Results GTB- Kyushu Basho 2021- 139 entries, 11 newbies

[Kintamayama 45,496]

Drring drrring.. Drrring srrring Driiing..driiing drrring driing..

"You have reached Hakuhou Shou's phone. He cannot answer the phone at the moment. He may not answer this number ever again. Have a good day!"

Terunofuji : "Hello?? Hello? "

Hakuhou taps him on the back.

"Is it me you're looking for?"

Terunofuji: "I just called to say  I'm sad to hear you are retiring, but you're not answering the phone so I'll try again later."

Hakuhou, knocks him on the head: "You're in charge now.."

Terunofuji: "Help.."

 

This is a formal invitation to play the "Guess the Banzuke" game!! 23 years, 141 bashos. Please play.

Game rules: Guess the Banzuke. Simple. You get two points for a bulls-eye and one point for just getting the rank right. You get no points for suddenly retiring. Tiebreakers - Most total guesses, then we check the banzuke backwards - getting the lower half right will be important.  The most correct guesses in the last ten places will win the tiebreaker. If still tied, we go up a ranking at a time like a penalty shootout. It's up to you to check if you are on the list of entries. It's going to be your fault if you don't notice that your entry went missing in the Internet void. No late entries will be expected or accepted. Those are the rules, and the rules will never be changed. Just like the dohyo will never be lowered. It's an axiom. 

For rules, standings and GOATS: http://www.dichne.com/Guess.htm

For the nifty entry form: http://sumodb.sumoga...b/GTBEntry.aspx

For the "new" archives: http://sumodb.sumoga...gtbarchive.aspx

See if you are on the entry list: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBEntryList.aspx

Deadline: Monday, October 25th, 2021 at 18:00 GMT ("GOAT Mauls Terunofuji") - PLEASE NOTE-THIS IS ONE WEEK BEFORE THE OFFICIAL BANZUKE ANNOUNCEMENT!!

Special thanks to Andoreasu who runs it, Doitsuyama who automates and maintains it and to Hakuhou for the good times.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Seiyashi 4,108]

This is the first basho since I started playing that I'm not winging in my entry ASAP. Just too many things up in the air at the moment.

[maorencze 144]

Oh boy, this...THIS Clusterf*@k !!!

M6 through M18 is a total crapshoot (and that's assuming NSK dont go 3+ Sekiwake and/or 3+ Komusubi)

Hoping for a kachikoshi

[Reonito 1,518]

11 hours ago, maorencze said:

Oh boy, this...THIS Clusterf*@k !!!

M6 through M18 is a total crapshoot (and that's assuming NSK dont go 3+ Sekiwake and/or 3+ Komusubi)

Hoping for a kachikoshi

What reason would there be for any extra san'yaku slots?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

16 hours ago, maorencze said:

Oh boy, this...THIS Clusterf*@k !!!

M6 through M18 is a total crapshoot (and that's assuming NSK dont go 3+ Sekiwake and/or 3+ Komusubi)

Hoping for a kachikoshi

What reason would there be for any extra san'yaku slots?

For further context, 3 sekiwake on the Aki banzuke wasn't the surprise that it seemed to be, nor is it any sort of precedent for lenient junior sanyaku promotions. I think most of the GTB players were entertaining the possibility as it was a pretty good reason not to have a demoted Asanoyama choke up sanyaku, but relatively few of us thought the NSK would actually go ahead and do it.

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

20 hours ago, maorencze said:

Oh boy, this...THIS Clusterf*@k !!!

M6 through M18 is a total crapshoot (and that's assuming NSK dont go 3+ Sekiwake and/or 3+ Komusubi)

Now I'm worried, as I thought this one was pretty straightforward.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

On 04/10/2021 at 19:28, maorencze said:

Oh boy, this...THIS Clusterf*@k !!!

M6 through M18 is a total crapshoot (and that's assuming NSK dont go 3+ Sekiwake and/or 3+ Komusubi)

Now I'm worried, as I thought this one was pretty straightforward.

