Long Kachikoshi Streaks - July 2020

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Apologies for being so late, I lost track of the time a bit. 

The ballot for July:

 1. Kotoshoho       9
 2. Kotonowaka      8
 3. Terunofuji      7
 4. Amakaze         7
 5. Daikisho        7
 6. Suzuki          7
 7. Yutakayama      6
 8. Tokisakae       6*
 9. Kitanowaka      6*
10. Yoshii          6*
11. Araoyama        5*
12. Mishima         5*
13. Asanoyama       4  [score?]
14. Ikioi           4
15. Kaisei          4
16. Hakuyozan       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 16 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (8 'veterans' and 1 returnee) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 25. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 15 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kotoshoho.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Kotoshoho KKMK
2. Kotonowaka KKMK
3. Terunofuji KKMK
4. Amakaze KKMK
5. Daikisho KKMK
6. Suzuki KKMK
7. Yutakayama KKMK
8. Tokisakae KKMK
9. Kitanowaka KKMK
10. Yoshii KKMK
11. Araoyama KKMK
12. Mishima KKMK
13. Asanoyama W-L
14. Ikioi KKMK
15. Kaisei KKMK
16. Hakuyozan KKMK

TB xx

 

[Athenayama 1,041]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka MK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae MK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii KK
11. Araoyama KK
12. Mishima MK
13. Asanoyama 10-5
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan KK

TB : 15

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Kotoshoho      KK
2. Kotonowaka   KK
3. Terunofuji       KK
4. Amakaze        KK
5. Daikisho         KK
6. Suzuki                     MK
7. Yutakayama           MK
8. Tokisakae      KK
9. Kitanowaka   KK
10. Yoshii           KK
11. Araoyama    KK
12. Mishima       KK
13. Asanoyama                   10-5
14. Ikioi                        MK
15. Kaisei                     MK
16. Hakuyozan            MK

TB 13

[Sakura 1,489]

9 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho MK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae MK
9. Kitanowaka MK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama KK
12. Mishima KK
13. Asanoyama 9-6
14. Ikioi MK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan MK

TB 12

 

 

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

LKS July 20

1. KK
2. kk
3. KK
4. MK
5. kk
6. kk
7. MK
8. MK
9. KK
10. MK
11. kk
12. mk
13. 9
14. KK
15. kk
16. kk

 

TB 14

[Profomisakari 857]

 1. Kotoshoho       KK   
 2. Kotonowaka    KK
 3. Terunofuji        KK   
 4. Amakaze         MK 
 5. Daikisho          KK   
 6. Suzuki              MK   
 7. Yutakayama    KK
 8. Tokisakae        KK
 9. Kitanowaka     KK 
10. Yoshii              KK   
11. Araoyama       MK   
12. Mishima          MK   
13. Asanoyama     11   
14. Ikioi                   KK   
15. Kaisei                KK   
16. Hakuyozan       KK    

TB: 13

[Jejima 1,384]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama KK
8. Tokisakae KK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii KK
11. Araoyama KK
12. Mishima KK
13. Asanoyama 8-7
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan KK

TB 16

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki MK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae MK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii KK
11. Araoyama MK
12. Mishima MK
13. Asanoyama 10-5
14. Ikioi MK
15. Kaisei MK
16. Hakuyozan KK

TB: 13

Pandaazuma

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka MK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae KK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama MK
12. Mishima KK
13. Asanoyama 10-5
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan MK

TB 14

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae KK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii KK
11. Araoyama KK
12. Mishima MK
13. Asanoyama 11-4
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei MK
16. Hakuyozan MK

TB : 14

[Hakuryuho 335]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji MK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki MK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae MK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama MK
12. Mishima MK
13. Asanoyama 12-3
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei MK
16. Hakuyozan MK

TB 14

 

 

 

[wolfgangho 39]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka MK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho MK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama KK
8. Tokisakae MK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama MK
12. Mishima KK
13. Asanoyama 9-6
14. Ikioi MK
15. Kaisei MK
16. Hakuyozan KK

 

tb 14

[Achiyama 1,243]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze MK
5. Daikisho KK
6. Suzuki MK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae KK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama MK
12. Mishima MK
13. Asanoyama 10
14. Ikioi MK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan KK

TB : 13

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Kotoshoho KK
2. Kotonowaka KK
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amakaze KK
5. Daikisho MK
6. Suzuki KK
7. Yutakayama MK
8. Tokisakae KK
9. Kitanowaka KK
10. Yoshii MK
11. Araoyama KK
12. Mishima KK
13. Asanoyama 10-5
14. Ikioi KK
15. Kaisei KK
16. Hakuyozan KK

TB 13

[ryafuji 814]

Have to sit this one out I'm afraid. Good luck everyone. 

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

I am processing results now, given that Asashosakari is absent.  Update shortly.

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

Here's the summary so far.  It turns out that the game is completely over going into the final day: literally everyone has either made or missed their target already.  The target for Asanoyama was set at 10 wins, yielding a 9:4 split.   

To sum up: our ballot didn't do very well.  A total of 8 of the sixteen made their target.  Amongst the backup squad, things were much worse: only two of them got their KK, to the final TB is 10, two below the most pessimistic guess.  Oof.

Assuming I haven't made an error in data entry (I've doublechecked, but....), the two co-leaders are chishafuwaku and Holleshoryu, on 11/16.  With both missing the initial tiebreaker, it goes to countback, and the uppermost rikishi they differ on is Amakaze, who has made his target with a match to spare.  This gives chishafuwaku, who had faith in him, the yusho.  

Congratulations chishafuwaku. 
Asashosakari will hopefully be along at some point to tell me if I screwed up somewhere and to make the next banzuke.  

