Sumo ‘Ranfurly Shield’ for 2022

[Gurowake 4,100]

I just realized what the actual topic of this thread is. Maybe all my posts belong in a new thread....

[Eikokurai 3,437]

49 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I just realized what the actual topic of this thread is. Maybe all my posts belong in a new thread....

You got nothing better to do on New Year’s Eve/Day?  You were right, but not sure I’ve got the patience to track the shield ownership across all of sumo history!

[Benevolance 2,508]

Oh, hey. Seiyashi! Asojima said to tell you that you should track the shield ownership across all of sumo history. 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

4 hours ago, Benevolance said:

Oh, hey. Seiyashi! Asojima said to tell you that you should track the shield ownership across all of sumo history. 

I'm outta here... 

[LLCoolKay 24]

So if this is completed the way it started, we'd be able to say definitively (if we're calling the start of the first basho in the database the beginning) who the lineal champion of sumo is.

Edited January 4, 2022 by LLCoolKay

[Jakusotsu 6,045]

17 minutes ago, LLCoolKay said:

So if this is completed the way it started, we'd be able to say definitively (if we're calling the start of the first basho in the database the beginning) who the lineal champion of sumo is.

Well, Hakuho retired undefeated, so go figure...

[Jejima 1,414]

46 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

Well, Hakuho retired undefeated, so go figure...

Good point by Jakusotsu. Hakuho will almost certainly be the holder at the time of his retirement (without having to go through all of the records), so might as well start from after that, with Terunofuji's first basho as Yokozuna?

[Sakura 1,495]

7 hours ago, Jejima said:

Good point by Jakusotsu. Hakuho will almost certainly be the holder at the time of his retirement (without having to go through all of the records), so might as well start from after that, with Terunofuji's first basho as Yokozuna?

The nature of these things generally means that they will converge, even if you took different starting points. However, there is no guarantee that he would be the one holding it at his retirement. (Though that is the most likely scenario).

[Jejima 1,414]

Reminds me of the 'Unofficial World Champions of Football (Soccer)'.  This started with the very first International match of England vs Scotland in 1872 (draw - so no champion declared until the following year, when England defeated Scotland to become the inaugural champions), and continues to this day.  France are the current title holders, having taken it from Spain last October - and having twice defended their titles against Kazakhstan and Finland. 

France's next scheduled defence of the title is the third June, when Denmark will have a chance of becoming 'World Champions'.   

Edited January 4, 2022 by Jejima

[LLCoolKay 24]

9 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Well, Hakuho retired undefeated, so go figure...

Might not matter if he never faced whoever technically held the lineal title at the time. Thanks to the matchmaking, even going undefeated in his last basho could mean he didn't retire as the overall lineal champion. The lineal champion isn't necessarily the best wrestler/fighter/etc. It's just the man who beat the man who beat the man. Hakuho is still the GOAT though, so it doesn't matter much in his case. We all know he's The Man at the end of the day.

 

8 hours ago, Jejima said:

Good point by Jakusotsu. Hakuho will almost certainly be the holder at the time of his retirement (without having to go through all of the records), so might as well start from after that, with Terunofuji's first basho as Yokozuna?

It isn't certain though. For all we know, the lineal title holder could be way down the banzuke and never faced Hakuho in his final basho. It's unlikely, but possible. We wouldn't know for sure unless someone tracks it all the way through.

Edited January 4, 2022 by LLCoolKay
Clarity

[Jejima 1,414]

12 minutes ago, LLCoolKay said:

It isn't certain though. For all we know, the lineal title holder could be way down the banzuke and never faced Hakuho in his final basho. It's unlikely, but possible. We wouldn't know for sure unless someone tracks it all the way through.

It is highly unlikely.

Mathemagical chances, I suppose....  

Edit:  What's the position of fusensho losses? *If* they don't count, then I suppose Asanoyama has some chance of being the current 'champ', in which case the 'title' is headed far South..... 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Jejima

[Sakura 1,495]

2 hours ago, Jejima said:

It is highly unlikely.

Mathemagical chances, I suppose....  

Edit:  What's the position of fusensho losses? *If* they don't count, then I suppose Asanoyama has some chance of being the current 'champ', in which case the 'title' is headed far South..... 

