September (Aki) Basho- offical thread (yay..)

[yohcun 401]

Shodai wouldn't face Tobizaru tomorrow though, right? Because of his rank privilege, they won't match him up with a lower-ranked chaser.

Like how Ichinojo never fought Hakuho in Haru 2019, despite going 14-1.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

23 minutes ago, pricklypomegranate said:

I was very worried for Kiribayama and thought he was gambling shoulder injury, perhaps a permanent one to maintain a position in a joi. The gamble succeeded for him, but I wonder how long this could last. I think he just gets injured way too much to ever make it beyond sekiwake, but perhaps I am being too pessimistic... 

I was convinced that his return to the ring on day 13 (yesterday) was ill-conceived, despite the win.  It looked to me that he had further aggravated his injury in that bout, and that he would withdraw today.  

But there he was, back in the ring, and despite everything he got another win and his KK.  The boy is tough (and/or full of pain-killers).

On the Abema TV broadcast, a viewer texted in immediately after the bout: "Withdraw already!" (I hope I heard that correctly.). Apparently, there are more fans out there who are seriously concerned about Kiribayama's shoulder...

 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

11 minutes ago, yohcun said:

Shodai wouldn't face Tobizaru tomorrow though, right? Because of his rank privilege, they won't match him up with a lower-ranked chaser.

Theoretically, that's how it should work, yes. Plenty of people seem to be speculating that it will happen though, including commentators. Maybe Sekiwake don't enjoy as much privilege as Y/Os?

Immediate update: Torikumi are out. Shodai does face Tobizaru.

http://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoMain/torikumi/1/15/

I guess Shodai has already faced everyone in the sanyaku and joi, and Tobizaru is the best reasonable challenge remaining. Except .. he hasn't. He hasn't faced Mitakeumi. Hmm.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Kintamayama 45,495]

10 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Who among us would have predicted a year ago that Shodai would be on the cusp of reaching Ozekihood before Mitakeumi? 

Errrm.. three years ago. I did say he will make it before Asanoyama and Takakeishou too, but still..

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, robnplunder said:

1 hour ago, Adil said:

Enho vs Terutsuyoshi: There are very few things in sumo more satisfying than seeing a certified and professional henka-er getting henkaed.

Yeah, there was a bit of hanky panky.  

You could even go as far as saying that there was a bit of "handy on panty".  

The grip Enho got on the vertical portion of Terutsuyoshi's mawashi (i.e., at the back) is generally frowned upon (and Enho has used it on opponents in the past), but no harm no foul as long as the grip is not held for too long.

[Kintamayama 45,495]

3 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

You could even go as far as saying that there was a bit of "handy on panty".  

The grip Enho got on the vertical portion of Terutsuyoshi's mawashi (i.e., at the back) is generally frowned upon 

I'm a bit worried my video will be taken down by the bot because of that one..

[YoungSumo 93]

Did anyone notice Hokuseiho? 18 year old standing at 2 meters and 158 kg and is now 14-0 in his career. Wonder if we're looking at a legit top prospect here or someone who simply dominates the lower ranks because of his size.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

3 minutes ago, YoungSumo said:

Did anyone notice Hokuseiho? 18 year old standing at 2 meters and 158 kg and is now 14-0 in his career. Wonder if we're looking at a legit top prospect here or someone who simply dominates the lower ranks because of his size.

You're in good company.  https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2020/09/23/sumo/sumo-experiencing-extreme-period-parity-final-stages-hakuhos-legendary-reign/

I'd say, more than a few people have noticed, including Hakuho. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

A thought that crossed my mind, RE: Shodai's Ozeki chances if he wins the yusho 13-2. Much has been said about his record in that situation being only 32/45, with an unremarkable 8-7 to start (8-7, 11-4, 13-2). Some have speculated the Kyokai would discount that 8-7 and make him fight one more tournament.

But little has been said about what this would mean for November. If he goes into November with 11-4 > 13-2 behind him, he'll only need 9 wins to make 33/45. Let's assume 9-6 is all he manages. The Kyokai couldn't easily ignore that he'd made the 33/45 target and deny him promotion, but 9-6 isn't a great finish to a run. If it were me, I'd accept an upward trending 32 (8-7 > 11-4 > 13-2) over a box-ticking 33 (11-4 > 13-2 > 9-6). The Kyokai seems to prefer promoting on the back of a strong performance and 8-7 is basically 9-6, isn't it? 

Ergo, Shodai to be promoted with the yusho tomorrow. Fact.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Amamaniac 2,079]

12 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

15 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

You could even go as far as saying that there was a bit of "handy on panty".  

The grip Enho got on the vertical portion of Terutsuyoshi's mawashi (i.e., at the back) is generally frowned upon 

I'm a bit worried my video will be taken down by the bot because of that one..

Well, just be happy that Terutsuyoshi's mawashi wasn't ... "taken down". 

[Kintamayama 45,495]

4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Ergo, Shodai to be promoted with the yusho tomorrow. Fact.

