Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2021

[Koorifuu 998]

All predictions are now confirmed!

New Juryo:

• Takakento
• Bushozan

Back to Juryo:

• Nishikifuji
• Ichiyamamoto

[Tigerboy1966 1,448]

5 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

New Juryo:

• Takakento
• Bushozan

Sort of interesting fact is that these two started at the same time and met in mae-zumo in January 2014. Bushozan won btw.

I now see this has already been mentioned on another thread...

Edited January 27, 2021 by Tigerboy1966
already mentioned

[Andreas21 184]

Regarding Terunofuji's chances to regain Ozeki rank next basho, I'd like to remind to Miyabiyama's non-promotion in 07/2006 at 10-14D-10. It is pretty much agreed that the main negative factor was that he fell from the Ozeki rank before.

As repromotions to Ozeki are very rare, Miyabiyama is the only good yardstick that we have, and that tells us 10 wins next basho is probably not enough. My opinion is that 12 will seal it, and 11 is unpredicatable.

[Qwerry 25]

34 may be not enough. But 35 - unevaded shot.

And just look on the post of Isegahama...

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

25 minutes ago, Andreas21 said:

It is pretty much agreed that the main negative factor was that he fell from the Ozeki rank before.

Contrary to Miyabiyama at that stage, however, Terunofuji still has the potential to get the rope.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

That Day 13 loss to Nishikifuji was mighty costly to Shohoryu!  Would Nishikifuji have been promoted back to Juryo if he had lost that bout and ended the tournament with a 5-2 record?  Or would Shohoryu have taken that spot with a 7-0 record and a championship under his mawashi?  Could he have also have bumped Nishikifuji out of Juryo promotion if he had won the playoff?  

It seems that he had his fate in his own hands ... twice!  Despite the disappointment he must have felt, I believe that he is capable of securing promotion to the salaried ranks in March if he can continue putting up the numbers he has in the last two or three tournaments.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Masunofuji 36]

4 hours ago, Qwerry said:

34 may be not enough. But 35 - unevaded shot.

And just look on the post of Isegahama...

What did he say?

[Reonito 1,457]

4 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

That Day 13 loss to Nishikifuji was mighty costly to Shohoryu!  Would Nishikifuji have been promoted back to Juryo if he had lost that bout and ended the tournament with a 5-2 record?  Or would Shohoryu have taken that spot with a 7-0 record and a championship under his mawashi?  Could he have also have bumped Nishikifuji out of Juryo promotion if he had won the playoff?  

The playoff is irrelevant for the purposes of the banzuke. But a 7-0 would have guaranteed promotion for Shohoryu. Whether that would have bumped a 5-2 Nishikifuji or Ichiyamamoto, 4-3 but two ranks higher, I'm not sure.

[ryafuji 814]

I was wondering if there was a chance Daieisho's 13 wins and the yusho could get him the top sekiwake slot next time? Or does Terunofuji's 11 wins make him a certainty for S1E? Kongo got there from M1W in 1975 but in that case the top sekiwake he replaced only had an 8-7.

[Reonito 1,457]

"Kongo" has to be one of the best shikona ever!

[Asashosakari 19,320]

10 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Contrary to Miyabiyama at that stage, however, Terunofuji still has the potential to get the rope.

And just 3 ozeki now, not the 5 that were there during Miyabiyama's attempt. I do think that Miyabiyama's case is instructive in that 10 wins with what was judged as bad sumo didn't cut it. (Also lots of early losses, of course. Don't start your ozeki promotion quest with a 3-4 record.)
 

6 hours ago, Masunofuji said:

What did he say?

Post as in job position. Isegahama is head of the judging department and thus (at least nominally) the one in charge of deciding over his own deshi's ozeki promotion next time.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Yamanashi 3,840]

9 minutes ago, Reonito said:

"Kongo" has to be one of the best shikona ever!

Yeah, among a short list which includes "Jumonji" and "Hoo".

[Kashunowaka 300]

21 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Yeah, among a short list which includes "Jumonji" and "Hoo".

And Oho!

[Reonito 1,457]

On 24/01/2021 at 12:42, Gurowake said:

A glimpse into the madness that will be the next juryo banzuke...

If they're allowing demotions of up to a rank for the absent guys, they could do something like this, which is a lot less crazy. Only Ura would have any real cause to complain.

Tokushoryu(3-12 M8e)    J1    Akua(5-10 M13e)
Ishiura(0-0 J1e)                J2    Daishomaru(11-4 J8w)
Chiyomaru(0-0 J2e)         J3    Chiyonoo(0-0 J2w)
Enho(0-0 J3e)                   J4    Churanoumi(7-7 J3w)
Kyokushuho(0-0 J4w)     J5    Sadanoumi(5-10 M17e)
Wakamotoharu(0-0 J5e) J6    Chiyootori(0-0 J5w)
Ura(10-5 J10e)                  J7    Kyokutaisei(0-0 J7e)   

[Masunofuji 36]

19 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Post as in job position. Isegahama is head of the judging department and thus (at least nominally) the one in charge of deciding over his own deshi's ozeki promotion next time.

Oh. Well, he has a conflict of interest in this particular case though :)

[Eikokurai 3,437]

On 27/01/2021 at 18:19, Andreas21 said:

Regarding Terunofuji's chances to regain Ozeki rank next basho, I'd like to remind to Miyabiyama's non-promotion in 07/2006 at 10-14D-10. It is pretty much agreed that the main negative factor was that he fell from the Ozeki rank before.

