GTB Nagoya 2021- 127 entries and results!!

[Kintamayama 44,658]

Asanoyama's sidekick "OK, the Oyakata's asleep. We can slip out now.."

Asa: "But won't we be recognized?"

Side: "No way, I've thought of everything. Here, put this hoodie on.."

Asa: "But it barely covers half of my face.."

Side: "Don't worry, it's dark in there and we'll go in from the back.."

Asa: "I don't know.."

Side: "Come on, how many times have we gone out and no one was the wiser only this last week??"

Asa: "Four.."

Side: "So what are you whining about? Masako is waiting!"

Asa: "Masako... yes.. the enchanting Masako.."

Side: "Come on, taxi's waiting he's blowing his horn.."

Asa : "I just hope.."

Side: "COME ON ALREADYY! They close at 1 am, just for us.."

Asa: "Wait, let me get my sunglasses. They make me look shorter.."

Side (to himself): "Too bad they don't make you smarter.."

More or less what happened.

 

But this is just a reminder for smart sumo game players with sunglasses like yourselves - 

This is actually a formal invitation to play the "Guess the Banzuke" game!! 23 years, 139 bashos. Please play.

Game rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for being good at camouflages. Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied, we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's going to be your fault if you don't notice that your entry went missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted. Those are the rules, and the rules will never be changed. Just like the dohyo will never be lowered. It's an axiom. 

For rules, standings and a list of bars that close after 1 am: http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form: http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For the "new" archives: http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

See if you are on the entry list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntryList.aspx

Deadline: Monday, June14th, 2021 at 18:00 GMT ("Got My Troubles") - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT!!

Special thanks to Andoreasu who runs it, Doitsuyama who automates and maintains it and to knights who say ni. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Gurowake 4,021]

I have a feeling scores are going to be somewhat low.  While most of the madness in terms of overpromotion seems absolutely forced, it looks to me like there's a lot of things they could do with various sections depending on how they feel about having to make such huge overpromotions.   I tend to not stray far from what my algorithm says, but I have a feeling that the Kyokai will do some rather unexpected things that will throw a lot of guesses way off.

[Kintamayama 44,658]

I have a feeling we're going for the "most players ever" record. 

Edited May 28, 2021 by Kintamayama

[robnplunder 975]

On 26/05/2021 at 10:12, Gurowake said:

  I tend to not stray far from what my algorithm says, 

You have an algorithm for GTB?

The next GTB will give someone like me without an algorithm to go KK for a change.  

[Seiyashi 4,072]

2 hours ago, robnplunder said:

You have an algorithm for GTB?

The next GTB will give someone like me without an algorithm to go KK for a change.  

Also known as an excel file 

[Kintamayama 44,658]

10 days to go. Enter while you still can.. 

[Kintamayama 44,658]

Three days to go. Don't forget to enter. 

[Koorifuu 924]

OK, I don't usually like to show my lack of expertise when it comes to banzuke making, but I went for it at the very last minute so that we've got 3 digits!

Good news all around - you can all rest assured you won't be placing 100th.

[Reonito 1,385]

In!

[Kintamayama 44,658]

7 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

OK, I don't usually like to show my lack of expertise when it comes to banzuke making, but I went for it at the very last minute so that we've got 3 digits!

Good news all around - you can all rest assured you won't be placing 100th.

Back after eight years? Excellent..

[Koorifuu 924]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Back after eight years? Excellent..

I think I entered one basho in the meantime, but it seems like I've used a different username/email combination then.

Regardless, eight years? Wow, thanks for the bit of trivia.  Back to when Hakuho was in his 20s.

I think that, back then, I didn't even know that Y/O were sorted by their result on the previous basho...

[Kintamayama 44,658]

3 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

I think I entered one basho in the meantime, but it seems like I've used a different username/email combination then.

Regardless, eight years? Wow, thanks for the bit of trivia.  Back to when Hakuho was in his 20s.

I think that, back then, I didn't even know that Y/O were sorted by their result on the previous basho...

Yes, you actually appeared in one basho in September 2019..

