Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Natsu 2022

[Sumo Spiffy 580]

1 hour ago, maglor said:

You just missed it, it happened in 1998.

This is the way I search: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=K1e, K1w&form1_wins=8, 10&offset=250 though it does require a bit of manual searching through.

That's super helpful, thanks. I thought I stumbled across another method using bout query, but it doesn't work the way I thought. :(

[Sumo Spiffy 580]

25 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The two solutions to this are to open a komusubi slot anyway for Takanoshō, or to demote Ichinojō to M3

I thought that if he's out due to COVID, he has to be kept at the same rank. Is he able to be moved if too many competitors deserve his rank?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I thought that if he's out due to COVID, he has to be kept at the same rank. Is he able to be moved if too many competitors deserve his rank?

The precedents so far have locked COVID kyujō rikishi at their rank, but in every case so far it's been doable without needing to cause any ripples elsewhere on the banzuke. In this particular case, though, yeah. On top of the explanation I already gave in the post you quoted, I can't be arsed to dig the interview up at this point in time, but when it was first broken that the Tamanoi rikishi would all have a rank freeze (being the first heya to be forced to sit out of a bashō) I distinctly remember Isegahama explicitly not promising that every COVID kyujō rikishi would benefit from a similar freeze although they would try to be fair.

If there is a time for Isegahama to benefit from having left himself that wiggle room, it's now, potentially at least.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

13 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I thought that if he's out due to COVID, he has to be kept at the same rank. Is he able to be moved if too many competitors deserve his rank?

The precedents so far have locked COVID kyujō rikishi at their rank, but in every case so far it's been doable without needing to cause any ripples elsewhere on the banzuke.

We did already have minor demotions in juryo last year.

[Katooshu 3,334]

5-2 Ms3e Chiyosakae hands J14e Takakento his MK...

3-12 J5e Kitanowaka sends Ms4w Kinbozan to 5-2

So looks like going down: Shohozan, Chiyorashi, Daishomaru, Takakento

Goning up: Oshoma, Nishikawa, Hokuseiho, Chiyosakae

Edited May 22, 2022 by Katooshu

[Chartorenji 243]

So this is interesting. 

 

The last time an 11-4 at J6 didn't go up was in 2010, where funnily enough, J6 Kaisei won the Yusho with that record. Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho should be good to go. Did Ryuden secure that spot or does Nishikifuji jump past him. 

 

 

Edit: To make things weirder the last 9-6 at J3w to not go up was in 2009, so a bit of a streak being broken either way. 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Chartorenji

[Seiyashi 4,108]

The most recent precedent is Mitoryū with a 12-3 yūshō at J6w. Didn't go up either.

[Hankegami 537]

Guess it's time to think about the Nagoya banzuke. My two cents:

• The upper Maegashira will be heavily under-promoted. The scores of Kotonowaka, Tamawashi, and Takanosho are just technically enough for a Komosubi promotion. Had the NSK a recent history of fair promotions, we would get six Komusubi next basho. But I reckon they prefer to have only two spots at a time. So I believe the three guys up there will have their fair promotion refused. The only strong bid is Kiribayama with his 10-5 at M2e, but I am persuaded they will just ignore his score and put him at M1e.
• Since Ryuden failed to rack up enough wins to be promoted by numbers, I think the NSK will be faithful to their "no easy promotions" policy and save Azumaryuu's sorry longbottom. I predict that Shohozan, Ishiura, and Kagayaki will go down for Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho. Ryuden at J1e and Nikishifuji at J1w given his yusho.

So, for the upper Maegashira I would say it will be something like M1e Kiribayama; M1w Ichinojo; M2e Kotonowaka; M2w Tamawashi; M3e Takanosho; M3w Takayasu. Heavily under-promoted, yet still promoted in a way.

[Tigerboy1966 1,474]

3 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho should be good to go

Not 100% certain about Hidenoumi. He might just slide over to j1e. That's rare but it did happen as recently as 2018 (Kyokutaisei).

