GTB invite- Haru 2022- RESULTS!! - 164 entries (26 newbies)

[Asashosakari 19,651]

FWIW, I'm honestly not very concerned about the potential harshness to Daieisho. IMHO, this is an "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" situation; the joi is just very rarely in a crunch like this. Elsewhere, e.g. juryo after Kyushu 2016, they've shown themselves to be completely willing to engage in massive overdemotions if the situation called for it. (On a vaguely related side note, I think on this banzuke we're going to see a 3-4 demotion from makushita to sandanme that ties for the harshest of the last couple of decades.)

[Reonito 1,519]

21 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

FWIW, I'm honestly not very concerned about the potential harshness to Daieisho. IMHO, this is an "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" situation; the joi is just very rarely in a crunch like this. Elsewhere, e.g. juryo after Kyushu 2016, they've shown themselves to be completely willing to engage in massive overdemotions if the situation called for it. (On a vaguely related side note, I think on this banzuke we're going to see a 3-4 demotion from makushita to sandanme that ties for the harshest of the last couple of decades.)

Fair enough, though snubbing Onosho would also not be completely out of character. The solution I worry about in terms of losing a lot of points is them not promoting Ura, Ichinojo, and Tamawashi, given that something similar did happen once.

[Asashosakari 19,651]

30 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Fair enough, though snubbing Onosho would also not be completely out of character. The solution I worry about in terms of losing a lot of points is them not promoting Ura, Ichinojo, and Tamawashi, given that something similar did happen once.

The infamous "7-8 sekiwake getting dumped to maegashira" mini-era!  Having Ura/Ichinojo/Tamawashi stand pat would certainly be my solution if this was a sumo game banzuke I'm in charge of.* Of course, compared to 1991 there's the added complication here that the expanded sanyaku means it would effectively be a demotion. Not that there's any firm evidence that they ever consider that aspect.

(On the flipside, I partly justified my Takanosho placement at Sw to myself by considering that that is effectively a demotion...)

* Edit: Had to strike out the "game" part. According to my game banzuke guidelines, I'd be demoting Daieisho to M3e no questions asked since even Tamawashi's 8-7 has the better rank/record combination. But for the real thing I'd certainly consider keeping Daieisho in front of all three 8-7's to be the most fair solution.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,100]

Usually just a couple hours after the deadline no one's spoken yet.  I'm not surprised though that people are jumping at showing what solution they came up with for this one.

Terunofuji(11-4 Ye)	Y
Shodai(6-9 Ow)	O	Takakeisho(1-3 Oe)
	O	Mitakeumi(13-2 Se)
Wakatakakage(9-6 M1e)	S	Abi(12-3 M6w)
Onosho(10-5 M5e)	K	Takanosho(7-8 Sw)
Hoshoryu(11-4 M6e)	M1	Daieisho(7-8 Kw)
Ura(8-7 M2e)	M2	Ichinojo(8-7 M2w)
Tamawashi(8-7 M3e)	M3	Meisei(5-10 Ke)
Kiribayama(6-9 M1w)	M4	Endo(7-8 M3w)
Takarafuji(9-6 M7w)	M5	Ishiura(11-4 M12e)
Hokutofuji(6-9 M4w)	M6	Kotonowaka(11-4 M14e)
Takayasu(0-0 M7e)	M7	Sadanoumi(8-7 M11e)
Okinoumi(4-11 M4e)	M8	Wakamotoharu(9-6 M15e)
Tobizaru(6-9 M8w)	M9	Chiyoshoma(4-11 M5w)
Shimanoumi(5-6 M9w)	M10	Myogiryu(5-8 M10e)
Aoiyama(8-7 M16e)	M11	Terutsuyoshi(7-8 M11w)
Kotoeko(8-7 M17e)	M12	Chiyotairyu(7-8 M12w)
Chiyomaru(7-8 M13e)	M13	Kotoshoho(11-4 J2w)
Chiyonokuni(4-11 M9e)	M14	Yutakayama(6-9 M13w)
Nishikigi(9-6 J2e)	M15	Tochinoshin(7-8 M15w)
Kotokuzan(10-5 J4w)	M16	Kagayaki(8-7 J1e)
Akua(4-11 M10w)	M17	Azumaryu(9-6 J5w)

Edited February 21, 2022 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,519]

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Shimanoumi(5-6 M9w) M10 Myogiryu(5-8 M10e)

Wow! Half-rank drops with 5 wins? Extra leniency for absentees?

