Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2022

[Asashosakari 19,319]

(Haru results going up shortly, but I figure this has a bit more urgency.)

The lineup for Natsu 2022, without Terunofuji for the first time in three years:

 1. Mitakeumi       8  [score?]
 2. Abi             7  [score?]
 3. Kamito          6
 4. Ryuo            6
 5. Kitanowaka      5
 6. Kiryuko         5*
 7. Nobehara        5*
 8. Miyagi          5*
 9. Wakatakakage    4  [score?]
10. Wakamotoharu    4
11. Kotoshoho       4
12. Nishikigi       4
13. Shimazuumi      4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (8 'veterans' and Covid-extended newcomer Mukainakano) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Mitakeumi.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Mitakeumi W-L
 2. Abi W-L
 3. Kamito KKMK
 4. Ryuo KKMK
 5. Kitanowaka KKMK
 6. Kiryuko KKMK
 7. Nobehara KKMK
 8. Miyagi KKMK
 9. Wakatakakage W-L
10. Wakamotoharu KKMK
11. Kotoshoho KKMK
12. Nishikigi KKMK
13. Shimazuumi KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[Hakuryuho 335]

 1. Mitakeumi 11-4
 2. Abi 8-7
 3. Kamito KK
 4. Ryuo MK
 5. Kitanowaka KK
 6. Kiryuko MK
 7. Nobehara KK
 8. Miyagi KK
 9. Wakatakakage 10-5
10. Wakamotoharu KK
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Nishikigi MK
13. Shimazuumi MK

TB 14

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Mitakeumi            11-4
 2. Abi                          8-7
 3. Kamito                            KK
 4. Ryuo                                KK
 5. Kitanowaka                    KK
 6. Kiryuko                            KK
 7. Nobehara                        KK
 8. Miyagi                              KK
 9. Wakatakakage    9-6
10. Wakamotoharu                         MK
11. Kotoshoho                                 MK
12. Nishikigi                                     MK
13. Shimazuumi                              MK

TB 12

[Yarimotsu 578]

 1. Mitakeumi 12-3
 2. Abi 9-6
 3. Kamito MK
 4. Ryuo MK
 5. Kitanowaka KK
 6. Kiryuko KK
 7. Nobehara MK
 8. Miyagi KK
 9. Wakatakakage 10-5
10. Wakamotoharu KK
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Nishikigi MK
13. Shimazuumi MK

TB 13

[Chartorenji 235]

1. Mitakeumi 10-5

2. Abi 7-8 

3. Kamito MK

4. Roga Mk

5. Kitanowaka KK

6. Kiryuko KK

7. Nobehara KK

8. Miyagi KK

9. Wakatakakage 9-6 

10. Wakamotoharu MK

11. Kotoshoho KK

12 Nishikigi KK

13. Shimazuumi KK

 

 

TB: 13

Edited May 7, 2022 by Chartorenji

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

1. Mitakeumi 11-4
 2. Abi 9-6
 3. Kamito KK
 4. Ryuo KK
 5. Kitanowaka MK
 6. Kiryuko MK
 7. Nobehara KK
 8. Miyagi KK
 9. Wakatakakage 10-5
10. Wakamotoharu MK
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Nishikigi KK
13. Shimazuumi MK

TB 12

[Asashosakari 19,319]

@Chartorenji Please remember to include a tie-breaker choice.

[Sakura 1,489]

1. Mitakeumi 11-4
 2. Abi 8-7
 3. Kamito KK
 4. Ryuo MK
 5. Kitanowaka KK
 6. Kiryuko KK
 7. Nobehara KK
 8. Miyagi KK
 9. Wakatakakage 9-6
10. Wakamotoharu MK
11. Kotoshoho KK
12. Nishikigi KK
13. Shimazuumi MK

TB 15

[Athenayama 1,041]

1. Mitakeumi         11-4
 2. Abi                      7-8
 3. Kamito                MK
 4. Ryuo                    KK
 5. Kitanowaka        KK
 6. Kiryuko                KK
 7. Nobehara            KK
 8. Miyagi                  KK
 9. Wakatakakage   9-6
10. Wakamotoharu MK
11. Kotoshoho        MK
12. Nishikigi            MK
13. Shimazuumi     MK

TB 11

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Mitakeumi         12
 2. Abi                        9
 3. Kamito                MK
 4. Ryuo                    MK
 5. Kitanowaka        KK
 6. Kiryuko                KK
 7. Nobehara            KK
 8. Miyagi                  KK
 9. Wakatakakage   11
10. Wakamotoharu KK
11. Kotoshoho        KK
12. Nishikigi            KK
13. Shimazuumi     MK

TB = 13

 

