Natsu 2022 Discussion Thread - here be spoilers

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

9 hours ago, lackmaker said:

Terunofuji can now relax a bit, only the ozeki left to face.

I can see the judging department nixing one of his ozeki matches for Takanosho

[Gurowake 4,100]

37 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

I can see the judging department nixing one of his ozeki matches for Takanosho

Did you mean for Takanosho to face Terunofuji?  He already did day 8.  If they break matchup in the top 4, it would mainly be for Ura, who has faced a very small number of rikishi ranked above him and in contention.  There's plenty of possible opponents for him that make sense, so that makes it less likely they'll break up the planned matches.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Gurowake

[Kaninoyama 1,818]

12 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

We’ve seen feet go that direction a thousand times and it never be a point of contention. The whole ‘top of the foot’ thing rarely seems to actually matter. It smacks of looking for a reason to give Shodai a second chance.

I'm just the messenger. 

[bettega 431]

In Juryo: Kaisei is safe but  Shohozan must win the his last 3 bouts to stay away from Makushita

[Reonito 1,519]

32 minutes ago, bettega said:

In Juryo: Kaisei is safe but  Shohozan must win the his last 3 bouts to stay away from Makushita

And even with a 6-9 at J12 he might not be safe depending on how the rest of the exchange picture develops.

[Chartorenji 243]

and with that, we get a four man playoff in Jonokuchi. Kazekeno, Yamato, Arise, and Tanji. 

[just_some_guy 284]

Getting real hard to stay out of conspiracy-theory-land now that Shodai has been spotted two wins by the shimpan.

[Morty 1,505]

13 hours ago, Fukuyamada said:

Shodai hasn't been matched up with Terunofuji since September 2021.

Shodai hasn't had a proper Ozeki schedule for about a year. Most bashos he misses the Yokozuna and some of the other Ozeki. If he had to face a proper schedule I doubt he would have successfully hung onto his Ozeki status. I really like Shodai but it's pretty clear at this point that he isn't really an Ozeki level rikishi and he should just get the two MK in a row over with and put everyone (including himself) out of their misery

[Godango 1,014]

20 minutes ago, Morty said:

Shodai hasn't had a proper Ozeki schedule for about a year. Most bashos he misses the Yokozuna and some of the other Ozeki. If he had to face a proper schedule I doubt he would have successfully hung onto his Ozeki status. I really like Shodai but it's pretty clear at this point that he isn't really an Ozeki level rikishi and he should just get the two MK in a row over with and put everyone (including himself) out of their misery

+1. I really admired his rise to ozeki and he was doing fantastic sumo, but he just can't get his head right. 

I hope he DOES get his head right, because when he's on form he's bloody great and could go all the way. But it's painful feeling his disappointment.

[robnplunder 976]

53 minutes ago, Godango said:

+1. I really admired his rise to ozeki and he was doing fantastic sumo, but he just can't get his head right. 

I hope he DOES get his head right, because when he's on form he's bloody great and could go all the way. But it's painful feeling his disappointment.

Many (me included) have noted that Shodai's head-high Tachi-hai needs to be fixed.  Too many of his opponents have figured out how to beat a head-high Shodai.  But he still figured out how to get a Yusho and become an Ozeki without fixing it.  Go figure.

Edited May 20, 2022 by robnplunder

[robnplunder 976]

My prediction for today's key matches:

• Terunofuji beats Takakeisho
• Takanosho loses to WTK
• Ura loses to Abi
• Sadanoumi loses to Hoshoryu.

[dingo 1,294]

10 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

I guess he'll go on in makushita (most likely because he has no kabu). He said he has to do vigorous sumo also after a makekoshi (that makes a drop to makushita very likely). https://www.sanspo.com/article/20220519-XFIKU732XJIKNOEJIFIQL6LA7I/

Surprising he doesn't have a kabu, being an ex-komusubi and makuuchi mainstay. 

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

50 minutes ago, dingo said:

Surprising he doesn't have a kabu, being an ex-komusubi and makuuchi mainstay. 

He might be going for the extreme long stay, which could be the Araiso kabu

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Loving this version of Sadanoumi. He's never been this fearless. 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Wakatakakage blows the yusho race wide open (not that it was very closed with Takanosho only one ahead, but still ...)

Terunofuji surely the favourite now, which after his shaky start isn't something I expected, tbh. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Yarimotsu 591]

A funny thought came to me just before that bout began:

For Mitakeumi if he loses, that's the day he went kadoban as an ozeki. A black day to forget.

For Shodai, that's Friday.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Shodai finally gets the 8th loss his performance this basho deserves after Mitakeumi wins the 5-7 Ozeki head to head.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Takakeisho tries the mid-basho nekodamashi to confuse Terunofuji. Doesn't work. Three-way tie for the yusho on 10-3.

