Kyushu 2021 discussion

[Taliesin 68]

Oh, when I said Shodai vs Abi I meant final day. Should have quoted the previous post. As for sekiwake situation, maybe I misunderstood, but I just don't see who gets the slot then. If Meisei is 7-8 it still should be possible to not demote him, but if it's worse...

[Seiyashi 4,097]

9 minutes ago, Taliesin said:

Oh, when I said Shodai vs Abi I meant final day. Should have quoted the previous post. As for sekiwake situation, maybe I misunderstood, but I just don't see who gets the slot then. If Meisei is 7-8 it still should be possible to not demote him, but if it's worse...

Takanosho, especially if he goes 10. If he goes 11 with no other promotee ahead of him I don't think even a YSK 14-1 Abi can displace him.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Taliesin 68]

Oh, I see now. "He" in my first post was referring exactly to Takanosho. Sorry for causing a misunderstanding.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Oh!

Yeah, Takanosho is pretty much the first in line to any sanyaku slot that opens up, unless both Daieisho and Wakatakakage pull off perfect finishes, and even then if Takanosho goes 11-4 over their 8-7s then he's probably going to jump them to sekiwake. A 9-6 is a bit trickier, and might see Takanosho miss out completely especially if Meisei limits his damage to 7-8.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Or did you mean the quality of the sumo?

I was referring to the possibility of a playoff.  For me anyway, when the championship is decided before Day 15, any real excitement dissipates immediately.  Playoffs hold fans in suspense beyond the last regulation bout of 15-day tournaments, which is ... exciting.  Do you disagree?

In addition to that, I believe there is excitement to be found when an unexpected wrestler emerges to contend for the title, possibly even steal said title.  Can you say in all honesty that you saw Abi doing as well as he has done so far, and predicted that he would win the Top Division championship after spending months in the lower divisions?  I sure didn't see that "possibility". 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Eikokurai 3,437]

On 16/11/2021 at 20:40, Eikokurai said:

Hopefully those two can keep the yusho race interesting fighting well below their natural ranks. They’ll avoid the Y/O until they start threatening to steal the cup so they’ve a nice opportunity.

22 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I was referring to the possibility of a playoff.  For me anyway, when the championship is decided before Day 15, any real excitement dissipates immediately.  Playoffs hold fans in suspense beyond the last regulation bout of 15-day tournaments, which is ... exciting.  Do you disagree?

In addition to that, I believe there is excitement to be found when an unexpected wrestler emerges to contend for the title, possibly even steal said title.  Can you say in all honesty that you saw Abi doing as well as he has done so far, and predicted that he would win the Top Division championship after spending months in the lower divisions?  I sure didn't see that "possibility". 

Not sure I follow you. Surely then Abi’s breakout performance so far has made it exciting enough for you regardless of how it ends? 
 

And see above: I did indeed predict a strong performance from Abi (and Hokutofuji) as early as day 3. 

[Seiyashi 4,097]

49 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

I was referring to the possibility of a playoff.  For me anyway, when the championship is decided before Day 15, any real excitement dissipates immediately.  Playoffs hold fans in suspense beyond the last regulation bout of 15-day tournaments, which is ... exciting.  Do you disagree?

In addition to that, I believe there is excitement to be found when an unexpected wrestler emerges to contend for the title, possibly even steal said title.  Can you say in all honesty that you saw Abi doing as well as he has done so far, and predicted that he would win the Top Division championship after spending months in the lower divisions?  I sure didn't see that "possibility". 

If you are excited for lower-ranked wrestlers to pull a fast one, then Ryuden and Asanoyama should be keeping you quite happy for the next year or so at least. I'm frankly not very happy that they are doing so, because it feels perverse that they get a better shot at the yusho from lower in the division due to the disparity in fighting condition. Far better to just have suspended any and all privileges of their rank including pay, put them at the bottom of makuuchi/the joi, and frozen their rank movements thereafter.

Prior to his match with Takakeisho, Abi at M15 has not only not had a single match against the sanyaku, he has not even had a match against anyone Terunofuji would fight. I wonder what happened to the old approach of gradually throwing better opponents at a low-ranked upstart; maybe Abi's ex-sanyaku regularity and non-injury-related demotion warranted them skipping the formalities. In which case, Asanoyama at least should be cleaning house as well if and when he makes it back to makuuchi.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Kujo 116]

Chiyotairu just found out the meaning of "let sleeping bears lie". Giving Toshinoshin a harite only made him mad (the return harite by 'shin was no joke).

