Kyushu 2021 discussion

[Joaoiyama 307]

That Chiyonokuni scream was so unexpected, in the final push he yelled "ORA!" from the top of his lungs. 

[Seiyashi 4,072]

And now for something completely different:

Kakuryu is today's guest commentator on NSK, it seems. When Abi was up, he was asked about Abi's time as a tsukebito of his, and the gyoji officiating the Ishiura-Tochinoshin bout was wearing an outfit with stylised Kakuryu as the mon embroidered upon it, which of course the camera obligingly zoomed in on.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,437]

So Abi falls to his first loss and it’s against Hokutofuji, who came into the bout with back-to-back defeats. He’s now 5-2 and back in the hunt, while Abi is 6-1 and in the main chasing pack. Just Terunofuji and Takakeisho can end the day still undefeated.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Hakuryuho 334]

1 hour ago, Joaoiyama said:

Can we start talking about Oho?

He has all the tools physically.

For me the reason why he is excelling this basho (so far) is the incorporation of more yotsu-sumo instead of just relying on his tsuki/oshi skills.

I always thought it was a damn shame he was trained to be a mainly tsuki/oshi fighter, he is very tall with long limbs and could definitely put these physical features to good use by fighting on the belt more often.

I think he's starting to transition towards an increase in yotsu techniques imployed and it might pay dividends.

I think it would greatly benefit his chances of ever making Yokozuna like his grandpa.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Hakuryuho

[Eikokurai 3,437]

59 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Just Terunofuji and Takakeisho can end the day still undefeated.

And they do. Terunofuji can secure his fourth 8-0 start in succession tomorrow, which by my reckoning will move him tied 2nd in the ‘nakabi kachikoshi streaks’ list. As far as I can tell only Asashoryu and Taiho managed four consecutive 8-0 starts, and only Hakuho has managed longer streaks. Asashoryu did it twice.  Could be wrong.
 

*Futabayama also did four zensho in a row but in 11- and 13- bout tournaments, so didn’t  technically get kachikoshi at 8-0.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, Katooshu said:

2 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

Can we start talking about Oho?

Big, strong guy. A bit slow, but calm and composed. He can also apply his power effectively in different scenarios and I think has the look of someone who will eventually settle into makuuchi.

I don't rate his brothers very highly though, especially the current Naya.

I think what our friend #Joaoiyama meant was: why aren't Forum members giving Oho some credit for his performance in this tournament.  He is currently leading the Juryo yusho race with a perfect 7-0 record!  That is by far the best start of his sekitori career (i.e., having to fight 15 days).

He dispatched the always-dangerous Enho on yesterday, which didn't make me love him any more than before.  But I give him credit for staying calm and letting his superior size do its thing.  But what really impressed me about Oho was the way he fought Churanoumi today.  That was the most determination I've seen out of Oho since ... forever!  

Has he turned a corner?  Is this his breakthrough tournament?  He just seems to want to win more now – although trying to keep a clean slate alive could also be providing motivation.

I have not reached the point where I'm convinced he can keep winning, but I will say that IF he does (i.e., gets a zensho yusho), he will most likely get promoted up to the Top Division in January, which would be a great narrative for the NSK.  Taiho's grandson ends 2021 with a Juryo championship, and starts 2022 with a shinnyumaku Top Division debut!

[Akinomaki 40,098]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I think they still want a Japanese Yokozuna, and will declare any result with 13 wins good enough to at least be on a run.

Any JY automatically gets the YDC into considering a yusho run, Isegahama might say something different, but anything they say after this basho is moot anyway. If TKK has a convincing yusho next basho after a JY this basho, they'll have to discuss the promotion, because he'd fulfill the criteria.

They surely want a Japanese yokozuna and debilitating injuries in the past haven't caused them to deny Terunofuji the promotion.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Akinomaki

[Katooshu 3,182]

If Taka puts up 3Y, 1D, 2J in a year, with 100 percent KK, he certainly won't be denied either.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[Terunoshoryu 6]

22 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Any JY automatically gets the YDC into considering a yusho run, Isegahama might say something different, but anything they say after this basho is moot anyway. If TKK has a convincing yusho next basho after a JY this basho, they'll have to discuss the promotion, because he'd fulfill the criteria.

