Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2021

[Reonito 1,519]

2 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Sorry, you're right, I should have specified that I was checking M2w (since E-W might make a difference when cutting it this close).  The only other M2e to get screwed out of Sanyaku was Futasegawa way back in 1942.

E-W can definitely matter, though in this instance having a denied M2e only strengthens the case.

[Katooshu 3,332]

Hokutofuji also got denied a sanyaku place with an 11-4 at M3

[Yamanashi 3,903]

Is there some evidence that the banzuke-makers are getting "stingier"?

M1w 9-6: 40 results, only to M1e in 1942, 1974 and ... the last three! [Tochinoshin 2015, Tamawashi 2018, Hokutofuji 2019].

However, a counter-example:  No M1e with an 8-7 has been denied Sanyaku since before 1970.  That seems to be "settled case law", as they say.

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

If we're talking about "fair", Asanoyama should have been listed as Maegashira already (with only 4 basho suspension to compensate if need be).

[Seiyashi 4,108]

To kick off this thread's conversion into GTB, at least this time round it's not as wretched to try and fill in the joi, although the lower single digits are posing mild problems.

On balance I don't think the banzuke committee is going to go for the haridashi route, because there's just a complete lack of impetus to do so, and they've shown themselves to be getting a bit conservative in their sanyaku promotions. That leaves us with almost the bare minimum 8-man sanyaku (if I understand it correctly, the smallest possible is 6, with 2x YO), and hence 17 full maegashira ranks. M1 to M3 is straightforward, and M4 and 5 are pretty much ok as well (I have Kiribayama/Ura at M4, and Wakatakakage and Chiyoshoma at M5), but there the mild devilry begins.

Daieisho at M6e is right about where he should be, but Onosho, Takarafuji and Shimanoumi more or less should be in the exact same spot as well. In any case, it's not too difficult to just pad them a half rank around each to complete M6 and M7. 

Terutsuyoshi at M8e and Ishiura at M11w bracket the "fell out of heaven" pile, consisting of Okinoumi, Aoiyama, Endo, Hidenoumi, Tobizaru, and Chiyotairyu. Kotoeko's horror result lands him just behind Ishiura, but ahead of Myogiryu; the M12 pair of Tochinoshin and Kagayaki with a bare minimum MK fall one rank together to end at M13.

Tsurugisho's KK at M15 means he probably comes ahead of Yutakayama and Mitoryu at M14e, and then everyone else who went MK in the bum end of the banzuke ends up around here. Except Ichiyamamoto, whose bare minimum KK puts him at M16W in my book. Tokushoryu is makujiri again, at the expense of Chiyonokuni, who goes down as expected.

[Reonito 1,519]

10 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

No M1e with an 8-7 has been denied Sanyaku since before 1970.  That seems to be "settled case law", as they say.

Not many (any?) recent instances where no regular slot was open, though. I believe we can say promotion for a 9-6 M1e is settled case law, but we're waiting for an 8-7 precedent.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Reonito

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Except Ichiyamamoto, whose bare minimum KK puts him at M16W in my book. Tokushoryu is makujiri again, at the expense of Chiyonokuni, who goes down as expected.

One of the things I learned from my dismal GTB result last time was that promotees aren't usually place ahead of maku'uchi KKs. Which I suppose would mean that Ichiyamamoto should be ahead of Yutakayama and Mitoryu.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

One of the things I learned from my dismal GTB result last time was that promotees aren't usually place ahead of maku'uchi KKs. Which I suppose would mean that Ichiyamamoto should be ahead of Yutakayama and Mitoryu.

I was about to type a response amounting to "really?" and then I went back and checked the last year's worth of banzuke and couldn't find anyone with a makuuchi KK under a juryo promotee.

Back to the drawing board I guess...

[Reonito 1,519]

What I've learned from @Asashosakari is that however low you think the Juryo guys should go, it's not low enough

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

I wasn't too bothered about Ichinojo probably missing out on a sanyaku promotion. "What the heck" I thought, "If he fights like that again in September he'll force his way in".

And then I thought  "Oh wait, this is Ichinojo..."

[Koorifuu 1,020]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

What I've learned from @Asashosakari is that however low you think the Juryo guys should go, it's not low enough

Won't get lower for Mitoryu than staying in juryo altogether. A plot twist!

[Bombur 50]

Does someone have the new Hakuho fish picture?