I agree it's highly unlikely, but not impossible that it's not Hakuho. Hence, why I'm helping out @Gurowake continuing with the line (currently in the 1930's - only c. 90 years to go). Fusen losses are still losses, so the shield would still pass to the `winner'.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

You could maybe just go back two years, start everyone in makuuchi with a shield, and see if they all map onto hakuho or not.

if they all map onto hakuho it saves some work.

[Sakura 1,495]

4 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

You could maybe just go back two years, start everyone in makuuchi with a shield, and see if they all map onto hakuho or not.

if they all map onto hakuho it saves some work.

I could, but I don't want to save some work. I'd rather go back over 100 years of bouts.

[Yamanashi 3,903]

3 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

You could maybe just go back two years, start everyone in makuuchi with a shield, and see if they all map onto hakuho or not.

if they all map onto hakuho it saves some work.

That seems like the right idea, but Hakuho only fought in 111 of the 240 bouts in 2019-2021, so there would be a lot of broken threads, no?

[Benevolance 2,508]

The only way I fathom it being broken is if the holder of the shield in the previous tournament did not participate in the following tournament, either because of injury or retirement. Otherwise, if the holder withdraws, his opponent gets the fusen win and the shield moves on. 

[Reonito 1,518]

Based on a very cursory look through just the 2021 tournaments, I think the shield either ended with Hakuho, in which case I guess we'd start again with the first Jonokuchi bout of Aki (won by Kotoegashira), or it is currently held by Terunofuji, who took it from Kiribayama. Let's see if this holds up after the much more thorough analysis others are doing is completed.

[Reonito 1,518]

And if we're starting over, I think it's currently with Sd61w Yurikisho.

[Sakura 1,495]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

And if we're starting over, I think it's currently with Sd61w Yurikisho.

I think, previous discussion suggested that if someone retired holding the shield it'd revert to the highest ranked person on the banzuke.

[Gurowake 4,100]

11 hours ago, Reonito said:

And if we're starting over, I think it's currently with Sd61w Yurikisho.

It doesn't make sense to start it over at the bottom.  If it's undetermined who has it due to retirements, it should default to whoever is on top of the banzuke.  That's how I started it, and how it restarted once already in its early history.  If Hakuho held it after his last yusho, then it didn't move in the next basho as he was out, and then Terunofuji inherited it for the next basho and held on to it.

[Yamanashi 3,903]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

It doesn't make sense to start it over at the bottom.  If it's undetermined who has it due to retirements, it should default to whoever is on top of the banzuke.  That's how I started it, and how it restarted once already in its early history.  If Hakuho held it after his last yusho, then it didn't move in the next basho as he was out, and then Terunofuji inherited it for the next basho and held on to it.

I propose to the Sumo Ranfurly Shield Advisory Council that @Gurowake's proposal be accepted without amendment.

[Yarimotsu 588]

Great thread, really. I was thinking of doing this myself earlier today, somewhat inspired by the unofficial football world championship site which I have read through in its entirety.

 

[Sue 520]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

It doesn't make sense to start it over at the bottom.  If it's undetermined who has it due to retirements, it should default to whoever is on top of the banzuke.  

The top of the banzuke? Or the most recent Makuuchi yusho winner?

[Gurowake 4,100]

1 hour ago, Sue said:

The top of the banzuke? Or the most recent Makuuchi yusho winner?

You're free to start your own tracking with a different retirement transfer criteria.  I think my criteria is better, but there's no way to defend it against people who think another way is better since it's purely hypothetical.

[Jomangor 29]

On 06/01/2022 at 17:46, Yamanashi said:

I propose to the Sumo Ranfurly Shield Advisory Council that @Gurowake's proposal be accepted without amendment.

It seems as though we're keeping track of how many times a wrestler has defended the shield, but not how often he has won it from another wrestler.

The wikipedia page on the Ranfurly Shield has an 'overall records' table that lists Wins, Successful Defenses, and Average Defenses (per possession). I can't keep up with the pace of the work being done in the other thread, but I thought it worth mentioning before we get too far along to make the tracking too onerous.