Next Ozeki?

[dingo 1,265]

18 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

People continue to doubt Abi and I don't know why. All he's done throughout his career is perform at every level. 

Here's what he accomplished prior to his suspension:

• Jonidan yusho
• Sandame yusho
• Makushita yusho
• Juryo yusho
• Kinboshi (2)
• Special prize (2)

And here's Abi since his suspension:

• Makushita yusho (2)
• Juryo yusho
• Makuuchi jun-yusho (2 in a row)
• Kinboshi
• Special prize (2)
• Record: 62-12

Of course it remains to be seen if he can make Ozeki because only a few select rikishi do, and next basho in Joi will tell us a lot about where he is, but I remain bullish on his chances to at least put together a strong run at it over the coming year barring injury. 

For me that's exactly why I remain sceptical. For all he's accomplished we know very little of his ability to maintain a good record in the joi/sanyaku. Except that his sumo is still relying on the same throat attacking with some pulls mixed in. It may work well against the higher ranks but it also might not take him anywhere in the longer term. 

[Octofuji 357]

1 hour ago, dingo said:

For me that's exactly why I remain sceptical. For all he's accomplished we know very little of his ability to maintain a good record in the joi/sanyaku. Except that his sumo is still relying on the same throat attacking with some pulls mixed in. It may work well against the higher ranks but it also might not take him anywhere in the longer term. 

He was putting up consistent 9-6s at komusubi against arguably a tougher slate of opponents, and only really dropped away (if I remember right) due to injury. He looks stronger now, and whenever he's been called upon to fight higher up the banzuke recently he's done really well. I think he's got as much chance as anyone except maybe Hoshoryu.

 

[Asashosakari 19,427]

37 minutes ago, Octofuji said:

He was putting up consistent 9-6s at komusubi against arguably a tougher slate of opponents,

I don't know about that, I recall the contemporary opinions being more that Abi was one of the beneficiaries of the high rankers beginning to fall apart. If we look at his big joi run from Natsu to Kyushu 2019 (10-5, 8-7, 9-6, 9-6), then his results by opponent were (W-L-no meeting):

1-2-1 vs Hakuho (the sole win was by fusensho)
0-2-2 vs Kakuryu
1-2-1 vs Goeido (retired one basho after this stretch)
2-1-1 vs Takayasu (lost his ozeki rank at the end of this stretch)
3-0-1 vs Tochinoshin (one win by fusensho, Tochinoshin lost his ozeki rank during this stretch)
1-0-3 vs Takakeisho
2-1-1 vs Mitakeumi
1-2-1 vs Asanoyama (just starting to gear up for his ozeki run)

Excluding the non-meetings against Mitakeumi and Asanoyama (both in Natsu) which were a function of rank and not absence, that's still 11 matches Abi didn't get to have against top-rankers in just four tournaments, including two which outright resulted in free wins, not just weaker replacement opponents.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Octofuji 357]

4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I don't know about that, I recall the contemporary opinions being more that Abi was one of the beneficiaries of the high rankers beginning to fall apart. If we look at his big joi run from Natsu to Kyushu 2019 (10-5, 8-7, 9-6, 9-6), then his results by opponent were (W-L-no meeting):

1-2-1 vs Hakuho (the sole win was by fusensho)
0-2-2 vs Kakuryu
1-2-1 vs Goeido
2-1-1 vs Takayasu
3-0-1 vs Tochinoshin (one win by fusensho)
1-0-3 vs Takakeisho
2-1-1 vs Mitakeumi
1-2-1 vs Asanoyama (just starting to gear up for his ozeki run)

Excluding the non-meetings against Mitakeumi and Asanoyama (both in Natsu) which were a function of rank and not absence, that's still 11 matches Abi didn't get to have against top-rankers in just four tournaments, including two which outright resulted in free wins, not just weaker replacement opponents.

That's a fair point, although that still makes 11 wins (2 fusensho) vs 10 losses against that lot.

[Asashosakari 19,427]

I've added a few more notes about the ozeki particularly. 

