Gurowake

Future prospects to keep an eye on

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Aki 2022:

I'm going to try to provide a little more context whenever there's a new entrant.

J7 Tier: Atamifuji+3 - Since Nagoya 2021

J14 Tier: Hokuseiho - Since Hatsu 2021

Ms15 Tier: Yoshii+2 - Since Kyushu 2019

Ms30 Tier:

Otsuji+2 - Since Haru 2020

Chiyotora+1 - This guy has been very close on multiple occasions to get on this list, and finally has now, with some room to spare after a 6-1 following a string of 4-3s.  Not much in the way of hype coming in; he seems to have turned things up a notch in the last year.

Kotohaguro - Lots of going on and off since Aki 2018 - most recently since Hatsu 2022

Kiryuko - First appearance, on a KK streak since debut out of high school, so I'm expecting to see him here frequently going forward.  The Covid-regulation-breaking ex-Tokitsukaze-oyakata's son.  Won Hakuho Cup in 2nd grade and 4th grade.

Mukainakano - Since Nagoya 2022

Ms60 Tier:

Setonoumi+1 - Since Nagoya 2022

Daihisho - Since Hatsu 2021 other than Nagoya 2021

Sd50 Tier: Ieshima - Since Nagoya 2022 with additional appearance Aki 2021.

Sd75 Tier:

Tanji+2 - First appearance after two straight 6-1s to start his career out of middle school.  Aknomaki's introduction of him said "Local TV sports news praise Tanji as a middle school student with extraordinary strength. His school has no sumo club and he trains with high school students".   Brother of the current rikishi using the shikona Taiga, who switched off of Tanji when this rikishi entered, and has been on this list before under both shikona.  This is going to complicate things for me as that means that there are two different recruits who made this list at some point when they used the shikona Tanji.

Takashoki+1 - Since Hatsu 2022

Shunrai - Since Aki 2021 except for Natsu 2022

Jd25 Tier:

Rinko and Hayashiryu - First appearances.  Twins with identical finishing records each basho so far (4-3, 6-1).  Katooshu said "They both impressed me in the national middle school championship [...] One was a bit better than the other but I can't remember who was who." 

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Also of note for Aki 2022 - Kotoshoho ages out of the top bracket.  The fact that he was unable to maintain his status near the top of the banzuke despite getting there very early suggests he's unlikely to become Ozeki.  That might have been entirely due to injury, but that injury seems to have left him a bit weaker than before.  He's had plenty of time to get back to the top of the division and simply isn't good enough now.  He might develop over time and get back into the joi, but he seems to not have enough talent to overcome his new physical limitations to push up to the second highest rank eventually.  Maybe if he can get into the joi for Kyushu and stay there for a year, I'll reverse my guess, because he might have still be nursing that injury the last year.

Edited by Gurowake
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Kyushu 2022:

M17 Tier: Atamifuji+3 - Since Nagoya 2021

J7 Tier: Hokuseiho+1 - Since Hatsu 2021

Ms15 Tier: Yoshii+2 - Since Kyushu 2019

Ms30 Tier:

Setonoumi+3 - Since Nagoya 2022 - This guy is doing insanely well for someone with no fanfare out of middle school.  He also spent 3 basho on the sidelines last year, and he's clearly completely recovered from whatever kept him out.  A 6-1 in his Makushita debut sees him now in the top half of the division.  On a 4 basho streak of at least 5 wins as well.

Otsuji+1 - Since Haru 2020

Chiyotora - Since Aki 2022

Ms45 Tier: Kototebakari - New entry.  Kotoshoho's brother.  Won Kanazawa national high school tournament about a year ago.

Ms60 Tier: Daihisho - Since Hatsu 2021 other than Nagoya 2021

Sd50 Tier:

Tanji+3 - Since Aki 2022 - Someone at +3 this low on the list indicates a very impressive start from a middle schooler.  Built on his first two 6-1s with a 5-2 in his third basho.  Almost definitely a future sekitori unless misfortune befalls him.

Shunrai - Since Aki 2021 except for Natsu 2022 - He was inadvertently left off the list last basho, but he was on my list that I make before I write the post.  Not sure what went on there, but I edited the previous basho's list to put him there.

Sd75 Tier: Mogamizakura - Kyushu 2021, Natsu 2022, and Nagoya 2022

Sd90 Tier:

Rinko+1 - Since Aki 2022

Hayashiryu+1 - Since Aki 2022

The last two have now had identical records in 3 straight basho.

Kiryuko (newcomer last time who I expected to see again) was born on October 31, 2002.  If he was born the next day, he'd be in the Ms30 Tier.

