Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Shodai somehow getting a decent win over Hokutofuji, who's a tricky customer. Yet his body language is still depressed. I wouldn't put it past him to somehow pull an 8-7 out of the bag and really ginger up the end of this basho, but he has got to give it his all. 

[Godango 1,015]

...holy crap...

EDIT: Terunofuji's loss can only be good for Mitakeumi's ozeki aspirations, as he's still in the yusho race going into day 13. 

But wow! A three way tie for the final three days, this is going to be a very fun weekend!

Edited January 20, 2022 by Godango

[Kurowashi 43]

Imo, after the loss today Mitakeumi needs to get a 12-3 JY at least to get promoted. So he can really only afford loosing a bout to Terunofuji…

[Kurowashi 43]

Meisei ?! Ok now the yusho race became very interesting !

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Just now, Kurowashi said:

Imo, after the loss today Mitakeumi needs to get a 12-3 JY at least to get promoted. So he can really only afford loosing a bout to Terunofuji…

Terunofuji just made it really easy to make that a 13-2 J. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Meisei! You beauty!

Since Terunofuji made Yokozuna, Meisei has beaten him two out of three times. Impressive.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Godango 1,015]

Excitement aside, very concerning to see the Yokozuna reach for his knee like that. I hope it's nothing major.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Now, not only is Abi back as a co-leader, Kotonowaka is a yusho threat since Abi has yet to fight both Teru and Mitakeumi, and it's entirely possible that he beats one and loses to the other to bring them all to 11-3, while Kotonowaka builds 2 more wins. The implications of that are a bit too varied before tomorrow's bouts pan out, and we might see late torikumi, but I think Shodai may be an unexpected beneficiary with some of his sanyaku bouts switched out to accomodate needing to deal with the two hiramaku upstarts. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kurowashi 43]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

Now, not only is Abi back as a co-leader, Kotonowaka is a yusho threat since Abi has yet to fight both Teru and Mitakeumi, and it's entirely possible that he beats one and loses to the other to bring them all to 11-3, while Kotonowaka builds 2 more wins. The implications of that are a bit too varied before tomorrow's bouts pan out, and we might see late torikumi, but I think Shodai may be an unexpected beneficiary with some of his sanyaku bouts switched out to accomodate needing to deal with the two hiramaku upstarts. 

That‘s a very interesting possibility ! But after today and given it‘s Hatsu, anything is possible 

[Hankegami 537]

THAT's interesting. Now we have a three-men race to the yusho, and tomorrow's Mitakeumi-Abi gets a whole new flavour.

Honestly, I cannot help but see Mitakeumi as the least favourite. Both Terunofuji and Abi are more warlike to me. And @Seiyashi is totally right in reminding us there's Kotonowaka just around the corner.

Back to the "Ozeki problem", Shodai might still be able to get his KK. Not easy at all, but the NSK might help him a bit by avoiding to pair him with Terunofuji for the moment. If Shodai manages to get a 7-7 on day 14, I'd avoid to fed him to Teru "just to be sure". Otherwise, let the crowd have their fun.

[Joaoiyama 313]

Tatsunami bois all the way! 

 

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

It's very likely that Shodai's road to KK became easier now, skipping his match against Terunofuji.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Another dynamic at play here: Mitakeumi gets 12 wins for 32/45, a weak case at the best of times but assumed to be enough if he'd beaten Terunofuji and won the yusho, but this time he loses out on the yusho to Abi or Kotonowaka. The optics of coming second to a maegashira end his promotion hopes. 

(I haven't actually thought through if this is possible beyond recognizing he'd have to lose to Abi tomorrow for the latter to get 13 and Mita only 12 max.)

Edited January 20, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Kurowashi 43]

Mitakeumi leads their head to head 7-2 (including a fusen win), but the last time they met was nagoya 2020, so it will be interesting to see if the „new“ abi can handle him..

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&shikona1=mitakeumi&shikona2=abi

[Seiyashi 4,108]

20 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Another dynamic at play here: Mitakeumi gets 12 wins for 32/45, a weak case at the best of times but assumed to be enough if he'd beaten Terunofuji and won the yusho, but this time he loses out on the yusho to Abi or Kotonowaka. The optics of coming second to a maegashira end his promotion hopes. 

(I haven't actually thought through if this is possible beyond recognizing he'd have to lose to Abi tomorrow for the latter to get 13 and Mita only 12 max.)

Abi will almost certainly have to fight Terunofuji in that event. It might just rescue his ozeki bid if Abi beats Terunofuji too, since the optics don't look that bad any more, although the much more probable scenario is to leave them all on 11-3 at the end of day 14. But if Mitakeumi beats Abi then Abi won't meet Teru, most probably. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 537]

30 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Another dynamic at play here: Mitakeumi gets 12 wins for 32/45, a weak case at the best of times but assumed to be enough if he'd beaten Terunofuji and won the yusho, but this time he loses out on the yusho to Abi or Kotonowaka. The optics of coming second to a maegashira end his promotion hopes. 

(I haven't actually thought through if this is possible beyond recognizing he'd have to lose to Abi tomorrow for the latter to get 13 and Mita only 12 max.)

10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Abi will almost certainly have to fight Terunofuji in that event. It might just rescue his ozeki bid if Abi beats Terunofuji too, since the optics don't look that bad any more, although the much more probable scenario is to leave them all on 11-3 at the end of day 14. But if Mitakeumi beats Abi then Abi won't meet Teru, most probably. 