They surely want a Japanese yokozuna and a history of debilitating injuries in the past haven't caused them to deny Terunofuji the promotion.

For this they will probably have to wait for Kiribayama or Hoshoryu. 

[Katooshu 3,182]

Happy to see Tomokaze 4-0 at Ms37. Finally feels like he's getting there again...

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[Ripe 70]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

They surely want a Japanese yokozuna and debilitating injuries in the past haven't caused them to deny Terunofuji the promotion.

No, debilitating injury didn't cause them to deny Terunofuji... but they still needed him to go 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y, 12-3 Y and 14-1 J before they promoted him. They required Kisenosato to go 13-2 J, 13-2 J, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J and 14-1 Y before they promoted him and need for Japanese yokozuna was even greater at that time. Kakuryu had to get 14-1 D, 14-1 Y and everyone before that since Asahifuji needed back to back wins. The last person promoted with a single Y and JY was Hokutoumi in '87 and even him stringed a 11-4, 12-3 Y and 13-2 J.

So no, a JY here followed by Y in January will most likely not be enough considering his 8-7 score in September. As I said before, Takakeisho had to prove he can string at least 3 if not 4 double digit results to be considered for promotion.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

39 minutes ago, Ripe said:

So no, a JY here followed by Y in January will most likely not be enough considering his 8-7 score in September. As I said before, Takakeisho had to prove he can string at least 3 if not 4 double digit results to be considered for promotion.

While I agree with this, I wonder what will happen if Takakeisho pulls 2x Y here and in January. I don't know if the YDC can or will want to deny promotion with back to back yusho, but in the context of what you said about a year's worth of good results, Takakeisho's streakiness might make a promotion on just two back to back yusho really speculative.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Ripe 70]

16 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

While I agree with this, I wonder what will happen if Takakeisho pulls 2x Y here and in January. I don't know if the YDC can or will want to deny promotion with back to back yusho, but in the context of what you said about a year's worth of good results, Takakeisho's streakiness might make a promotion on just two back to back yusho really speculative.

I believe they would promote him with back to back Yusho... especially if Terunofuji is still there on Day 15. But with Terunofuji going kyuyo in one of the tournaments... well, I'd say it's a coin toss. They could go either way.

But it's rather curious that they kept quiet about his promotion chances following his playoff loss in May... they gave conditions for Terunofuji's promotion but not for Takakeisho's. So yes, they might choose to deny him even with D followed by Y which is what got Kakuryu his promotion. That said, Kakuryu never went kadoban or missed a bout as an Ozeki.

[Godango 973]

32 minutes ago, Ripe said:

I believe they would promote him with back to back Yusho... especially if Terunofuji is still there on Day 15. But with Terunofuji going kyuyo in one of the tournaments... well, I'd say it's a coin toss. They could go either way.

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

While I agree with this, I wonder what will happen if Takakeisho pulls 2x Y here and in January. I don't know if the YDC can or will want to deny promotion with back to back yusho, but in the context of what you said about a year's worth of good results, Takakeisho's streakiness might make a promotion on just two back to back yusho really speculative

I don't see a world where any ozeki.earning back to back yusho, of any score, with any Rikishi missing, is denied promotion. I can't imagine there's a precedent for that. 

[Ripe 70]

1 minute ago, Godango said:

I don't see a world where any ozeki.earning back to back yusho, of any score, with any Rikishi missing, is denied promotion. I can't imagine there's a precedent for that. 

There is a precedent. It may not be recent but Futabayama was denied promotion following three consecutive zensho yushos (two of them as Ozeki) back in late 30's... it took a fourth consecutive zensho to get him promoted. So yes, if they want to deny anyone promotion they could always use that to "justify" their reasoning.

[Godango 973]

1 minute ago, Ripe said:

There is a precedent. It may not be recent but Futabayama was denied promotion following three consecutive zensho yushos (two of them as Ozeki) back in late 30's... it took a fourth consecutive zensho to get him promoted. So yes, if they want to deny anyone promotion they could always use that to "justify" their reasoning.

