March basho 2021

[Rocks 1,809]

10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

For practical purposes, I think only 3 apply - Tochihikari, Kirishima, and Kaio. The rest are all premodern or pre <15 days.

It's really just a matter of Sekiwake slot usually opening. Terunifuji went from Maegashira to Sekiwake with an 8-7 because the slot was there. I doubt they would have not promoted him with the same record if he went M-K-S instead. The same could be said of Takayasu's run. If he had gone 6-9 in Nov 16, dropped to M1 and come back with the same record but M-K-S I think they still promote him. I don't think they place much emphasis on the difference between K and S if the double digit wins are there. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Rocks

[Amamaniac 2,079]

12 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

29 minutes ago, kumoryu said:

Look, I'm sure there is precedent for a K - K - S - O run, although I've never figured out how to do the database search for things like that, but I bet it's very rare. The K - S - S - O runs mentioned above are much more normal I think. But I bow to superior knowledge here and will hope you are right, because I'm a huge Takayasu fan.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;columns=4&amp;n_basho=4&amp;form1_rank=M-K&amp;form2_rank=M-K&amp;form3_rank=K-S&amp;form4_rank=O

29 such promotions, though the most recent was Kaio in 2000. (I included runs starting at Maegashira since I reason the same logic applies.)

29 minutes ago, Gernobono said:

where do you get that Insight? or is this pseudopsychological Blabla?

That's a little sharper than we're used to on the forum, if you don't mind my saying. It's fairly well documented by the man himself that Shodai has had confidence issues. You can also tell a lot about such things just by looking at people. Intuition.

I think including Tochinoshin's Ozeki run in this conversation is also appropriate.  His was M3 - S - S.  Starting an Ozeki run at Maegashira is quite rare, but the run he made did include a championship finish and a runner-up finish.  

Interestingly,  the three modern era cases that appear in your very-much appreciated database search (sorry, out of likes) suggest that in at least one Ozeki promotion case, even just one runner-up finish is sufficient to help justify the decision.  Kaio, to his credit, had a yusho, but did not have a junyusho to boot.  That's why I wrote in my original post that it is all about the numbers.

As for the question of Shodai's confidence struggles, thank you too for coming to my defence.  For a second there, I thought I was somehow guilty of spreading misinformation.  

[Seiyashi 4,082]

45 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

49 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

59 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

While it doesn't quite fit the bill, the 2017 Autumn Tournament is an interesting and perhaps more dramatic case.  On day 10, frontrunner Goeido had a three-bout lead over the eventual winner, Harumafuji.  That yusho reversal ended up requiring a ketteisen playoff.  

It was either a mega car crash in terms fo throwing away a comfortable lead, or it was an amazing comeback by a determined Yokozuna, ... or both.

So you mean we should be looking at the 6-win bunch for the eventual yusho winner? 

Asahi dug up this statistic: out of 25 times a rikishi has a 2-bout lead on day 10, they went on to win the yusho on 24 occasions. The sole exception was Hakuho's Hatsu 2019 withdrawal on day 14.

朝日新聞 大相撲担当 on Twitter: "https://t.co/BrNURRg05v 貴景勝との長い相撲を制した高安。１０日目終了時で２差つけた例は、平成以降に２５例ありますが、このうち優勝を果たしたのが２４例。逃したのは１９年初場所の白鵬だけ。この時は１４日目から休場しています。つまり最後まで出場した場合は全員優勝…… 【※全文読めます】" / Twitter

EDIT: Herouth on Twitter confirms that the mega car crash we were discussing doesn't count in Asahi's statistic, because Goeido only had a 1-win lead on day 10 XD

Edited March 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,437]

13 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Asahi dug up this statistic: out of 25 times a rikishi has a 2-bout lead on day 10, they went on to win the yusho on 24 occasions. The sole exception was Hakuho's Hatsu 2019 withdrawal on day 14.