[Gurowake 4,087]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Ichinojo's case in Aki 2014 is a little more curious, because arguably Aminishiki, four ranks above him with a 10-5 KK and a gino-sho, should have been a better promotee. That, or Tochiozan, two ranks above him with 11-4, but no special prize. Maybe the committee found it hard to argue against two special prizes and a bout with Hakuho, and Ichinojo was catapulted to S1w despite being the lowest ranked of the sanyaku promotees on that banzuke.

Ichinojo to Sekiwake was widely expected.  42 of 68 players put him at the correct position, and one even had him at S1e. 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=201411

I do remember many people being kinda shocked about it, but those who actually knew how banzuke were put together were confused about such a reaction, because it's pretty obvious.

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Gurowake

[nagora 88]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Prior to his match with Takakeisho, Abi at M15 has not only not had a single match against the sanyaku, he has not even had a match against anyone Terunofuji would fight. I wonder what happened to the old approach of gradually throwing better opponents at a low-ranked upstart; maybe Abi's ex-sanyaku regularity and non-injury-related demotion warranted them skipping the formalities

I think they should have had the courage of their convictions - if an M15 gets to day-15 with the joint top score then have a play off. Artificially jumping him from facing people around his rank straight to an Ozeki and then immediately to the Yokozuna looks something like panic. Now they effectively have the final set up for day-14.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Not sure I follow you. Surely then Abi’s breakout performance so far has made it exciting enough for you regardless of how it ends? 
 

And see above: I did indeed predict a strong performance from Abi (and Hokutofuji) as early as day 3. 

I apologise for my inability to communicate the idea that having a playoff (and potentially an upset victory) on Senshuraku is more exciting than Terunofuji securing victory on Day 14.  I don't know how else to phrase it...

As for Abi's performance so far, I will admit that he has impressed me.  But I won't say that it created any immediate excitement (those early wins were to be expected) ... until it became clear that he was a real contender.  Today's bout vs Takakeisho was the first time that I felt palpable excitement from one of his bouts (the previous day's bout against Tamawashi came close though).  

Bouts at the end of a tournament and those versus "elite" opponents provide a higher level of uncertainty.  Putting together a string of wins definitely adds to the excitement from the viewpoint of probability (the odds of winning go down with each consecutive win – barring other considerations).

Congrats btw spotting Abi's unique opportunity to strike gold in this tournament given his banzuke ranking. 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Amamaniac

[Seiyashi 4,097]

6 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Ichinojo to Sekiwake was widely expected.  42 of 68 players put him at the correct position, and one even had him at S1e.  Your analysis betrays quite a lack of understanding of how the banzuke is made.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=201411

 

And that's why I suck at GTB  The ultimate joke is probably this: I fed Aki 2014 into my spreadsheet for GTB and the sanyaku came out perfect, 10 for 10 - including Ichinojo at S1w because of a score differential of 11 vs Aminishiki's 5. So even my computer (or at least past me) is smarter than me!

Got most of the maegashira wrong, though, for a measly 36.

Right now, though, Abi and Takanosho's 13-rank differential can't really be made up at least as far as I understand the banzuke. Even in the worst case where Takanosho loses out and Abi gets the yusho with a 14-1, Takanosho is still 3 ahead of Abi and front runner for the sekiwake slot. If Takanosho wins one more it's as good as in the bag - or at least Abi isn't taking that bag away from him, if the Daieisho snub is anything to go by.

[Gurowake 4,087]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I fed Aki 2014 into my spreadsheet for GTB and the sanyaku came out perfect, 10 for 10 - including Ichinojo at S1w because of a score differential of 11 vs Aminishiki's 5. So even my computer (or at least past me) is smarter than me! 

Yep, rank/record numbers are generally very predictive of the order of placement on the next banzuke.  When they end up close and there are other factors, things might be changed, but that situation was fairly clear cut.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Just now, Gurowake said:

Yep, rank/record numbers are generally very predictive of the order of placement on the next banzuke.  When they end up close and there are other factors, things might be changed, but that situation was fairly clear cut.

I plead looking only at the wins and not both the wins and the losses. It's easy (at least for me) to forget to consider that a 9-6 counts for more than twice an 8-7 despite being "only" one win more.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

19 minutes ago, nagora said:

I think they should have had the courage of their convictions - if an M15 gets to day-15 with the joint top score then have a play off. Artificially jumping him from facing people around his rank straight to an Ozeki and then immediately to the Yokozuna looks something like panic. Now they effectively have the final set up for day-14.