As repromotions to Ozeki are very rare, Miyabiyama is the only good yardstick that we have, and that tells us 10 wins next basho is probably not enough. My opinion is that 12 will seal it, and 11 is unpredicatable.

I’m confident 11 will be enough and fairly positive that even 10 will be. It’s never just about the numbers. Terunofuji already has two yusho to his name, one of which only came very recently, six jun-yusho, of which three were yusho-equivalent playoff losses, and no makekoshi in any division since returning from injury. He’s dropped only 13 bouts in four Makuuchi basho, and just 23 altogether. The Kyokai is also well aware he didn’t lose his rank first time because his talent hit a wall. Miyabiyama on the other hand never won a yusho and had only one equivalent JY – that 14-1 bookended by two 10-5s during his second promotion attempt. His case wasn’t as strong. There was also the sense that the Kyokai was ‘correcting’ their mistake of promoting him too quickly initially, something which had caused some dissent at the time.

There is another case by the way: Kaiketsu. He held the rank twice in the 70s. His second Ozeki run started from M4w (14-1Y) followed by two 11-4 at Sekiwake. I’d argue this offers a useful precedent for Terunofuji.

Edit: There's an interesting postscript re: Kaiketsu and Terunofuji. Their first Ozeki promotions share some similarites. Kaiketsu was promoted on the back of just two basho in sanyaku – a 12-3Y at Komusubi and an 11-4 JY at Sekiwake. The basho before he actually got a 7-8 makekoshi, making his Ozeki run almost unique. (Only one other rikishi, Wakahaguro, reached Ozeki two basho after an MK.) Kaiketsu holds the joint record for lowest win total in an Ozeki run (30/45 or 23/30 depending on how you want to count). As we know, Terunofuji himself got his promotion after two sanyaku basho, preceded by a mere 8-7.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Kaiketsu's first promotion was in a time of need, with only two yokozuna and one ozeki on the banzuke. I'm pretty sure it shouldn't be measured by any of the "normal" standards.

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

Tochinoshin's promotion to ozeki very much followed the pattern of Kaiketsu's second promotion. Hiramaku yusho followed by double digits at sekiwake (14-1, 10-5, 13-2).

For Terunofuji if anything I think the NSK would actually be taking into consideration the fact that he fell all way the down the banzuke and made the miraculous return that he did. The return yusho definitely helps, and he's been very competitive since returning to the joi. During Teru's first ozeki career, he was also more competitive for the yusho versus Miyabiyama who never could manage better than 9-6.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

38 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Kaiketsu's first promotion was in a time of need, with only two yokozuna and one ozeki on the banzuke. I'm pretty sure it shouldn't be measured by any of the "normal" standards.

No, though the second promotion is the pertinent one, re: Terunofuji's possible return.

10 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

During Teru's first ozeki career, he was also more competitive for the yusho versus Miyabiyama who never could manage better than 9-6.

He came dangerously close to Yokozuna promotion right before he went kyujo. Had he beaten Kisenosato in that playoff during Kise's Yokozuna debut, he'd have been on a certain run the basho following and may, if the Kyokai were feeling generous, have gotten the nod with his JY.

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

4 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

No, though the second promotion is the pertinent one, re: Terunofuji's possible return.

He came dangerously close to Yokozuna promotion right before he went kyujo. Had he beaten Kisenosato in that playoff during Kise's Yokozuna debut, he'd have been on a certain run the basho following and may, if the Kyokai were feeling generous, have gotten the nod with his JY.

With four yokozuna on the banzuke already at that time I highly doubt it. To my recollection there has never been five or more yokozuna on the banzuke.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

16 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

With four yokozuna on the banzuke already at that time I highly doubt it. To my recollection there has never been five or more yokozuna on the banzuke.

There's no limit though on Yokozuna. If an Ozeki is ready, they're promoted. Had Teru beaten Kise in March, he'd have been on a cast-iron tsuna-run in May. Hakuho went 15-0 that basho, so a strong JY by Terunofuji could have been enough. In reality, he managed 12-3. That's not too shabby but, just to go all counterfactual for a moment, if he was on a proper tsuna-run he may have done better. You never know. For me, he was maybe just two wins from the rope at that time. Also, Kise was clearly injured at that point and there was already speculation about intai.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Eikokurai

[robnplunder 975]

5 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

I’m confident 11 will be enough and fairly positive that even 10 will be. It’s never just about the numbers.

+1, especially, with the recent Ozeki promotion trends.  Heck, if Terunofuji is a Japanese, even a 9 win may get him the Ozeki promotion.  

Edited January 29, 2021 by robnplunder

[Atenzan 1,081]

2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

Heck, if Terunofuji is a Japanese, even a 9 win may get him the Ozeki promotion. 

Not buying it. All 81 successful ozeki runs since they've done 15 bouts have ended on double digit wins.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Facts rarely trouble the "the NSK is biased against foreign rikishi" crowd.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 hour ago, Atenzan said:

Not buying it. All 81 successful ozeki runs since they've done 15 bouts have ended on double digit wins.

I think it was tongue in cheek. Rob has shown himself to have a sense of humour in the past.