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1.Mitakeumi   11

2.Abi                 9

3.Kaito            MK

4.Ryuo             KK

5.Kitanowaka KK

6.Kiryuko         MK

7.Nobehara     MK

8.Miyagi          KK

9.Waktakakage 9

10.WakamotoharuKK

11.Kotoshoho  KK

12.Nishikigi      MK

13.Shimazuumi MK

TB: 13

[Asashosakari 19,319]

 11 Mitakeumi
 - Abi
- Kamito
- Ryuo
+ Kitanowaka
+ Kiryuko
+ Nobehara
+ Miyagi
9 Wakatakakage
- Wakamotoharu
+ Kotoshoho
+ Nishikigi
+ Shimazuumi

TB 11

[Rocks 1,809]

 1. Mitakeumi       10-5
 2. Abi             8-7
 3. Kamito          MK
 4. Ryuo            KK
 5. Kitanowaka      KK
 6. Kiryuko         KK
 7. Nobehara        KK
 8. Miyagi          KK
 9. Wakatakakage   MK
10. Wakamotoharu    MK
11. Kotoshoho       KK
12. Nishikigi       MK
13. Shimazuumi      MK

TB: 11

[ryafuji 814]

Could I get a kosho? Have been offline a couple of days. 

[Jejima 1,384]

Missed it too. Kosho for me please.

[Asashosakari 19,319]

The Natsu results, with which we welcome back former yokozuna Mmikasazuma to the game.
 

Player	Mita		Abi		Kamito	Ryuo	Kita	Kiryu	Nobe	Miyagi	W'kage		W'haru	Koto	Nishiki	Shima	TB	Cons
Hakuryuho	-	11-4	-	8-7	+	-	+	-	+	+	+	10-5	+	+	-	-	14	1.56
chishafuwaku	-	11-4	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	-	-	-	12	1.47
Yarimotsu	+	12-3	+	9-6	-	-	+	+	-	+	+	10-5	+	+	-	-	13	1.80
Chartorenji	-	10-5	-	MK	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	+	+	+	13	1.37
WAKATAKE	-	11-4	+	9-6	+	+	-	-	+	+	+	10-5	-	+	+	-	12	1.85
Sakura	-	11-4	-	8-7	+	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	+	+	-	15	1.23
Athenayama	-	11-4	-	MK	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	-	-	-	11	1.37
Profomisakari	+	12-3	+	9-6	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	11-4	+	+	+	-	13	1.64
Mmikasazuma	-	11-4	+	9-6	-	+	+	-	-	+	-	9-6	+	+	-	-	13	1.70
Asashosakari	-	11-4	-	MK	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	9-6	-	+	+	+	11	1.37
Rocks	-	10-5	-	8-7	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	MK	-	+	-	-	11	1.12
	2:9		4:7		4:7	5:6	10:1	8:3	9:2	11:0	4:7		4:7	9:2	5:6	2:9
Results	-		-		+	+	-	+	+	-	- (KK)		+	-	+	-

Tricky predictions about Mitakeumi's likely result with most entrants going for 11-4. There were two predictions above and two below, so it was a push for his target record. As usual I used the parity of the sum total of the tie-breaker predictions; 138 being even, 12 wins was chosen as the target over the alternative possibility of 11. Abi's target narrowly escaped the same procedure with four people choosing better than 8 wins and three others worse, so Abi was made to aim for 9 wins. The other sekiwake Wakatakakage proved easier to set on course, going for 10 wins as almost nobody projected fewer than 9 for him.

Chartorenji and Asashosakari produced identical ballots, separated only by their tie-breaker picks.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 7

Ozeki Mitakeumi took a fast path to four losses, so he lost sight of his 12-3 LKS goal in short order.

The first off-ballot rikishi also decided his fate before the middle Sunday, unfortunately in negative fashion as well: no fifth straight kachikoshi for Asahabataki.
 

Day 7: 1/13 Decisions, TB 0-21
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	1	11
1	Athenayama	1	11
1	Rocks	1	11
4	chishafuwaku	1	12
4	WAKATAKE	1	12
6	Chartorenji	1	13
6	Mmikasazuma	1	13
8	Hakuryuho	1	14
9	Sakura	1	15
10	Profomisakari	0	13
10	Yarimotsu	0	13

 

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 8

Another 0-4 start outside the ballot, on this day for Narutaki.

Day 9

Kitanowaka had been forced to go kyujo on Day 6 with 5 losses to date, so his non-inclusion in the Day 9 torikumi assured his makekoshi for the tournament.

On the flipside, the first pair of rikishi decided their promotion onto the ballot for Nagoya basho. Chiyosakae and Mukainakano ran their records to 4-1 and thus achieved KK #5.

