Natsu basho 2021

[Dapeng 236]

If Teru wins the next basho, he'll win at least three yushos in a calendar year. In my memory, it's a feat that had been achieved only by strong yokozunas. However, his last two yushos were of low-level at only 12 wins, his next basho yusho should be at least of 12 wins to be promoted. A 11 wins yusho may be considered not enough.

Hakuho rarely yushoed at 12 wins.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

If Teru wins the next basho, he'll win at least three yushos in a calendar year. In my memory, it's a feat that had been achieved only by strong yokozunas.

Very few non-yokozuna/ozeki have been left to wander the banzuke with that many yushos anyway, whether within a calendar year or not. Mitakeumi with two yushos and no ozeki promotion in sight is already near the top end of that anomalous range.

But you're otherwise correct on 12-3 being a weak yusho. I think he needs 13 minimum to make it better than 50%; any less is leaving it to how much sake the shimpanbu and YDC have had the night before.

[ViscountessNivlac 30]

15 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Hakuho rarely yushoed at 12 wins.

But he had (funny that we’re talking about him in the last tense now) quite a few that would have been won with lower scores. 2009.03 was a 15-0 that would have still been a yusho if it were a 12–3.

 

I don’t know what point I’m making here.

[Asashosakari 19,648]

4 hours ago, Morty said:

I guess that's my point. In 2017 when they both reached Juryo at about the same time all the hype was about Ura. But Sato has absolutely nailed it. The guy is 5'8", only two inches taller than Enho, yet he's going toe to toe with 6'3" monsters like Terunofuji and breaking even. In any other combat sport that would be impossible. Huge props to him, he is absolutely incredible and I hope he gets the rope

Ura may always have been atop the hype mountain, but the actual "how high will they go" debate I seem to remember from 4-5 years ago was rather Sato versus Onosho.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 hours ago, Fukuyamada said:

If Hakuho comes back next basho and wins that, none of them will be promoted.

These days that's not a small 'if'. 

[CT3* 331]

2 hours ago, Kotogouryuu said:

I suspect the "Kakuryu rule"  was actually the "Kisenosato rule", and Kakyryu just happened to achieve it first, and put the comitee in a tough spot.

This

[dada78641 884]

11 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Not sure what you're trying to say... Takakeisho can only win a three-way playoff by beating Terunofuji during it at some point. Sure he can lose such a playoff without ever facing Terunofuji, but that's not very relevant.

Well... yes, that's exactly what I said in my post lol

My point was just that some people already seemed to be counting out Endo and focusing on just Takakeisho and Terunofuji. I was just pointing out Terunofuji could even not be on the dohyo for that final bout despite how good he's looking for the yusho, sorry if it was written confusingly.

Anyway, really beautiful final bout between Terunofuji and Takakeisho. His quick first win must've really sent Terunofuji's mind into overdrive about how he'd approach the tachi-ai in the decider. He ended up being a bit more conservative and it paid off. He actually even backed off from Takakeisho when he was right at the edge of the dohyo, just to make absolutely sure he wouldn't end up getting a sudden reversal loss.

I think it's absolutely a deserved win for Terunofuji given the quality of his sumo.

One final wallpaper...

[Sue 520]

9 minutes ago, dada78641 said:

One final wallpaper...

What actually happens to the clay and tawara that make up the dohyo after the basho is over? It's all been ritually blessed, so just dumping it in a landfill seems disrespectful.

[Yamanashi 3,903]

3 hours ago, Amamaniac said:

Takakeisho looks pretty good on paper (and his in-ring performance is better than certain sumo fans predicted).

He has two Top Division championships to his name, and five runner-up finishes ... and he's only 24.  

  Hide contents

Are we seriously calling him Sato now?  

 

Ask Ganerdene what he thinks about that.

[dada78641 884]

By the way, I'm really sad there wasn't enough time in the broadcast to get another shot of Terunofuji with his tea cup.

A few pictures for posterity:

[Bombur 50]

So ... What are your thoughts on the probability of a double yokozuna promotion if Takakeisho wins the yusho in July in a third playoff with Terunofuji with a 13-2 score? And with a 14-1?