Touche, but all the same, I don't think it would fly in the modern era. 

[Kamitsuumi 389]

44 minutes ago, Ripe said:

There is a precedent. It may not be recent but Futabayama was denied promotion following three consecutive zensho yushos (two of them as Ozeki) back in late 30's... it took a fourth consecutive zensho to get him promoted. So yes, if they want to deny anyone promotion they could always use that to "justify" their reasoning.

I couldn't find any evidence supporting this claim. SumoDB and Wikipedia both lists M3 9-2J > S 11-0Y > O 13-0Y > O 13-0Y > Y

[Hankegami 439]

57 minutes ago, Ripe said:

There is a precedent. It may not be recent but Futabayama was denied promotion following three consecutive zensho yushos (two of them as Ozeki) back in late 30's... it took a fourth consecutive zensho to get him promoted. So yes, if they want to deny anyone promotion they could always use that to "justify" their reasoning.

8 minutes ago, Kamitsuumi said:

I couldn't find any evidence supporting this claim. SumoDB and Wikipedia both lists M3 9-2J > S 11-0Y > O 13-0Y > O 13-0Y > Y

I was going to post the same. According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futabayama_Sadaji), Futabayama had to string three zensho yusho (one as Sekiwake and two as Ozeki) to be promoted, not four. He won the Natsu 1936 (Sekiwake), Haru & Natsu 1937 (Ozeki) and was at last promoted to Yokozuna in May 1937, that is just after the Natsu basho. In his previous tournament (Haru 1936) he went Jun-Yusho with a 9-2 score. So, apparently Futabayama just had to satisfy the good 'ole classic "two Yusho as Ozeki" to get his rope, although I agree they were unusually harsh on him. It's most probably because, at 25 years old, he was going to be the second-youngest Yokozuna at that point of Sumo history just behind Umegatani II alone (who was promoted basically because Hitachiyama perorated his cause). The years of 21-years-old Yokozuna were yet to come.

Back to the main topic of the day, I would be extremely surprised if the NSK denies the rope to a Takakeisho bringing a standard double Yusho (Kyushu-Hatsu, hopefully). This is not 2020 anymore, and even a blind man could see that the Hamster apparently has a taste for the Kyushu basho (Yusho in 2018 and 2020), this means he gives good promises of at least one Yusho per year. If he's ever going to win this basho, granted. However, I believe that in case of victory the NSK will finally speak. There are two reasons for this. First, it's an open secret they are constantly hoping for a Japanese Yokozuna, and Takakeisho happily fits the bill. Second, there is no other serious contender for the rope at the moment. A bunch of guys will surely get a run in the years to come, but in the meanwhile Terunofuji will be quite alone for a good long time. So, they simply cannot reason like they can have a better Yokozuna candidate in the near future even if they deny the rope to Takakeisho. Several Yokozuna had modest careers, and with his two (four, if successful) Yusho, Takakeisho is already way ahead of poor Futahaguro.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Hankegami

[Eikokurai 3,437]

The only possible way in which back-to-back yusho won’t get an Ozeki promoted is if they’re both mediocre yusho, say 11-4 > 11-4, and there have hardly ever been 11-4 yusho so that just isn’t going to happen. 

[Yamanashi 3,779]

In today's bout against Okinoumi, Takakeisho's hands never got within 10 cm of the clay before the tachi-ai.  Are they giving him a pass?  He is so fat-bellied and short armed* that a hands-down tachi-ai might put him at an absurdly low angle on his initial thrust; is that it?

 

* With all due respect.

[hakutorizakura 609]

I like today's Ichinojo. A rolling boulder. And Chiyonokuni is back in his honey badger mode!

[hakutorizakura 609]

41 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

In today's bout against Okinoumi, Takakeisho's hands never got within 10 cm of the clay before the tachi-ai.  Are they giving him a pass?  He is so fat-bellied and short armed* that a hands-down tachi-ai might put him at an absurdly low angle on his initial thrust; is that it?

 

* With all due respect.