朝日新聞 大相撲担当 on Twitter: "https://t.co/BrNURRg05v 貴景勝との長い相撲を制した高安。１０日目終了時で２差つけた例は、平成以降に２５例ありますが、このうち優勝を果たしたのが２４例。逃したのは１９年初場所の白鵬だけ。この時は１４日目から休場しています。つまり最後まで出場した場合は全員優勝…… 【※全文読めます】" / Twitter

Is that 25 a random cutoff for statistical analysis purposes or have there only been 25 instances of this in all of sumo history? That seems remarkably low, tbh.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

45 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

49 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

While it doesn't quite fit the bill, the 2017 Autumn Tournament is an interesting and perhaps more dramatic case.  On day 10, frontrunner Goeido had a three-bout lead over the eventual winner, Harumafuji.  That yusho reversal ended up requiring a ketteisen playoff.  

It was either a mega car crash in terms fo throwing away a comfortable lead, or it was an amazing comeback by a determined Yokozuna, ... or both.

So you mean we should be looking at the 6-win bunch for the eventual yusho winner? 

Only if their shikona is "Harumafuji"! 

[Seiyashi 4,082]

5 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

19 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Asahi dug up this statistic: out of 25 times a rikishi has a 2-bout lead on day 10, they went on to win the yusho on 24 occasions. The sole exception was Hakuho's Hatsu 2019 withdrawal on day 14.

朝日新聞 大相撲担当 on Twitter: "https://t.co/BrNURRg05v 貴景勝との長い相撲を制した高安。１０日目終了時で２差つけた例は、平成以降に２５例ありますが、このうち優勝を果たしたのが２４例。逃したのは１９年初場所の白鵬だけ。この時は１４日目から休場しています。つまり最後まで出場した場合は全員優勝…… 【※全文読めます】" / Twitter

Is that 25 a random cutoff for statistical analysis purposes or have there only been 25 instances of this in all of sumo history? That seems remarkably low, tbh.

The Tweet itself says Heisei, so the last 30 years, basically. I wouldn't be surprised if the person in question was named Hakuho for half of those cases either. I don't have the wherewithal to verify this myself, though - AFAIK the DB doesn't support sectional analysis by basho day for multiple rikishi not involved in the same bout.

3 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

50 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

54 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

While it doesn't quite fit the bill, the 2017 Autumn Tournament is an interesting and perhaps more dramatic case.  On day 10, frontrunner Goeido had a three-bout lead over the eventual winner, Harumafuji.  That yusho reversal ended up requiring a ketteisen playoff.  

It was either a mega car crash in terms fo throwing away a comfortable lead, or it was an amazing comeback by a determined Yokozuna, ... or both.

So you mean we should be looking at the 6-win bunch for the eventual yusho winner? 

Only if their shikona is "Harumafuji"! 

:checks the banzuke: I'm sorry sir, we're out of Harumafujis, will a Hoshoryu do instead?

Edited March 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Rocks 1,809]

It certainly isn't a lock for Takayasu yet, mostly because he is Takayasu,  but I think only the worst choke ever or a major injury soon keeps it from him.  He only has 2 sanyaku left but one is Shodai who he hasn't beat in 2 years. Even with that  I don't see any of the chasers getting 12 wins. Barring a major choke and losing a playoff at 11-4 I think Takayasu has his first yusho. 

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

:checks the banzuke: I'm sorry sir, we're out of Harumafujis, will a Hoshoryu do instead?

Maybe one day, but not this time around...  

I always found it curious that Hoshoryu would state publicly that Harumafuji was his main oozumo inspiration, despite having an even more successful Dai-Yokozuna uncle.  And despite the "dis", Asashoryu is backing his nephew 101%.

[Seiyashi 4,082]

5 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Maybe one day, but not this time around...  

I always found it curious that Hoshoryu would state publicly that Harumafuji was his main oozumo inspiration, despite having an even more successful Dai-Yokozuna uncle.  And despite the "dis", Asashoryu is backing his nephew 101%.