YMMV: I had difficulty with M7 +- 1 rank, but there was a whole stretch of 7-8/8-7s below that that was very easy to fix. I thought this was relatively easy compared to the last two GTBs, at any rate. Like the biggest questions are who takes the komusubi slot and who gets promoted, and those are always a minor crapshoot anyway.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,100]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

For further context, 3 sekiwake on the Aki banzuke wasn't the surprise that it seemed to be, nor is it any sort of precedent for lenient junior sanyaku promotions. I think most of the GTB players were entertaining the possibility as it was a pretty good reason not to have a demoted Asanoyama choke up sanyaku, but relatively few of us thought the NSK would actually go ahead and do it.

Yeah, I think I was the first one to mention on this forum that it would be really nice if the NSK did what they ended up doing, but I thought that likelihood to be extremely small, especially since they're strapped for money and could have saved the extra sanyaku salary.  I'm very glad that they did in the end see that it was the most appropriate thing to do, but generally demoted Ozeki get preference for a sekiwake slot (since that's the rank they must take) and 3rd are only created then whenever a 3rd would normally be created (which is right now only 11+ wins at Komusubi).

For extra Komusubi, it seems the only thing that will cause it is when they have someone KK at M1e and no open spots.  In that case, they'll also promote to Komusubi anyone else that should be ahead of them on the banzuke if there were theoretical negatively numbered maegashira positions.  But the situation we have this basho where a number of people have good enough records for Komusubi isn't all that pressing of a reason, since it's happened again and again recently.  It's certainly possible that some of what made them make an extra Sekiwake slot for Asanoyama was Ichinojo's strong performance that would normally warrant a Komusubi slot, but I think his promotion is mainly just part of the fallout of the decision to make that spot.  No one has as strong as a claim to Komusubi as Ichinojo did last time anyway.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,518]

48 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Like the biggest questions are who takes the komusubi slot and who gets promoted, and those are always a minor crapshoot anyway.

Promoted from Juryo? That seems pretty cut-and-tried.

[Reonito 1,518]

40 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

For extra Komusubi, it seems the only thing that will cause it is when they have someone KK at M1e and no open spots.

Daieisho forced one in January by going 13-2 Y from M1w so we know it's not the only thing, but it has to be a pretty remarkable performance below M1e. (We also still don't know if 8-7 at M1e would be enough.)

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Promoted from Juryo? That seems pretty cut-and-tried.

Yeah. Possibly room for disagreement with which of Tsurugisho/Kaisei goes down, and which of Shohozan/Wakamotoharu goes up, but other than that it's pretty obvious.

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Yeah, I think I was the first one to mention on this forum that it would be really nice if the NSK did what they ended up doing, but I thought that likelihood to be extremely small, especially since they're strapped for money and could have saved the extra sanyaku salary.  I'm very glad that they did in the end see that it was the most appropriate thing to do, but generally demoted Ozeki get preference for a sekiwake slot (since that's the rank they must take) and 3rd are only created then whenever a 3rd would normally be created (which is right now only 11+ wins at Komusubi).

I get what you mean about the salary being extra, but it would hardly be extraordinary either: Asanoyama's pay is still suspended so they still only paid for 2 sekiwake - not to mention they've saved his ozeki salary over the last basho too. So maybe it was an easier decision to make than most other banzukes with abnormal numbers of junior sanyaku.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,518]

12 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah. Possibly room for disagreement with which of Tsurugisho/Kaisei goes down, and which of Shohozan/Wakamotoharu goes up, but other than that it's pretty obvious.

I don't think either of those is a close call, unlike the Kiribayama/Daieisho coin flip.

[Asashosakari 19,648]

Yeah, I'm very much in favour of other entrants putting Tsurugisho and Wakamotoharu into makuuchi if they believe that makes sense.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think either of those is a close call, unlike the Kiribayama/Daieisho coin flip.

Wakamotoharu going up instead of Shohozan is relatively daft, I agree, but by the numbers (well at least my numbers) Tsurugisho v Kaisei is narrower than Kiribayama v Daieisho.

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Yeah, I'm very much in favour of other entrants putting Tsurugisho and Wakamotoharu into makuuchi if they believe that makes sense.

:hurriedly checks GTB entry: Yep, I am too!