[Gurowake 4,106]

There's another possibility for the Sekiwake (again, not one I think they'll take, but it seems hypothetically possible) - They leave Takayasu at Sekiwake.  He did go 7-6 after all, and the maegashira he would have faced did so poorly he can be assumed to have been able to beat one, right?  With 7 wins they're allowed to just move him down the Sekiwake hierarchy rather than demote him.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,519]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There's another possibility for the Sekiwake (again, not one I think they'll take, but it seems hypothetically possible) - They leave Takayasu at Sekiwake.  He did go 7-6 after all, and the maegashira he would have faced did so poorly he can be assumed to have been able to beat one, right?  With 7 wins they're allowed to just move him down the Sekiwake hierarchy rather than demote him.

Amazingly, of the 5 times this happened in the 6-basho era, 2 were by Goeido! Though it was really tough to find alternative candidates on those banzuke.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

There's another possibility for the Sekiwake (again, not one I think they'll take, but it seems hypothetically possible) - They leave Takayasu at Sekiwake.  He did go 7-6 after all, and the maegashira he would have faced did so poorly he can be assumed to have been able to beat one, right?  With 7 wins they're allowed to just move him down the Sekiwake hierarchy rather than demote him.

So that makes 3 sekiwake still? I don't see them doing that of their own accord, to be honest.

But we could all be eating crow in two months if the shimpan get a bit drunk at Terunofuji's promotion afterparty.

[Koorifuu 1,020]

On 19/07/2021 at 06:22, Yamanashi said:

Is there some evidence that the banzuke-makers are getting "stingier"?

M1w 9-6: 40 results, only to M1e in 1942, 1974 and ... the last three! [Tochinoshin 2015, Tamawashi 2018, Hokutofuji 2019].

However, a counter-example:  No M1e with an 8-7 has been denied Sanyaku since before 1970.  That seems to be "settled case law", as they say.

Might it be because the Y/O corps have been more unreliable than perhaps any other time in recent history? Not having 4 or 5 pretty much guaranteed losses to superhumans could make the difference between 3-12 and 8-7. I mean, I've been following ozumo for about 10 years and I sure feel like there's been more joi KKs in these last few years than in the rest of the time put together.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Koorifuu

[Kashunowaka 300]

13 hours ago, Gurowake said:

There's another possibility for the Sekiwake (again, not one I think they'll take, but it seems hypothetically possible) - They leave Takayasu at Sekiwake.  He did go 7-6 after all, and the maegashira he would have faced did so poorly he can be assumed to have been able to beat one, right?  With 7 wins they're allowed to just move him down the Sekiwake hierarchy rather than demote him.

I don't think it's even hypothetically possible, since there are four other rikishi who are legitimate candidates for a sekiwake slot. Hence no need to under-demote Takayasu.

 

5 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Might it be because the Y/O corps have been more unreliable than perhaps any other time in recent history? Not having 4 or 5 pretty much guaranteed losses to superhumans could make the difference between 3-12 and 8-7. I mean, I've been following ozumo for about 10 years and I sure feel like there's been more joi KKs in these last few years than in the rest of the time put together.

Number of kachi-koshi per basho for M1-M5

Average number of KK per basho, grouped by year looks something like this. No visible indication of any trend that I can see.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Kashunowaka

[Koorifuu 1,020]

14 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

Number of kachi-koshi per basho for M1-M5

Average number of KK per basho, grouped by year looks something like this. No visible indication of any trend that I can see.



Thanks - I got to admit this is a shock to me, it sure hasn't felt like it.

Maybe I should've included K/S in my statement, as having underperforming / understaffed Y/O ranks also makes it theoretically easier for junior sanyaku to KK and keep their spots, thus not opening their slots to good joi KKs. I guess that a few years ago there were a bunch of joi KKs, sure, but slots would open up as sekiwake - and especially komusubi - kept getting battered by the Y/O... More than nowadays. But I'm sure data will prove me wrong again.

I sure remember those times were getting promoted to sanyaku / joi area would be an almost guaranteed kiss of death... if your shikona wasn't Toyonoshima. Hakuho, Harumafuji, Baruto, Kotooshu, Kotoshogiku, Kisenosato, eventually Kakuryu - all in good shape - didn't leave a lot of room for heroics.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 4,106]

Looking at M1-M5 is probably going to be slightly biased, as times when there are 10-11 competing sanyaku, M4 and M5 do not face many, if any, of them, and have little chance to face even the maegashira higher ranked than them (though there are a few such bouts), and as such can be expected to have more KKs, while the M1-M3 can be expected to have fewer, which is generally how things worked for a while with 5-7 strong competing Y+O.  If the junior sanyaku managed KKs in those situations, the joi maegashira were unlikely to.  One can look at the 3 consecutive basho of 2 debuting Sekiwake in 2016 as evidence of the massive amount of churn there was in the top ranks when there are a good number of solid upper sanyaku.