[Kintamayama 45,518]

162 entries. New record for sure.

[Gurowake 4,100]

10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Wow! Half-rank drops with 5 wins? Extra leniency for absentees?

Shimanoumi deserves to be ahead of Aoiyama.  Myogiryu maybe should be behind Aoiyama, but should get the same treatment as Shimanoumi.  They've shown relatively recently that they don't care how lenient the demotions are, as long as they're demotions and they deserve to be ahead of the alternative, it's fine.  Yes, Tobizaru was at least a full rank, but once they've decided that a 5-10 can be demoted only one rank, what's stopping them from making it only a half rank?

[Kintamayama 45,518]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Aoiyama (M16e 8-7)       M10  Kotoeko (M17e 8-7)
Kotoshoho (J2w 11-4 Y)   M11  Terutsuyoshi (M11w 7-8)
Shimanoumi (M9w 5-6-4)   M12  Chiyotairyu (M12w 7-8)
Chiyomaru (M13e 7-8)     M13  Myogiryu (M10e 5-8-2)
Chiyonokuni (M9e 4-11)   M14  Yutakayama (M13w 6-9)
Akua (M10w 4-11)         M15  Tochinoshin (M15w 7-8)
Nishikigi (J2e 9-6)      M16  Kagayaki (J1e 8-7)
Kotokuzan (J4w 10-5)     M17  Azumaryu (J5w 9-6)

 

From 10-15E we have exactly the same guess. You should be worried.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 45,518]

I guess I'm the only one on the planet leaving Ichiyamamoto over Azumaryuu. I'm firm on that. We shall see. I also dropped Tochinoshin half a  rank. I also believe in symmetry regardless of anything else happening, Ura and Ichinojou-same rank, same record, both should be at M1. Which inevitably drops Daieishou to M3, but that's life.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Kintamayama

[Reonito 1,519]

31 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

I guess I'm the only one on the planet leaving Ichiyamamoto over Azumaryuu.

They could easily do that, or even keep both him and Tsurugisho and snub Kotokuzan (yet again).

[chishafuwaku 476]

I'm sure I'm the only one to have Asanowaka in the M17w position forgetting about Azumaryu 
I preferred to under promote Hoshoryu and Onosho...

Terunofuji	Y
Shodai	O	Takakeisho
	O	Mitakeumi
Wakatakakage	S	Abi
Takanosho	K	Ura
Daieisho	M1	Ichinojo
Hoshoryu	M2	Tamawashi
Onosho	M3	Kiribayama
Meisei	M4	Endo
Takarafuji	M5	Hokutofuji
Ishiura	M6	Kotonowaka
Takayasu	M7	Okinoumi
Sadanoumi	M8	Chiyoshoma
Tobizaru	M9	Wakamotoharu
Aoiyama	M10	Kotoshoho
Kotoeko	M11	Terutsuyoshi
Shimanoumi	M12	Chiyotairyu
Chiyomaru	M13	Myogiryu
Nishikigi	M14	Kotokuzan
Chiyonokuni	M15	Yutakayama
Tochinoshin	M16	Kagayaki
Akua	M17	Asanowaka

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Usually just a couple hours after the deadline no one's spoken yet.  I'm not surprised though that people are jumping at showing what solution they came up with for this one.

