Mitakeumi Ozeki Promotion

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 21/01/2022 at 16:58, Akinomaki said:

  On 21/01/2022 at 11:07, Hankegami said:

So, two kadoban Ozeki next basho with no reassurances of better performances in Haru. Shodai is clearly depressed or not there mentally anyway. Takakeisho is usually good when healthy but - will he be healthy next time? The NSK being the NSK, I've understood they will wait until next basho before calling it an emergency. But I wonder whether they will see a prospective 12-3 Mitakeumi more "ozeki-able" now.

We are in chaotic times now and the rikishi may no longer have the qualities of those in the past, but just a reminder that there have been plenty of basho with 2 ozeki going kadoban (and this century 3 times 3 went kadoban) Query?rank=O&wins=0-7&year=1969-2022

but never a double demotion the next basho Query?form2_rank=s

For a little more context, though, we were relatively overloaded with ozeki in the early part of this millennium. It's much rarer to have all serving ozeki go kadoban, which has happened twice before as far as I can see. The closest analogue to this basho would be Nagoya 2018 when both extant ozeki went kadoban, but Tochinoshin was kicking ass and taking names on his own clear ozeki run. The last time two of this current batch of ozeki went kadoban (Shodai and Asanoyama), Takakeisho won the yusho.

Also, on reviewing Mitakeumi's record, if he hadn't dropped two random bouts to Onosho and Okinoumi back in Aki 2021, he would be ozeki with this record he's posting now with 11 wins in three consecutive basho. The losses to Onosho both then and this basho are especially jarring, because before that, the record was a lopsided 8-2. At least the H2H with Okinoumi is a flatter 5-5. If he doesn't manage to go 13 and/or secure the promotion next basho if the NSK so demand, he'll be kicking himself for those two bouts.

More sinisterly, I don't think Mitakeumi is going to make it ever if he doesn't make this run. He's a very different presence on the dohyo this basho to the extent of being almost an act, and it's not easy to be something you are not used to. If the results don't follow, it is entirely natural to think "sod it, I'm not doing this again" and end his career as the eternal sekiwake.

Edited January 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Cross-posting for a little more context on Mitakeumi's run, which makes me feel a little more wary of his chances. TLDR; his results as a sekiwake have been about on par with Shodai's as an ozeki in terms of good performance, which gives the NSK little incentive to promote him in the hope that he will be a strong ozeki like Asanoyama.

It basically boils down to how desperate the NSK feel about needing one more ozeki, or whether they'd prefer to hold out for a more orthodox promotion case. Isegahama's zensho comment was made before the double ozeki meltdown, so we genuinely don't know if their opinions have changed. But if it has, now is the time for media reports on it to start filtering out.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[robnplunder 976]

Mitakeumi has gone 7 straight KK as a sanyuku member, increasing his win-total in each of his last 4 bashos (8-9-11-12(13?)).   If I were on the Ozeki selection committee, I'd take those two into consideration.  He has also secured at least a jun-yusho in this basho.   Of course, Mitakeumi can make it easy for the committee to decide by beating Terunofuji tomorrow for his third yusho. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

  On 22/01/2022 at 10:34, robnplunder said:

He has also secured at least a jun-yusho in this basho.

A doten, in fact, since from his position the worst he can do is a playoff. That's a 'yusho equivalent'.

[Godango 1,014]

I just don't see how it doesn't happen at this point. His worst case scenario for this tournament is 12-3 D,  being on top of the leaderboard the entire way and defeating an incumbent ozeki. He is clearly, CLEARLY, at least on par with the current ozeki.

Further, promotion at 32 wins has been done 9 times in the modern era, including the relatively recent examples of Kisenosato, Goeido, Asanoyama and Shodai. If Mitakeumi lost tomorrow, his run would fit in seemlessly with those other promotees at 32 wins, as we see below:

Two runs (Goeido and Shodai) include an 8-7.

• Shodai also has a fusensho in his 11-4.

• Every run contains at least 1 jun-yusho, with only Shodai earning a yusho.

The NSK would be looking a gift horse in the mouth if they don't promote Mitakeumi now.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Godango

[rhyen 1,846]

  On 22/01/2022 at 09:53, Seiyashi said:

Cross-posting for a little more context on Mitakeumi's run, which makes me feel a little more wary of his chances. TLDR; his results as a sekiwake have been about on par with Shodai's as an ozeki in terms of good performance, which gives the NSK little incentive to promote him in the hope that he will be a strong ozeki like Asanoyama.

It basically boils down to how desperate the NSK feel about needing one more ozeki, or whether they'd prefer to hold out for a more orthodox promotion case. Isegahama's zensho comment was made before the double ozeki meltdown, so we genuinely don't know if their opinions have changed. But if it has, now is the time for media reports on it to start filtering out.

