Mitakeumi Ozeki Promotion

[Godango 1,015]

There's been a lot of discussion around Mitakeumi's ozeki prospects and I feel the topic has probably reached the need for it's own thread.

Here's where I'm at:

  On 19/01/2022 at 11:45, Godango said:

I'm going to be that guy to bring things back to the Mitakeumi discussion.

So here's where we're at:

• Takakeisho will be kadoban for Haru
• Shodai will almost certainly be kadoban for Haru
• We have one Yokozuna
• No-one else can be reasonably entertained as even beginning an ozeki run.

If the powers-that-be were to decide that Mitakeumi needs to prove himself in another tournament, we have a genuine chance of both ozeki being demoted after losing records in Haru, and Mitakeumi also not putting up a respectable score.

This would be mean NO ozeki, and with only one yokozuna, that's impossible, right? What could be done (genuine question, can anything be done in that event?).

The only way to avoid that is to promote Mitakeumi here. That means worst case you have two more tournaments of breathing room for a 10+ ozekiwake performance (if needed), or for someone else to start a half-decent run to justify promotion. Banzuke crisis short-term avoided.

If Mitakeumi gets 8+ next tournament, wonderful. Otherwise, you NEED him to get double digits again to save your bacon.

So let's look where we could end up with Mitakeumi and where it lines up with historical precedent (modern era only):

• 30 wins (which he's currently on)
  • This has been a promotable record 5 times, most recently Kaiketsu in 1974/75.
  • 2/5 included a yusho in the run (1 of which also had a JY)
  • 1/5 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • Two of them started on 7-8 records.
  • Summary -- there is precedent for this. And if they're desperate, anything is possible.
• 31 wins
  • This has been a promotable record 4 times, most recently Onokuni in 1985.
  • 1/4 included a yusho in the run
  • 3/4 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • Summary -- there's a current oyakata/former yokozuna who was promoted to ozeki with this record. Entirely justfiable, especially considering Mitakeumi's consistency in sanyaku and the dire ozeki situation. 11-4 Y or J and I think it'll happen.
• 32 wins
  • This has been a promotable record 9 times, most recently Shodai in 2020.
  • 5/9 included a yusho in the run
  • 5/9 included a jun-yusho in the run.
  • This was how Goeido was promoted -- granted, with two J (12-3 J, 8-7, 12-3 J)
  • Summary -- I'm convinced a 12-3 Mitakeumi gets promoted.

I'm not even going to get into this anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if they promote him as is, but 2 more wins and I think it's guaranteed given current circumstances and Mitakeumi's prior yushos and sanyaku mainstay-ness.

For those still uncertain, the rabbit hole continues.

• 1957 - Asashio was promoted with 8-7, 8-7, 13-2 Y (29 wins)
  • Two ozeki prior to promotion, four yokozuna.
• 1959 - Wakahaguro was promoted with 7-8, 11-4, 12-3 J (30 wins)
  • One ozeki prior to promotion, three yokozuna
• 1960 - Kashiwado was promoted with 9-6, 10-5, 11-4 (30 wins)
  • Two Ozeki prior to promotion, two yokozuna
• 1961 - Kitabayama was promoted with 8-7, 9-6, 11-4 J (28 wins)
  • Four ozeki prior to promotion, two yokozuna
• 1962 - Sadanoyama was promoted with 8-7, 9-6, 13-2 Y (30 wins)
  • Two ozeki prior to promotion, three yokozuna
• 1966 - Kitanofuji was promoted with 8-7, 10-5, 10-5 (28 wins)
  • One ozeki prior to promotion, four yokozuna
• 1966 - Tamanoshima was promoted with 10-5, 9-6, 11-4 (28 wins)
  • Two ozeki prior to promotion, four yokozuna
• 1975 - Kaiketsu was promoted with 7-8, 12-3 Y, 11-4 J
  • One ozeki prior to promotion, two yokozuna

I get that these are all old cases, and the argument that this was another time with lower standards is a fair one.