100%, regardless of the 32 wins. He has shown great sumo and it's not really his fault that the Yokozunae aren't around to test him.

[pricklypomegranate 730]

7 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I'd say, more than a few people have noticed, including Hakuho. 

Hakuho has first dibs as he saw him first. He was 4 then, it's hard to beat that 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

20 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

A thought that crossed my mind, RE: Shodai's Ozeki chances if he wins the yusho 13-2. Much has been said about his record in that situation being only 32/45, with an unremarkable 8-7 to start (8-7, 11-4, 13-2). Some have speculated the Kyokai would discount that 8-7 and make him fight one more tournament.

But little has been said about what this would mean for November. If he goes into November with 11-4 > 13-2 behind him, he'll only need 9 wins to make 33/45. Let's assume 9-6 is all he manages. The Kyokai couldn't easily ignore that he'd made the 33/45 target and deny him promotion, but 9-6 isn't a great finish to a run. If it were me, I'd accept an upward trending 32 (8-7 > 11-4 > 13-2) over a box-ticking 33 (11-4 > 13-2 > 9-6). The Kyokai seems to prefer promoting on the back of a strong performance and 8-7 is basically 9-6, isn't it? 

Ergo, Shodai to be promoted with the yusho tomorrow. Fact.

I like the way you think.  But...

Takanohana was in more or less the same position back in November of 1992 (i.e., 32 wins, starting with a 8-7 record at Komusubi and including a Top Division yusho).  He had to come back with double-digit wins in January of 1993 before he got the Ozeki promotion nod.  

Ergo, no go.

Spoiler

Sorry.  

But the good news is that if Shodai is held to Takanohana's standards, then we could be seeing the next Yokozuna.  So there's that.

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by Amamaniac

[Seiyashi 4,108]

41 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

I guess Shodai has already faced everyone in the sanyaku and joi, and Tobizaru is the best reasonable challenge remaining. Except .. he hasn't. He hasn't faced Mitakeumi. Hmm.

Except that Mitakeumi hasn't been fighting well this tournament, so the Kyokai thinks - and I fully agree - that he isn't a reasonable challenge to end a yusho race with.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

6 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

22 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

A thought that crossed my mind, RE: Shodai's Ozeki chances if he wins the yusho 13-2. Much has been said about his record in that situation being only 32/45, with an unremarkable 8-7 to start (8-7, 11-4, 13-2). Some have speculated the Kyokai would discount that 8-7 and make him fight one more tournament.

But little has been said about what this would mean for November. If he goes into November with 11-4 > 13-2 behind him, he'll only need 9 wins to make 33/45. Let's assume 9-6 is all he manages. The Kyokai couldn't easily ignore that he'd made the 33/45 target and deny him promotion, but 9-6 isn't a great finish to a run. If it were me, I'd accept an upward trending 32 (8-7 > 11-4 > 13-2) over a box-ticking 33 (11-4 > 13-2 > 9-6). The Kyokai seems to prefer promoting on the back of a strong performance and 8-7 is basically 9-6, isn't it? 

Ergo, Shodai to be promoted with the yusho tomorrow. Fact.

I like the way you think.  But...

Takanohana was in more or less the same position back in November of 1992 (i.e., 32 wins, starting with a 8-7 record at Komusubi and including a Top Division yusho).  He had to come back with double-digit wins in January of 1993 before he got the Ozeki promotion nod.  

Ergo, no go.

They play hot and cold with it - Asashio had a 9-6 from M1e at the start of his run and yet was promoted. So arguably Takahanada was hard done by at that point, although the few tournaments before his sanyaku run to ozeki were lacklustre (beginning with a 5-10 drop from sekiwake).

I think if Shodai seals the yusho tomorrow, he's a shoo-in based on the way he defeated Asanoyama. As long as he doesn't end this basho tomorrow with a flop like Takakeisho did last year, his performance against Asanoyama will be enough to convince the NSK that he's worthy to be ozeki. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Takanohana

Takanohana's career was something of an outlier in so many ways sometimes I barely think it's worth turning to it for precedent. Look at the hoops they made him jump through to become Yokozuna. He already had seven yusho and four jun-yusho to his name!

I'm not seeing the similarity there anyway, tbh. November of 1992 was the third basho in his run and he only got 10-5 after 8-7 and 14-1. Shodai's record ends (potentially) with the higher score. That's why I speak of upward trends. If it had gone 8-7, 10-5, 14-1 maybe things would have been different for Takanohana, though as I say, they made him work hard for every promotion because he was only about 12 years old at the time.

[kumoryu 95]

Surely there's a difference between a 13-2 yusho and a 12-3 yusho after a play-off (possibly a three-way play-off)? I'd imagine that 13-2 would get him ozeki, 12-3 wouldn't.

Incidentally, if he does get promoted, that would create three sanyaku vacancies?

Sekiwake: Mitakeumi, Takanosho

Komusubi: Terunofuji, and, er, Takayasu?