It didn't take long to get a sole leader this basho:
 

Day 9: 2/13 Decisions, TB 2-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	WAKATAKE	2	12
2	Asashosakari	1	11
2	Athenayama	1	11
2	Rocks	1	11
5	chishafuwaku	1	12
6	Chartorenji	1	13
6	Mmikasazuma	1	13
8	Hakuryuho	1	14
9	Sakura	1	15
10	Profomisakari	0	13
10	Yarimotsu	0	13

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 10

And finally somebody managed to stay on the ballot. Rookies Kiryuko and Nobehara are not done KK'ing yet, and complete a year of upwardly mobile records.

Another rikishi was once on the ballot as a newcomer as well, but is now five years removed from that - 27-year-old Kainoshima earns his second go at LKS participation courtesy of a fifth straight KK, this one having come to him easier than the other four (which were all last-bout-win 4-3's).

Back to over half the field being in the lead, obviously with no perfect scores anymore.
 

Day 10: 4/13 Decisions, TB 5-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	3	12
1	WAKATAKE	3	12
3	Asashosakari	3	11
3	Athenayama	3	11
3	Chartorenji	3	13
3	Rocks	3	11
7	Sakura	3	15
8	Profomisakari	2	13
9	Hakuryuho	2	14
10	Mmikasazuma	1	13
10	Yarimotsu	1	13

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 11

Nothing to report on or off the ballot.

Day 12

Another missed target in sanyaku, this time for Wakatakakage after his sixth defeat.

The off-ballot squad nearly completed its LKS-relevant action already, with youngster Suzuki earning a return trip to LKS - he had started his career with 9 straight KK three years ago - while ex-juryo veteran Chiyonoumi fell short of kachikoshi to miss a likely return to the paid ranks, and youngish Hokutoryu went makekoshi sidelined by injury. Only Honma's fate remained undecided at 3-3.
 

Day 12: 5/13 Decisions, TB 6-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	4	11
1	Athenayama	4	11
1	chishafuwaku	4	12
1	Rocks	4	11
5	Chartorenji	4	13
6	Sakura	4	15
7	WAKATAKE	3	12
8	Mmikasazuma	2	13
8	Profomisakari	2	13
10	Hakuryuho	2	14
11	Yarimotsu	1	13

 

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 13

Entering the basho home stretch with three new results. Wakamotoharu continues his ascent from upper juryo to upper makuuchi regular, freshly renamed mostly-sandanme veteran Ryuo (Tatsukaze until last basho) posts his 7th straight kachikoshi, and collegiate rookie Miyagi reaches the end of his debut KK streak. All of these results defied the majority predictions, Miyagi's even left egg on our faces unanimously.

Honma also finished things up, but with his last minute MK he won't be joining the Nagoya ballot.
 

Day 13: 8/13 Decisions, TB 8-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Athenayama	5	11
1	chishafuwaku	5	12
1	Rocks	5	11
4	Asashosakari	4	11
4	WAKATAKE	4	12
6	Chartorenji	4	13
6	Mmikasazuma	4	13
8	Sakura	4	15
9	Profomisakari	3	13
10	Hakuryuho	3	14
11	Yarimotsu	2	13

Fully eight players - everybody on 4+ points - still had a theoretical chance to win the yusho at this point, albeit with vastly different likelihoods. (Asashosakari even needed an assist by the torikumi committee, in that victory was only possible if Wakatakakage and Abi would not face each other on senshuraku...)

Edited June 1, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 14

And just like that, eight yusho hopefuls turned into one. Kamito clinched his 7th straight winning record up in the makushita promotion zone, which served to eliminate Asashosakari and Athenayama from the race. Kotoshoho then fell to a very much unexpected MK in the maegashira ranks, after which Chartorenji, Mmikasazuma, Rocks and Sakura were contenders no more. And finally sekiwake Abi dropped to 7-7 and away from his 9-win target, cutting off the path for WAKATAKE. The last man standing, regardless of the final two outcomes for Nishikigi and Shimazuumi: chishafuwaku! More on his victory in the senshuraku round-up.

While Abi was left with his KK/MK decision still open, the penultimate day did see things conclude for the other two sanyaku-rankers: Seven days after missing his target, ozeki Mitakeumi found himself outright makekoshi and at the end of his 8-KK streak. Sekiwake Wakatakakage, however, grabbed his 8th win to remain on the LKS ballot for the next tournament.
 

Day 14: 11/13 Decisions, TB 10-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	8	12
2	Athenayama	7	11
3	Rocks	6	11
4	Sakura	6	15
5	Asashosakari	5	11
5	WAKATAKE	5	12
7	Chartorenji	5	13
8	Hakuryuho	5	14
9	Mmikasazuma	4	13
10	Profomisakari	3	13
11	Yarimotsu	2	13

Those closest to chishafuwaku no longer had enough different picks to close the gap again: Athenayama and Rocks shared the leader's selections altogether, while Sakura had just one slot to score with.