 

Edited by Gurowake
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I've updated the first post to include a link to a spreadsheet I worked on today that intended to be a good visual reference for all the rikishi on the current banzuke who ever qualified for this list.  Because going to the first post is more work, here's the link as well: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C-z9NrU2GQRrqCzMFfla9n6W1iZLaWyUIbN759-RMw8/edit?usp=sharing

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Hatsu 2023:

J7 tier:

Hokuseiho - Since Hatsu 2021

Atamifuji+2 - Since Nagoya 2021

Ms15 Tier:

Otsuji+2 - Since Haru 2020

Mukainakano - Nagoya and Aki 2022 only

Chiyotora+1 - Since Kyushu 2022

Setonoumi+3 - Since Nagoya 2022

Yoshii+2 - Since Kyushu 2019

Ms30 Tier: Kototebakari+1 - Since Kyushu 2022

Ms45 Tier: Kazuto - New Entry.  Katooshu says he "made the best 4 at the biggest high school competition, and in middle school won a national team title".

Sd25 Tier: Tanji+3 - Since Aki 2022

Sd50 Tier:

Shunrai - Since Aki 2021 except for Natsu 2022

Rinko+3 - Since Aki 2022

Ieshima - Aki 2021, Nagoya and Aki 2022 only

Jd25 Tier: Hayashiryu - Since Aki 2022

 

Additional notes:

This is the last basho that Oho could have made the list, as he turns 23 in February.

The Google Spreadsheet is also updated, including shikona changes (3 of the 7 changing shikona were on the list at some point).

Edited by Gurowake
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Haru 2023:

Bottom of Makuuchi Tier: Hokuseiho+1 - since Hatsu 2021

J14 Tier:

Ochiai+2 - New Entry.  High school Yokozuna 2nd and 3rd year.  Top 8 at All-Japan 3rd year of High School.  Pulled an Ichinojo at an even younger age to get Ms15TD at the corporate tournament. Only MsTD to be promoted to Juryo after one tournament.  I guess he's kinda good.  I retroactively added him to the Google Spreadsheet with a 2 for last tournament for being Ms15 at his age then.

Atamifuji+1 - Since Nagoya 2021

Ms15 Tier:

Mukainakano - since Nagoya 2022 except Kyushu 2022

Kiryuko - previously Aki 2022

Ms30 Tier:

Setonoumi+2 - Since Nagoya 2022

Otsuji+1 - Since Haru 2020

Yoshii - Since Kyushu 2019

Kototebakari - Since Kyushu 2022

Ms45 Tier: Kazuto - Since Hatsu 2023

Sd25 Tier: Shunrai+1 - Since Aki 2021 except Natsu 2022

Sd50 Tier:

Rinko+2 - Since Aki 2022

Tanji+2 - Since Aki 2022

Chiyoshishi - Previously May 2022.  Notes since he first appeared before the notes for newcomers:  5th in heavy weight division at Hokushinetsu 北信越 (5 prefectures) championships in 2019.  That's the only thing of note for individual results.  Once trained with Asanoyama.

Toramusashi - New Entry.  Nothing about him in the Haru 2020 new recruits thread - maybe one of the mystery recruits.  Searching for his kanji name on Google the only thing that seems relevant is this page https://pando.life/@toraho/history where it says he did karate and baseball, but focused more on baseball.  It then says he entered a sumo stable, so I'm pretty sure it's the right guy.  He's one of two guys on my list born March 1, which allows them to enter a year earlier than those born March 2, but counts as born in March for my calculations, so they're the only ones with 4 basho in the pre-Jd25 tier.

 

This was the last basho HIradoumi could qualify for the list.  He was a bit short from getting high enough in rank to do so.

Google spreadsheet updated.  No shikona changes or retirements.

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Am curious if this is the basho Hokuseiho is finally exposed. Feels like everyone has gone gloom on him but he keeps getting kachi-koshi's. Also Hakuho's first Makuuchi Rikishi (outside of a couple more months of Ishiura up there.)

 

Ochiai and Atamifuji both feel more complete in terms of there sumo though. Atami probs bounces back, as the recent Make-Koshi's and the Hikarifuji bullying scandal are def stopping his confidence. 

 

After that it's a bit of a crapshoot on who really makes it super big. Mukainakano probs will be Makuuchi stalwart due to his already present skills, and Kototebakari and Kazuto have the potential. 

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48 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Am curious if this is the basho Hokuseiho is finally exposed. Feels like everyone has gone gloom on him but he keeps getting kachi-koshi's.