It's difficult to say whether how things are now is the "normal" state of things, but it's one of those things that changes over time.  It just depends on the level of dominance particular rikishi have with respect to the field, as well as luck in managing to put together an Ozeki run.  Takayasu and Mitakeumi just haven't quite capable of Ozeki promotion recently, but they'll clog up the lower sanyaku as long as they put up a reasonable amount of wins.  If they just were Ozeki instead, and certainly with their records they could maintain such a rank if they got it, there would be more turnover of the lower sanyaku.  Takanosho also would have been able to maintain an Ozeki rank the past year should he have been randomly gifted it, and there might be others as well (Hokutofuji?).  Certainly we shouldn't be promoting every KK Sekiwake, but when the lower sanyaku clogs because people keep putting up 8 or 9 wins, it's a sign that there is too much parity at the top level, where not enough rikishi can be truly dominant enough to get the nod up to Ozeki and make room for other junior sanyaku. 

[Gurowake 4,106]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So that makes 3 sekiwake still? I don't see them doing that of their own accord, to be honest.

 

33 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

I don't think it's even hypothetically possible, since there are four other rikishi who are legitimate candidates for a sekiwake slot. Hence no need to under-demote Takayasu.

I think it is hypothetically possible in that it doesn't technically break any rules.  Again, I don't think it's likely to happen, but it might be something they consider with enough sake in their belly and a desire to have a 2nd competing Sekiwake.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think it is hypothetically possible in that it doesn't technically break any rules.  Again, I don't think it's likely to happen, but it might be something they consider with enough sake in their belly and a desire to have a 2nd competing Sekiwake.

Even so I'd rate the possibility of Meisei making a (admittedly not very deserving) sekiwake debut higher than Takayasu occupying the same Sw spot. There's no real need to keep Takayasu at S anyway, seeing as his ozeki run is back to square one and he doesn't need to be at sekiwake to start one anyway.

[Kashunowaka 300]

31 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Thanks - I got to admit this is a shock to me, it sure hasn't felt like it.

Maybe I should've included K/S in my statement, as underperforming / understaffed Y/O also makes it theoretically easier for junior sanyaku to KK and keep their spots, thus not opening their slots to good joi KKs. I guess that a few years ago there were a bunch of joi KKs, sure, but slots would open up as sekiwake - and especially komusubi - kept getting battered by the Y/O... More than nowadays. But I'm sure data will prove me wrong again.

Let's have a look at kachi-koshi among junior sanyaku. Looks like a rising trend if you look at the last 10 years, but historically there is nothing abnormal going on. 

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Looking at M1-M5 is probably going to be slightly biased

Yes, it's a rather crude comparison since the number of sanyaku varies, so does heya affiliations etc. 

[Gurowake 4,106]

5 minutes ago, Kashunowaka said:

historically there is nothing abnormal going on.

However, there is a clear pattern of it being lower than average in the 2012-2018 range, which is consistent with the time period of dominance of the previous 4 Yokozuna, along with usually enough Ozeki to be 6-7 of them.  It was much higher before 2012, because that's when Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku, and Kisenosato were promoted, and they greatly increased the KK % of junior sanyaku during their times before making Ozeki.  That's the typical pattern people remember if they started watching in that time period.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Gurowake

[Koorifuu 1,020]

Thanks a lot, @Kashunowaka & @Gurowake.

So the current situation isn't abnornal in the bigger picture, we were just used to an unique decade of utter Y/O dominance for the best part.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 minute ago, Koorifuu said:

So the current situation isn't abnornal in the bigger picture, we were just used to an unique decade of utter Y/O dominance for the best part.

I'm not so sure it's quite that straightforward.

Interestingly, 2003 (the year of Asashoryu's promotion and Musashimaru's retirement) saw quite the dip. You would have thought that with Musashimaru mostly sidelined and Asashoryu making a charge up the ranks, there would be a higher KK % there.

The other three points of interest are the troughs of 1998 (the promotion of Wakanohana) and 1964 (the promotion of Tochinoumi), and the peak of 1970 (the double promotion of Kitanofuji and Tamanoumi). It sort of boggles the mind that there's an S/K KK boost when there's two ozeki kicking ass and taking names.

Perhaps combining the two - S/K + joi - gives a better picture? The eye test suggests that they seem to complement each other - 1970 has a trough in the joi, but that's not so clear cut for 1998 and 1964.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Seiyashi