 

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 15

Reaching the end of LKS Natsu, we lost another two rikishi from the ballot: Abi was defeated in the sekiwake duel to finish 7-8, and Shimazuumi lost against yusho contender Daiamami in juryo. On the bright side we retained Nishikigi who collected his last-minute KK against Chiyotairyu.

The final standings:
 

Day 15: 13/13 Decisions, TB 11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	9	12
2	Athenayama	8	11
3	Sakura	8	15
4	Rocks	7	11
5	WAKATAKE	7	12
6	Asashosakari	6	11
7	Chartorenji	6	13
7	Hakuryuho	6	14
9	Mmikasazuma	5	13
9	Profomisakari	5	13
11	Yarimotsu	3	13

I had to look twice, because these results seemed oddly familiar. In fact the top three places are taken by the same players as in Haru basho, back then with Athenayama and Sakura sharing the runner-up spot. You may be seeing what I'm getting at - yes, chishafuwaku has won back-to-back tournaments, the first player to do so since Mmikasazuma back in Hatsu and Haru 2018. It is his fourth title overall.

Athenayama takes the sole jun-yusho spot of the tournament, breaking away from Sakura courtesy of the correct tie-breaker choice. Two other players also benefit from having picked the right number of on- and off-ballot kachikoshi.

The new ballot for Nagoya 2022:

    Mitakeumi       8
    Abi             7
 1. Kamito          7
 2. Ryuo            7
    Kitanowaka      5
 3. Nobehara        6*
 4. Kiryuko         6*
    Miyagi          5*
 5. Wakatakakage    5
 6. Wakamotoharu    5
    Kotoshoho       4
 7. Nishikigi       5
    Shimazuumi      4
 8. Chiyosakae      5
 9. Kainoshima      5
10. Suzuki          5
11. Mukainakano     5*
---
12. Ryuden          4
13. Tochimaru       4

Only Wakatakakage remains in the game as a sanyaku-ranked rikishi now, and the next ballot will be headed by Kamito, the first time since Kyushu 2019 that the top spot isn't held down by a sekitori. On the upside, that's an interesting pair of 4-KK sekitori additions with Ryuden still on the way back to his old mid-maegashira stomping grounds (or is he?), and Natsu juryo newcomer Tochimaru trying to prove that his debut KK wasn't a fluke.

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

chishafuwaku 10 (9+Top)
Athenayama 9 (8+TB)
Sakura 8
Rocks 8 (7+TB)
WAKATAKE 7
Asashosakari 7 (6+TB)
Chartorenji 6
Hakuryuho 6
Mmikasazuma 5
Profomisakari 5
Yarimotsu 3

Total: 74 / 11 = 6.73 ---> +1 win

An obvious split to the field this time around.

The new banzuke for Nagoya 2022:

Asashosakari (Ye 8-7)      Y   chishafuwaku (Oe 11-4 Y)
Tsuchinoninjin (Ow kosho)  O   Athenayama (Se 10-5 J)
Sakura (Sw 9-6)            S   Rocks (Kw 9-6)
ryafuji (Ke kosho)         K   WAKATAKE (M3e 8-7)
Chartorenji (M1e 7-8)      M1  Holleshoryu (M1w kosho)
Tameiki (M2e kosho)        M2  Hakuryuho (M2w 7-8)
Profomisakari (M3w 6-9)    M3  Mmikasazuma (NR 6-9)
Yarimotsu (M4e 4-11)       M4  Jejima (M4w kosho)

Two yusho on the trot? As ozeki? Yeah, that just happened. Congratulations to chishafuwaku on joining the LKS pantheon as the game's fourth yokozuna in its 13-year history, and in fact just the second one after Jejima to get promoted the classical way. (Asashosakari and Mmikasazuma did it with promotion-worthy scores across three tournaments.) Best of luck in continuing to represent yourself well as one of the game's best players!

This concludes chishafuwaku's time as ozeki after 21 tournaments at the rank, comprising a short four-tournament run back in 2017 and a much longer one since May 2019 which was briefly interrupted for a one-basho demotion with immediate bounceback in September last year.

Tsuchinoninjin was absent from his second tournament at the ozeki rank after a successful debut back in March, and it's hoped we see him back in action next time. The spot alongside him at the second-highest rank has been (re)taken by a familiar face - since his demotion from ozeki after the last Kyushu tournament, Athenayama has quickly proven himself worthy of another stint, with a shared 3rd-4th place result in January, shared 2nd-3rd in March, and now a solo 2nd place. Congrats!