Not sure his competition at M15 is going to be all that much harder than it was in Juryo.

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2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Not sure his competition at M15 is going to be all that much harder than it was in Juryo.

No. It's not like he's at M17 and challenging for the yusho...

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3 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

Am curious if this is the basho Hokuseiho is finally exposed.

He’s been exposed his entire time in juryo… and (unfortunately) that hasn’t stopped him from winning.

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59 minutes ago, Kyokufuji said:

He’s been exposed his entire time in juryo… and (unfortunately) that hasn’t stopped him from winning.

At the same time, he's still just 21 and under the tutelage of the GOAT. Still far from a finished product, and will only get stronger and better with age and experience. 

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An offhand comment by @themistyseas got me wondering: who were the prospects who made it to the top of the list but not ōzeki?

Edited by Seiyashi
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1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

An offhand comment by @themistyseas got me wondering: who were the prospects who made it to the top of the list but not ōzeki?

Off the top of my head while I'm at work, of those retired "normally", Chiyootori, Tochiozan, and Asasekiryu; of those who didn't, Wakanoho and Osunaarashi; of those not yet retired, Ichinojo.

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10 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

An offhand comment by @themistyseas got me wondering: who were the prospects who made it to the top of the list but not ōzeki?

Now that I can look directly, there's Hoshoryu which you probably already knew about, plus Kotoshoho and Onosho among those yet to retire.  I didn't find anyone else among the already-retired crowd, though I stopped going backwards in compiling the lists at Hatsu 2002.

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8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Now that I can look directly, there's Hoshoryu which you probably already knew about, plus Kotoshoho and Onosho among those yet to retire.  I didn't find anyone else among the already-retired crowd, though I stopped going backwards in compiling the lists at Hatsu 2002.

Onosho ain't making it, injuries have been getting worse. I guess Kotoshoho is a big maybe, and Hoshoryu probably makes it soonish. 

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Natsu 2023:

Bottom of Makuuchi Tier: Hokuseiho+1 - since Hatsu 2021

J14 Tier:

Ochiai+2 - since Haru 2023

Atamifuji - Since Nagoya 2021

Ms15 Tier: Yoshii+1 - Since Kyushu 2019

Ms30 Tier:

Setonoumi+2 - Since Nagoya 2022

Otsuji - Since Haru 2020

Wakanosho - New Entry.  Runner-up at the national high school tournament in January 2021.  Born same day as Ochiai.

Kototebakari - Since Kyushu 2022

Ms45 Tier: Kazuto - Since Hatsu 2023

Sd25 Tier:

Tanji+3 - Since Aki 2022

Miyata - Natsu and Nagoya 2021 and 2022 (yes, specifically those two basho in both years, and he's in for the first of them for 2023).  I should try to find something out about this guy since his last appearance was before I tried to find such stuff, but he had nothing interesting about him in the new recruit thread, and there's apparently a baseball player with the same name that I could tell you way more information about, like that he's an infielder that throws right and bats left.

Sd75 Tier: Rinko+1 - Since Aki 2022

Spreadsheet updated - No shikona changes, Ichinojo and Kagamio removed.

 

Edited by Gurowake
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Nagoya 2023

M10 Tier: Hokuseiho+1 - Since Hatsu 2021

bottom of Makuuchi Tier: Hakuoho (previously Ochiai)+4 - since Haru 2023

Top half of Juryo Tier: Atamifuji+1 - since Nagoya 2021

Ms15 Tier: Otsuji+1 - Since Haru 2020

Ms30 Tier:

Kazuto - since Hatsu 2023

Kototebakari - Since Kyushu 2022

Ms45 Tier: Setonoumi - Since Nagoya 2022

Ms60 Tier: Tanji+3 - Since Aki 2022

Sd50 Tier: Rinko+2 - Since Aki 2022

No new entries or even any returning entries not on last basho's list.  One major absence is Yoshii who fell one slot too low after his poor May tournament.

Spreadsheet updated.  Removed Tochinoshin.  Changed shikona for Ochiai as well as Tanakayama (Kurohimeyama).

Edited by Gurowake
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Aki 2023

M10 Tier: Hakuoho+4 - since Haru 2023

bottom of Makuuchi Tier:

Atamifuji+2 - Since Nagoya 2021

Hokuseiho - Since Hatsu 2021

Bottom half of Juryo tier: Tenshoho - previously Mukainakano - previously Nagoya 2022 to Haru 2023 except Kyushu 2022

Ms15 Tier: Kototebakari - Since Kyushu 2022

Ms30 Tier:

Kazuto - Since Hatsu 2023

Otsuji - Since Haru 2020

Ms60 Tier:

Shunrai+1 - previously Aki 2021 to Haru 2023 except Natsu 2022

Wakaikari - New entry -  Son of Kabutoyama-oyakata (M11 Oikari) - runner-up in 100kg category at national select tournament (unclear if 2022 or 2021 from the source).   Source.