Given Hoshoryu's build, I'm not too surprised. Asashoryu is a much more brawly fighter and it took serious strength training to get that way. Maybe he recognises that his nephew isn't cut out for that kind of sumo.

Besides, Asashoryu as the Mongolian top dog in those days probably had a hand in training Hakuho and Harumafuji behind the scenes. Asashoryu might look on Harumafuji more fondly as a protege, so Hoshoryu saying his main inspiration was Harumafuji is probably an indirect compliment.

Now if he'd said Hakuho was the inspiration, then sparks would fly, I think, considering how rivalrous Asashoryu and Hakuho got.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Koorifuu 991]

Where did this mad charger Ichinojo come from? I couldn't believe my eyes at first.

Shedding some weight really goes a long way.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Koorifuu

[Gospodin 191]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Given Hoshoryu's build, I'm not too surprised. Asashoryu is a much more brawly fighter and it took serious strength training to get that way. Maybe he recognises that his nephew isn't cut out for that kind of sumo.

The build of the young sekitori Asashoryu wasn´t that much different from Hoshoryu´s. What sets him apart from his nephew is his superior speed.

 

[Seiyashi 4,082]

2 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

The build of the young sekitori Asashoryu wasn´t that much different from Hoshoryu´s. What sets him apart from his nephew is his superior speed.

Yeah, then I consider myself lost. 

[Kintamayama 45,099]

Balagan in Makushita today. The bout between Chiyonokatsu (E44 ) against Toushouyama (W46). Monoii. Discussion. Back to their zabutons. Azumazeki Oyakata (you know who) the head shinpan declares a torinaoshi. Asakayama and Takenawa Oyakatas look at each other in disbelief. Then Azumazeki calls everyone up to the dohyo again, admitting he got it wrong. His explanation again was all over the place. Very frustrated. "I would like to explain our discussion. The gyoji pointed to the east guy but we wanted to check if it wasn't a tie. After discussing this, the west guy's foot, body, foot was out first so the win goes to the east guy as the gumbai showed."

In pictures:

"Sorry guys, my bad.."

 

"Didn't we decide on a redo?"

 

 

"Damn, I was sure we went for the redo!! Man!!"

 

"Hey,. take it easy..it's all KaioU's fault.. He should take the bullet.."

 

 

"Let's all calm down, stuff happens. Just fix the error and let's get on with it. Now, where are we going for ramen tonight?"

 

 

"His foot, body, foot was out first. Our decision was gumbaidori, just like I didn't say before.."

 

 

"CHIYONOKATSUUUU!"

Edited March 23, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Seiyashi 4,082]

2 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Balagan in Makushita today. The bout between Chiyonokatsu (E44 ) against Toushouyama (W46). Monoii. Discussion. Back to their zabutons. Azumazeki Oyakata (you know who) declares a torinaoshi. Then he calls everyone up to the dohyo again, admitting he got it wrong. Very frustrated. Then he declares that the win goes to Chiyonokatsu, as the gyoji pointed out in the first place. In pictures:

 

"Sorry guys, my bad.."

 

"Didn't we decide on a redo?"

"Damn, I was sure we went for the redo!! Man!!"

 

"Hey,. take it easy..it's all KaioU's fault.. He should take the bullet.."

"Let's all calm down, stuff happens. Just fix the error and let's get on with it. Now, where are we going for ramen tonight?"

"Our decision was gumbaidori, just like I didn't say before.."

"CHIYOTSUKASAAAAA!"

I don't mean to kick him when he's down, but if he can make that much of a public messup it's small wonder someone - maybe himself - considers him unsuitable to run Azumazeki in the long run.

[Kintamayama 45,099]

Just now, Seiyashi said:

I don't mean to kick him when he's down, but if he can make that much of a public messup it's small wonder someone - maybe himself - considers him unsuitable to run Azumazeki in the long run.

He said that in his own words and took the job on condition it would be for a year. He knows.

[lackmaker 437]

7 hours ago, Gospodin said:

...And I had my boss on the phone from Daiesho´s until almost exactly the end of the last bout...

