Kyushu 2021 discussion

[Gurowake 4,021]

With the 2 Sd100TDs, they intentionally split up the preceding match of the 2 Sd rikishi ahead of them on the banzuke in the first two rounds so that they didn't meet each other, and then decided to schedule them against each other for round 3.  I think the last time we had something like this, they waited until round 5, but I haven't checked that previous occurrence to see if they actually would have been scheduled every previous round.  With both of them fighting higher ranked opponents in the first two rounds, and those higher ranked opponents having no reason to not face each other, it's clear they would have this time around.  The very first time there were two of them (which was the first time there were any of them at all) they faced each other round 1 (Yutakayama beat Asanoyama IIRC), but they apparently don't want to do that any more.

[Amamaniac 2,078]

Shodai suffered his third loss (second straight loss) today.  His brand of defensive or reactive sumo is proving to be costly.  Many of his bouts end up being won or lost at the bales.  This creates two problems: (1) he risks getting injured – as has happened in the past, and (2) many of his bouts end with close decisions that require or beg for monoii – as we saw today.

Watching the replay (c/o Kintamayama) of the regulation bout, I'd say that Takanosho went down before Shodai stepped out.  Pause the replay just as Takanosho's shoulder hits the bales, and it is plain to see that Shodai hasn't stepped out yet.  But the gyoji awarded victory to Takanosho.  Luckily the ringside judges stepped in, and called for a torinaoshi redo (instead of reversing the decision).  That was a reasonable way to proceed IMHO.

However, Shodai got caught once again trying to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.  While the call was close yet again (arguably Shodai's foot was below the surface of the ring before Takanosho touched down), there was no monoii.  The ringside judges – not to mention the clock – had lost patience with "Shodai shenanigans".

Shodai is admittedly a magician at the bales.  But for his own sake, he needs to find ways to win inside the ring, that is to say, work on offensive rather than defensive sumo!

 

[jsolo 106]

Found an article from 2018 Yomiuri Shimbun regarding Abi's win today via tokkurinage over Sadanoumi. Link to article appeared in a discussion thread here at the time, 

Tokkurinage

 

[Amamaniac 2,078]

1 hour ago, jsolo said:

Found an article from 2018 Yomiuri Shimbun regarding Abi's win today via tokkurinage over Sadanoumi. Link to article appeared in a discussion thread here at the time, 

Tokkurinage

Good old Aminishiki!  Good old Shuji Miki!!

[Benevolance 2,484]

Shout out to Kotoeko for having such a nice mawashi colour. I find it so soothing. Maybe he finds it soothing, too, which is why he's got no fight in him?

[Eikokurai 3,437]

11 hours ago, Ripe said:

Almost nonexistent. Even if he goes 14-1 with only loss being to Terunofuji. He need a Yusho or at the minimun a Doten to be under consideration for promotion. Single regular Jun-Yusho will not count. Or at least it won't lead to a public announcement of him needing to do X in following basho...

Kisenosato was a unique case but even for him promotion did not came after a single Jun-Yusho followed by Yusho. It came as a result of a full year of double digit results with multiple Jun-Yusho's capped with a Yusho (13-2 J, 13-2 J, 12-3 J, 10-5, 12-3 J, 14-1 Y). Takakeisho's last six basho results do not come even close to that. Terunofuji was another unique case... his promotion came following 14-1 J, but also won the two previous basho. But in both of those cases, we had someone who proved he could be consistant in having great results. Something that Takakeisho failed to do so far.

While I agree that Takakeisho isn’t as consistent as Kisenosato (tbf, few Ozeki can make that claim—the man was a freak), he has something Kise never had: two pre-promotion yusho. Kisenosato’s case was based on an accumulation of 12 JYs across five years followed by a yusho. I’m of the mind that two yusho and five JYs in four years (all at M1 or above) is comparable, and that’s before we count the JY/Y that would come from this run. That would amount to a total of three yusho and six jun-yusho in four years, including three pairs of back-to-back J/JYs. I’m not going to say it’s a sure thing, because it’s grey enough it could go either way, but I’m convinced it’s a long way from “almost non-existent”. He has a case with that record behind him.

 

Edit: Just to be clear, because re-reading your post I think you may have misunderstood mine, I’m not suggesting he will get promoted after a strong JY this time, only that it could start a run. i.e. If he gets the yusho in January, then a JY this November will be sufficient to support it.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Katooshu 3,182]

I would hardly be shocked and certainly with something like 13-2 J/ and a Y next basho a promotion would be the topic of much discussion.

