozeki: Kashiwado was promoted to ozeki with 30 wins. It ended up being proven as the right decision, even if he had plenty more junyusho than actual yusho... But that's because someone else ascended shortly after.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Koorifuu

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

Which is also a problem by itself - the depletion of the yokozuna/ozeki ranks means more spots are added at the bottom of maegashira. Now that Goeido is going down, for example, staying in M7e would be an invisible promotion because it's actually one step above in the ladder.

How is that a problem? These "invisible promotions" happen all the time. Just compare this banzuke with the previous one.

[Koorifuu 1,001]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

How is that a problem? These "invisible promotions" happen all the time. Just compare this banzuke with the previous one.

It's not a problem per se and it's definitely a much smaller factor than Y/O ranks being effectively non-existent, but it has a bit of an effect in distorting the general notion on how many ranks a certain rikishi moved from one basho to another.

Sure - it won't be the case for experienced fans with a keen eye, and its effect is minimal, but on paper promotions might not look as impressive as they were and demotions will feel harsher.

Then again, this is only made noticeable because of the generalised banzuke chaos caused by having one single Y/O doing his job. As you mentioned it's happening all the time.

Interesting, at first glance it looks like the complete opposite effect could happen with someone makes ozeki and everyone else is shunted up a step, making it all look more impressive than before... But that was never ever mentioned. Maybe it has to do with the fact that the new ozeki have already been doing ozeki work for 3 basho.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Koorifuu

[Asojima 2,874]

The shift of maegashira titles happens every time that there is a change in the total number of Y/O/S/K.  It happens every two or three basho.  Absolutely nothing weird here.  The change is not a change in hierarchy, only a change in the name of the positions. To get the true promotion/demotion picture, number the positions 1-42 rather than the published names. Note that J1e becomes position 43.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Asojima

[Koorifuu 1,001]

My point is mostly how that seems to stand out a bit more now that the situation in the top is different than usual, despite it being absolutely normal and commonplace. I'm not entirely sure why everyone is replying as if I'm shocked it's happening...

[Yubinhaad 11,697]

20 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

or perhaps not even that and we'll get through the whole second week without any crossover matches. (That has not happened since Haru 1967, and that was a highly exceptional basho as you may witness here.)

Just two Juryo-Makushita crossover bouts in the whole basho then - this is only the fifth basho in the 15-day era with so few, and the first since 1967 Kyushu.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Yubinhaad

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14 (results, text-only results)

13-1 M17w Tokushoryu

12-2 M4w Shodai

11-3 Oe Takakeisho, M2e Hokutofuji

It may be clumsy sumo as described by Tokushoryu himself, but it's hard to argue with its effectivenes at the moment... And it's difficult to claim that Shodai was ever truly in control of today's bout between our two leaders, so Tokushoryu winning yet again by tsukiotoshi can hardly be called a fluke. He is now the sole leader entering senshuraku and has his yusho destiny in his own hands. No sanyaku rikishi are left standing as contenders after Takakeisho found himself outbattled by Asanoyama in a nice back-and-forth match, so we'll see the third time ever that the yusho will be decided on senshuraku but only maegashira are still contending for it.

Takakeisho does get to play a possible role in the championship outcome as he's been tabbed as Tokushoryu's final opponent. Of course, it might end up not mattering if Shodai has already failed to move up to 13 wins himself - it's a high maegashira opponent for him after all, but the hunch that they'll pick somebody on 7-7 was also accurate, so it's Mitakeumi as per the again very late publication of the torikumi.

Hokutofuji hadn't lost since the middle Sunday, and Day 14 saw that streak continue against Kagayaki, so he's now in the running to take a share of the jun-yusho (which would be his second), should Shodai lose tomorrow. He'll need to defeat Yutakayama for that.

   1-3-10 Hakuho        Y    Kakuryu      1-4-9
    11-3  Takakeisho    O    Goeido        5-9  (x)
     9-5  Asanoyama     S    Takayasu      5-9  (x)
(x)  5-9  Abi           K    Daieisho      6-8  (x)

     8-6  Endo          M1
    11-3  Hokutofuji    M2   Mitakeumi     7-7
                        M3
     7-7  Okinoumi      M4   Shodai       12-2
                        M5   Enho          8-6
                        ...
                        M8   Ryuden       10-4
                        M9   Yutakayama   10-4
                        ...
                        M17  Tokushoryu   13-1

So, the first basho of 2020 will end with the highly unusual matchup of the lowest-ranked rikishi in the division with the highest - active - one. The expected Takakeisho-Goeido ozeki bout has had to be scrapped for that, with Goeido now facing Onosho (M7w 8-6) instead in what may be his final ozeki appearance, and while they were at it they've also knocked the Asanoyama-Takayasu sekiwake pairing off the schedule in favour of Asanoyama against double-digit maegashira Ryuden. The komusubi matchup between Abi and Daieisho will go ahead, at least - when we saw the neat Hatsu banzuke with 2 rikishi at each sanyaku rank back in late December, I doubt any of us expected that only one of the four same-rank torikumi would materialize in the end. Oh well.