 

 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Except that Mitakeumi hasn't been fighting well this tournament, so the Kyokai thinks - and I fully agree - that he isn't a reasonable challenge to end a yusho race with.

Agree, though Mitakeumi still has an Ozeki run to keep burning and 9-6 would just about stoke that fire, so a 'playoff' of sorts against the yusho leader wouldn't be too outrageous an idea.

[RabidJohn 1,853]

Wow, Shodai in the driving seat! Made Asanoyama look bad, too... 

We might have thunk Shodai the next ozeki back when he first showed his stuff in the joi, but he's had 3 largely mediocre years since then and well and truly proved us wrong. 

He still does that 'Ooh, I really don't like this bit' tachi-ai (the look on his face), but now he's getting some drive and power into it. He's now got patience when he needs it, the ability to weather tsuki-oshi storms, and the ability to recover from setbacks. He's clearly made a step up from the run of the mill hiramaku he was a year ago, much like Asanayoma was nothing particularly special until he was. 

I don't know whether a 8-7, 11-4, 13-2Y will get him the promotion, though. Takakeisho went 9-6, 13-2Y, 11-4, and they made him do another 10-5 to prove his case. Asanoyama went 10-5, 11-4, 10-5, 11-4. They've got 2 ozeki doing well; they don't need another. I think they'll ask for another double-digits KK in November.

And Tobizaru tomorrow! The Flying Monkey could get himself into a play-off still! Wow again!

Although I'd love to see a makuuchi tomoe-sen, I'm rooting for Asanoyama to take Takakeisho out of it.

---

That was a fantastic win by Hoshoryu today. I'll be interested to see if he can KK tomorrow. Some days he looks great, then the next day he looks a shoo-in for demotion.

---

Happy for Kiribayama getting his KK, but I hope he calls it there and goes kyujo again.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

13 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Takayasu?

If he wins tomorrow (10-5), for sure. That makes him the clear favourite. If he loses (9-6), then it's a maybe. There is some precedent for M8s with 11-4 to get the nod, so Wakatakakage could creep in if Takayasu loses. I'd say that's less likely though.

There's also Kiribiyama but I'm expecting him to kyujo tomorrow now he has KK. A 9-6 for him could put him ahead of Takayasu though if he does decide to come back.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,108]

6 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Takakeisho went 9-6, 13-2Y, 11-4, and they made him do another 10-5 to prove his case. Asanoyama went 10-5, 11-4, 10-5, 11-4.

As I recall, the match on senshuraku for his 11-4 was against Goeido, who dispatched him in a matter of seconds. So I'm in agreement with Eikokurai when it comes to talking about upward trends and finishing strong - Shodai's opened the door with that performance against Asanoyama today, and if he dispatches Tobizaru with good sumo tomorrow he should be seriously considered for promotion. Asanoyama's 10-5, 11-4, 10-5 was 31 wins over 3, and the last ozeki to be promoted with less than 32 wins was Onokuni. If Shodai wins tomorrow he meets the numbers, and if he absolutely wipes Tobizaru, he's as good as promoted.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,437]

7 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I think they'll ask for another double-digits KK in November.

Asking for double-digits would be incredibly harsh. He has had five KKs in succession, four of them 11+, four in the sanyaku/joi, and with two JYs and potentially one Y in the mix. Setting him 34 wins instead of the usual 33 would be about the meanest thing they could do.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

21 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

If it had gone 8-7, 10-5, 14-1 maybe things would have been different for Takanohana, though as I say, they made him work hard for every promotion because he was only about 12 years old at the time.

There's also the possibility that, since Wakanohana (I) (his uncle) was NSK rijicho at the time, they wanted to make absolutely sure that he earned the promotion beyond a doubt, and to avoid whispers that his uncle had prevailed upon the judging department one way or the other. And, back then, we were just fresh off the whole Futahaguro thing, and it may or may not be coincidence that between (and excluding) Onokuni in '85 and Chiyotaikai in '99, every ozeki promoted had 33 wins or more.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Just now, Eikokurai said:

Asking for double-digits would be incredibly harsh. He has had five KKs in succession, four of them 11+, four in the sanyaku/joi, and with two JYs and potentially one Y in the mix. Setting him 34 wins instead of the usual 33 would be about the meanest thing they could do.

I know of Goeido's case - but are there other precedents of the shimpan-bu making comments on the promotability of ozeki candidates just before the crucial match? This whole discussion may well be moot if Isegahama says something to the press tonight.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Just now, Seiyashi said:

There's also the possibility that, since Wakanohana (I) (his uncle) was NSK rijicho at the time, they wanted to make absolutely sure that he earned the promotion beyond a doubt, and to avoid whispers that his uncle had prevailed upon the judging department one way or the other. And, back then, we were just fresh off the whole Futahaguro thing, and it may or may not be coincidence that between (and excluding) Onokuni in '85 and Chiyotaikai in '99, every ozeki promoted had 33 wins or more.

The Futahaguro thing was almost certainly a big factor. An immature Yokozuna was not something anyone wanted and Takanohana/Takanahada still hadn't finished puberty.