Though I wouldn't be particularly enthusiastic about promoting him. His numbers over the previous 2 basho are about as bad as it gets for someone still at ozeki, and while he has won 2 cups his first yusho came 3 years ago as a komusubi, so I'm not sure how much weight it carries for a yokozuna run now. If we go back that far, then it must be considered that he was demoted from ozeki as well.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[Eikokurai 3,437]

8 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

I would hardly be shocked and certainly with something like 13-2 J/ and a Y next basho a promotion would be the topic of much discussion. Though his form coming into this basho was poor, with 9 wins over the previous 2 tournaments, and one of his yusho came 3 years ago as a komusubi, so I'm not sure how much weight it carries for a yokozuna run now. If we go back that far, he also got demoted from ozeki......

He got demoted from Ozeki because of injury, not ability. The Kyokai know this. They don’t make their decisions in a vacuum.

[Katooshu 3,182]

The ability to avoid injury or perform despite injury is a key part of sumo. He is still having similar issues and just in July he managed 1 win, lost the next day, then withdrew, after withdrawing in the first tournament of the year as well. It's an ongoing issue and his reliability hasn't been impressive. I don't know if this matter, or his demotion in particular, will be seen as any less relevant than him yushoing 3 years ago as a komusubi, and whatever his record this tournament and the next there will be a 1-2-12 and an 8-7 in proximity, which are numbers you don't see so close to the promotion of the last several yoks IIRC (and you have to consider that he'd only have 1 yusho on his run).

On the other hand, I think it's clear that when he's on his game he's no worse than the #2 in sumo, and that he's capable of beating anyone and going all the way to the cup. His record is patchy but there are many good results. If he pulls off a J/Y over the next 2 basho I think promotion must at least be discussed, and that in itself might count as him having been on a run. If he manages something like 13-2J/15-0, who would  really be all that surprised at a promotion? He'd at least be performing far beyond anyone not named Terunofuji.

Still, I don't think his case would be fully convincing: patchy record from the start of his ozeki tenure, 9 wins combined in the 2 basho preceding the J/Y, a previous ozeki demotion, and only 1 yusho on the run.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[Reonito 1,385]

43 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

there will be a 1-2-12 and an 8-7 in proximity, which are numbers you don't see so close to the promotion of the last several yoks IIRC

Correct; the year leading up to the last ten promotions has featured almost entirely strong records. Hakuho and Akebono did each have a withdrawal, but of course left no doubt with back-to-back yusho.

[Ripe 70]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

While I agree that Takakeisho isn’t as consistent as Kisenosato (tbf, few Ozeki can make that claim—the man was a freak), he has something Kise never had: two pre-promotion yusho. Kisenosato’s case was based on an accumulation of 12 JYs across five years followed by a yusho. I’m of the mind that two yusho and five JYs in four years (all at M1 or above) is comparable, and that’s before we count the JY/Y that would come from this run. That would amount to a total of three yusho and six jun-yusho in four years, including three pairs of back-to-back J/JYs. I’m not going to say it’s a sure thing, because it’s grey enough it could go either way, but I’m convinced it’s a long way from “almost non-existent”. He has a case with that record behind him.

 

Edit: Just to be clear, because re-reading your post I think you may have misunderstood mine, I’m not suggesting he will get promoted after a strong JY this time, only that it could start a run. i.e. If he gets the yusho in January, then a JY this November will be sufficient to support it.

No, I understood you... yes, a JY now and a Y in January might get him promoted (I doubt it, but there is a slight possibility) but that discussion will only came after his potential win in January. Not before than and almost certainly not after a mere JY in November. I doubt anyone relevant from NSK will come out and say that he need to do "x" in January in order to get the rope following a JY. They might come out and require a win if he got a D, but not after a JY. So if he get on a tsuna run, it will be a secret one.

As for his two previous Yusho counting... why would they? Terunofuji won two Yusho in a row and he didn't get promoted, they still required a good showing in following basho (which he got) in order to promote him. So how much will a win nearly three years ago be worth if 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y and 12-3 Y were not? Especially considering Takakeisho only got 8-7 in September...

[Morty 1,483]

2 minutes ago, Ripe said:

No, I understood you... yes, a JY now and a Y in January might get him promoted (I doubt it, but there is a slight possibility) but that discussion will only came after his potential win in January. Not before than and almost certainly not after a mere JY in November. I doubt anyone relevant from NSK will come out and say that he need to do "x" in January in order to get the rope following a JY. They might come out and require a win if he got a D, but not after a JY. So if he get on a tsuna run, it will be a secret one.

As for his two previous Yusho counting... why would they? Terunofuji won two Yusho in a row and he didn't get promoted, they still required a good showing in following basho (which he got) in order to promote him. So how much will a win nearly three years ago be worth if 13-2 D, 11-4 J, 12-3 Y and 12-3 Y were not? Especially considering Takakeisho only got 8-7 in September...

I kind of agree - to be on a Tsuna run next basho he will need either a yusho or doten this basho. A JY won't cut it.

[Gurowake 4,021]

18 minutes ago, Morty said:

I kind of agree - to be on a Tsuna run next basho he will need either a yusho or doten this basho. A JY won't cut it.

