This IS the July 2020 Basho thread!! Spoilers!!

[Sue 520]

This is the kind of basho that we would have if there weren't a jungyo circuit -- everyone well-rested and healthy enough to bring their very best. All of the "feast or famine" rikishi have been bringing their A game -- Next Ozeki Shodai, an awakened Mitakeumi, first KK in a year for Tochi and Geek, and even Ichinojo down in Juryo is flirting with a double-digit win total. (And we had a brief appearance from Kais-A before he reverted to form.) And now we have two Ozeki runs, a possible tsuna run, and a possible tomoesen on senshuraku.

Attention NSK: you'll bring more fans in with sumo like this than you ever will from barnstorming around Japan and wearing everyone out.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Sue

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

58 minutes ago, hakutorizakura said:

In the case of a 3-way playoff, how do they decide who go first? Rank-based or just drawing lots? 

Rock, paper, scissors.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

1 hour ago, hakutorizakura said:

In the case of a 3-way playoff, how do they decide who go first? Rank-based or just drawing lots?

Drawing of straws. 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

19 minutes ago, Sue said:

This is the kind of basho that we would have if there weren't a jungyo circuit -- everyone well-rested and healthy enough to bring their very best. All of the "feast or famine" rikishi have been bringing their A game -- Next Ozeki Shodai, an awakened Mitakeumi, first KK in a year for Tochi and Geek, and even Ichinojo down in Juryo is flirting with a double-digit win total. (And we had a brief appearance from Kais-A before he reverted to form.) And now we have two Ozeki runs, a possible tsuna run, and a possible tomoesen on senshuraku.

Attention NSK: you'll bring more fans in with sumo like this than you ever will from barnstorming around Japan and wearing everyone out.

This is the kind of basho we have because the previous one got cancelled, there was a good stretch of enforced rest with no training, and the primary beneficiaries of that have been the old guard who're dealing with injuries. Terunofuji wouldn't be putting on a yusho run, based on his form in the last two basho, if this basho had been two months earlier, and neither would the other three ex-ozeki. The rest of the maegashira and especially the joi have been battered quite badly as a result.

I'm not sure removing the jungyo per se helps, since while that's a source of injury via training with other sekitori (and with limited rest), injuries can and will happen during ordinary stable training as well. Besides, reaching out to more rural areas is not just a way to bring in sumo fans, but also future rikishi - because being a sumotori is going to appeal more to young kids in rural areas as a way of escaping the dreary countryside, and less to city dwellers who have a lot more things around them competing for their attention.

So while it's true that the quality of the sumo from headliners we've grown to know and love has increased, that's not necessarily the priority of the NSK to keep particular kanban rikishi healthy and contesting. I'm fairly certain that while they hope the high-rankers do well, to them, almost any high-ranker is the same as any other, and they're happy just as long as they have kanban rikishi. In which case, it doesn't matter whether older ones get injured, because new blood will always take over.

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Kaioshoryu 63]

Go Mitakeumi, please please PLEASE win tomorrow!!!

[Yamanashi 3,904]

8 hours ago, Mezzosoprano said:

I wasn’t able to follow the basho during my busy week days - could just look up the results and watch some highlight bouts back home after work.

Some songs came into my mind that matched with each situation,  so  – what about a Song Contest? Here’s the list:

 

• 1.)    Terunofuji: „Don’t stop me now (I’m having such a good time…)”

   

• 2.)    Teru & Asa: “Reach out for the medal yusho”

   

• 3.)    The Next Generation Rikishi: “Hakkiyoi…Ozumo Hakuho, Hakuho, no-more zen-sho-ho. Hai!”

   

• 4.)    Daieisho & Mita vs. Hak: “Oops! I did it again”

   

• 5.)    The Kachikoshi Band: “Oh happy day”

   

• 6.)    Daieisho & Takakeisho: “One for me, one for you”

   

• 7.)    Abi: “Ha! Ha! Said the Clown” (Manfred Mann)

   

• 8.)    Takakeisho vs. Enho & Mita: “All dead, all dead” (Queen)

   

• 9.)    …?

   

• 10.) …any  suggestions?

Let’s see who will sing: “The winner takes it all”?

 

Good idea; maybe a separate thread if it takes off.  So ...

Rikishi of July Basho: "The Boys of Summer"

Hakuho: "Holding Back the Years"

Ishiura: "Stepping Out"

Daieisho: "Take On Me"

Terunofuji: "Driver's Seat"

Enho: "St. Enho's Fire"

Abi: "Do You Really Want to Hurt Me?"

