Nagoya Basho 2021

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 01/07/2021 at 10:48, Seiyashi said:

The outside surprises will be if Takakeisho or Mitakeumi get promoted, as they will need zenshos or 14-1s to even force the discussion. 

I’m surprised to see you place Takakeisho’s rope chances as less likely than Takayasu’s Ozeki promotion. Given the latter hasn’t managed 12 wins for three years, I’d say the former’s chances of forcing at least a conversation about him are much higher. I even think it will be given serious consideration with a lesser yusho than you believe. With his one Ozeki yusho (as part of a Jun-yusho > Yusho sequence) within the last year, I think any yusho 12-3 or above will get the YDC thinking.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Eikokurai

[dada78641 884]

Since Hakuho is planning to compete, I'm kinda assuming this is his last basho ever. Of course, we've been expecting him to retire for a long time and he still hasn't done it, but his knee is probably in an absolutely terrible state. But you know, despite his body being held together by duct tape, I'd still expect him to be seriously dangerous and fight for the yusho, perhaps with a style of sumo that's a little easier on him.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 01/07/2021 at 12:48, Benihana said:

This isn't ridiculous basho predictions 

You are absolutely correct, both Mitakeumi and Takayasu indeed have a slim chance for promotion, but...that would be a surprise equal to the spanish inquisition.

Well, Takayasu's case at least was considered possible enough for Isegahama to publicly state the conditions, together with the acknowledgement of Terunofuji as a yokozuna candidate. Personally I think Takakeisho has more chance of a surprise promotion than Takayasu, but I'm not the powers that be.

  On 01/07/2021 at 12:54, Eikokurai said:

I’m surprised to see you place Takakeisho’s rope chances as less likely than Takayasu’s Ozeki promotion. Given the latter hasn’t managed 12 wins for three years, I’d say the former’s chances of forcing at least a conversation about him are much higher. I even think it will be given serious consideration with a lesser yusho than you believe. With his one Ozeki yusho (as part of a Jun-yusho > Yusho sequence) within the last year, I think any yusho 12-3 or above will get the YDC thinking.

Not me, Isegahama seems to think so. I was as surprised as you that Isegahama didn't even acknowledge the mere possibility of Takakeisho getting promoted.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 3,904]

  On 01/07/2021 at 12:48, Benihana said:

This isn't ridiculous basho predictions 

You are absolutely correct, both Mitakeumi and Takayasu indeed have a slim chance for promotion, but...that would be a surprise equal to the spanish inquisition.

And, as Michael Palin himself said, "No one expects a Mitakeumi Zensho."

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

  On 01/07/2021 at 13:02, dada78641 said:

Since Hakuho is planning to compete, I'm kinda assuming this is his last basho ever. Of course, we've been expecting him to retire for a long time and he still hasn't done it, . . .

Who's "we"?

[Dapeng 236]

There were double promotions, but was there any triple promotion? I mean promotions to ozeki and beyond. 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 01/07/2021 at 18:16, Dapeng said:

There were double promotions, but was there any triple promotion? I mean promotions to ozeki and beyond. 

Amazingly, no: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&having=3&form1_rank=s, k&form2_rank=o. To a certain extent, it makes sense because to get a triple promotion, you'd usually need 3 sekiwake or more to promote to ozeki, which is rare enough in and of itself in the modern era. Even for all the double ozeki promotions in the 15-bout era, there were only 7 of them (basho given is their last sekiwake basho/last in the ozeki run):

• Musashimaru and Takanonami, Hatsu 1994
• Wakamisugi (Wakanohana II) and Kaiketsu (second promotion), Hatsu 1977
• Takanohana I and Wajima, Aki 1972
• Tochinoumi and Tochihikari, Natsu 1962
• Matsunobori and Wakanohana I, Aki 1955
• Yoshibayama and Kagamisato, Haru 1951
• Akinoumi and Itsutsushima, Natsu 1940

Only 1 of them - Hatsu 1977, saw both and only sekiwake on the banzuke get promoted to ozeki at the same time. Each of the other 6 instances had haridashi sekiwake: Haru 1951 had 3 sekiwake total but the other 5 all had 4 sekiwake!

(And yes: that is a double promotion for Kasugano in Natsu 1962.)

As we know, there were only ever 4 double yokozuna promotions (and no triples): Umegatani and Hitachiyama in 1903, Akinoumi and Terukuni in 1942, Taiho and Kashiwado in 1961, and Kitanofuji and Tamanoumi in 1970.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Kaminariyuki 500]

  On 01/07/2021 at 13:02, dada78641 said:

Since Hakuho is planning to compete, I'm kinda assuming this is his last basho ever. Of course, we've been expecting him to retire for a long time and he still hasn't done it, but his knee is probably in an absolutely terrible state. But you know, despite his body being held together by duct tape, I'd still expect him to be seriously dangerous and fight for the yusho, perhaps with a style of sumo that's a little easier on him.

Hakuho is definitely one of the top storylines this basho (and, there are several good ones). A fair number of folks are looking for him to yusho #45, but we shall see. If he's competing, I am certain we'll be seeing everything he's got. If there's a kinboshi in the first few days, though, not many folks will be surprised at a kyujo, particularly if there are two losses the first week. 

That said, I think he can get another yusho. If he does, the question will be if he can retire on a win, or if he won't be able to help himself and keep coming back. Really looking forward to Sunday's start!

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 01/07/2021 at 20:43, Kaminariyuki said:

If there's a kinboshi in the first few days, though, not many folks will be surprised at a kyujo, particularly if there are two losses the first week. 