Wasn’t Goiedo’s presence and the commentary on his ozeki promotion today, a big enough hint?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 22/01/2022 at 14:27, rhyen said:

Wasn’t Goiedo’s presence and the commentary on his ozeki promotion today, a big enough hint?

I wonder when Goeido's promotion was informally announced to the media. IIRC it was mentioned before senshuraku, right?

EDIT: Fujishima says "he doesn't know", which suggests Mita really needs to win one more.

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202201220000729.html?cx_testId=66&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=0

Edited January 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,107]

  On 22/01/2022 at 14:49, Seiyashi said:

I wonder when Goeido's promotion was informally announced to the media. IIRC it was mentioned before senshuraku, right?

I distinctly remember watching Kintamayama's digest, and he said before the Day 15 bout that it had been announced that Goeido would be promoted with a win.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,809]

Congratulations to Ozeki Mitakeumi. He earned it. 

[Kamitsuumi 402]

The judging committee will meet today (Sunday Jan 23) before the bouts start, on the topic of Mitakeumi's promotion.

[Yamanashi 3,903]

  On 22/01/2022 at 14:21, Godango said:

The NSK would be looking a gift horse in the mouth if they don't promote Mitakeumi now.

150% agree.  To remind everyone again, he's applying for the Ozeki position, not Yokozuna.  The current Ozeki corps have not dominated the Yokozunæ, so why a 12-2 Mitakeumi needs to beat Terunofuji for the Yusho to move up is mystifying.

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

  On 22/01/2022 at 14:21, Godango said:

Glad I'm not the only doofus struggling with Excel's date-conversion nuisance.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

  On 22/01/2022 at 16:34, Yamanashi said:

  On 22/01/2022 at 14:21, Godango said:

The NSK would be looking a gift horse in the mouth if they don't promote Mitakeumi now.

150% agree.  To remind everyone again, he's applying for the Ozeki position, not Yokozuna.  The current Ozeki corps have not dominated the Yokozunæ, so why a 12-2 Mitakeumi needs to beat Terunofuji for the Yusho to move up is mystifying.

I agree with the sentiment that the NSK is missing a great opportunity if they don't promote him, but I don't think the problem is having to beat a yokozuna for the yusho per se. Were his opponent Shodai or Oho tomorrow he'd still need to win. Mitakeumi needs to show that he's more than just someone who can get 90% of the way there and then fail, unlike the current villain of the basho Shodai.

Shodai has set such a low bar that any contender almost certainly looks better than him, but the question is whether it meets the NSK's standard of the hypothetical ozeki that would go on the 33/3 run give or take a little. The whole "we've got weak ozeki/yokozuna incumbents" argument is always double-edged; yes, it creates an incentive to loosen promotion criteria but by the same token, if the incumbents were so weak, the rikishi aiming to join them at the rank shouldn't be having difficulty exceeding their standards. Furthermore, if because of weak incumbents you accept promotees that would have been below average but just look better than the current rock bottom ones, that's just kicking the can down the road when that chap goes kadoban town again. 

I think there's only so far you can go with the "not loosening standards" argument, because each era of rikishi is what it is and there's no use holding them up to an idealised standard. But at the same time, based solely on comparing his and Shodai's prepromotion records and Mitakeumi's long but relatively undistinguished career in the sanyaku (barring 2x yusho), there is a case to be made that he's perhaps not quite yet at the level any basic ozeki should be. Even on Godango's excellent table, Mitakeumi's main claim to fame is sanyaku tenure, and the comparisons with Goeido, another not quite great ozeki, are worrying.

He should be promoted for the sake of banzuke stability and because he has met the standards of other promotees, yes, but he's unlikely to amount to much more, which again extends the malaise of the ozeki corps in not really having strong contenders since it produced Kisenosato and Kakuryu. Would that Asanoyama hadn't been a dunce last year.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Fashiritētā 184]

Bad back Mita vs Bad knees Teru for the Yusho, yay , drama

[Hakuryuho 335]

  On 22/01/2022 at 17:00, Seiyashi said:

I agree with the sentiment that the NSK is missing a great opportunity if they don't promote him, but I don't think the problem is having to beat a yokozuna for the yusho per se. Were his opponent Shodai or Oho tomorrow he'd still need to win. Mitakeumi needs to show that he's more than just someone who can get 90% of the way there and then fail, unlike the current villain of the basho Shodai.

Shodai has set such a low bar that any contender almost certainly looks better than him, but the question is whether it meets the NSK's standard of the hypothetical ozeki that would go on the 33/3 run give or take a little. The whole "we've got weak ozeki/yokozuna incumbents" argument is always double-edged; yes, it creates an incentive to loosen promotion criteria but by the same token, if the incumbents were so weak, the rikishi aiming to join them at the rank shouldn't be having difficulty exceeding their standards. Furthermore, if because of weak incumbents you accept promotees that would have been below average but just look better than the current rock bottom ones, that's just kicking the can down the road when that chap goes kadoban town again. 