But the fact remains the the NSK wouldn't be doing something that hadn't been done before if they promoted Mitakeumi as is. Surely the fact that Kaiketsu and Wakahaguro had MK's in the three basho prior to promotion is more controversial than what we're looking at; which is the promotion at 30 wins of a rikishi who: 

• Has two yusho (minimum assuming he doesn't win here)
• Has only 9 MK in 37 Makunouchi basho.
  • 6 MK in 28 basho at sanyaku
    • No consecutive MK at sanyaku
    • Only consecutive MK once, and he got 10 wins immediately after
    • No MK since Kyushu 2020.
  • If he'd been promoted after his first yusho (Nagoya 2018), he'd still be ozeki today based on scores since.
• Has been kyujo for 5 matches in his whole career
  • Returned to basho both times, and got KK most recently (Hatsu 2019)

The dude has been ozeki in all but name for 3-4 years. It might not be the conventional three basho run, but he's proven he's worthy of the rank, arguably more than recent promotees.

So don't get me wrong, I hope he gets the 33 win minimum so everyone is satisfied, but IMO they should pull the trigger no matter how it goes from here.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Godango

[Reonito 1,522]

I summarized the predicament the NSK is in as follows over on Tachiai:

We’re in danger of running out of Ozeki. Takakeisho (1-3-7) will be kadoban in March, and Shodai (4-7) is one loss away from joining him. Should both fail to reach 8 wins in Osaka, we would not have the obligatory 2 Ozeki on the Natsu banzuke, even with Terunofuji filling a Yokozuna/Ozeki role, unless someone is promoted in the meantime. Conveniently, we have a serviceable candidate in long-serving san’yaku regular Sekiwake Mitakeumi (10-1), who’s already reached 30 wins over the past 3 basho. The only other rikishi who can mount a remotely plausible run is fellow Sekiwake Takanosho (6-5), who’d need to win at least 3 of his remaining 4 bouts and follow that up with a really strong performance in Osaka. I suppose M3e Tamawashi (7-4) is ranked just high enough that double-digit wins could count as the start of a run in a pinch, but even then he could not reach sumo’s second-highest rank until July. Anyone else would have to start from scratch in March.

[maglor 122]

If Mitakeumi manages to lose his last 4 bouts I don't see how he could possibly be promoted. More likely they just pray that either Shodai or Takakeisho get the 8 wins, giving them easy pairings if need be. 2-2, on the other hand, should probably be enough. 32 wins is perfectly fine, given both Shodai and Asanoyama got promoted with that number.

[Yamanashi 3,904]

Let's see, he's already fought the lone remaining Ozeki (luckily, before he withdrew), and he's faced every one from Komosubi to M4.  He has M5 Onosho on day 12, so with 3 matches left he has Y Terunofuji, S Takanosho and ... M5 Chiyoshoma?  I don't see him beating Terunofuji, but I also don't see him losing to all three of the others ( his previous basho record isn't all that collapse-y on the last five days).  So, at least 11?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Controversially, the optics of Mitakeumi's promotion chances might depend on Abi losing as well, whether to him or someone else. A junyusho arising from a loss to the eventual yokozuna yusho is no shame, but being joint junyusho is nothing to brag about. Shodai's matches are insignificant in the narrative now, so I wouldn't be surprised if Mitakeumi was dispatched to gatekeep Abi leading up to senshuraku. If he beats Abi then, I'd say his promotion is going to be pretty assured, even if he loses to Terunofuji and maybe drops one more. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

Yeah I've completely changed my mind on this and he's in with 12. It doesn't mean anything but Shodai's sumo has been really horrific, he's fulfilling the memes, so as that as a foil, no doubt Mitakeumi goes up.

[Fukuyamada 42]

I think it's likely that he'll make it, even if it's still uncertain. How healthy is Mitakeumi and does he have any long term injury concerns?

