September (Aki) Basho- offical thread (yay..)

[Koorifuu 1,020]

28 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

In the last year alone we lost Goeido, Yoshikaze, and Tochiozan.

What is more telling is that - this time last year, the average age of the top division was 29, whereas this year, it's 29.3. So if all the deadwood had stayed on, the average would have been 30. It suggests that we are losing deadwood, and the moment the two yokozuna, Shohozan and Kotoshogiku retire, the average age is probably going to drop below 29. 

Whether 29 is old for the top division is another matter altogether.

I'd add Ikioi to the list. Dropped out of maegashira, but there's no way he's coming back.

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

A pretty entertaining day 14 and the matches went in such a way that the judging department didn’t have too many headaches about how to make the matches to close out the basho. 

My sansho predictions below:

Shukun-sho to Shodai or Tobizaru if they win the yusho 

Kanto-sho to Tobizaru, Onosho (has to win day 15)

Gino-sho to Shodai, Wakatakakage (has to win day 15)

[robnplunder 976]

56 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

In the last year alone we lost Goeido, Yoshikaze, and Tochiozan.

What is more telling is that - this time last year, the average age of the top division was 29, whereas this year, it's 29.3. So if all the deadwood had stayed on, the average would have been 30. It suggests that we are losing deadwood, and the moment the two yokozuna, Shohozan and Kotoshogiku retire, the average age is probably going to drop below 29. 

Whether 29 is old for the top division is another matter altogether.

The inevitable changing of the guard. 

I am good as long as the young ones coming up can fill their shoes. After Hak and Kak intai, the golden age of Yokozuna (Kise, Hak, Kak, Haruma) will end.   I am afraid we won't see that kind of top quality sumo anytime soon if ever.  Sure, Asanoyama, Takakeisho of the world are decent rikishi but they won't even make it to Ozeki in the golden age.   I am just happy to witness the age of 4 yokozuna that included the GOAT.  

Edited September 26, 2020 by robnplunder

[Kintamayama 45,503]

The torikumi makers were a bit lazy today. From the second bout till the 7th, exact same rikishi on the East as day 14. Including Juryo Ikioi who is back again in Makuuchi. 

[sahaven111 178]

On 25/09/2020 at 10:38, Amamaniac said:

Yup!  A simple check reveals that Wakanosato registered Komosubi 9X and Sekiwake 17X, which means ... Mitakeumi has a new goal to shoot for! 

Kotonishiki.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

Does anyone have a handle on Gagamaru?  He is on the banzuke at Sd85w for this tournament, but he hasn't appeared on the dohyo since January 15, and hasn't actually won a bout since November 12, 2019.  Prior to that he was more or less a fixture in Juryo for three years, and prior to that, he spent about 6.5 years in the Top Division.

I regret to say that at only 33, his best years are behind him, and I seriously doubt he will be making a Terunofuji/Toshinoshin comeback any time soon...

[Thorbjarn 215]

Did I dream or did we actually get two guest-rikishi from Juryo on one day? Has this happened a lot in the past? 

Edited September 26, 2020 by Thorbjarn

[Benevolance 2,510]

I hadn't even registered the absence of Gagamaru. 

[sahaven111 178]

Quickie for day 14/15... I think i missed yesterday. It's much simpler now.

Tier 1: Shodai

Tier 2: Takakeisho

Tier 3: Tobizaru

Shodai train everybody!!

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

5 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Does anyone have a handle on Gagamaru?  He is on the banzuke at Sd85w for this tournament, but he hasn't appeared on the dohyo since January 15, and hasn't actually won a bout since November 12, 2019.  Prior to that he was more or less a fixture in Juryo for three years, and prior to that, he spent about 6.5 years in the Top Division.

I regret to say that at only 33, his best years are behind him, and I seriously doubt he will be making a Terunofuji/Toshinoshin comeback any time soon...

I think he's just hanging in there so that Tochinoshin has a buddy to talk to in Georgian.

[sahaven111 178]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I think he's just hanging in there so that Tochinoshin has a buddy to talk to in Georgian.

Wants citizenship?

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

If Shodai does make ozeki, does anyone think that he will adopt a new shikona like Hoshi and Ama? I think that Mitakeumi floated the idea of changing his name if he got promoted but I may have dreamed that.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

34 minutes ago, Thorbjarn said:

Did I dream or did we actually get two guest-rikishi from Juryo on one day? Has this happened a lot in the past? 

Pre-NSK (i.e. 1927), you could have up to 9 makuuchi-juryo bouts - see for example this Osaka basho: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=191801. And this apparently lasted some while afterwards: see day 2 of the 1930 Natsu basho http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=193005&d=2 with 7 juryo-makuuchi bouts.

4 juryo visitors to makuuchi remained common well into the 1970s. They've only happened 7 times since 2000 with the last occurrence being senshuraku of Nagoya 2009: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=200907&d=15

3 juryo visitors to makuuchi were uncommon, but happened about 50 times since 2000. the last occurrence was senshuraku of Aki 2014: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=201409&d=15

The maximum makuuchi-juryo bouts for the last twenty years have been overwhelmingly 2 - there's at least 100 days where this has happened. So it's not a very rare occurrence. The most recent occurrence seems to have been Natsu 2018 day 15: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=201805&d=15

So we haven't had 2 visitors to makuuchi for almost 2 years now. But historically speaking, multiple juryo visitors to makuuchi weren't uncommon, with over 1800 instances dating back to before the JSA, and many examples in modern sumo.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Seiyashi

[sumojoann 1,268]

8 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

If Shodai does make ozeki, does anyone think that he will adopt a new shikona like Hoshi and Ama? I think that Mitakeumi floated the idea of changing his name if he got promoted but I may have dreamed that.