Daikisho: "Hey Nineteen"

Kaisei's aite: "I Feel the Earth Move"

Terutsuyoshi: "If You Could Read My Mind"

Tochinoshin: "Midnight Train to Georgia"

 

[bettega 431]

Any chance of Ozekihood to Shodai? He has 32 wins last 3 basho and 43 last 4 basho. If he and Mitakeumi  win tomorrow he'll get a nice 33 with at least a D

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Not with an 8-7 second basho and his first basho being a 13-2 from M4w. That said, if he wins tomorrow, he's definitely on an ozeki run if he hits good numbers (with preferably a junyusho) in September. And not necessarily 13 either.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Kashunowaka 300]

4 minutes ago, bettega said:

Any chance of Ozekihood to Shodai? He has 32 wins last 3 basho and 43 last 4 basho. If he and Mitakeumi  win tomorrow he'll get a nice 33 with at least a D

It's been discussed quite a lot earlier in the thread. The general consensus seems to be that those 8-7 last basho makes it unlikely (but not impossible) that he will get ozeki with 12-3.

Edit: Seiyashi beat me to it (and is more pessimistic about Shodai's chances than I am.)

Edited August 1, 2020 by Kashunowaka

[Yamanashi 3,904]

4 minutes ago, bettega said:

Any chance of Ozekihood to Shodai? He has 32 wins last 3 basho and 43 last 4 basho. If he and Mitakeumi  win tomorrow he'll get a nice 33 with at least a D

I'll bet Shodai's case has gobsmacked the NSK a little.  They're used to his inconsistency, so probably didn't keep close track.  Now maybe they have to think about it.

[hakutorizakura 643]

39 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Drawing of straws. 

 

1 hour ago, ryafuji said:

The latter. 

Thanks for the answers. And who gets to draw the first straw? Simultaneously? Sorry if I'm being petty, just curious about the details. 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

8 minutes ago, bettega said:

Any chance of Ozekihood to Shodai? He has 32 wins last 3 basho and 43 last 4 basho. If he and Mitakeumi  win tomorrow he'll get a nice 33 with at least a D

 

4 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

It's been discussed quite a lot earlier in the thread. The general consensus seems to be that those 8-7 last basho makes it unlikely (but not impossible) that he will get ozeki with 12-3.

See page 28 for discussion re Shodai, and 33 for discussion re Mitakeumi. My money is on both of them being on their second basho of an ozeki run, not their first.

3 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

I'll bet Shodai's case has gobsmacked the NSK a little.  They're used to his inconsistency, so probably didn't keep close track.  Now maybe they have to think about it.

I don't think they'll think about it unless and only if Shodai yushos tomorrow, and even so, the precedents are not good. The only recent ozeki to be promoted with 8-7 in their middle run were Akebono and Goeido. Akebono had a yusho and junyusho from sanyaku in both of the other tournaments, and Goeido was at sekiwake for all three and junyushoed the other two. Starting at M4 is possible, the last being Kaiketsu (the former Hanaregoma oyakata) but there were good doubledigit sekiwake tournaments afterwards. 

That said, starting with an 8-7 is perfectly possible; Terunofuji (from M2), Kaio (from K) and Musashimaru (from S) all did it.

[Benihana 1,937]

I think the song most of them would sing/hum in the shower is "gyoji in reeed, point your gunbai towards meee"

[Hakuryuho 335]

I know the 8-7 doesn't look as good, but if he somehow wins the basho tomorrow I think he'll be promoted to Ozeki. The jun-yusho in january, this yusho paired with the 33 wins requirement met, should be enough.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

25 minutes ago, hakutorizakura said:

 

Thanks for the answers. And who gets to draw the first straw? Simultaneously? Sorry if I'm being petty, just curious about the details. 

Watch the video-that's how it was done, I assume it's still the same..

 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

57 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Ishiura: "Stepping Out"

Don't you mean: Abi: "Stepping Out"?  

[Kintamayama 45,530]

18 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

I know the 8-7 doesn't look as good, but if he somehow wins the basho tomorrow I think he'll be promoted to Ozeki. The jun-yusho in january, this yusho paired with the 33 wins requirement met, should be enough.

It won't happen, even if he gets the yusho with a 12-3.

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

52 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Some songs came into my mind that matched with each situation,  so  – what about a Song Contest?

Hakuho: Wolf Totem: The HU

Terunofuji: Enter Sandman

Shodai: something complex and fiddly like Pink Floyd or Radiohead

Mitakeumi: New wave or power pop, maybe Green Day

Asanoyama: something bland and inoffensive but good, like Coldplay or late Genesis

[Hakuryuho 335]

4 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

It won't happen, even if he gets the yusho with a 12-3.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Crazier things have happened. 

[Kintamayama 45,530]

Just now, Hakuryuho said:

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Crazier things have happened. 

We shall see, and no, crazier things have not happened when it comes to an Ozeki promotion. If his 13-2 JY had come at Komusubi, possible, but still not probable with that 8-7 sandwiched in. The Kyokai does not "badly need" another Ozeki at the moment. He'll get there by putting up 12-13 wins next basho.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

7 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Well, I wished for a messy finish; all I need now is for Mitakeumi to make it really messy tomorrow! A makuuchi tomoe-sen would IMO be a near perfect way to finish, no matter who wins. Perfect would be Asanoyama coming through to yusho.

I just realised that if the tournament does end up with a makuuchi tome-sen or even a much more unlikely ketteisen, Terunofuji, as the frontrunner, will be in the mix.  He better be prepared to fight more than one bout tomorrow.  Given his battered knees, the best thing is to win his regulation bout and get his mage straightened straight away.  But if RabidJohn says it's gonna be messy (the finish and the mage), then it's gonna be messy!