Day 14 brought shiroboshi for Tsurugisho, Kotoshogiku, Azumaryu and Ikioi, and suddenly they're all safe by the numbers and we're having a serious shortage of demotable rikishi and still one more day to go. These results have arguably brought yesterday's winning (and today's losing) duo Shimanoumi and Kaisei back into the mix for possible unlucky overdemotions, with Tsurugisho also still in the line of fire.

Over in juryo former ozeki Terunofuji's zensho quest was ended by Nishikigi in a very strong performance, and it may also have cost him the immediate return to the top division. Nishikigi is on double-digit wins at J4 with that, which ordinarily should be plenty enough to secure a promotion, but even he isn't safe yet - Daiamami lurks exactly two ranks down and may end up holding one more win, which would effectively tie him with Nishikigi by the standard formula. However, he'll need to defeat Terunofuji tomorrow as well, in what may effectively be a promotion playoff between the two.

It looks like everybody else may be out of contention, although J5 pair Wakatakakage and Daishoho could still secure nominally promotable records. I can't really see 10-5's forcing down somebody from makuuchi though, unless it's Meisei or Kotoyuki. Youngster Kotonowaka dropped to 7-7 and will almost surely have to spend at least one more basho in the second-highest division, even if he clinches a last-day kachikoshi.

                        M3   Kotoyuki     kyujo (?)
                        M4
(?) 1-7-5 Meisei        M5
                        ...
(?)  5-9  Tsurugisho    M12
(o)  6-8  Kotoshogiku   M13  Kotoeko       2-12 (x)
                        M14  Shimanoumi    6-8  (?)
(o)  7-7  Azumaryu      M15  Ikioi         7-7  (o)
                        M16  Kaisei        7-7  (?)
                        M17

                        J1   Chiyoshoma    6-8  (x)
(~)  7-7  Kotonowaka    J2   Hidenoumi     7-7  (~)
                        J3
(0) 10-4  Nishikigi     J4
(1)  9-5  Wakatakakage  J5   Daishoho      9-5  (1)
(1) 10-4  Daiamami      J6
                        ...
                        J13  Terunofuji   13-1  (1)

Like their maegashira brethren, the lower juryo denizens have also managed to finish up a day early - the two rikishi requiring one more win both won, and the three rikishi in need of no more losses all lost. That set of results included Takagenji saving himself at Toyonoshima's expense, and while the veteran's demotion isn't a completely done deal yet it's looking rather grim. Asagyokusei was the other rikishi to save himself today.

Over in makushita both Midorifuji and Hakuyozan made certain of their promotion to the salaried ranks, which will be a debut for undersized 23-year-old Midorifuji and a third promotion for Hakuyozan, returning to juryo a year after he had to drop out of Haru 2019 with injury.

(?) kyujo Tomokaze      J1
(~)  4-10 Sokokurai     J10  Takagenji     6-8  (o)
(~)  4-10 Toyonoshima   J11  Irodori      1-6-7 (x)
(o)  7-7  Asagyokusei   J12
(~)  5-9  Chiyootori    J13
                        J14  Sakigake      5-9  (x)

                        Ms1  Wakamotoharu  6-1  (o)
(o)  5-2  Midorifuji    Ms2
                        Ms3  Chiyonoumi    4-2  (o)
     3-3  Akiseyama     Ms4  Hakuyozan     6-1  (o)
     3-3  Naya          Ms5

With no juryo rikishi left on the bubble for senshuraku, they have in fact decided to do no more juryo-makushita pairings. As mentioned in yesterday's update and further detailed by Yubinhaad above, it's been an extremely unusual tournament for that. Four promotions should be assured now (including lucky Chiyonoumi before he has even fought his seventh), the question is just which two of Sokokurai/Toyonoshima/Chiyootori will have to follow Irodori and Sakigake down to makushita; each of the three could conceivably still luck out.

Of course we will have a fifth KK in the promotion zone as Akiseyama and Naya have now been matched up, but whoever wins that will not have a terribly strong claim with just 4 wins from Ms4/5. Should Sokokurai et al. all lose again, however, it's a virtual certainty that the winner of that KK playoff will advance to juryo. In any case, the last-ditch chance to maybe save themselves will require all three demotion candidates to defeat much higher-ranked opposition: It's Sokokurai against Chiyoshoma (J1w 6-8, last juryo bout of the day!), Toyonoshima against Daishomaru (J3e 6-8), and Chiyootori against Mitoryu (J4w 6-8). Sokokurai obviously has the best shot at survival as a win would keep him ahead of the other two even if they succeed as well.

And lastly, senshuraku will also see the decision for the jonidan yusho with long-suffering former maegashira Ura taking on underdog Kyokuyuko.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Asashosakari

[botev1921 33]

On 25/01/2020 at 09:27, yohcun said:

It's not too likely yet, but Haru could be the first time in decades that there's not a single Koto- in makuuchi.

More likely there will be two as Kotonowaka should get promoted.

[shumitto 418]

I am curious to see what kind of solution they have for the Makushita-Juryo exchanges. There are six good demotion candidates but not as many potential promotees. Chiyootori might get lucky. 