[Koorifuu 924]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Yes, you actually appeared in one basho in September 2019..

Which didn't go all that well, if I recall correctly.

99 to 118!

It seems that the trick is leaving it on those cliffhanger numbers, just on verge of a milestone. One to go for #100! One to go for the all-time high! One to go for #50! People are attracted to those like magnets. 

It's either that, or the "last day!" warning. Or both.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 4,021]

There's always some people who wait until the last minute, perhaps partly due to procrastination, but sometimes because there's a small chance that some of the banzuke information, such as the members of sanyaku, who actually got promoted, or similar non-specific things, might be leaked in some way.  I personally just like getting my entry in as soon as the announcement is made so I can forget about it and not worry.

[robnplunder 975]

On 29/05/2021 at 00:19, Seiyashi said:

Also known as an excel file 

For someone like me, nothing's going to help.   I am still hoping for my 1st KK.  

[Gurowake 4,021]

This is my Excel data pasted into Firefox.

[Gurowake 4,021]

Hakuho(0-0 Ye)	Y
Terunofuji(12-3 Ow)	O	Takakeisho(12-3 Ow)
Shodai(9-6 Oe)	O	Asanoyama(7-5 Oe)
Takayasu(10-5 Se)	S	Mitakeumi(10-5 Ke)
Wakatakakage(9-6 M1e)	K	Meisei(8-7 M2e)
Endo(11-4 M8w)	M1	Takanosho(5-10 Sw)
Daieisho(6-9 Kw)	M2	Ichinojo(9-6 M6w)
Hokutofuji(6-9 M1w)	M3	Kotoeko(9-6 M12e)
Okinoumi(9-6 M12w)	M4	Chiyotairyu(10-5 M14w)
Hoshoryu(7-8 M5e)	M5	Onosho(7-8 M5w)
Kiribayama(6-9 M4e)	M6	Myogiryu(6-9 M4w)
Tobizaru(5-10 M2w)	M7	Takarafuji(7-8 M7w)
Aoiyama(4-3 M3e)	M8	Chiyoshoma(8-7 M11w)
Shimanoumi(7-8 M9e)	M9	Hidenoumi(5-10 M6e)
Tamawashi(7-8 M10e)	M10	Terutsuyoshi(7-8 M10w)
Kotonowaka(7-8 M11e)	M11	Tochinoshin(5-10 M7e)
Kaisei(9-6 M15e)	M12	Kagayaki(6-9 M9w)
Ura(12-3 J2w)	M13	Daiamami(7-8 M13w)
Chiyonoo(11-4 J1w)	M14	Tokushoryu(11-4 J2e)
Tsurugisho(4-11 M8e)	M15	Chiyomaru(8-7 M16w)
Ishiura(7-8 M16e)	M16	Chiyonokuni(0-4 M3w)
Yutakayama(8-7 J4e)	M17

This is the exact same data (it never left the clipboard) pasted into Edge.  I think I'll need to change to using Edge to post table-things now.

[Asashosakari 19,019]

I decided to keep the overpromotions going all the way for the maegashira:

Hakuho (Ye 0-0-15)        Y    ---
Terunofuji (O2w 12-3 Y)   O1   Takakeisho (O1w 12-3 D)
Shodai (O2e 9-6)          O2   Asanoyama (O1e 7-5-3)
Takayasu (Se 10-5)        S    Mitakeumi (Ke 10-5)
Wakatakakage (M1e 9-6)    K    Meisei (M2e 8-7)