I think the opposite, actually: they should have just Ichinojo-ed him. Let's say if any lower maegashira makes it to say day 8-9 perfect or in the yusho race, boot out the lowest performing sanyaku/joi member in the remaining intra-joi/sanyaku bouts and test the upstart progressively. And they really shouldn't have dropped the ball on this: Ichinojo was a relatively unknown debutant until he started kicking ass and taking names, whereas Abi (and after him, Asanoyama) are ex-sanyaku stalwarts who fell not due to injury but to suspension (i.e. no degradation of their fighting ability commensurate to their place in the banzuke). It boggles my mind how they waited so long to test him and then plonked Takakeisho straight in front of him; you're right, it definitely looks like panic.

Your system IMO feels like if someone in juryo gets to day 15 with the same joint score as in makuuchi, then they have a playoff to decide who gets the cup. Makuuchi might as well be two divisions, to be honest, especially since it's not like intra-divisional boundaries are hard ones in sumo.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,087]

19 minutes ago, nagora said:

I think they should have had the courage of their convictions - if an M15 gets to day-15 with the joint top score then have a play off. Artificially jumping him from facing people around his rank straight to an Ozeki and then immediately to the Yokozuna looks something like panic. Now they effectively have the final set up for day-14.

I'm not sure what you mean by "courage of their convictions".  They have quite evidently lately been trying very hard to prevent low-ranked maegashira from winning the Yusho without being tested as much as makes sense based on the progression of how things go in the tournament.  Tokushoryu got a bit of an easier schedule because no one expected him to win nearly as many matches as he did late in the tournament given his history, and given how things went since then, either Hakuho possessed him after he withdrew, or he just got extremely lucky.  Terunofuji then for his M17 Yusho had to face the top 3 sanyaku still in the tournament during the home stretch.  And as noted, Ichinojo also pulled down some top sanyaku opponents on his debut, at a time when no one knew what it would take to stop him.  Abi is not Tokushoryu; he's had multiple of KKs in the joi.  He needs to be seriously tested like Terunofuji and Ichinojo were, as he cannot be expected to lose any of his matches in the way it was assumed Tokushoryu would.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Abi is not Tokushoryu; he's had multiple of KKs in the joi.  He needs to be seriously tested like Terunofuji and Ichinojo were, as he cannot be expected to lose any of his matches in the way it was assumed Tokushoryu would.

Would you do it in the same way as was done here - i.e. jump him straight to Takakeisho and Terunofuji? It feels like at least Mitakeumi and Ichinojo, who are available and have superior H2H against Abi, would be decent tests for him before matching him against the big guns. I don't think we doubt that the yokozuna and ozeki are stern tests, but whether or not they were the only tests available.

[Gurowake 4,087]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Would you do it in the same way as was done here - i.e. jump him straight to Takakeisho and Terunofuji? It feels like at least Mitakeumi and Ichinojo, who are available and have superior H2H against Abi, would be decent tests for him before matching him against the big guns. I don't think we doubt that the yokozuna and ozeki are stern tests, but whether or not they were the only tests available.

I definitely would put him against the other contenders in the Yusho race rather than not.  I was expecting based on the old way of doing things that they'd give him Takanosho Day 13 and the Mitakeumi and Takakeisho the last two days, but it makes far more sense and ins more consistent with how they've come to approaching the situation to put him directly in the Yusho race, especially when there are matches among the top 4 that are somewhat dead rubbers except for possibly Mitakeumi's promotion to Ozeki, and I'm sure they're quite happy giving Mitakeumi easier matches on paper to make that more likely to happen, just like they seem to be fine with giving Ozeki in trouble easier matches if it means putting Yusho contenders against each other instead of those Ozeki.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

58 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "courage of their convictions".  They have quite evidently lately been trying very hard to prevent low-ranked maegashira from winning the Yusho without being tested as much as makes sense based on the progression of how things go in the tournament.  Tokushoryu got a bit of an easier schedule because no one expected him to win nearly as many matches as he did late in the tournament given his history, and given how things went since then, either Hakuho possessed him after he withdrew, or he just got extremely lucky.  Terunofuji then for his M17 Yusho had to face the top 3 sanyaku still in the tournament during the home stretch.  And as noted, Ichinojo also pulled down some top sanyaku opponents on his debut, at a time when no one knew what it would take to stop him.  Abi is not Tokushoryu; he's had multiple of KKs in the joi.  He needs to be seriously tested like Terunofuji and Ichinojo were, as he cannot be expected to lose any of his matches in the way it was assumed Tokushoryu would.