Nobody cares about hands touching the dohyo anymore after Kotoyuki retired 

[Ripe 70]

2 hours ago, Kamitsuumi said:

I couldn't find any evidence supporting this claim. SumoDB and Wikipedia both lists M3 9-2J > S 11-0Y > O 13-0Y > O 13-0Y > Y

 

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

I was going to post the same. According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futabayama_Sadaji), Futabayama had to string three zensho yusho (one as Sekiwake and two as Ozeki) to be promoted, not four. He won the Natsu 1936 (Sekiwake), Haru & Natsu 1937 (Ozeki) and was at last promoted to Yokozuna in May 1937, that is just after the Natsu basho. In his previous tournament (Haru 1936) he went Jun-Yusho with a 9-2 score. So, apparently Futabayama just had to satisfy the good 'ole classic "two Yusho as Ozeki" to get his rope, although I agree they were unusually harsh on him. It's most probably because, at 25 years old, he was going to be the second-youngest Yokozuna at that point of Sumo history just behind Umegatani II alone (who was promoted basically because Hitachiyama perorated his cause). The years of 21-years-old Yokozuna were yet to come.

Back to the main topic of the day, I would be extremely surprised if the NSK denies the rope to a Takakeisho bringing a standard double Yusho (Kyushu-Hatsu, hopefully). This is not 2020 anymore, and even a blind man could see that the Hamster apparently has a taste for the Kyushu basho (Yusho in 2018 and 2020), this means he gives good promises of at least one Yusho per year. If he's ever going to win this basho, granted. However, I believe that in case of victory the NSK will finally speak. There are two reasons for this. First, it's an open secret they are constantly hoping for a Japanese Yokozuna, and Takakeisho happily fits the bill. Second, there is no other serious contender for the rope at the moment. A bunch of guys will surely get a run in the years to come, but in the meanwhile Terunofuji will be quite alone for a good long time. So, they simply cannot reason like they can have a better Yokozuna candidate in the near future even if they deny the rope to Takakeisho. Several Yokozuna had modest careers, and with his two (four, if successful) Yusho, Takakeisho is already way ahead of poor Futahaguro.

My mistake... I knew there was someone who wasn't promoted following a back to back Yusho as Ozeki and I honestly thought it was Futabayama. I was correct that it happened and it actually happened twice!

First time was to Tamanishiki in early 30's after he won three consecutive yusho's as Ozeki, two of them 9-2 followed by 10-1. The second time was a bit more recent, from 1950 when Chiyonoyama wasn't promoted following a 13-2 Y and 12-3 Y...

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, hakutorizakura said:

And Chiyonokuni is back in his honey badger mode!

Indeed!  That was a spirited bout with hometown favourite Shohozan.  The stadium was packed with Shohozan supporters; I'm afraid they were left disappointed...

Things aren't looking good for the ageing veteran (37 yo., n.b., 13 months older than Hakuho).  He spent a full 12 months down in Juryo, and finally made it back up to the Top Division.  This was supposed to be a glorious second (technically "third") coming for Shohozan.  And prior to the tournament, he was promising big things for his fans.

Looks like "home court advantage" is not going to keep him there.  He's 1-6 after seven days, which is a pretty deep hole...

[Seiyashi 4,072]

1 hour ago, Amamaniac said:

Indeed!  That was a spirited bout with hometown favourite Shohozan.  The stadium was packed with Shohozan supporters; I'm afraid they were left disappointed...

Things aren't looking good for the ageing veteran (37 yo., n.b., 13 months older than Hakuho).  He spent a full 12 months down in Juryo, and finally made it back up to the Top Division.  This was supposed to be a glorious second (technically "third") coming for Shohozan.  And prior to the tournament, he was promising big things for his fans.

Looks like "home court advantage" is not going to keep him there.  He's 1-6 after seven days, which is a pretty deep hole...

I still stand by my prediction, made some time ago, that this is Shohozan's last basho. It's also Nishonoseki's (ex-Wakashimazu's) last as an elder, which means that Shohozan will in all probability be the new Nishonoseki-oyakata come January. His poor results, combined with the fact that he made it back to makuuchi just in time for one last show for his hometown fans, only fortifies this conclusion.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Seiyashi