[Seiyashi 4,108]

11 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Guess it's time to think about the Nagoya banzuke. My two cents:

• The upper Maegashira will be heavily under-promoted. The scores of Kotonowaka, Tamawashi, and Takanosho are just technically enough for a Komosubi promotion. Had the NSK a recent history of fair promotions, we would get six Komusubi next basho. But I reckon they prefer to have only two spots at a time. So I believe the three guys up there will have their fair promotion refused. The only strong bid is Kiribayama with his 10-5 at M2e, but I am persuaded they will just ignore his score and put him at M1e.
• Since Ryuden failed to rack up enough wins to be promoted by numbers, I think the NSK will be faithful to their "no easy promotions" policy and save Azumaryuu's sorry longbottom. I predict that Shohozan, Ishiura, and Kagayaki will go down for Chiyomaru, Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho. Ryuden at J1e and Nikishifuji at J1w given his yusho.

So, for the upper Maegashira I would say it will be something like M1e Kiribayama; M1w Ichinojo; M2e Kotonowaka; M2w Tamawashi; M3e Takanosho; M3w Takayasu. Heavily under-promoted, yet still promoted in a way.

Two things with the joi picture:

• I think it's likely Ichinojō will be demoted somehow to make the promotions less fair.
• There's one more pretty good reason for not promoting any of the well-performing joi - it creates a void in the middle of the banzuke. Only Ura and Wakamotoharu put up good results from anywhere outside the joi - the rest of the mid-maegashira are 8-7s, 9-6s, tops. If they create multiple komusubi, they are just creating a problem for themselves which they could have avoided by not creating more junior sanyaku. They are still stingier than they perhaps need to be - Daieishō's snub is evidence of that - but the pressure to create more junior sanyaku must come from beyond just two or so deserving records in the joi.

[Hankegami 537]

12 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Two things with the joi picture:

• I think it's likely Ichinojō will be demoted somehow to make the promotions less fair.
• There's one more pretty good reason for not promoting any of the well-performing joi - it creates a void in the middle of the banzuke. Only Ura and Wakamotoharu put up good results from anywhere outside the joi - the rest of the mid-maegashira are 8-7s, 9-6s, tops. If they create multiple komusubi, they are just creating a problem for themselves which they could have avoided by not creating more junior sanyaku. They are still stingier than they perhaps need to be - Daieishō's snub is evidence of that - but the pressure to create more junior sanyaku must come from beyond just two or so deserving records in the joi.

I wholeheartedly agree about the stingy promotion policies, but I am not sure they will demote Ichinojo. The COVID exemption policy is very recent and there are no precedents of demoting a rikishi on COVID leave I am aware of - since said policy was first enforced, I mean. Notice that in my reconstruction they will manage to rank everyone up.

Now, I am rather new to sumo (became a fan less than one year ago), but since I started watching bashos (since Aki 2021, I believe) I always had the impression that under-promotion is perceived as fair game among the banzuke committee. There are other ways to capitalise a good result aside from immediate promotion. Kiribayama could even build up an Ozeki bid with his 10-5. Same Takanosho. Whelp, even Kotonowaka and Tamawashi could find their 9-6 score a start. Admitting they will score up in Nagoya and Aki, of course. But the point is: good scores in the upper Maegashira ranks can always turn useful. In the meantime, you get the fairest available spot and wait for a san'yaku position to open up.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 minute ago, Hankegami said:

I wholeheartedly agree about the stingy promotion policies, but I am not sure they will demote Ichinojo. The COVID exemption policy is very recent and there are no precedents of demoting a rikishi on COVID leave I am aware of - since said policy was first enforced, I mean. Notice that in my reconstruction they will manage to rank everyone up.

Now, I am rather new to sumo (became a fan less than one year ago), but since I started watching bashos (since Aki 2021, I believe) I always had the impression that under-promotion is perceived as fair game among the banzuke committee. There are other ways to capitalise a good result aside from immediate promotion. Kiribayama could even build up an Ozeki bid with his 10-5. Same Takanosho. Whelp, even Kotonowaka and Tamawashi could find their 9-6 score a start. Admitting they will score up in Nagoya and Aki, of course. But the point is: good scores in the upper Maegashira ranks can always turn useful. In the meantime, you get the fairest available spot and wait for a san'yaku position to open up.

Asashosakari provided one example somewhere in this bashō's threads that COVID kyujō isn't absolute. They have already made a minor demotion in jūryō last year, so it's not an absolute freeze. Isegahama when interviewed on the Tamanoi rank freeze stopped short of saying that they would always preserve a rikishi's rank, so demoting Ichinojō is going to be the least of a few evils honestly, because he'll still be in the joi, he'll still be a maegashira, and in that sense M1 doesn't really make that much of a difference from M3 (except maybe being favoured to be promoted to komusubi with a very marginal KK).