I think there's only so far you can go with the "not loosening standards" argument, because each era of rikishi is what it is and there's no use holding them up to an idealised standard. But at the same time, based solely on comparing his and Shodai's prepromotion records and Mitakeumi's long but relatively undistinguished career in the sanyaku (barring 2x yusho), there is a case to be made that he's perhaps not quite yet at the level any basic ozeki should be. Even on Godango's excellent table, Mitakeumi's main claim to fame is sanyaku tenure, and the comparisons with Goeido, another not quite great ozeki, are worrying.

He should be promoted for the sake of banzuke stability and because he has met the standards of other promotees, yes, but he's unlikely to amount to much more, which again extends the malaise of the ozeki corps in not really having strong contenders since it produced Kisenosato and Kakuryu. Would that Asanoyama hadn't been a dunce last year.

I think what makes him stand apart from the likes of Goeido etc. is his proven ability to win the whole thing, which he's already done twice. 
That coupled with the fact that he's a consistent performer over an entire basho (looking at his sanyaku staying power) who has the occasional 
"positive outburst" i.e. a double-digit result or even a Yusho should speak in his favour.

I think he has done enough already and I think he will be a decent, albeit not great, Ozeki.
He's earned it.
 

[Koorifuu 1,020]

I find it interesting how nobody* is taking into consideration that, even if Mitakeumi fails tomorrow and doesn't get promoted, he'll still go into Haru with 23 wins in 2 basho, which would make his odds more promising than they were two weeks ago. It's as if everyone expects him to crash and burn mentally if he fails here.

*Unless I've accidentally skipped a reply, in which case I apologise.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Rocks 1,809]

  On 22/01/2022 at 18:13, Koorifuu said:

I find it interesting how nobody* is taking into consideration that, even if Mitakeumi fails tomorrow and doesn't get promoted, he'll still go into Haru with 23 wins in 2 basho, which would make his odds more promising than they were two weeks ago. It's as if everyone expects him to crash and burn mentally if he fails here.

*Unless I've accidentally skipped a reply, in which case I apologise.

This is the second time he's got 31 wins over 3 basho. The first time he won the yusho. He has at least a playoff this time. He's won 2 already. They won't deny him again. It's not a matter of he's still in good shape record wise and his promotion would be marginal. It isn't marginal.  

[robnplunder 976]

  On 22/01/2022 at 18:36, Rocks said:

This is the second time he's got 31 wins over 3 basho. The first time he won the yusho. He has at least a playoff this time. He's won 2 already. They won't deny him again. It's not a matter of he's still in good shape record wise and his promotion would be marginal. It isn't marginal.  

He has 32 wins as of today.  If he beats Terunofusji for the 3rd yusho, Mitakeumi cannot be denied the Ozeki promotion.   IMO, even if Mitakeumi loses, he will/should get the promotion. 

[Rocks 1,809]

  On 22/01/2022 at 21:56, robnplunder said:

He has 32 wins as of today.  If he beats Terunofusji for the 3rd yusho, Mitakeumi cannot be denied the Ozeki promotion.   IMO, even if Mitakeumi loses, he will/should get the promotion. 

I think it's likely they announce they promotion before the matches even start. 

[robnplunder 976]

  On 22/01/2022 at 21:58, Rocks said:

I think it's likely they announce they promotion before the matches even start. 

That'd be good.   However, I don't know if that will help Mitakeumi to beat Terunofuji for his 3rd yusho or not.  He'd be all fired up, or lose focus.  I am hoping for the former.

 

[Rocks 1,809]

One thing for sure. It's a lock for Ozeki if he wins but I don't think they even needed to say that with 33 wins and a Yusho. 

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a8da68c555c45ee729272e49ca7faae37b273e2f

[Godango 1,014]

  On 22/01/2022 at 16:58, Jakusotsu said:

Glad I'm not the only doofus struggling with Excel's date-conversion nuisance.

Haha far out man. I was struggling with formatting so much(edited the post about 5 times just so the table would display properly) I didn't even notice this. And I'm not going to be in a position to fix it anytime soon. 

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

  On 22/01/2022 at 21:58, Rocks said:

I think it's likely they announce they promotion before the matches even start. 

Er, no.

[Sue 520]

  On 22/01/2022 at 18:13, Koorifuu said:

I find it interesting how nobody* is taking into consideration that, even if Mitakeumi fails tomorrow and doesn't get promoted, he'll still go into Haru with 23 wins in 2 basho, which would make his odds more promising than they were two weeks ago. It's as if everyone expects him to crash and burn mentally if he fails here.

That's because he's Mitakeumi.

[Churaumi 745]

I said he'd be a forever sekiwake. His chances are really good.