Edited May 23, 2021 by Bombur

[Gurowake 4,100]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Ask Ganerdene what he thinks about that.

Don't you mean Wakamisho?

[Gospodin 219]

12 minutes ago, Bombur said:

So... What are your thoughts about the probability of a double yokozuna promotion if Takakeisho wins the yusho in July in a playoff with Terunofuji on a 13-2 score? And with a 14-1?

No idea. I am eager to see if the kyokai gives any indication what it would take for Takakeisho. Terunofuji´s promotion on a jun-yusho with 13 wins, playoff or not, is a given, imho. You just can´t ignore his recent run. Takakeisho´s is less compelling.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Gospodin

[Yamanashi 3,903]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Don't you mean Wakamisho?

I'm out of reactions!  So, HaHa.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

13 minutes ago, Bombur said:

So... What are your thoughts about the probability of a double yokozuna promotion if Takakeisho wins the yusho in July in a playoff with Terunofuji on a 13-2 score? And with a 14-1?

No idea. I am eager to see if the kyokai gives any indication what it would take for Takakeisho. Terunofuji´s promotion on a jun-yusho with 13 wins, playoff or not, is a given, imho.

It's odd that so far, Asahi has quoted Isegahama speaking only about Terunofuji and Takayasu (?!), and absolutely zilch about Takakeisho. I hope this doesn't mean he's completely out of consideration or that no result of his will result in a promotion.

[Kotogouryuu 131]

14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It's odd that so far, Asahi has quoted Isegahama speaking only about Terunofuji and Takayasu (?!), and absolutely zilch about Takakeisho. I hope this doesn't mean he's completely out of consideration or that no result of his will result in a promotion.

It would be quite interesting if Takakeisho managed to pull off a zensho yusho in July, with Terunofuji losing only to him. That would give them something to think about.

[Ripe 73]

Just out of curiosity... if both Terunofuji and Takakeisho get promoted following next Basho, who will be considered 73rd and who will be 74th Yokozuna? Would 73rd be whomever retire first?

[Bombur 50]

15 minutes ago, Kotogouryuu said:

It would be quite interesting if Takakeisho managed to pull off a zensho yusho in July, with Terunofuji losing only to him. That would give them something to think about.

I think my absolute perfect scenario would be just that with a 13-2 Hakuho losing to both these guys. That would make for a great passing of the torch into a new era on a dignified performance for the GOAT along with the start of a most interesting rivalry. Especially when you notice that of the past 4 bashos, three were decided in a Teru-Taka match, of which 2 were playoffs and one wcould have been one.

 

Quote

Just out of curiosity... if both Terunofuji and Takakeisho get promoted following next Basho, who will be considered 73rd and who will be 74th Yokozuna? Would 73rd be whomever retire first?

I think so, as iirc it was the case for Tamanoumi and Kitanofuji.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Bombur

[Reonito 1,518]

31 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I hope this doesn't mean he's completely out of consideration or that no result of his will result in a promotion.

Pretty sure that's the case; 12-3 J/D is not much of a foundation for a rope run.

[Gurowake 4,100]

I almost think we should start the July 2021 Promotion discussion thread already since that's what this thread seems to have devolved to.  My thoughts:

I really don't think Takakeisho has much hope of promotion next basho unless he does better than he's ever done before and comes through with 14 wins.  Even a 13 win yusho, while it might have been enough in pre-Futahaguro days (25/2 and D-Y) I don't think really cuts it unless they are going to simply lower the standards knowing that Hakuho is not going to stay around much longer and don't want a complete interregnum (even though that's what we're effectively in now).  He just hasn't displayed the consistency expected for a Yokozuna, at least IMO, with even an instance as recently as 7 basho ago of an MK without kyujo.  He also did absolutely terrible in Hatsu this year; if he was really injured, he should have sat out or exited the tournament well before it was clear he was not going to somehow get 8 wins, since he was coming off two strong finishes in the basho before, and has even recovered from a demotion in the past caused by sitting one out.  I just don't see them going out of the way to give him a tsuna with such inconsistencies and a lack of very strong results.