I have the draft joi as something like Kiribayama, Kotonowaka, Takanoshō, and Tamawashi, with Ichinojō and Takayasu at M3. That fills out M4 with Ura and Wakamotoharu, and then M5 can be filled with Hokutofuji and Tobizaru or something like that. There'll still be some overpromotions from the 8-7s lower down the banzuke to fill this zone, but it won't be anywhere near as bad as if extra komusubi were created, and it's marginally "fairer" in giving everyone their due promotion rather than have them go up a rank for a pretty good result. And yes, all of the 4 prospective M1-2s are definitely in a good position to start an ozeki run if they can maintain their momentum, although Kiribayama is likely to fail at his first attempt, Tamawashi has been very yo-yoish so I don't think he'll make it, and maybe Kotonowaka (with some help) and Takanoshō will be able to capitalise.

[Hankegami 537]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I have the draft joi as something like Kiribayama, Kotonowaka, Takanoshō, and Tamawashi, with Ichinojō and Takayasu at M3. That fills out M4 with Ura and Wakamotoharu, and then M5 can be filled with Hokutofuji and Tobizaru or something like that. There'll still be some overpromotions from the 8-7s lower down the banzuke to fill this zone, but it won't be anywhere near as bad as if extra komusubi were created, and it's marginally "fairer" in giving everyone their due promotion rather than have them go up a rank for a pretty good result. And yes, all of the 4 prospective M1-2s are definitely in a good position to start an ozeki run if they can maintain their momentum, although Kiribayama is likely to fail at his first attempt, Tamawashi has been very yo-yoish so I don't think he'll make it, and maybe Kotonowaka (with some help) and Takanoshō will be able to capitalise.

Ichinojo aside, I have much the same draft. And also your same expectation about actual Ozeki runs 

[Katooshu 3,334]

Daiamami finished with the same record as Nishikifuji, at a higher rank. Surely he'd be ahead of him on the next banzuke?

[Hankegami 537]

10 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Daiamami finished with the same record as Nishikifuji, at a higher rank. Surely he'd be ahead of him on the next banzuke?

Just half a rank and he also lost the playoff, so IMHO no. Nikishifuji will likely get precedence as the yusho winner. My draft is J1e Ryuden, J1w Nikishifuji, J2e Daiamami, J2w Kagayaki.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Hankegami

[Katooshu 3,334]

Does that happen these days? Yusho overriding rank?

When was the last time someone was promoted over a rikishi who had the same wins at a higher rank?

Edited May 22, 2022 by Katooshu

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

10 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Does that happen these days? Yusho overriding rank?

Nope.

[Hankegami 537]

17 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Does that happen these days? Yusho overriding rank?

I hope that someone more versed than me in ranking criteria will provide a more thorough explanation, but as far as I saw winning a yusho always gives a minor boost to the final score. Moreover, the playoff was Daiamami vs. Nikishifuji (not to mention that Nikishifuji also defeated Daiamami in their regular bout on Day 1), so we can say that Nikishifuji earned his boost "on the field".

Just consider the Juryo banzuke for Nagoya. Score-wise (if I did my math correctly), Ryuden has right to a spot at J1, while both Daiamami and Nikishifuji have right at a J2 spot. However, Kagayaki with a 6-9 score at M17w is supposed to land exactly at J2w. This means there is an empty J1 slot. The banzuke committee has three possibilities: either go easy with Kagayaki (again) and give him J1w, or over-promote one of the J2 candidates. IMHO Nikishifuji has more rights since he defeated Daiamami twice and won the yusho in the process. But again, I could be wrong.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Hankegami

[Katooshu 3,334]

2 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I hope that someone more versed than me in ranking criteria will provide a more thorough explanation, but as far as I saw winning a yusho always gives a minor boost to the final score. Moreover, the playoff was Daiamami vs. Nikishifuji (not to mention that Nikishifuji also defeated Daiamami in their regular bout on Day 1), so we can say that Nikishifuji earned his boost "on the field".

Just consider the Juryo banzuke for Nagoya. Score-wise (if I did my math correctly), Ryuden has right to a spot at J1, while both Daiamami and Nikishifuji have right at a J2 spot. However, Kagayaki with a 6-9 score at M17w is supposed to land exactly at J2w. This means there is an empty J1 slot. The banzuke committee has three possibilities: either go easy to Kagayaki (again) and give him J1w, or over-promote one of the J2 candidates. IMHO Nikishifuji has more rights since he defeated Daiamami twice and won the yusho in the process. But again, I could be wrong.