[Gurowake 4,088]

I personally don't see Abi as an Ozeki for the same reason that I use for practically everyone: he didn't get to the joi early enough in his life, and he had a long enough stretch in Ozumo for that to have been possible.  If after his first promotion to Juryo he had continued on to Makuuchi and up to the top of the banzuke by around the end of 2017, that would be a much better sign that he has the ability to make Ozeki.  Instead, he fell back to Makushita and languished for over a year, including an MK at Ms21.  He seemed to turn it around then, but unless there was some injury that was bugging him during that year that miraculously got better, it looks like he simply doesn't have the talent to make it, and needed more physical development to be able to get further up the banzuke.   While he did have some KKs in the joi, he never had double digits (unlike Meisei and Takanosho), and had a 7-8 at M4 right before the suspension, which looks to me like he simply had a good run that finally ended.  He hasn't had a full schedule of tough opponents, and a few of the new joi regulars weren't around back in his previous days (Meisei, Takanosho, Hoshoryu).  While because of the lack of competition he might be in the top 5 of rikishi today, the next 5 after that are so close in strength it's hard for anyone to push through without a significant advantage. 

 

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

11 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

You could add 2nd most wins of the year in 2019, 1 behind the leader Asanoyama with 55, though that year was a record low.

Also forgot to add winner of the prestigious Fuji TV one-day tourney!

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

5 hours ago, dingo said:

For me that's exactly why I remain sceptical. For all he's accomplished we know very little of his ability to maintain a good record in the joi/sanyaku. Except that his sumo is still relying on the same throat attacking with some pulls mixed in. It may work well against the higher ranks but it also might not take him anywhere in the longer term. 

I suppose it's reasonable to be skeptical of every rikishi making Ozeki until they finally do. You never know at which level, despite dominating at lower levels, a rikishi might plateau. The only further arguments I'll make in Abi's defense are the following:

1) He's put on significant size since his suspension but without loss of mobility

2) He just appears to have a completely different attitude since his suspension, and that, more than anything, may have been held him back before. 

In any case, as an unabashed Abi fan I'm enjoying his resurgence, and look forward to seeing what he can do in the coming year.

[Naganoyama 5,935]

7 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

...

2) He just appears to have a completely different attitude since his suspension,

...

At least some of that must be down to becoming a father which changes a lot of people.

It can't have been easy being under house arrest in the heya and unable to go and see his new child without the permission of his stable master.

[Seiyashi 4,098]

In any case, next basho should put Hoshoryu and Abi square in the middle of the joi (M1/K/S) where they can both prove themselves and start their own ozeki runs. We shall see.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[robnplunder 975]

On 24/01/2022 at 15:56, Kaninoyama said:

Consistency and weight go hand in hand in Hoshoryu's case. And it's not even weight he'll have to to to extreme to gain. He's still young and still growing into his sumo body. An extra 10 kilos over the next year or two will be part of his natural progression, and with it the added strength and stability needed to take his already elite belt game to the invincible level of someone like Terunofuji. 

And I suspect with his added weight and strength he'll be able to rely less on his fancy play syndrome as you suggest and be able to to dominate with his added strength and brilliant technique. 

+1.   

BTW, I don't see any "fancy play syndrome."  I see Hoshyoru trying his best to win any way he can. He just happens to have more techniques in his arsenal.  

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

On 24/01/2022 at 08:56, Kaninoyama said:

With perennial next-Ozeki Mitakeumi now off the market, there is no clear next rikishi-in-waiting so it might be fun to speculate. 

My power ranking:

1. Hoshoryu

Near can't miss barring injury. Has the skill, the desire, and the pedigree. His willingness to faceplant himself on the tawara against Shodai is just one example of how much he wants to win and hates to lose. Needs a few more kilos and a bit more experience. 

2. Abi

Always had the ability but lacked the pounds, the discipline, and the maturity. Recent results indicate he's found the missing ingredients and is ready to fulfill his potential. 

3. Takanosho

Perrenial joi/sanyaku mainstay. Has the size, strength, and skill, but lacking that one extra something to push him over the top. Maybe just experience. Feels a bit like the next Mitakeumi, but may end up  topping out as a Tochiozan or Myogiryu. 

4. Kotonowaka

Has the pedigree, size, and skill. Has had early injury concerns and needs a more experience, but is still very young and has produced excellent results when healthy. Likely not THE next Ozeki but has all the elements to be a future one. Maybe a Kisenosato-like trajectory moving forward. 

Special Mention:

Meisei, Daieisho, Wakatakakage, Kiribayama, Hokutofuji.

Your thoughts?

Thought I'd bring this back up from a couple years ago. Hoshoryu was an easy call, but there were still many doubters back then. Abi plateaued  while Takanosho developed injury woes and wasn't Ozeki material anyway. But there's Kotonowaka at #4. Kisenosato still feels like a good comparison to me stylistically.

And did any of us really see Kiribayama making such a leap two years ago? 