I think they still want a Japanese Yokozuna, and will declare any result with 13 wins good enough to at least be on a run.

[WAKATAKE 2,644]

Ahh, the never ending speculation of whether a good performance that is not a YUSHO will start a tsuna run or not...

[Seiyashi 4,072]

If you ask me, considering Takakeisho has only ever once strung together two back to back double digits as ozeki, and the NSK's silence when he was theoretically also on a tsuna run in Nagoya with a 12-3 D from Natsu, nothing short of an outright yusho will trigger an obligatory statement from the NSK/YDC regarding Takakeisho's promotability. I have a feeling the reason for the snub in Nagoya is because the NSK is well aware that Takakeisho is more limited, streaky, and injury-prone than your typical tsunatori candidate.

[Thorbjarn 214]

Nobody among officials seemed very eager to promote Takakeisho when he was winning his second Yusho while at Ozeki. I remember that they weren't even sure to promote him with a second Yusho. He probably needs back to back tournament victories and none of those should be 11-4 or worse, one of those at least 13 wins. 

First and most importantly I hope the little Bowling ball is healthy for an extended period of time. Then I think his main purpose for now should be pushing Terunofuji to good / great performances, to be the rival. There is going to be the next ace or group of top guys within the next years, Takakeisho might be a part player in this group aswell, until then we need some fun at the top. I fail to see anyone else in this role, but Takakeisho, when healthy, seems a good rival to Terunofuji. I hope both can keep it up for this tournament and 2022 & 2023. 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Thorbjarn

[Joaoiyama 307]

Can we start talking about Oho?

[Swami 245]

On 15/11/2021 at 17:42, Kotogouryuu said:

How would you say he compares to others with a total of six basho of experience in sumo?

He showed some promise on his way up to juryo, but not to the degree that had some thinking he was the next big hope.  Unless he improves dramatically from that first day showing, I don't see him going much higher.  Quite enough some ex-college rikishi breeze through the ranks and then hit the wall, either at juryo or at makunouchi, so Hokuseiho's case is slightly different. 

Someone previously compared him to a young Akebono but I disagree.  Akebono worked very hard to keep his hips as low as possible, arguably that was Akebono at his best between 1990 and 1993 before injuries and too much weight on top affected his balance adversely.

Swami

[Tigerboy1966 1,417]

6 minutes ago, Swami said:

Someone previously compared him to a young Akebono but I disagree.

One similarity is that they both lost their first bout in juryo. So did Kisenosato, Asahoryu, Wakanohana etc so let's not jump to conclusions based on one bout. The lad was horribly nervous and possibly carrying an injury.

[Joaoiyama 307]

Why is no one screaming "yosho" while Terunofuji performs the dohyo iri?

[Jakusotsu 5,876]

Just now, Joaoiyama said:

Why is no one screaming "yosho" while Terunofuji performs the dohyo iri?

Well, there's a certain virus...

[Joaoiyama 307]

1 minute ago, Jakusotsu said:

Well, there's a certain virus...

Silly me 

[Katooshu 3,182]

I'd be very surprised if Hokuseiho reached his peak after 6 basho. He turned pro as an 18 year old out of high school, with a trajectory of steady progression in his amateur days, and made juryo at only 19. He didn't enter as a relatively matured 23 year old college grad (and most of them still don't max out after 6 tournaments).

Sure, he's clumsy and slow, but also a physical freak and very powerful when he gets a hold of the belt, as many faster and more polished opponents (including multiple with sekitori experience) found out in his sweep of toriteki yusho. Unless he's incurred a serious long-term injury, I expect him to settle in comfortably to makuuchi eventually. Note that he also lost his first matches in 2 of his makushita tournaments (0-2 -> 5-2, 0-1 --> 6-1), so the 0-1 in juryo hardly shows that he's out of his depth in that division.

As for the Akebono comparisons - the body is similar, but the sumo is nothing alike.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[Katooshu 3,182]

47 minutes ago, Joaoiyama said:

Can we start talking about Oho?

Big, strong guy. A bit slow, but calm and composed. He can also apply his power effectively in different scenarios and I think has the look of someone who will eventually settle into makuuchi.

I don't rate his brothers very highly though, especially the current Naya.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Katooshu

[jsolo 106]

Kyushu November Basho--Links and Statistical Blog Post for Day 6

Results, standings, match articles, Kimarite statistics, time of match statistics, Top Rank Performance, Maegashira v san'yaku, and more.

Today there is a link to a tachiai.org article on Day 3 (5 and 6) of the Jonokuchi Basho, with video from the 5 matches of the rikishi who are still undefeated, including a blurb on Daishojo (Jk3w), quite a story.

Also some links regarding Abi's incredibly rare Kimarite, for those who missed my earlier post.

Enjoy

Day 6 Kyusho November Basho Blog Post