He could hold the ozeki rank for a few years, on his all-round sumo repertoire and consistency in producing winning scores.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 20/01/2022 at 04:58, Fukuyamada said:

I think it's likely that he'll make it, even if it's still uncertain. How healthy is Mitakeumi and does he have any long term injury concerns?

He could hold the ozeki rank for a few years, on his all-round sumo repertoire and consistency in producing winning scores.

Only went kyujo twice in his seven-year career, returned both times within the same basho, stuck it out till the end, and even fought his way to a KK the second time he did that. That controversially earned him a Fighting Spirit prize. If nothing he knows his limits - cf Takakeisho's disastrous attempt to return in his debut ozeki basho which led to a disgraceful second withdrawal. 

He has taken the odd knock now and then, sporting nice shiners and/or bandages from collisions at the tachiai, but doesn't have any publicly disclosed long-term injuries. If he had been promoted to ozeki anytime before now he'd still be one - that's how reliable he has been so far. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Asojima 2,874]

Mitakeumi already has the ozeki mentality.  Get your 8 and sit out the rest of the basho.  He is only missing the title.

[robnplunder 976]

  On 20/01/2022 at 02:29, Yamanashi said:

Let's see, he's already fought the lone remaining Ozeki (luckily, before he withdrew), and he's faced every one from Komosubi to M4.  He has M5 Onosho on day 12, so with 3 matches left he has Y Terunofuji, S Takanosho and ... M5 Chiyoshoma?  I don't see him beating Terunofuji, but I also don't see him losing to all three of the others ( his previous basho record isn't all that collapse-y on the last five days).  So, at least 11?

At least 12 and makes it to Ozeki.  At least, that's my hope.  

[Seiyashi 4,108]

His bout to Abi has just become vital. Lose that, and ozeki bye bye for sure. Even if he wins that, his ozeki hopes just took a big knock with his loss today. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Koorifuu 1,020]

It feels like Chiyoshoma falling on his leg ruined his mojo.

 

BUT Terunofuji struggling to put strength behind his knees after his loss could've scared them even further about the necessity of adding to the Y/O ranks. Everyone knows those knees are a bit of a timebomb but what a calamity (in many ways) it'd be for them to go off now.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

If Abi v Terunofuji is on day 14 (not out of the question regardless of the result of Mitakeumi v Abi tomorrow), then Abi could himself be making a case for ozeki pretty soon. It wouldn't be difficult to allow Terunofuji a few basho kyujo to avoid having to look for one more ozeki, and between Takakeisho and Shodai it's not actually that likely IMO that both will go MK while kadoban in March (Shodai is still technically not kadoban although it's quite a small hope that he won't be by the end of the basho). If Mitakeumi collapses in the home stretch and loses to both Abi and Terunofuji, there is no way they're going to promote him, potential shortage of ozeki be damned, and that's a bridge the NSK will cross when they get to it. Things could have been different if both ozeki were kadoban this basho and went kyujo/MK.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 20/01/2022 at 00:28, Godango said:

6 MK in 28 basho at sanyaku

And only 9 in Makuuchi. Plus, you should emphasize also the quality of those sanyaku MKs: Never once has he scored fewer than six wins as Komusubi or Sekiwake and 7-8 is his most common MK score. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Eikokurai

[bettega 431]

Right now he would be just another mediocre Ozeki. 

[Reonito 1,522]

  On 20/01/2022 at 12:44, Seiyashi said:

Abi could himself be making a case for ozeki pretty soon

Aki at the earliest, no? M6 is too low to count.

[Godango 1,015]

  On 20/01/2022 at 23:17, Reonito said:

Aki at the earliest, no? M6 is too low to count.

I could see them maybe counting M6 if it were an ozeki + yokozuna defeating 13-2 yusho, but that's what it would take imo.

[Reonito 1,522]

  On 21/01/2022 at 00:28, Godango said:

I could see them maybe counting M6 if it were an ozeki + yokozuna defeating 13-2 yusho, but that's what it would take imo.