Terunofuji(11-4 Ye)	Y
Shodai(6-9 Ow)	O	Takakeisho(1-3 Oe)
	O	Mitakeumi(13-2 Se)
Wakatakakage(9-6 M1e)	S	Abi(12-3 M6w)
Onosho(10-5 M5e)	K	Takanosho(7-8 Sw)
Hoshoryu(11-4 M6e)	M1	Daieisho(7-8 Kw)
Ura(8-7 M2e)	M2	Ichinojo(8-7 M2w)
Tamawashi(8-7 M3e)	M3	Meisei(5-10 Ke)
Kiribayama(6-9 M1w)	M4	Endo(7-8 M3w)
Takarafuji(9-6 M7w)	M5	Ishiura(11-4 M12e)
Hokutofuji(6-9 M4w)	M6	Kotonowaka(11-4 M14e)
Takayasu(0-0 M7e)	M7	Sadanoumi(8-7 M11e)
Okinoumi(4-11 M4e)	M8	Wakamotoharu(9-6 M15e)
Tobizaru(6-9 M8w)	M9	Chiyoshoma(4-11 M5w)
Shimanoumi(5-6 M9w)	M10	Myogiryu(5-8 M10e)
Aoiyama(8-7 M16e)	M11	Terutsuyoshi(7-8 M11w)
Kotoeko(8-7 M17e)	M12	Chiyotairyu(7-8 M12w)
Chiyomaru(7-8 M13e)	M13	Kotoshoho(11-4 J2w)
Chiyonokuni(4-11 M9e)	M14	Yutakayama(6-9 M13w)
Nishikigi(9-6 J2e)	M15	Tochinoshin(7-8 M15w)
Kotokuzan(10-5 J4w)	M16	Kagayaki(8-7 J1e)
Akua(4-11 M10w)	M17	Azumaryu(9-6 J5w)

I mostly submitted mine here on account of the fact that I expect my listing to go kyujo and in the event that the entry was unexpectedly competitive this would be the only evidence of it.

[Ganzohnesushi 526]

This is definitively one of the hardest Banzuke ever to predict. Instead of 'wasting' time to think about it I could have just as well doing it by rolling some dice. According to my entry anything beyond 35 points would surprise me. I assume the only correct Maegashira will be Takayasu's M7e, but even that is not guaranteed.

Ganzohnesushi

[ScreechingOwl 343]

23 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

The infamous "7-8 sekiwake getting dumped to maegashira" mini-era!  Having Ura/Ichinojo/Tamawashi stand pat would certainly be my solution if this was a sumo game banzuke I'm in charge of.* Of course, compared to 1991 there's the added complication here that the expanded sanyaku means it would effectively be a demotion. Not that there's any firm evidence that they ever consider that aspect.

Isn't the question really whether three wrongs make a right? For what it's worth, I went with moving the trio up and "under"promoting Onosho on the theory that the banzuke committee will do whatever the hell it wants to anyway. It would be a fairer (and saner) world if Asahosakari made the banzuke. But I learned long ago that fairness is a relative concept in sumo....

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

8 hours ago, ScreechingOwl said:

It would be a fairer (and saner) world if Asahosakari made the banzuke.

Daieisho might disagree.

[Suwihuto 133]

Of course I missed that Takayasu wouldn't lose rank, which throws everything else out below that point for me. However, I have a tendency to overpromote from Juryo to make sure full demotions are made, but this generally doesn't seem to be how things are done. Either way, maybe all the mistakes will balance each other...

[SDM 9]

On 21/02/2022 at 23:53, Kintamayama said:

I guess I'm the only one on the planet leaving Ichiyamamoto over Azumaryuu. I'm firm on that. We shall see. I also dropped Tochinoshin half a  rank. I also believe in symmetry regardless of anything else happening, Ura and Ichinojou-same rank, same record, both should be at M1. Which inevitably drops Daieishou to M3, but that's life.

Not the only one, me too

[SDM 9]

I originally had this but probably underpromotes Onosho and Hoshoryu.

Still I cant see dropping Daieisho 3 ranks for a 7-8.

Other possibility is to hold 8-7 Ichinojo and Tamawashi but that also seems wrong...