Table note: 1 is KK, 0 MK.  This is for spreadsheet maffs on my end.

	Result		Athena	chisha	Sakura	Ryoshi	Prof	Jejima	Panda	WAKATAKE	Holle	Hakuryuho	wolfgang	achi	mmik
Kotoshoho	KK	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Kotonowaka	MK	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1
Terunofuji	KK	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
Amakaze	KK	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
Daikisho	MK	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
Suzuki	KK	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
Yutakayama	MK	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tokisakae	KK	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
Kitanowaka	KK	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yoshii	KK	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Araoyama	MK	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Mishima	MK	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1
Asanoyama (10+	11+	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	1
Ikioi	MK	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
Kaisei	MK	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1
Hakuyozan	MK	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1
TB	10	8	15	13	12	14	13	16	13	14	14	14	14	13	13
Score		10	10	11	7	6	8	7	10	10	11	9	9	9	9
Asanoyama			10	10	9	9	11	8	10	10	11	12	9	10	10

Edited August 2, 2020 by Ryoshishokunin

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

Ballot for next time: 

1.  Kotoshoho 10
2. Terunofuji 8
3. Amakaze 8
4. Suzuki 8
5. Tokisakae 7*
6. Kitanowaka 7*
7. Yoshii 7*
8. Asanoyama (score?) 5*
9. Murata 5
10. Kaishin 5
11. Shodai (score?) 4
12. Terutsuyoshi 4
13. Tobizaru 4
14. Jokoryu (if promoted) 4

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Apologies that I'm only able to roll this up now. Many thanks to @Ryoshishokunin for stepping in with the final results, and belated congrats to chishafuwaku from here for winning the July 2020 LKS title on a 4-bracket playoff with runner-up Holleshoryu!

It's chishafuwaku's second yusho (following Kyushu 2016), and his first victory in a bracket playoff in five attempts, snapping the longest no-win streak in playoffs that we had among active players. (New "leaders": Pandaazuma and Profomisakari, both 0-for-3.)

The final results table for posterity:

Day 15: 16/16 Decisions, TB 10
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	11	13
2	Holleshoryu	11	14
3	Athenayama	10	15
3	Pandaazuma	10	13
3	WAKATAKE	10	14
6	Achiyama	9	13
6	Hakuryuho	9	14
6	Mmikasazuma	9	13
6	wolfgangho	9	14
10	Profomisakari	8	13
11	Jejima	7	16
11	Sakura	7	12
13	Ryoshishokunin	6	14

The tie-breaker guesses all missed by a mile, as our interim results master already reported, so no bonus wins for anyone but the two who led on points.

The confirmed new ballot for Aki 2020:

 1. Kotoshoho      10
    Kotonowaka      8
 2. Terunofuji      8
 4. Amakaze         8
    Daikisho        7
 3. Suzuki          8*
    Yutakayama      6
 5. Tokisakae       7*
 6. Kitanowaka      7*
 7. Yoshii          7*
    Araoyama        5*
    Mishima         5*
 8. Asanoyama       5
    Ikioi           4
    Kaisei          4
    Hakuyozan       4
 9. Murata          5
10. Kaishin         5
---
11. Shodai          4
12. Terutsuyoshi    4
13. Tobizaru        4

Quite a bit shorter than the last couple of basho, and thankfully we have those three sekitori additions at the bottom to pad things out a bit.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

chishafuwaku 12 (11+top)
Holleshoryu 12 (11+top)
Athenayama 10
Pandaazuma 10
WAKATAKE 10
Achiyama 9
Hakuryuho 9
Mmikasazuma 9
wolfgangho 9
Profomisakari 8
Jejima 7
Sakura 7
Ryoshishokunin 6

Total: 118 / 13 = 9.08 ---> -2 wins

Ugly KK/MK splits either way again, and neither worked terribly well for the banzuke, so I went with the alternative that was narrowly indicated by both average and split (7.08 and 5/8 rather than 8.08 and 9/4).

The new banzuke for Aki 2020:

Asashosakari (Ye kosho)     Y   ---
chishafuwaku (O1w 10-5 Y)   O1  Athenayama (O2w 8-7)
---                         O2  Mmikasazuma (O1e 7-8)
Holleshoryu (M1w 10-5 D)    S   Tenshinhan (Se kosho)
Rocks (Sw kosho)            K   Pandaazuma (M2e 8-7)
Tsuchinoninjin (M1e kosho)  M1  WAKATAKE (M7e 8-7)
wolfgangho (M3w 7-8)        M2  ryafuji (M2w kosho)
Jejima (Ke 5-10)            M3  Sakura (Kw 5-10)
Achiyama (M6w 7-8)          M4  Katsunorifuji (M4w kosho)
Pitinosato (M5e kosho)      M5  Hakuryuho (NR 7-8)
Profomisakari (M6e 6-9)     M6  Ryoshishokunin (M3e 4-11)
Joaoiyama (M4e 0-0-15)      M7  robnplunder (M5w 0-0-15)

chishafuwaku had a jun-yusho in the preceding tournament, but as mentioned at the time, it was one of the softest jun-yusho results we've ever had in LKS, and so this J+Y combination is unfortunately not enough to result in a new white rope. He's now on a full-fledged tsuna run for the upcoming tournament though, of course. Mmikasazuma finds herself kadoban for the 4th time in her 14th ozeki appearance, while Athenayama had a credible enough debut showing in July and can breathe easy for his second turn.

I normally avoid to demote kosho sekiwake who are on an ozeki run, which Rocks is, but I honestly had no better idea how to fill the four lower sanyaku slots this time. The run is of course still intact, and I'll have no issues promoting straight from komusubi if the Aki result warrants it.

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

I'm glad I didn't get the data entry wrong.  Good to have you back, Asashosakari.