If there's a kyujo it'll be intai shortly. The YDC is on his case. I don't believe shintai basho leave room for a kyujo option.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

If he goes kyujo because of a kinboshi, absolutely intai should be the result. Kyujo is for when you’re injured, not for when you’re just not up to it. Hakuho has enjoyed enough of that already.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 01/07/2021 at 12:54, Eikokurai said:

I think any yusho 12-3 or above will get the YDC thinking.

12-3 would give him 24/30. There have been only 3 yokozuna promotions in the 6-basho era with that few wins, and none since the 1960s. All post-Futahaguro promotions have been with at least 26/30. 14-1 at a minimum IMHO.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Reonito

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 01/07/2021 at 23:24, Reonito said:

12-3 would give him 24/30. There have been only 3 yokozuna promotions in the 6-basho era with that few wins, and none since the 1960s. All post-Futahaguro promotions have been with at least 26/30. 14-1 at a minimum IMHO.

That ignores the whole thing about the previous Ozeki yusho and Jun-yusho sequence that happened less than a year ago. Two Ozeki yusho and two jun-yusho in a six-basho period makes a case for the YDC to respond to.

And if the minimum is 26/30, then even Terunofuji’s promotion must be in doubt as his last yusho was a 12-3, meaning he’d also need 14-1 this time. Of course, he won’t and nor should he. Back-to-back Ozeki yusho satisfies the requirements more than enough. Win totals aren’t everything.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Reonito 1,519]

  On 02/07/2021 at 00:01, Eikokurai said:

Back-to-back Ozeki yusho satisfies the requirements more than enough.

Which Keisho won't meet. And if we're looking back, the two-win howler in January won't help. If you look at past promotions, 12-3 in the first or the second basho makes for a weak case, as does the absence of Y-Y, and you're arguing for promotion with all 3. We would have had many more promotions if that were the standard.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 02/07/2021 at 00:24, Reonito said:

Which Keisho won't meet.

That point was made about Terunofuji. Takakeisho will be judged on his own merits, as all promotion cases are. The Kyokai enjoys great discretionary power.

For the record, I haven't argued that Takakeisho will or even should be promoted with such a record, only that it's more than enough to at least make the YDC convene to debate the possibility. No way do the YDC say or do nothing if Takakeisho wins a yusho, of any description. It will be discussed, and while we may never hear how it goes, I'm confident there will be supportive voices inside the YDC who think he's done enough. How much influence those voices have is the question. 

[Asojima 2,874]

  On 02/07/2021 at 00:31, Eikokurai said:

How much influence those voices have is the question. 

The YDC is a mouthpiece for the decisions the Kyokai has already made.  Spurious comments are allowed,  but the decisions always match the Kyokai's wishes.

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

No indication anywhere, but Takayasu is among the four sekitori to have withdrawn. Akiseyama is also absent, likely his jaw is not healed 100%. Asanoyama and Ryuden bring up the rear with their suspensions.

[Asojima 2,874]

  On 02/07/2021 at 03:22, WAKATAKE said:

No indication anywhere, but Takayasu is among the four sekitori to have withdrawn. Akiseyama is also absent, likely his jaw is not healed 100%. Asanoyama and Ryuden bring up the rear with their suspensions.

It is official.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 02/07/2021 at 03:22, WAKATAKE said:

Takayasu is among the four sekitori to have withdrawn

Well, that sets him right back to square one on the (albeit unlikely) Ozeki run. Damn. It also takes away one of Terunofuji's main nemeses.

[Godango 1,014]

  On 02/07/2021 at 04:04, Eikokurai said:

Well, that sets him right back to square one on the (albeit unlikely) Ozeki run. Damn. It also takes away one of Terunofuji's main nemeses.

Beat me to it. It breaks my heart to say it, but I think that puts the line through any return to ozeki for Takayasu (I would of course love to be wrong).

A huge boon for Terunofuji's chances, the only other rikishi to have consistently troubled him since his return is Takakeisho IIRC. A boon for Takakeisho too, I suppose.

[Yamanashi 3,904]

  On 01/07/2021 at 18:47, Seiyashi said:

which is rare enough in and of itself in the modern era

It should be rare in any era.  Mathematically, there are only so many 15-0 and 14-1 scores available in a basho, to say nothing of only one actual Yusho.

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Looks like his back problems are back which explains the sudden withdrawal

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202107020000425.html

[Kaninoyama 1,818]

  On 02/07/2021 at 04:28, WAKATAKE said:

Looks like his back problems are back which explains the sudden withdrawal

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202107020000425.html

Tagonoura Oyakata: ""He has acute lower back pain, like a slipped disk, which flared up yesterday following keiko. He had trouble walking. He wanted to enter, but decided to go kyujo last night."

He's currently undergoing treatment in Tokyo, but plans to be in Nagoya by the 3rd, and a return to action is not out of the question. 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Kaninoyama

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

  On 02/07/2021 at 04:28, WAKATAKE said:

Looks like his back problems are back which explains the sudden withdrawal

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202107020000425.html

It looks as though this is a long-term issue which can flare up without warning. In November 2019 he had to withdraw with back trouble about 15 minutes before he was due to fight. Rotten luck as it will likely take him a year to get back to this position and he'll be 32 by then.

[Pitinosato 120]

What a pitty !

He looked strong the last 2-3 Basho

[dada78641 884]

  On 01/07/2021 at 18:05, Jakusotsu said:

Who's "we"?

I mean, "we" (meaning most people here) are expecting he will retire soon, and he's really just looking to close it out in as nice a fashion as possible. Poor choice of words on my part.