I would consider Shodai's situation too. The NSK might want to help him keeping his rank given the situation. In my opinion, if he manages to defeat Onosho tomorrow and keep his KK hopes alive, the NSK might avoid to feed him to Terunofuji. Mitakeumi must face the Yokozuna anyway as East Sekiwake, and the next highest rikishi available for Terunofuji are Hoshoryu and Abi himself. Hoshoryu is M6 East so he should get priority, but Abi has a better score this basho.

Therefore, in my opinion Abi won't face Terunofuji only in case Shodai loses on day 13 and is kadoban anyway. The pairings would likely be Shodai on day 14 and Mitakeumi on day 15 for the showdown. But in case Shodai wins, the NSK might avoid him an almost unaivodable loss to Terunofuji and pick a M6 for day 14 (Mitakeumi on day 15 as the highest ranked). Winning or losing, Abi will still have more wins than Hoshoryu this basho and be a more likeable pairing for the Yokozuna.

[Akinomaki 40,791]

13 hours ago, Reonito said:

lose one of his remaining bouts—he's at 7 losses

Thanks, I had too many negations and wanted to simplify it, but failed, it was first "Shodai not necessarily won't win all remaining bouts", now:

14 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

if we take for granted that Shodai will lose another bout - he is not yet kadoban.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

The problem with giving Abi to Terunofuji whether or not he beats Mitakeumi is this: as Eikokurai will be wont to say, a maegashira upstart challenging for the yusho will never be allowed to secure it outright by having the opportunity to beat the yokozuna who is also challenging for the yusho. It makes day 14 Abi v Terunofuji too risky a bout in the event Abi actually beats Terunofuji especially if Abi has also beaten Mitakeumi, because no one can then directly catch him other than possibly a 11-2 Kotonowaka, and no one else makes sense as a gatekeep for Abi. They have to give him someone, but it can't be a freebie or it just hands him the yusho on a silver platter, as the winner of Terunofuji v Mitakeumi can still hope to force a playoff if Abi loses on senshuraku.  , and leaves day 15 as either possibly a decider between two maegashira or complete dead air, both of which are real bummers to end a basho on. And if Abi has lost to Mitakeumi, he is one behind Terunofuji and shouldn't be given the power to force a playoff as that is not something he would have had in the ordinary course of things by virtue of his rank.

(That said I don't know if the Eikokurai rule is still a thing as some queries suggest that the torikumi committee isn't shy from straying from it.)

If such a match must take place, it would only take place on day 15 if it is still necessary by then. Day 14 Abi v Kotonowaka is much more likely if Abi beats Mitakeumi, to tie up loose ends, and moot if Abi loses to Mitakeumi. This is of course assuming Terunofuji remains perfect throughout. He is likely to ream Takanosho tomorrow, but his day 14 matchup depends on Abi v Mitakeumi as well. If Mitakeumi beats Abi then most likely T v M is the musubi on senshuraku, whereas if Mitakeumi loses to Abi T v M is on for day 14 in the ordinary sequence of things. 

So M v A is the Schrodinger bout tomorrow. Too many possibilities are up in the air before then. Once that bout is decided, the schedules for day 14 will almost certainly crystallise. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki 40,791]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

EDIT: Mitakeumi just lost to Onosho. The NSK must really look for a solution just in case.

They don't do things just in case. Only if the case really happens, there is a need for action, so they'll wait and see and change nothing, as always.

9 hours ago, Kamitsuumi said:

14 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

There have to be 2 ozeki on the banzuke, the yokozuna technically is one of them

Has this rule been written down somewhere or actually been tested in modern times? Sure there have been yokozuna-ozeki,

It is a banzuke-technical rule from the time when there was no yokozuna rank yet, it should be written down somewhere in the NSK rules, but not on those published on the net - they only mention some banzuke and shimpan regulations as extra documents. The NSK Ozumo dai-jiten under "yokozuna-ozeki" tells that (east & west) ozeki have to be on the banzuke.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

as Eikokurai will be wont to say

Hehe. Someone's been paying attention. 

[RabidJohn 1,855]

Well that shook things up. 

Mitakeumi shouldn't have lost to Onosho. He's got a tough 2 wins from 3 to have a chance at promotion this time.

Terunofuji shouldn't have lost to Meisei. I hope he hasn't damaged his bionic knees. (I'm only half jesting. I suspect he's had the joint replacement op.)

Abi suddenly has a decent opportunity to continue the run of hatsu yusho at the Hatsu basho.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

as Eikokurai will be wont to say

Hehe. Someone's been paying attention. 

Heh. That said, I did a little digging and found some preliminary data that might contradict the rule. If I understand you correctly, the rule basically states that no maegashira from one behind a yokozuna leading the arasoi should be allowed to challenge that yokozuna directly, right? If so, I'll open another topic in Ozumo Discussions to discuss the ambit of the rule there.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[hakutorizakura 643]

Holy smokes... you meisei I'm a dreamer...

 

5 hours ago, rhyen said:

Sorry, Raiden is engaged in combat with Shiva in Raganarok.

Is Liu Kang there as well? Please say hi. *wrong franchise*

[Rocks 1,809]

Mitakeumi, losing to Onosho like a schlub. Really? The only fitting thing is he beats Abi easily on Day 13 even though he has no business doing it. 

In any case he's still in the yusho race thanks to Terunofuji losing, which still puts him there for promotion. 

Ridiculous that Shodai will miss the Yokozuna 2 basho in a row especially considering he's the only Ozeki left. Should have been made to face Terunofuji .

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

So M v A is the Schrodinger bout tomorrow. Too many possibilities are up in the air before then. Once that bout is decided, the schedules for day 14 will almost certainly crystallise. 

Problem is: the day 14 schedule will be announced long before Schroedinger looks in the box.