Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

[Chartorenji 243]

Think it's about that time. Will attempt this, but if a regular on this topic sees this correct me if I'm wrong on anything. 

 

Sanyaku Status 

 

 

(2) Mitakeumi O1 Shodai (x) 

                                 O2 Takakeisho (2)

(o) Wakatakakage  S Abi (o)                  

(1) Hoshoryu   K Daieisho (o)

         (x) Takayasu    M1 Ichinojo (COVID)

        (~) Kiribayama M2 Kotonowaka (2)

                                 M3 Tamawashi (x)

                                M4 Takanosho (1)

(2) Ura M6        

 

Makuuchi-Juryo 

 

(1) Takarafuji M7                        

-

                    (o) Oho M14 Yutakayama (o)    

(2) Azumaryu M15                       

        (x) Ishiura M16 Midorifuji (o) 

(x) Kotokuzan M17 Kagayaki (x)

-

(1) Chiyomaru J1 Hidenoumi (o)

                          J2 Tsurugisho (o)

                     J3 Ryuden (1) 

                          J4 Tohakuryu (2) 

                       J5 Daishoho (x)

                                               J6 Nishikifuji (2)                       

 

Juryo-Makushita

(1) Kitanowaka J5                            

-

(o) Shimazuumi J10 Bushozan (o)     

                            J11 Daishomaru (2)

  (x) Shohozan J12                             

(2) Chiyoarashi J13 Tochimaru (o)   

   (2) Takakento J14 Churanoumi (o) 

-

(x) Chiyonoumi Ms1 Nishikawa (o) 

        (~) Hokuseiho Ms2 Tsushimanada (x)

  (~) Chiyosakae Ms3 Hakuyozan (x) 

            (x) Roga Ms4 Kinbozan (~)   

(x) Kotoyusho Ms5 Kamito (x)    

-

(o) Oshoma Ms8                    

Edited May 20, 2022 by Chartorenji

[Seiyashi 4,108]

I'd like to think, with the way this basho is going, it's just too early to start this topic.

[lackmaker 438]

If Terunofuji wins the next two he could be a hot favourite by then.

[Reonito 1,522]

Waka and Abi would stay in san'yaku with 2 more wins. I think Yutakayama needs 2 wins for safety, and Takarafuji and Azumaryu would be on the bubble with 1 (though juryo contenders are not exactly beating down the door). Enho is definitely safe. Roga is mathematically alive, as are the two Ms5's, but a lot would have to happen for any of them to go up with a 4-3. The makushita promotion picture will get cleaned up quite a bit tomorrow.

[Chartorenji 243]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd like to think, with the way this basho is going, it's just too early to start this topic.

I think it's about time. 2/3rds of the way through and we have some clear things that should happen.

 

Quote

Waka and Abi would stay in san'yaku with 2 more wins. I think Yutakayama needs 2 wins for safety, and Takarafuji and Azumaryu would be on the bubble with 1 (though juryo contenders are not exactly beating down the door). Enho is definitely safe. Roga is mathematically alive, as are the two Ms5's, but a lot would have to happen for any of them to go up with a 4-3. The makushita promotion picture will get cleaned up quite a bit tomorrow.

Updated. Planning on my main post being an active updated list of sorts. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Chartorenji

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Squeaky bum time for lower jūryō, as upper makushita starts knocking on the door. Hokuseihō and Chiyosakae have just secured their KKs, Kinbōzan is 5-1 from one rank below, and Ōshoma might still be undeniable with a 6-0 and counting. And both Ms1s are 3-3 and might yet be contenders. So far only Shōhōzan and Daishōmaru are likely to go down, but a number of other rikishi better start winning fast (Chiyoarashi, Bushōzan, Kaisei).

Edited May 18, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Chartorenji 243]

Everything should be updated in the first post.

[Koorifuu 1,020]

11 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Squeaky bum time for lower jūryō, as upper makushita starts knocking on the door. Hokuseihō and Chiyosakae have just secured their KKs, Kinbōzan is 5-1 from one rank below, and Ōshoma might still be undeniable with a 6-0 and counting. And both Ms1s are 3-3 and might yet be contenders. So far only Shōhōzan and Daishōmaru are likely to go down, but a number of other rikishi better start winning fast (Chiyoarashi, Bushōzan, Kaisei).