Endo (M8w 11-4)           M1   Daieisho (Kw 6-9)
Takanosho (Sw 5-10)       M2   Ichinojo (M6w 9-6)
Hokutofuji (M1w 6-9)      M3   Kotoeko (M12e 9-6)
Chiyotairyu (M14w 10-5)   M4   Okinoumi (M12w 9-6)
Hoshoryu (M5e 7-8)        M5   Onosho (M5w 7-8)
Kiribayama (M4e 6-9)      M6   Tobizaru (M2w 5-10)
Myogiryu (M4w 6-9)        M7   Takarafuji (M7w 7-8)
Chiyoshoma (M11w 8-7)     M8   Aoiyama (M3e 4-3-8)
Kaisei (M15e 9-6)         M9   Shimanoumi (M9e 7-8)
Hidenoumi (M6e 5-10)      M10  Tamawashi (M10e 7-8)
Terutsuyoshi (M10w 7-8)   M11  Kotonowaka (M11e 7-8)
Tochinoshin (M7e 5-10)    M12  Kagayaki (M9w 6-9)
Chiyomaru (M16w 8-7)      M13  Ura (J2w 12-3 Y)
Daiamami (M13w 7-8)       M14  Tsurugisho (M8e 4-11)
Chiyonoo (J1w 11-4)       M15  Tokushoryu (J2e 11-4)
Chiyonokuni (M3w 0-4-11)  M16  Ishiura (M16e 7-8)
Yutakayama (J4e 8-7)      M17  ---

[Gurowake 4,021]

13 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I decided to keep the overpromotions going all the way for the maegashira: 

I certainly won't be surprised if they indeed promote Chiyomaru and Kaisei that much, as I messed around with various scenarios trying to promote records a similar amount, but I've yet to develop a viable algorithm for deciding exactly how they decide to make those overpromotions that aren't truly forced once they are forced to make others.  I see rikishi that better fill the gaps than those two at the ranks you have them if you discount the idea that they should get large promotions comparable to those with similar ranks and slightly higher ranks.  It's definitely one of the things that makes banzuke-making more of an art form, whereas I prefer to stick to science, which means finding enough evidence for the extent of "entrained" promotions as I've come to think of them, but they seem to be used inconsistently, so indeed an art it remains.

[Reonito 1,385]

Mine is generally similar to @Gurowake although I kept the overpromotions to minimum by slotting in Tobizaru at 4w, and I dropped Takanosho below Daieisho and Ichinojo.

[Unkonoyama 104]

6 hours ago, robnplunder said:

For someone like me, nothing's going to help.   I am still hoping for my 1st KK.  

It took me over 2 years for my first kk, good luck and keep at it

[Rocks 1,807]

Mine was very last minute so it's probably bad. Definitely demoted Tobizaru too much. :

   Yokozuna E: Hakuho Y1e (0-0-15)

         Ozeki E: Terunofuji O2w (12-3)

      Ozeki W: Takakeisho O1w (12-3)

      Ozeki E2: Shodai O2e (9-6)

      Ozeki W2: Asanoyama O1e (7-5-3)

         Sekiwake E: Takayasu S1e (10-5)

    Sekiwake W: Mitakeumi K1e (10-5)

     Komusubi E: Wakatakakage M1e (9-6)

    Komusubi W: Meisei M2e (8-7)

   Maegashira E: Endo M8w (11-4)

  Maegashira W: Ichinojo M6w (9-6)

Maegashira E2: Daieisho K1w (6-9)

Maegashira W2: Takanosho S1w (5-10)

Maegashira E3: Hokutofuji M1w (6-9)

Maegashira W3: Kotoeko M12e (9-6)

Maegashira E4: Okinoumi M12w (9-6)

Maegashira W4: Chiyotairyu M14w (10-5)

Maegashira E5: Hoshoryu M5e (7-8)

Maegashira W5: Onosho M5w (7-8)

Maegashira E6: Kiribayama M4e (6-9)

Maegashira W6: Myogiryu M4w (6-9)

Maegashira E7: Chiyoshoma M11w (8-7)

Maegashira W7: Takarafuji M7w (7-8)

Maegashira E8: Tobizaru M2w (5-10)

Maegashira W8: Kaisei M15e (9-6)

Maegashira E9: Shimanoumi M9e (7-8)

Maegashira W9: Aoiyama M3e (4-3-8)

Maegashira E10: Tamawashi M10e (7-8)

Maegashira W10: Terutsuyoshi M10w (7-8)

Maegashira E11: Hidenoumi M6e (5-10)

Maegashira W11: Kotonowaka M11e (7-8)

Maegashira E12: Tochinoshin M7e (5-10)

Maegashira W12: Kagayaki M9w (6-9)