Edited October 5, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,518]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

by the numbers (well at least my numbers) Tsurugisho v Kaisei is narrower than Kiribayama v Daieisho

Now I need to know what your numbers are, as they sound different from what forum members usually mean when they (we) say "by the numbers" 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

Now I need to know what your numbers are, as they sound different from what forum members usually mean when they (we) say "by the numbers" 

Ok, never mind, will you believe that I read my own scoresheet wrongly? I read off the wrong column. By my system Kiribayama and Daieisho are tied, but Tsurugisho is 1.5 ranks below Kaisei.

[Gurowake 4,100]

22 hours ago, Reonito said:

Daieisho forced one in January by going 13-2 Y from M1w so we know it's not the only thing, but it has to be a pretty remarkable performance below M1e. (We also still don't know if 8-7 at M1e would be enough.)

I forgot about Daieisho mainly because that was so bleeding obvious that he needed to be promoted into sanyaku and that everyone expected him to be Sekiwake instead that it wasn't much of a precedence setting, other than "it's possible with a good enough record" which is basically always the case for anything.  We don't have as strong of evidence of what exactly is good enough for a maegashira compared to a Komusubi forcing their way to Sekiwake, so I admit I have no idea what they'd do in the little-ventured middle ground between Daieisho and the normal non-promotions we see now during this lack of Ozeki causing a shortage of sanyaku spots compared to candidates.

I think it's pretty clear that an 8-7 M1e would force their hand, though you're right that we don't "know" this.  The fact is that they have always minimally promoted people with an 8-7 even if there was good reason to slot someone ahead of them and leave the 8-7 at the same rank, while pretty much every basho there's someone that maintains their rank with a 7-8.  That this would extend to the top of the maegashira ranks for pushing into sanyaku seems fairly clear. 

[Reonito 1,518]

The closest I can come to a counter-argument is the couple of recent-ish instances in which an 8-7 J1e wasn't promoted to Makuuchi.

[Reonito 1,518]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

The fact is that they have always minimally promoted people with an 8-7 even if there was good reason to slot someone ahead of them and leave the 8-7 at the same rank,

Not quite always, though in that case the san'yaku shrank a lot.

[maorencze 144]

On 05/10/2021 at 18:07, Seiyashi said:

YMMV: I had difficulty with M7 +- 1 rank, but there was a whole stretch of 7-8/8-7s below that that was very easy to fix. I thought this was relatively easy compared to the last two GTBs, at any rate. Like the biggest questions are who takes the komusubi slot and who gets promoted, and those are always a minor crapshoot anyway.

There was a whole stretch that was difficult to place exactly, due to "where to put Asanoyama, Takayasu, Hoshoryu, Hokutofuji, Kotonowaka, Ishiura" question, that had direct influence on placement of Chiyoshoma and Terutsuyoshi, and also Shimanoumi and Kotoeko (and to a degree Chiyonokuni). Overpromote or overdemote? Not that many clear candidates to any one spot IMHO. But its likely thats just me overthinking and overcomplicating things.

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

I believe since Hakuho's retirement took place after the banzuke committee meeting, we're supposed to have him on the Kyushu banzuke correct?

[fwuzzle23 66]

2 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

I believe since Hakuho's retirement took place after the banzuke committee meeting, we're supposed to have him on the Kyushu banzuke correct?

I believe so, at the very least it's too late to have made an extra promotion from juryo to take his spot, so it's just a matter of whether you keep Hakuho or blank out his spot, and the latter seems like a punitive option to me so he'll probably still be there.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

If I remember correctly the banzuke committee did say that he would still be on the Kyushu banzuke. The relevant post is probably buried somewhere in the Hakuho Retires thread.

[RaeucherLax 290]

On 10/10/2021 at 10:03, Seiyashi said:

If I remember correctly the banzuke committee did say that he would still be on the Kyushu banzuke. The relevant post is probably buried somewhere in the Hakuho Retires thread.

Oh crap, why didn't I read this before I submitted my guess  I'll have to blame my newborn son for not giving me enough spare time to follow the forum 

[Gurowake 4,100]

 

2 hours ago, RaeucherLax said:

Oh crap, why didn't I read this before I submitted my guess  I'll have to blame my newborn son for not giving me enough spare time to follow the forum 

I'm pretty sure you can enter a new one and it will overwrite the old one.  You still have some time to do that.