That's just intolerable. Give your boss a written warning.

[Asojima 2,874]

21 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

He said that in his own words and took the job on condition it would be for a year. He knows.

He has never been one of the bright candles in the sumo world.

[Yubinhaad 11,676]

18 minutes ago, Asojima said:

He has never been one of the bright candles in the sumo world.

He's been in the sumo world for 21 years so he's doing something right. He won sansho and kinboshi as a rikishi and has done his best to keep the heya going in tragic circumstances and through an extremely difficult period of time. Not everyone is cut out for such a role, and him recognising that is hardly deserving of mockery.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

I've put some additional info on the "two-win lead on Day 10" topic in the trivia thread.

[SumoKitten 22]

4 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

So there is a possibility that Shodai will have to line up behind Takakeisho on the demotion train. 

Oh, I definitely could see this for the reasons you stated above. It might very well be a tight race between the two, something neither should want, but here we are. 

4 hours ago, Gernobono said:

where do you get that Insight? or is this pseudopsychological Blabla?

Compare the pre-tachiai movements/posture/facial expressions of Shodai and Takayasu for example. You need not be able to read minds to see the stark differences between the two. Shodai looks like he is already dreading what is about to happen, while Takayasu clearly showed Takakeisho his confidence that this is his ring and that he will win the match. 

Nothing pseudopsychological about it. 

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

Please don't jinx it. In team sports I have a knack for being a fan of teams excelling blowing leads. 28-3 still gives me ptsd. So, please, can we perhaps not jinx Takayasu?

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by SumoKitten
reasons, not reason. I forget the plural s

[Seiyashi 4,082]

3 minutes ago, SumoKitten said:

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

What I'm more interested in (but haven't figured out how to search for) is how many people have thrown a 2-bout lead on day 10.

Please don't jinx it. In team sports I have a knack for being a fan of teams excelling blowing leads. 28-3 still gives me ptsd. So, please, can we perhaps not jinx Takayasu?

You'll be happy to know that no one in the past thirty years has, then! The only person who's failed to win a yusho with a 2-day lead on day 10 is Hakuho in Hatsu 2019, where he famously withdrew on day 14.

[SumoKitten 22]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

You'll be happy to know that no one in the past thirty years has, then! The only person who's failed to win a yusho with a 2-day lead on day 10 is Hakuho in Hatsu 2019, where he famously withdrew on day 14.

That is great to read! 
...

...

...

So, if Takayasu throws the lead, can we start the Takayasu for yokuzuna hype train then? 

[robnplunder 975]

I enjoyed day 10 matches. Shimanoumi's shocking win against Terunofuji was a reason I keep watching sumo.   

It is finally Takayasu's turn at the yusho.   All  I can say is "it's about time!"   Perhaps, this will propel him to get his Ozeki rank back.

Hoshoryu may never be as good as his uncle but considering the current competition, he may not need to be.  If he continues to improve, who knows how far he will go.

[Seiyashi 4,082]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Balagan in Makushita today. The bout between Chiyonokatsu (E44 ) against Toushouyama (W46). Monoii. Discussion. Back to their zabutons. Azumazeki Oyakata (you know who) the head shinpan declares a torinaoshi. Asakayama and Takenawa Oyakatas look at each other in disbelief. Then Azumazeki calls everyone up to the dohyo again, admitting he got it wrong. His explanation again was all over the place. Very frustrated. "I would like to explain our discussion. The gyoji pointed to the east guy but we wanted to check if it wasn't a tie. After discussing this, the west guy's foot, body, foot was out first so the win goes to the east guy as the gumbai showed."

Video footage of said balagan here. Bonus footage of a very blatant dame-oshi by Shishi immediately afterwards:

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Benevolance 2,501]

All the naysayers coming on here talking about a K-K-S-O run for Takayasu when he can still nab it this tournament with just 7 more wins. If Goeidou could do it, then so can Takayasu! Gambare!