Teru gets a freebie tomorrow against Shodai. As good as a fusen.

 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

16 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Takakeisho tries the mid-basho nekodamashi to confuse Terunofuji. Doesn't work. Three-way tie for the yusho on 10-3.

Teru gets a freebie tomorrow against Shodai. As good as a fusen.

 

And then next thing you know, Shōdai turns up and really blows the yushō race wide open.

I wouldn't write off the 9-4s just yet, either.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 537]

Exciting 13th day. Things are starting to shape out.

The pack leaders, at 10-3, are now three: Terunofuji, Takanosho, and Sadanoumi. There is of course a second group at 9-4 (Daieisho, Kiribayama, Ura, and Aoiyama), but with just two days to go I would be most surprised if the yusho winner were NOT one of the three top guys.

Let's make a bit of predictions. As @Eikokurai said, Terunofuji vs. Shodai reeks of fusen knowing the latter (but never say never). Even considering Shodai would fight, he is much the "Teru type" wrestler. So Teru projected to 11-3 tomorrow. On the other hand, Kiribayama vs. Takanosho is hard to predict, and so is Sadanoumi vs. Daieisho. Actually, for the latter I'd say Daieisho, but today I was sure Hoshoryu would have won, and yet... About the other runner-ups, Ura vs. Wakatakakage is again unpredictable, I'd say Wakatakakage but Ura is Ura. Finally, Hoshoryu vs. Aoiyama. Curious to see if the Nephew is capable to bust another one.

This said, let's think about senshuraku. On day 15 Mitakeumi will be either 6-8 or 7-7, either way a poor contender for a Yokozuna on the yusho race. I believe he will be excused from facing Terunofuji (after so many times Shodai was, he somewhat has the right) and will be handled another high-profile contender, probably Ura (but also Wakamotoharu would do). Given things as they are, I'd predict a Terunofuji vs. Sadanoumi, which would make a good history since Sadanoumi could snatch either the yusho (if he wins tomorrow) or a playoff (if he loses). Takanosho, the other front-runner, will get the first strong contender available. There's again Ura or Wakamotoharu available, but also Aoiyama could be picked given his 9-4 score of today. Technically, Takanosho could even get Takayasu or Hokutofuji as per rank, but I doubt they will give him an almost freebie on senshuraku.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Arguably a 7-7 Mitakeumi will be a pretty good contender, since he has a very strong incentive not to be kadoban for the first time. 6-8, on the other hand...

[Morty 1,505]

Ichiyamamoto was only in the yusho race while he was playing in the double digit maegashira ranks. But facing an M8, an M4, and a K ejected him pretty quickly from any yusho race. The gulf in class was obvious.

[Koorifuu 1,020]

Shodai would've never been close to ozeki as early as one decade ago, and I don't mean he lacks the skill. Because he doesn't. And I'm already taking into consideration that long COVID's been destroying his stamina for any bout that requires continuous physical effort, which he often loses nowadays.

Ever since I saw that jungyo video from around four years ago, where a bunch of makuuchi guys captained by Tamawashi were bullying a clearly uncomfortable Shodai by circling him with slaps and pinches to the nipples, I've always had the impression that his eventual ascent to ozeki was only made possible by that relative clampdown on hazing and mistreatment of "inferiors" that's happened in the last few years. He just doesn't have that primal, alpha mentality of domination over other males like most sumo greats had - and others would've destroyed him mentally and physically before he could amount to anything. In fact, I haven't got any concrete data to substantiate this claim, but I'm pretty sure his sudden rise from maegashira also-ran to ozeki was precisely just after that change.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Koorifuu

[Seiyashi 4,108]

33 minutes ago, Morty said:

Ichiyamamoto was only in the yusho race while he was playing in the double digit maegashira ranks. But facing an M8, an M4, and a K ejected him pretty quickly from any yusho race. The gulf in class was obvious.

That's a (rare?) example of record matching doing its work, because the upper ranks actually had the skill to beat him. Some bashō ago, it wasn't a given that catapulting a well-performing lower maegashira into the joi for a couple of bouts would result in a chastised lower ranker.

[RabidJohn 1,855]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

This said, let's think about senshuraku. On day 15 Mitakeumi will be either 6-8 or 7-7, either way a poor contender for a Yokozuna on the yusho race. I believe he will be excused from facing Terunofuji ...

There I was thinking Mitakeumi would have a very hard time avoiding kadoban, but considering the recent trend for senshuraku match-ups to be more relevant to the yusho race than banzuke position you're probably right. If he can beat Takakeisho tomorrow, he could well be given a lower-ranked contender on Sunday to have a better shout at a KK. Still, not a brilliant outing for him this time.

I thought Takakeisho looked as good as I've seen him recently. I loved the nekodamashi and the fact that he kept trying throughout what was quite a lengthy bout for him.

I've got to fancy Terunofuji for the yusho now.