For Terunofuji, we have seen a bit more consistency, with only one single digit win tournament since his return as a sekitori, and that being a late kyujo when was his rank was already assured.  3 Yusho in a span of 6 tournaments, even if one was from M17, is pretty good, especially with the 13-win playoff loss in November and the strong finish (beating all the Ozeki competing) in the 11-4 in Hatsu which was also a jun-yusho.  With something as simple as a 12-win yusho in the next tournament, he'll have shown that he's definitely the top dog at present, even if it's not the utter dominance of a dai-yokozuna.  Similarly, at least 13 wins and the tournament coming down to the final day would also show that fairly conclusively, even without a yusho or playoff loss.

So certainly I think the possibility is there of them both bring promoted next basho.  In Takakeisho's case, he'll need to get to the next level beyond where he is now, while Terunofuji will just need to maintain the form that he's in and not slip back any at all.

Then there's Takayasu up for Ozeki.  I'd put him in the same boat as Terunofuji in terms of performance needed - 13 wins should obviously be enough, but 12 wins and a yusho should also be sufficient given recent precedence, so long as they aren't going to be penalizing him for this being his second hard promotion like they did with Miyabiyama.  It's pretty clear to me though that Miyabiyama was simply inconsistent, and there had been doubts about it since his first, non-unaminous promotion, that really made them want to see more from him.  Takayasu now has 6 straight KKs from his return from injury, 4 of which are in sanyaku, and he's not gotten worse among those 4 tournaments.  He shows steady improvement and consistency such that he should just need to hit the target number or the yusho.

And just for completeness, there could be a Mitakeumi to Ozeki promotion if he manages a 14+ win Yusho.  That would look a whole lot like Shodai's promotion.  13 wins probably wouldn't cut it, but they might give it to him anyway, so long as it's a Yusho.

[Gurowake 4,100]

2 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Just out of curiosity... if both Terunofuji and Takakeisho get promoted following next Basho, who will be considered 73rd and who will be 74th Yokozuna? Would 73rd be whomever retire first?

Yes, you can look at the previous cases of double promotions, and the numbering depends on the order they retire.  Taiho was promoted at the same time as Kashiwado, and retired after him, so Taiho has the later number. 

If they were to retire the same basho, my guess they'd come up with some ad hoc method of determining how to number them.  There would be many possibilities, like first to enter sumo, first to get to Ozeki, sanyaku, or Makuuchi, or Juryo, all of which are reasonable methods.  Or they could be based on the timing of the announcement to retire if they happened the same basho, with those milestones as a last resort if they announce it at exactly the same time.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

8 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Just out of curiosity... if both Terunofuji and Takakeisho get promoted following next Basho, who will be considered 73rd and who will be 74th Yokozuna? Would 73rd be whomever retire first?

Yes, you can look at the previous cases of double promotions, and the numbering depends on the order they retire.  Taiho was promoted at the same time as Kashiwado, and retired after him, so Taiho has the later number. 

That poses one problem. During their tenure as yokozuna, they often are announced as "The Xth Yokozuna, Y" at formal events. If the numbering is assigned only after intai, how is their numbering decided for the purposes of announcing them?

[Gurowake 4,100]

Just now, Seiyashi said:

That poses one problem. During their tenure as yokozuna, they often are announced as "The Xth Yokozuna, Y" at formal events. If the numbering is assigned only after intai, how is their numbering decided for the purposes of announcing them?

I assume they just dispense with the numbering as part of the introduction.  Or perhaps they always have to attend the same events and have them introduced simultaneously as #73 and #74, alternating per event who gets labeled as which if taken respectively.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

13 wins should obviously be enough, but 12 wins and a yusho should also be sufficient given recent precedence

Isegahama has said he needs 13 wins and a yusho.

https://twitter.com/asahi_osumo/status/1396408813381582851

[Gurowake 4,100]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Isegahama has said he needs 13 wins and a yusho.

https://twitter.com/asahi_osumo/status/1396408813381582851

There's what they say now and what ends up happening in the event he falls just short.  Yes, I can definitely see them saying now that he needs 13 and a yusho, but I also see them saying "good enough" if he falls just short of either.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Gurowake