I don’t think it’s “lately”, it’s always been the way that a low-ranker who is threatening to steal a yusho gets fed to the top rankers towards the end in an attempt to either trip him up or make him earn the trophy. Check out the schedule fought by Takatoriki when he won from M14 back in 2000: no sanyaku until day 11 and then suddenly five in five days.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=18&b=200003

Or Kotofuji (M13) in 1991: nine days of hiramaku opponents and then thrown to the lions. Surprisingly early actually.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=1303&b=199107

It’s generally only when they’re trailing a senior ranked guy that they get to avoid the Y/O, at least until it becomes impossible to ignore them anymore.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Eikokurai

[nagora 88]

49 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

It feels like at least Mitakeumi and Ichinojo, who are available and have superior H2H against Abi, would be decent tests for him before matching him against the big guns. I don't think we doubt that the yokozuna and ozeki are stern tests, but whether or not they were the only tests available.

That's what I was getting at: they should either slide the pressure up in stages or play the ranking chips where they fell. This "oh crap, he's doing well, throw him at the top guys quickly" seems very half-arsed. I'd personally prefer them to increase the pressure more gradually than the way they've done it here. It's inelegant.

[Yamanashi 3,860]

I pointed out earlier in the basho that Takakeisho can't reach far enough to get both hands down w/o falling over.  He got called for it this time, and in his "legal" tachi-ai he didn't, either -- he put alternate hands down.

[RabidJohn 1,793]

Abi fought the guys around him on the banzuke for the first 5 days. Since then they've put him against progressively higher ranked opponents. The matches against Ura and Tamawashi were yusho eliminators, as was today's bout against Takakeisho. 

No one is more surprised than me that it all seems to make sense...

[Seiyashi 4,097]

25 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Abi fought the guys around him on the banzuke for the first 5 days. Since then they've put him against progressively higher ranked opponents. The matches against Ura and Tamawashi were yusho eliminators, as was today's bout against Takakeisho. 

No one is more surprised than me that it all seems to make sense...

The matches against Chiyotairyu and Tobizaru were still bizarro gimmes, though. I do generally agree with nagora that they should start pairing leading maegashiras against each other regardless of rank after nakabi, and not leave it to after day 10 to start looking for higher-ranked opponents to eliminate them with. As it is, yes you've gotten rid of two chasers but you have not enough time left to deal with the last upstart.

[nagora 88]

25 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Abi fought the guys around him on the banzuke for the first 5 days. Since then they've put him against progressively higher ranked opponents. The matches against Ura and Tamawashi were yusho eliminators, as was today's bout against Takakeisho. 

No one is more surprised than me that it all seems to make sense...

On day 12 Abi (ranked #37) hadn't fought anyone higher than #19. The next day he was facing #3. That feels a bit less than "progressively" to me. I suppose that's a bit of hindsight and I guess he did actually lose the day 7 bout.

Well, tomorrow will be interesting - Sunday, probably not so much. Unless Abi wins tomorrow, that is. Then Sunday might produce some fireworks.

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

I pointed out earlier in the basho that Takakeisho can't reach far enough to get both hands down w/o falling over.  He got called for it this time, and in his "legal" tachi-ai he didn't, either -- he put alternate hands down.

That is very true.  My issue was that getting called for it may have influenced the outcome of the bout.  

Concentration is quite important in sports in general, and oozumo in particular.  Getting stopped at the tachiai for failing to drop both hands at the shikiri does potentially break a wrestler's concentration.  The bout before, the gyoji called matta(s) three times (that is crazy IMHO)!  Mind you, Endo still ended up winning the bout even though he was the one being singled out for the infraction.  A professional athlete, it could be argued, is able to clear their minds and reset.  But you never know if their concentration does get broken.

There were seven matta(s) called in the Top Division today.  That's the more than each of the previous days... significantly more.  Tamajiro called four of those false starts.  Where I take exception is that gyoji should not be messing with wrestlers' concentration at this stage in a tournament.  If they want to take issue with wrestlers' failure to get both hands down at the initial charge, they should set the tone early in the tournament.  As you point out, this has always been an issue with Takakeisho.  

When you get to the final days, gyoji have no business interfering.  Just let the wrestlers do their thing (...within reason).