Do you know of the most recent occasion in which a rikishi ended up above someone who had as many wins at a higher rank?

Edited May 22, 2022 by Katooshu

[Flohru 176]

6 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I hope that someone more versed than me in ranking criteria will provide a more thorough explanation, but as far as I saw winning a yusho always gives a minor boost to the final score. Moreover, the playoff was Daiamami vs. Nikishifuji (not to mention that Nikishifuji also defeated Daiamami in their regular bout on Day 1), so we can say that Nikishifuji earned his boost "on the field".

There is not much to explain: Winning a yusho might give you some kind of boost, but it will not make you leapfrog another rikishi with the same record ranked ahead of you, no matter how often you have won against him. 

11 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Just consider the Juryo banzuke for Nagoya. Score-wise (if I did my math correctly), Ryuden has right to a spot at J1, while both Daiamami and Nikishifuji have right at a J2 spot. 

Not sure how your math works, but score-wise both Daiamami and Nishikifuji should be ranked ahead of Ryuden . 

[Hankegami 537]

1 minute ago, Flohru said:

There is not much to explain: Winning a yusho might give you some kind of boost, but it will not make you leapfrog another rikishi with the same record ranked ahead of you, no matter how often you have won against him. 

Not sure how your math works, but score-wise both Daiamami and Nishikifuji should be ranked ahead of Ryuden . 

Thanks. About Ryuden, he's 9-6 at J3. The other two are 11-4 but at J6. They have two more wins but a gap of three full ranks. Like I said, I may have misinterpreted the math games with which the banzuke is played, but I understood that one goes up one full rank per KK win (in theory). This would make Ryuden still one rank ahead. But again, you are welcome to correct me.

[Gurowake 4,107]

I guess I failed to consider the possibility of both of the J6s winning and both of Ryuden and Hidenoumi losing, at least not explicitly.  In this case, which is what happened, the J6s should get into before the other two, though there is a higher chance that Hidenoumi gets in than Ryuden.  So Daiamami is likely in, Ryuden out, and we'll probably see Nishikifuji over Hidenoumi, but I wouldn't be as sure.

I think the precedent of doing the one-rank demotion for the Covid "kosho" in Juryo makes a lot of sense to apply to Ichinojo.  There's a very consistent banzuke available in terms of keeping those who competed in the correct relative rank while making sure all the KK rikishi are promoted while not moving Ichinojo too much.  Trying to keep Ichinojo where he is will cause someone to be out of relative order, though they showed with Onosho recently that maybe that doesn't matter too much.  Still, there's the precedent that they can move these rikishi forced to sit out just a little, and it seems obvious to apply here.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,107]

2 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Thanks. About Ryuden, he's 9-6 at J3. The other two are 11-4 but at J6. They have two more wins but a gap of three full ranks. Like I said, I may have misinterpreted the math games with which the banzuke is played, but I understood that one goes up one full rank per KK win (in theory). This would make Ryuden still one rank ahead. But again, you are welcome to correct me.

You take the number of their rank, subtract the number of wins, add the number of non-wins.  Lower numbers are better.  Ryuden and Hidenoumi are headed to J0, the J6s are headed to J[-1], so the J6s should be ahead if they go strictly by numbers.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

7 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There's a very consistent banzuke available in terms of keeping those who competed in the correct relative rank while making sure all the KK rikishi are promoted while not moving Ichinojo too much. 

While I agree with you fully otherwise, this particular comment brings to mind John's remark on that Twitter Spaces podcast pre-bashō that sumo aficionados come up with more consistent and logical banzukes than the NSK themselves.

[maglor 122]

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198909&heya=-1&shusshin=-1&snr=on

Here's a good example of how the Yusho doesn't matter. J8W with 10D went to J1w, J9E with 10Y went to J2w.

If you want a more recent example, Kototebekari beat Kotokenryu in a playoff for the Jonokuchi yusho last time, and KTB was actually 3 ranks higher in Jonokuchi, but they were ranked next to each other in Jonidan. (On an unrelated note, Kototebakari should be just a few ranks away from Asanoyama next basho) 

Edited May 22, 2022 by maglor