I'm afraid I'll have to add the unfortunate Kitanowaka to that list at the end. In the last 50 years, no-one has won a single bout from J5 and remained in the salaried ranks. Sure the banzuke committee has been extra lenient on juryo demotions lately, but... now that he's rushing back, he better hope he wins one of his remaining bouts.

EDIT: Just checked and no J5 has had two wins since 1965 so there's really no possible comparison with recent examples. Gotta go by the numbers.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Koorifuu

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

According to the status list Kitanowaka is coming back

[Chartorenji 243]

Updated post Day 12. The biggest thing is there's a good chance that no Sanyaku switches happen. Unless Waka or Abi lose out, which seems unlikely, Hoshoryu and Daieisho would switch with them. 

 

Makushita and Juryo are also in a weird spot. Chiyonoumi won't move up, which makes room for Nishikawa and Oshoma, who both could take the first two spots up. Then, Kinbozan, Chiyosakae, and Kinbozan are in a weird rock paper scissors thing for who goes up 3rd, 4th, or 5th, which might not even open up. Of course, no spots are even open right now. Shohozan and Daishomaru are probably going down, with Chiyoarashi as a strong maybe. If Kitanowaka can't get a win, and Takakento can't get 2 wins, they would also go down, so we could legit have the 5 spots (also Churnoumi still needs one more win.) 

[Reonito 1,522]

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

Updated post Day 12. The biggest thing is there's a good chance that no Sanyaku switches happen. Unless Waka or Abi lose out, which seems unlikely, Hoshoryu and Daieisho would switch with them.

Takanosho could force open an extra slot, though there are no sufficiently recent precedents to know what it would take.

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

Makushita and Juryo are also in a weird spot. Chiyonoumi won't move up, which makes room for Nishikawa and Oshoma, who both could take the first two spots up. Then, Kinbozan, Chiyosakae, and Kinbozan are in a weird rock paper scissors thing for who goes up 3rd, 4th, or 5th, which might not even open up. Of course, no spots are even open right now. Shohozan and Daishomaru are probably going down, with Chiyoarashi as a strong maybe. If Kitanowaka can't get a win, and Takakento can't get 2 wins, they would also go down, so we could legit have the 5 spots (also Churnoumi still needs one more win.) 

Oshoma's case with a win should be strong enough to push down Shohozan, if that were the only option. The promotion order for any additional open slots ought to be Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. If somehow more slots opened, Roga might be in contention with a win; the demotion cases are likely to be borderline enough that the Ms5's are almost certainly out of luck.

[Chartorenji 243]

Hokuseiho over Nishikawa doesn't make total sense to me, but you know more then me. Would think if Hokuseiho was 6-1 then yeah but he would be equal to Nishikawa in promotion with  a 5-2 no? 

[Yamanashi 3,904]

34 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Takanosho could force open an extra slot, though there are no sufficiently recent precedents to know what it would take.

Oshoma's case with a win should be strong enough to push down Shohozan, if that were the only option. The promotion order for any additional open slots ought to be Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. If somehow more slots opened, Roga might be in contention with a win; the demotion cases are likely to be borderline enough that the Ms5's are almost certainly out of luck.

According to the db, only seven rikishi have gone 7-0 at Ms8, none since 1995 (!). The Ms8w's went to ~J12, the Ms8e's to ~J8; no one has ever been denied Juryo [though the current committee may have an out: "Really?  Huh, our db doesn't go back before 2000."]

Now, 6-1 at Ms8 goes to Ms1-2 since 1992.

Also, Kitaharima at 7-0 would only be the second occurrence: first was none other than Kirinji (future Kitajin) in 1973, who landed at Ms2.  I don't think they'll be that generous this time.