Sd25 Tier: Tanji+2 - Since Aki 2022

Sd50 Tier: Rinko+1 - Since Aki 2022

Bottom of Sd Tier: Takaarashi - New Entry - Nothing about him in the new recruits thread for Haru 2022.  All I can find on him on Google that is sumo-related but not Ozumo-related is that he was in top 4 at 第24回かしわ相撲交流大会 (which Google translate says is "The 24th Kashiwa Sumo Exchange Tournament") when he was in 4th grade.  Source.

Jd25 Tier: Kiyonoyama+1 - New Entry - Started with sumo at age 3, in 4th grade won a prefecture tournament, in last two years of middle school was in the individuals at the national middle school athletic meeting (zenchu).  Father (Ms2 Kiyonoumi) apparently groomed him and his two brothers (also in Ozumo now and also previously on the list - Kiyota and Kiyonohana, the latter being a new addition on the first post of this thread, the former being on it many years prior) to be rikishi.  Source.

Spreadsheet updated, including changing shikona for Tenshoho and removing Chiyonokuni.

Edited by Gurowake
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Kyushu 2023

M10 Tier:

Atamifuji+2 - Since Nagoya 2021

Hokuseiho+1 - Since Hatsu 2021

Top half of Juryo Tier - Hakuoho - Since Haru 2023

Ms15 Tier:

Otsuji - since Haru 2020

Kototebakari - since Kyushu 2022

Ms30 Tier:

Tanji+5 - Since Aki 2022

Kazuto - Since Hatsu 2023

Ms45 Tier:

Wakaikari+1 - Since Aki 2023

Satorufuji - New Entry - National top with team in middle school 2018 and high school 2022.  Source

Sd25 Tier - Chiyoshishi - Previously Haru 2023 and Natsu 2022

Sd75 Tier - Rinko - Since Aki 2022

Jd25 Tier - Keiga - (not this one) - New entry - Won multiple prefectural championships (Tochigi). Source

 

Updated spreadsheet, including removal of Anzai and Setonoumi, who are far too young to be retiring given their presence on the list in the recent past. :(

 

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2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Updated spreadsheet, including removal of Anzai and Setonoumi, who are far too young to be retiring given their presence on the list in the recent past. :(

 

Couldn't be more true, I'll honestly miss them both...

...and you'll be removing Chiyoshishi from the spreadsheet before Hatsu, too.

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Hatsu 2024:

M3 Tier: Atamifuji+3 - since Nagoya 2021

M10 Tier: Hokuseiho - since Hatsu 2021

Ms15 Tier - this one is packed - most I've ever had in one tier:

Wakaikari+3 - since Aki 2023

Satorufuji+1 - since Kyushu 2023

Kotokenryu +1 - new entry - Mongolian.  I couldn't find any information on his amateur accomplishments, though the Sumo Wrestling wiki says he was on the Saitama Sakae HS team but dropped out to join Ozumo.

Otsuji - since Haru 2020

Hakuoho - since Haru 2023

Yoshii - previously Kyushu 2019 through Natsu 2023.  

Kototebakari - since Kyushu 2022

Ms60 Tier: Anosho - new entry - mikawa lists him 17th strongest in middle school in 2019 (his third year there).  Akinomaki has a bunch of random information at this post.  Most relevant would be "In Sanbongi high as 3rd year he won the Tohoku tournament and was in the best 8 at the national select Usa tournament, best 32 at the kokutai juniors."

Sd25 Tier; Tanji+1 - Since Aki 2022

Sd50 Tier: Rinko+1 - Since Aki 2022

Jd25 Tier: Kiyonoyama - previously Aki 2023

Updated spreadsheet, including removing Chiyoshishi.  No shikona changes.

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1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Ms15 Tier - this one is packed - most I've ever had in one tier:

This tier this basho also includes recent Sd starters entrants Kayo and Hatsuyama along with last basho's Ms starter, Onokatsu.

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18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

This tier this basho also includes recent Sd starters entrants Kayo and Hatsuyama along with last basho's Ms starter, Onokatsu.

The Ms yusho and promotion races are going to be fun, especially if Hakuoho is back

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