Edited January 29, 2024 by Kaninoyama

[dingo 1,265]

Kirishima seems a bit on a Kakuryu-like trajectory, taking into account his adjustment time in maegashira ranks before making ozeki. The difference is of course that Kirishima's yokozuna run started much faster. 

[Chartorenji 237]

I'll say it, I think Atamifuji is next up. 21 years old and already at the top of the Maegashira ranks, give him a basho or two and he could easily make his Sanyaku debut real soon and from there the flood gates are open. 

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

I would submit that Wakamotoharu has a non-zero shot at Ozeki within the next couple of basho. He seemed pretty solid throughout the basho. He had only two MK in his 13 Makuuchi basho, and has an average of 9 wins per basho overall as well as from the meatgrinder ranks. Add that he displays mental fortitude and general tenacity. Also, his physique and style are nowhere near the red zone on the injury-prone and age-detoriation continua.

Long shot? Sure. But not out of the question.

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

I'm all for Wakamotoharu, but age works even harder on him than on Asanoyama.

[Seregost 132]

36 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I would submit that Wakamotoharu has a non-zero shot at Ozeki within the next couple of basho. He seemed pretty solid throughout the basho. He had only two MK in his 13 Makuuchi basho, and has an average of 9 wins per basho overall as well as from the meatgrinder ranks. Add that he displays mental fortitude and general tenacity. Also, his physique and style are nowhere near the red zone on the injury-prone and age-detoriation continua.

Long shot? Sure. But not out of the question.

Until he breaks his neck "utcharing"

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I would submit […]

I noticed that I used the word "basho" four times in my first three sentences. Sincere apologies to all copy editors out there...

[RabidJohn 1,795]

I really like Wakamotoharu. He has a wonderful presence on the dohyo and he does the sort of sumo I like. I could easily see him as ozeki, but I believe he's going to have to get very lucky now. Those who've recently attained the rank are way too solid, and likely only to improve. 

But there's no shame in being a 9-win average rikishi with a sekiwake ceiling, and I'll keeping rooting for him on that basis.

[Yamanashi 3,866]

6 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I noticed that I used the word "basho" four times in my first three sentences. Sincere apologies to all copy editors out there...

I feel your pain.  I'll bet more than a few of us spend half our time writing a post, and the other half finding replacements for "basho" and "rikishi", etc.

[Oshirokita 188]

5 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I really like Wakamotoharu. He has a wonderful presence on the dohyo and he does the sort of sumo I like. I could easily see him as ozeki, but I believe he's going to have to get very lucky now. Those who've recently attained the rank are way too solid, and likely only to improve. 

But there's no shame in being a 9-win average rikishi with a sekiwake ceiling, and I'll keeping rooting for him on that basis.

Wakamotoharu can become the new gatekeeper rikishi, much like Wakanosato was in his day.

[just_some_guy 280]

On 24/01/2022 at 08:43, just_some_guy said:

Hoshoryu is the obvious choice, but I maintain that he needs to gain some weight first or will need to execute almost flawlessly to make up for it.

Abi is my next guess, and I think I might actually predict him as the frontrunner for it the way he's looked of late. However, his one-dimensionality is likely to give him trouble keeping the rank. Something as simple as an arm injury would force him to either adapt his sumo style or lose a bunch, and I'd bank on the latter.

Kotoshoho would be my third place guess as he seems to have a lot of potential and hasn't yet had the time to demonstrate where exactly his ceiling is.

Kotonowaka is tied for third for the exact same reasons as Kotoshoho.

Guess I could've done worse than these predictions despite the lack of Kiri(bayama/shima)...

I'm inclined to withdraw Kotoshoho from contention and likely Abi as well, though you never know with ol' Abby Normal. I think he's hit his ceiling but if he could find some consistency, he's one who can beat anybody.

If we are to renew our predictions, Daieisho has pole position but I've never expected him to make it. Onosato would be my next prediction, I suppose, though that's admittedly hasty.

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

31 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

Onosato would be my next prediction, I suppose, though that's admittedly hasty.

More like consensus.

[Fashiritētā 181]

I’m going to go with Hakuoho , ( yes, he’s soon to be Juryo), but has a high upside.

Onosato after that, then Takerefuji.

I honestly don’t see Abi , Daiesho , Wakamotoharu and Asanoyama getting no higher than Sekiwake.

 

 

[Jakusotsu 5,982]

42 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

I honestly don’t see Abi , Daiesho , Wakamotoharu and Asanoyama getting no higher than Sekiwake.

And I could care less.

(...apologies to everyone who doesn't get the joke...)