[Gurowake 4,053]

If Goeido retires there will only be 7 sanyaku, so an M18e will appear for the first time since the division was much larger.  There were only 3 Y/O a few times in the modern era, but there were always additional lower sanyaku, and it was before the expansion to 42 anyway except for one stray basho in 2005 when Tochiazuma was temporarily demoted.  This time there are only 4 good candidates for lower sanyaku without Goeido unless they want to promote Tokushoryu, which seems unlikely. It would however make the question of whether Shodai will be Sekiwake or Komusubi much easier. (I think that both Hokutofuji and Endo making it back to Komusubi is a foregone conclusion, regardless of what rank Shodai gets.)

[Gurowake 4,053]

As to whether Shodai will be Sekiwake or not, well, if he doesn't get it now and then gets 10 wins next tournament they would have to make an unusual promotion to Sekiwake for him should the other two KK, or be prepared to promote a Komusubi to Ozeki, or completely ignore his 13 win basho from M4w that faced all the sanyaku he could.  He did not, however, face Endo, Myogiryu, Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, and Okinoumi, who did face everyone else (excluding Okinoumi vs. Tamawashi) ahead of them in rank.  It's a bit like Tochinoshin's yusho situation where they didn't have the ability to put him against all the maegashira joi that sanyaku might normally face.  Tochinoshin though comfortably asserted his case for promotion in his 2nd tournament after the yusho, so there wasn't need to quibble about how his M3w schedule was slightly weaker than a sanyaku schedule.  Shodai will likely need to be equally decisive in his third tournament should he only manage 10 (or 11, really, but that would mean automatic Sekiwake promotion) wins next tournament, but the fact remains that it might be possible that he's not even Sekiwake then unless they break from the 11 win criteria for K->S forced promotions, which would be reasonable in cases where the 10-win Komusubi is an Ozeki candidate.

Normally I would say a 13-2 against a full joi schedule would be a promotion to Sekiwake, but again, was it really a full joi schedule if he missed fighting 2 maegashira ahead of him in rank who went KK?

Edited January 26, 2020 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,053]

5 hours ago, shumitto said:

I am curious to see what kind of solution they have for the Makushita-Juryo exchanges. There are six good demotion candidates but not as many potential promotees. Chiyootori might get lucky. 

I'm going to say most likely Tomokaze survives and Chiyootori does not, with Akiseyama being promoted, but I can see any of those three being the one stuck in Makushita.  If Akiseyama does get promoted, I don't think it's 100% clear who gets the boot for him unlike in almost every situation.  Again, I lean towards Tomokaze still being in Juryo, but the guys who make the banzuke clearly don't like rikishi sitting out entire tournaments, regardless of their injuries.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,053]

Out of Shimanoumi, Meisei, Kotoyuki, and Daiamami, one of them will end up in Juryo.  My best guess is Kotoyuki, but I can see why they might choose any of those four.  Only one promotion to Makuuchi would be rather abnormal (although there has been a case of none in the past).

[ryafuji 814]

Nishikigi is the only rikishi with an overwhelming case for promotion and Kotoeko is the only one who has to be demoted by the numbers, so a one-up and one-down, while unusual, might be the simplest solution. 

[serge_gva 52]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

If Goeido retires there will only be 7 sanyaku, so an M18e will appear for the first time since the division was much larger.  There were only 3 Y/O a few times in the modern era, but there were always additional lower sanyaku, and it was before the expansion to 42 anyway except for one stray basho in 2005 when Tochiazuma was temporarily demoted.  This time there are only 4 good candidates for lower sanyaku without Goeido unless they want to promote Tokushoryu, which seems unlikely. It would however make the question of whether Shodai will be Sekiwake or Komusubi much easier. (I think that both Hokutofuji and Endo making it back to Komusubi is a foregone conclusion, regardless of what rank Shodai gets.)

I'm not sure to understand. If Goeido does not retire, he will be Sanyaku. Then there will be 4 wrestlers with better numbers than Endo: Asanoyama (S1e), Goeido (S1w), Shodai (K1e) and Hokutofuji (K1w). Why would they automatically create an extra Komusubi spot for Endo? In the last three comparable cases, the 9-6 M1 wrestler was stucked at M1. In this situation, even if Goeido does not retire, we will have 7 sanyaku, thus an M18e rank.

Where am I wrong?

Edited January 26, 2020 by serge_gva

[Gurowake 4,053]

9 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

I'm not sure to understand. If Goeido does not retire, he will be Sanyaku. Then there will be 4 wrestlers with better numbers than Endo: Asanoyama (S1e), Goeido (S1w), Shodai (K1e) and Hokutofuji (K1w). Why would they automatically create an extra Komusubi spot for Endo? In the last three comparable cases, the 9-6 M1 wrestler was stucked at M1. In this situation, even if Goeido does not retire, we will have 7 sanyaku, thus an M18e rank.

Where am I wrong?

There is a big difference between M1e and M1w, and a 9-6 M1e did have an extra spot created not too long ago.

Edited January 26, 2020 by Gurowake