Maegashira E13: Ura J2w (12-3)

Maegashira W13: Chiyomaru M16w (8-7)

Maegashira E14: Daiamami M13w (7-8)

Maegashira W14: Chiyonoo J1w (11-4)

Maegashira E15: Tokushoryu J2e (11-4)

Maegashira W15: Tsurugisho M8e (4-11)

Maegashira E16: Ishiura M16e (7-8)

Maegashira W16: Yutakayama J4e (8-7)

Maegashira E17: Chiyonokuni M3w (0-4-11)

[Seiyashi 4,072]

Went for this:

Hakuho	Y
Terunofuji	O	Takakeisho
Shodai	O	Asanoyama
Takayasu	S	Mitakeumi
Wakatakakage	K	Meisei
Endo	1	Daieisho
Takanosho	2	Ichinojo
Hokutofuji	3	Kotoeko
Okinoumi	4	Chiyotairyu
Kiribayama	5	Myogiryu
Hoshoryu	6	Onosho
Tobizaru	7	Aoiyama
Takarafuji	8	Chiyoshoma
Shimanoumi	9	Ura
Hidenoumi	10	Tamawashi
Terutsuyoshi	11	Chiyonoo
Tochinoshin	12	Kotonowaka
Kaisei	13	Tokushoryu
Kagayaki	14	Daiamami
Tsurugisho	15	Chiyomaru
Ishiura	16	Chiyonokuni
Yutakayama	17

I think I've placed Ura and, to a lesser extent, Chiyonoo way too high.

[Koorifuu 924]

14 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Hakuho(0-0 Ye)	Y
Terunofuji(12-3 Ow)	O	Takakeisho(12-3 Ow)
Shodai(9-6 Oe)	O	Asanoyama(7-5 Oe)
Takayasu(10-5 Se)	S	Mitakeumi(10-5 Ke)
Wakatakakage(9-6 M1e)	K	Meisei(8-7 M2e)
Endo(11-4 M8w)	M1	Takanosho(5-10 Sw)
Daieisho(6-9 Kw)	M2	Ichinojo(9-6 M6w)
Hokutofuji(6-9 M1w)	M3	Kotoeko(9-6 M12e)
Okinoumi(9-6 M12w)	M4	Chiyotairyu(10-5 M14w)
Hoshoryu(7-8 M5e)	M5	Onosho(7-8 M5w)
Kiribayama(6-9 M4e)	M6	Myogiryu(6-9 M4w)
Tobizaru(5-10 M2w)	M7	Takarafuji(7-8 M7w)
Aoiyama(4-3 M3e)	M8	Chiyoshoma(8-7 M11w)
Shimanoumi(7-8 M9e)	M9	Hidenoumi(5-10 M6e)
Tamawashi(7-8 M10e)	M10	Terutsuyoshi(7-8 M10w)
Kotonowaka(7-8 M11e)	M11	Tochinoshin(5-10 M7e)
Kaisei(9-6 M15e)	M12	Kagayaki(6-9 M9w)
Ura(12-3 J2w)	M13	Daiamami(7-8 M13w)
Chiyonoo(11-4 J1w)	M14	Tokushoryu(11-4 J2e)
Tsurugisho(4-11 M8e)	M15	Chiyomaru(8-7 M16w)
Ishiura(7-8 M16e)	M16	Chiyonokuni(0-4 M3w)
Yutakayama(8-7 J4e)	M17

This is the exact same data (it never left the clipboard) pasted into Edge.  I think I'll need to change to using Edge to post table-things now.

The most remarkable thing in your prediction?

9 maegashira went 7-8 on the previous basho.

You kept all 9 on the same exact spot.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Koorifuu

[Jakusotsu 5,876]

1 hour ago, Koorifuu said:

The most remarkable thing in your prediction?

9 maegashira went 7-8 on the previous basho.

You kept all 9 on the same exact spot.

Apart from 2011-07 (match-fixing purge, 9 cases) and 2021-03 (Covid quarantine, 8 cases), the banzuke with the most Maegashira keeping their exact rank was 2006-11 (5 cases, 9 incl. sanyaku).