[Wamahada 57]

49 Points, maybe I am KK, don‘t know. Lower Maegashira were a catastrophe for me.

Wamahada

Edited February 27, 2022 by Wamahada
Completion of comment

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

43 here. I thought it was going to be worse before hitting an unlikely run of dead hits from M11-M15.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

42. Everyone up to Takayasu was quite alright (losing only 2 side swaps and 4 points from Onosho/Daieisho), then it was an absolute disaster from there out.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

On 21/02/2022 at 13:42, Hoshotakamoto said:

I am intending to eventually replace my picks with a computer generated lineup but I didn't make any headway on it in the past 2 months.

I was desperately pushing buttons at 17:59 GMT to try and get these submitted and had to fall back on an email submission so I don't know if anything will be official for me this month.

Also these are my least favorite picks in 4 outings to date - I'm not willing to defend basically any of them (except Oho > Azumaryu).

 

Terunofuji (Ye 11-4)     Y    ---
Shodai (Ow 6-9)          O1   Takakeisho (Oe 1-3-11)
---                      O2   Mitakeumi (Se 13-2 Y)
Wakatakakage (M1e 9-6)   S    Abi (M6w 12-3)        
Takanosho (Sw 7-8)       K    Hoshoryu (M6e 11-4)      

Ura (M2e 8-7)            M1   Daieisho (Kw 7-8)        
Ichinojo (M2w 8-7)       M2   Tamawashi (M3e 8-7)
Onosho (M5e 10-5)        M3   Kiribayama (M1w 6-9)     
Meisei (Ke 5-10)         M4   Endo (M3w 7-8)
Takarafuji (M7w 9-6)     M5   Ishiura (M12e 11-4)
Kotonowaka (M14e 11-4)   M6   Hokutofuji (M4w 6-9)
Takayasu (M7e kosho)     M7   Okinoumi (M4e 4-11)
Sadanoumi (M11e 8-7)     M8   Wakamotoharu (M15e 9-6)
Tobizaru (M8w 6-9)       M9   Chiyoshoma (M5w 4-11)
Aoiyama (M16e 8-7)       M10  Kotoeko (M17e 8-7)
Terutsuyoshi (M11w 7-8)  M11  Chiyotairyu (M12w 7-8)
Myogiryu (M10e 5-8-2)    M12  Shimanoumi (M9w 5-6-4)
Chiyonokuni (M9e 4-11)   M13  Chiyomaru (M13e 7-8)
Yutakayama (M13w 6-9)    M14  Kotoshoho (J2w 11-4 Y)
Akua (M10w 4-11)         M15  Tochinoshin (M15w 7-8)
Nishikigi (J2e 9-6)      M16  Kagayaki (J1e 8-7)
Kotokuzan (J4w 10-5)     M17  Oho (M18e 7-8)

 

Fairly certain GTB is going to mark me kyujo.

Y (2)

O1 (4)
O2 (2)
S (4)
K (4)
M1 (2 - flipped)
M2 (4)
M3 (2 - Meisei over Kiribayama)
M4 (2 - Kiribayama under Meisei)
M5 (4)
M6 (2 - flipped)
M7 (4)
M8 (1 - Chiyoshoma underpromoted)
M9 (2 - Chiyoshoma vs Wakabro)
M10 (1 - Shimanoumi underdemoted)
M11 (1 - Myogiryu underdemoted)
M12 (0)
M13 (2 - flipped)
M14 (2 - flipped)
M15 (4)
M16 (2 - Kagayaki vs Kotokuzan)
M17 (0)
total 51

[Koorifuu 1,020]

My bold guess they'd thoroughly shaft Hoshoryu with the M3e slot, based on the fact he's Hoshoryu, sure didn't pan out.  I'm happy for him.

Well, if my calculations are OK, I've incredibly - shockingly, even - gotten a score that's actually better than "absolutely hapless". 42. Some bipolarity in here, mangling nearly the entire eastern side of the banzuke, but with a lot of braces coming from the west.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Gurowake 4,100]

I have 48.  For how many things I'm frustrated at the Kyokai for doing, that seems like a pretty good score.  I'm pretty sure there are people who got the joi spot on, and they're going to have some nice scores.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Gurowake

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I'm just glad they had my back on Oho > Azumaryu. Even if I was completely blindsided by the preservation of Ichiyamamoto's top division spot in the process.