It would be a first; no run in the six-basho era started below M4 ... but these are strange times.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

If Mitakeumi flames out and both Takakeisho and Shodai really get demoted, and the NSK doesn't have a solution to the 2-ozeki conundrum, they'll have to bend the rules a bit if Abi puts up a decent run and they don't want to be stuck in the problem longer than they need to be. Otherwise, I agree; M6 is classically too low to start an ozeki run, and the only thing in his favour is that Abi has fought a yokozuna in two basho in a row despite his rank. But the run itself might not need to wait till Aki since Abi's almost certainly going to be sanyaku this basho (might even leapfrog the competition to sekiwake) and the good M6 result may justify a slightly lowered threshold for his run (maybe 31/32 instead?). He might be on the run as early as Natsu, and if Terunofuji happens to be kyujo then there's relatively little stopping Abi from racking up the wins in his current state.

Too much depends on the end of this basho as well as the next, which seems to be a planning frame longer than the NSK wants to think about. A lot has to go wrong together to not have two ozeki/YO in Natsu, whereas any number of things going right individually will make the problem go away till at least Nagoya. Shodai now has an easy schedule and might not even go kadoban. Takakeisho probably comes back reasonably well from his injury kyujo as he usually has. Mitakeumi might yet be promoted if he puts up a good showing these three days. Hell, Shodai going kadoban might make Mitakeumi more promotable too.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 537]

  On 21/01/2022 at 06:53, Seiyashi said:

If Mitakeumi flames out and both Takakeisho and Shodai really get demoted, and the NSK doesn't have a solution to the 2-ozeki conundrum, they'll have to bend the rules a bit if Abi puts up a decent run and they don't want to be stuck in the problem longer than they need to be. Otherwise, I agree; M6 is classically too low to start an ozeki run, and the only thing in his favour is that Abi has fought a yokozuna in two basho in a row despite his rank.

Too much depends on the end of this basho as well as the next, which seems to be a planning frame longer than the NSK wants to think about. A lot has to go wrong together to not have two ozeki/YO in Natsu, whereas any number of things going right individually will make the problem go away till at least Nagoya. Shodai now has an easy schedule and might not even go kadoban. Takakeisho probably comes back reasonably well from his injury kyujo as he usually has. Mitakeumi might yet be promoted if he puts up a good showing these three days. Hell, Shodai going kadoban might make Mitakeumi more promotable too.

Well, here we go. Shodai kadoban and Mitakeumi 11-2. Things are shaping out.

So, two kadoban Ozeki next basho with no reassurances of better performances in Haru. Shodai is clearly depressed or not there mentally anyway. Takakeisho is usually good when healthy but - will he be healthy next time? The NSK being the NSK, I've understood they will wait until next basho before calling it an emergency. But I wonder whether they will see a prospective 12-3 Mitakeumi more "ozeki-able" now.

Always about Ozeki runs, I think they'd better count Abi's last two bashos as valid if he goes 10+ in Haru. Of course I read that an Ozeki run does not usually start at M6w (not mentioning M15w) but there are good reasons to make an exception. Abi was in the yusho race in both Kyushu and now, with repeated bouts (and frequent wins) against san'yaku and upper Maegashira both times, including the Yokozuna himself. He won his match against Takakeisho (the best Ozeki they can provide at the moment) and never did poor stunts. The NSK must look at their situation: they have a non-Ozeki (Shodai) and an Ozeki-while-healthy (Takakeisho), more a Yokozuna on time-bomb knees. By the way, anyone (aside from Kintamayama who pointed it out in his video) noticed that Terunofuji was limping a bit today? They NEED a couple of 10+ win regulars at the top.

But again, we will probably have all the answers in Haru. If both Shodai and Takakeisho will get another MK, perhaps they'll consider Abi. Otherwise, he'd better keep doing 10+ per basho ad nauseam.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

If Mitakeumi is promoted and the two kadoban ozeki go MK or kyujo they don't need to rush into promoting Abi. They still have Terunofuji as East Yokozuna Ozeki in that case and Mitakeumi as West Ozeki. Mitakeumi at least has a very good basho attendance record and Terunofuji can take multiple kyujo if needed, so that firms up the upper end of the banzuke for at least a year give-or-take. Better to promote Mitakeumi, Goeido-style (especially if he wins tomorrow), than bend so far backwards to stretch an ozeki run start to M6w never mind M15! 