You didn't dream that. 

 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

17 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

If Shodai does make ozeki, does anyone think that he will adopt a new shikona like Hoshi and Ama? I think that Mitakeumi floated the idea of changing his name if he got promoted but I may have dreamed that.

Shodai might change his name since he's still fighting under his real name. But his stable's hallmark shikona has gone to Yutakayama already, who's struggling a lot more in makuuchi than his shikona pedigree would indicate. So if he does, we don't have much to go on to guess what his shikona would be. He might adopt a Toyo-based shikona (alternate reading of Yutaka), but it's a long shot.

As for Mitakeumi.... well, let's see him make it to ozeki first. Then we'll talk. The longer he stretches his ozeki attempts, the less likely he's going to be seen to be worthy of any of those shikona.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Seiyashi

[hakutorizakura 643]

10 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

If Shodai does make ozeki, does anyone think that he will adopt a new shikona like Hoshi and Ama? I think that Mitakeumi floated the idea of changing his name if he got promoted but I may have dreamed that.

I bet he will change his shikona to Masayo, to honor his grandmother 正代 正代 

Mitakeumi said that like... two years ago? Helloooo, you've got 2 guys leapfrogged you already, maybe you need a third one?

 

[Benevolance 2,510]

If Mitakeumi changes his shikona I will forget that he is the mediocre Mitakeumi and then accidentally cheer for him and suffer disappointment all over again. 

[Dapeng 236]

If Shodai wins today he will make an ozeki? 

Since two consecutive yushos from an ozeki makes a yokozuna, two consecutive jun-yushos (or better) can be a good standard for a sekiwake to make an ozeki. 

By the way, was there any one below ozeki who got two consecutive yushos? 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 minute ago, Dapeng said:

If Shodai wins today he will make an ozeki? 

Since two consecutive yushos from an ozeki makes a yokozuna, two consecutive jun-yushos (or better) can be a good standard for a sekiwake to make an ozeki. 

By the way, was there any one below ozeki who got two consecutive yushos? 

No, no one below ozeki has ever gotten two consecutive yushos.

Earlier in the thread there was a discussion over a tweet by Asahi's sumo section on something Takadagawa, deputy head shimpan, said regarding Shodai. And just before that was a discussion on what Shodai needed to do today to win.

[Jejima 1,414]

44 minutes ago, Thorbjarn said:

Did I dream or did we actually get two guest-rikishi from Juryo on one day? Has this happened a lot in the past? 

I vaguely recall that there has to be a minimum of 18 bouts happening featuring Makunouchi rikishi. With so many absences in the top ranks, there need to be Juryo visitors.

This also used to happen more often during the days of 'Kosho' - from memory.

[Yamanashi 3,903]

2 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

I would argue then that there are several wrestlers in the top two divisions that are IMHO "dead wood" (not gonna name names) and should also call it a career.  Perhaps setting a mandatory intai age would help the situation (i.e., 35).  I am not suggesting that there haven't been wrestlers who have excelled after the age of 35, but I do think that by 35, almost all sumo wrestlers have their best years behind them.

I doubt such a regulation would be well received (especially since the NSK just extended their age of retirement), but it might help keep things a little more "exciting"... 

It certainly wouldn't be well received by me.  As others have mentioned, the problem takes care of itself "in the top two divisions", as several recent retirees can attest.  And it preempts some iconic moments in Sumo history, like the Yusho of Kyokutenho.  There have been 20 retirements by current or former sekitori in the last two years, and 12 were less than 35; the rest: Satoyama, 37 (Ms9); Takekaze, 39 (J12); Aminishiki, 40 (J11); Yoshikaze, 37 (J7); Toyonoshima, 36 (Ms7); Kizenryu, 35 (Ms8); Sokokurai, 36 (Ms41); Tokushinho, 36 (Sd4).  I daresay most of these were doing well after 35, and knew to retire when they stopped doing well.  Now if you check the running count of ex-sekitori that comes out each basho, there are plenty of sad, deluded souls who keep tryiong to get back to Juryo and keep falling farther back each year.  But they don't affect "the top two divisions."

If I had to guess some names of "dead wood", they might include Shohozan, Tochinoshin, Tokushoryu, Kotoshogiku, Ikioi, Kitaharima, etc.  Of those, only Giku is over 35, and I bet he's intai within a month.  Another good candidate would be Akiseyama (35), but the old guy is currently 11-3, so it would be awkward to force retirement on him now.  It doesn't seem like an arbitrary cutoff would really give us more advantages than disadvantages here.

[Kaninoyama 1,818]

11 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Errrm.. three years ago. I did say he will make it before Asanoyama and Takakeishou too, but still..

Yes, but would you have predicted it one year ago. That was the question. 

[Gernobono 467]

*sigh* masunoyama went kyujo for his bout today at 3-3 *sigh*

[Kaninoyama 1,818]

5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

I was wondering, is Tobizaru the first freshman meeting an Ozeki? Far from it. Latest instance Ichinojo gobbled up two of them. Tobizaru is not even the lowest ranked, see Goeido.

Araiso spent a good chunk of yesterday's broadcast recounting what an intimidating monster that Ichinojo was when he faced him (and lost).

Will we ever see that Ichinojo again? 

[Reonito 1,519]

11 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Let's assume 9-6 is all he manages. The Kyokai couldn't easily ignore that he'd made the 33/45 target and deny him promotion, but 9-6 isn't a great finish to a run.

I believe double-digits in the third basho of the run is an absolute requirement; that's certainly been true historically in the 6-basho era.