Edited August 1, 2020 by Amamaniac

[Hakuryuho 335]

10 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

We shall see, and no, crazier things have not happened when it comes to an Ozeki promotion. If his 13-2 JY had come at Komusubi, possible, but still not probable with that 8-7 sandwiched in. The Kyokai does not "badly need" another Ozeki at the moment. He'll get there by putting up 12-13 wins next basho.

What about Terunofuji? If Shodai wins the basho tomorrow his record is basically the same as Terunofuji's when he was promoted to Ozeki, Terunofuji was M2 instead of M4 and his 8-7 was the first basho of his ozeki run. That is quite comparable and not extremely different to the Shodai situation. Also Shodai had two jun-yusho back to back, which is something to consider.

Next basho he will still have that 8-7 as part of his 3 basho qualification, does it really matter whether that 8-7 is in the middle of at the start of his ozeki run?

Edited August 1, 2020 by Hakuryuho

[Gurowake 4,107]

15 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I just realised that if the tournament does end up with a makuuchi tome-sen or even just a kettei sen, Terunofuji, as the frontrunner, will be in the mix.  He better be prepared to fight more than one bout tomorrow.  Given his battered knees, the best thing is to win his regulation bout and get his mage straightened straight away.  But if RabidJohn says it's gonna be messy (the finish and the mage), then it's gonna be messy!

Not possible for a kettei-sen unless both Asanoyama and Shodai fail to show up or either of Terunofuji or Mitakeumi get injured in their match.  If there's a playoff, one of the two in the musubi-no-ichiban will be in it along with both from the match before it.

Shodai's M4 placement for his 13-2 is a little deceiving; yes, he didn't face a couple maegashira ranked above him who KK'd (Endo and Okinoumi), but he did face all the sanyaku he could plus both M2s. I personally think they promote Shodai if he manages to win the Yusho, at least if he doesn't lose at all in the tomoe-sen.  If he wins the Yusho after one win by everyone in the tomoe-sen it's less clear cut.  I think the two tomoe-sen wins against Terunofuji and Mitakeumi, combined with having beaten both in their matches earlier in the tournament as well as the Ozeki in the musubi-no-ichiban on senshuraku would be a very clear signal.  That signal would be muddied with a loss before the wins.

Daieisho got a lot of luck this tournament; two fusensho against high-ranking opponents, plus his bout with Mitakeumi was skipped.  His possible 11-4 at Komusubi looks less impressive with that.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Gurowake

[Kintamayama 45,530]

8 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

What about Terunofuji? If Shodai wins the basho tomorrow his record is basically the same as Terunofuji's when he was promoted to Ozeki, Terunofuji was M2 instead of M4 and his 8-7 was the first basho of his ozeki run. That is quite comparable and not extremely different to the Shodai situation. Also Shodai had two jun-yusho back to back, which is something to consider.

Next basho he will still have that 8-7 as part of his 3 basho qualification, does it really matter whether that 8-7 is in the middle of at the start of his ozeki run?

Well, people say it actually does. Back to back JY and an 8-7 after that is a downer. But only the Kyokai people know for sure. We'll have to wait and see. A yusho, in any case, is essential, IMHO.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

22 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

What about Terunofuji? If Shodai wins the basho tomorrow his record is basically the same as Terunofuji's when he was promoted to Ozeki, Terunofuji was M2 instead of M4 and his 8-7 was the first basho of his ozeki run. That is quite comparable and not extremely different to the Shodai situation. Also Shodai had two jun-yusho back to back, which is something to consider.

Next basho he will still have that 8-7 as part of his 3 basho qualification, does it really matter whether that 8-7 is in the middle of at the start of his ozeki run?

The order matters and not just the numbers. The criterion is consistent good performance and not just 33 wins - many ozeki in the past have been promoted without 33. 8-7s (especially at sekiwake) in between 12--3s and 13-2s suggest you have one hot and one cold basho, whereas 8-7, 12-3 J, 13-2 Y is much better on the basis of surviving the joi, then more than holding your own in sanyaku.

EDIT: I realised that showing the number of sekiwakes who failed to be promoted with an intervening 8-7 would be more definitive, but it inadvertently ends up suggesting that there is ozeki hope for Shodai if he yushos tomorrow, since everyone with an 8-7 flanked by junyusho/yusho at sekiwake was promoted to ozeki. It boils down to whether or not the NSK thinks 13-2 J at M4 is a bit too low to start an ozeki run with, but it's almost certain that Shodai MUST win tomorrow to be even considered - if he doesn't win, he's almost certain not to be promoted.

EDIT2: What does prove the point that order matters is to see the ozeki promoted who started WITH an 8-7. The 3-basho record for a lot of them are a lot less impressive, as a lot of them contain only 1 J/Y. So even if Shodai doesn't win tomorrow, he is in very good shape to start an ozeki run at Aki.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Seiyashi