Abi's staying power against a full sanyaku/joi schedule also has yet to be tested, and being ozeki/yokozuna is more about consistency at that high level of competition rather than just racking up wins and fighting them sometimes. He looks good, sure, but his week 1 schedules have been pushovers compared to the other two contenders. The last time he was at komusubi for 4 basho, he went 8-7, 9-6, 9-6, and 5-10 and never won on shonichi; I think he will do a lot better this time but it's still too early to tell.

The problem with a double kadoban demotion is that it chokes up lower sanyaku a lot, because they must be sekiwake. It's perhaps for this reason that technically, an ozeki run need not include basho at sekiwake (but has almost always covered the joi). Back in 2019 when the old guard of ozeki and Takakeisho were taking it in turns to be demoted, and with Mitakeumi in the East Sekiwake slot, a lot of KK komusubi were hard done by, including IIRC Abi. That said, it doesn't look like there's anyone else other than Abi storming up in a hurry, so that might not be a big problem except for someone's end of career references (e.g. if Abi had been forced to retire last year, he would have been forever referred to as former komusubi despite arguably deserving sekiwake on at least two occasions).

Edited January 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,437]

I can’t see them being keen to count an M15 in an Ozeki run at the best of times, but especially not with Abi, who let’s not forget is still on probation/parole of sorts. They’re hardly likely to bend the rules for a guy they almost kicked out of sumo a year ago.

[Godango 1,015]

 

  On 21/01/2022 at 12:49, Eikokurai said:

I can’t see them being keen to count an M15 in an Ozeki run at the best of times, but especially not with Abi, who let’s not forget is still on probation/parole of sorts. They’re hardly likely to bend the rules for a guy they almost kicked out of sumo a year ago.

Given Abi's disciplinary history I would be stunned if they promoted him with anything other than 33 wins over 3 basho, all ranked in junior sanyaku. Even then, I expect they'd make him do more, given they had to demote (suspend) an ozeki for the same indiscretion he was punished for. He has a (deservedly) uphill battle to ozeki IMO.

Mitakeumi on the other hand, just got a slightly easier path. Murray yesterday and the English announcer today (I can't remember who it was) seemed to think it wouldn't happen no matter how this basho finishes, and they'd know better than I do. 

I won't again go into all the reasons I think he should be promoted, but now I have pause as to whether it will actually happen. Wouldn't be the first thime I thought something was common sense and the NSK disagreed, and in fairness, what do I know?

[Akinomaki 40,797]

  On 21/01/2022 at 11:07, Hankegami said:

So, two kadoban Ozeki next basho with no reassurances of better performances in Haru. Shodai is clearly depressed or not there mentally anyway. Takakeisho is usually good when healthy but - will he be healthy next time? The NSK being the NSK, I've understood they will wait until next basho before calling it an emergency. But I wonder whether they will see a prospective 12-3 Mitakeumi more "ozeki-able" now.

We are in chaotic times now and the rikishi may no longer have the qualities of those in the past, but just a reminder that there have been plenty of basho with 2 ozeki going kadoban (and this century 3 times 3 went kadoban) Query?rank=O&wins=0-7&year=1969-2022

but never a double demotion the next basho Query?form2_rank=s

Edited January 21, 2022 by Akinomaki

[Katooshu 3,335]

If he gets 1 more win I'd be very surprised at a non-promotion, regardless of his yusho/doten/J status for the basho. He's a bit to ozeki like Kiseonsato was to yokozuna for so long, except he's actually got 2 yusho already...

And if they are considering the precariousness of the other ozeki, well here is a super consistent 9-6/8-7 (sometimes much better) iron man, who is totally uncontroversial as well. He'd be a very good fit.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Katooshu