[Reonito 1,522]

16 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Hokuseiho over Nishikawa doesn't make total sense to me, but you know more then me. Would think if Hokuseiho was 6-1 then yeah but he would be equal to Nishikawa in promotion with  a 5-2 no? 

I think an extra win counts for more than half a rank. Here's a reasonable precedent, though it's from a while ago.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

18 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

According to the db, only seven rikishi have gone 7-0 at Ms8, none since 1995 (!). The Ms8w's went to ~J12, the Ms8e's to ~J8; no one has ever been denied Juryo [though the current committee may have an out: "Really?  Huh, our db doesn't go back before 2000."]

This isn't a GTB "rule" but the almost absolute rule that a 7-0 from Ms15 or higher goes to jūryō, stat. There's only one violation of it that we know of, which was I think a MsTD toriteki winning a 7-0 in something like his second basho and maybe the banzuke committee saying "yeah we'll wait a bit". Turned out to be prophetic, because he never got to jūryō at the end of his career, and promoting him early would have been a Miyabiyama situation.

[Gurowake 4,107]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

This isn't a GTB "rule" but the almost absolute rule that a 7-0 from Ms15 or higher goes to jūryō, stat. There's only one violation of it that we know of, which was I think a MsTD toriteki winning a 7-0 in something like his second basho and maybe the banzuke committee saying "yeah we'll wait a bit". Turned out to be prophetic, because he never got to jūryō at the end of his career, and promoting him early would have been a Miyabiyama situation.

That was entirely banzuke luck.  I'm pretty sure they would promote someone with a 7-0 at Ms15TD, but no one else has done it.  In the one case it happened, there were only 2 open slots and both Ms1s had a KK.  If it was auto-promote they'd have taken the 7-0 over the 4-3 Ms1w, but it's not.  It just means that they're most likely going to get a spot unless the committee thinks other people have a better claim.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200605#Ms

[Chartorenji 243]

Edited once more. We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up. 

[Reonito 1,522]

So we probably have two open slots in juryo already: Shohozan is definitely going down, and Chiyoarashi will probably not be under-demoted given Nishikawa's promotion case. Three others are in danger: Daishomaru, Kitanowaka, and Takakento. So that's at most 5 promotion slots. Oshoma should take the first. Then it's roughly as above: Hokuseiho 5-2, Nishikawa 4-3, then either Chiyosakae 5-2 or Kinbozan 6-1, then Hokuseiho 4-3, C 4-3 or K 5-2. All of them would be ahead of a 4-3 Roga and Ms5's, so they are now mathematically out and will need a KK just to stay in the promotion zone in July.

Looks like Hokuseiho gets his shot to clinch promotion tomorrow against Daishomaru. I assume Kinbozan and Chiyosakae will get their cracks at endangered juryo opponents on senshuraku.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,522]

55 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Edited once more. We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up. 

Hidenoumi could yet end up behind Chiyomaru and Ryuden (at least) in the promotion queue.

[Reonito 1,522]

Ozeki need updating. I think at this point only Kiribayama and Takanosho have a shot at san'yaku. Going to be crowded at M1 if they fully protect Ichinojo's rank!

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

1 hour ago, Chartorenji said:

We got more on Makuuchi-Juryo it seems, with 3 going down confirmed and 2 confirmed up.

Not quite confirmed. Kagayaki still needs to lose once more.

[Reonito 1,522]

If Hokuseiho wins tomorrow, he pushes down Daishomaru, so I guess Nishikawa goes up either way, either as second in line or as third but with 3 slots open.

[Asashosakari 19,664]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Ozeki need updating. I think at this point only Kiribayama and Takanosho have a shot at san'yaku. Going to be crowded at M1 if they fully protect Ichinojo's rank!

Daieisho might be able to ease the crunch with 11 wins, assuming the sekiwake also play ball and finish KK.

[Reonito 1,522]

8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Daieisho might be able to ease the crunch with 11 wins, assuming the sekiwake also play ball and finish KK.

Good point!

[Chartorenji 243]

If Abi loses out, does a 11-4 Daieisho leap frog a 8-7 or 9-6 Hoshoryu? Or is it some weird 3 Sekiwake thing