Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2022

[Asashosakari 19,319]

The lineup for the Nagoya 2022 edition of LKS:

 1. Kamito          7
 2. Ryuo            7
 3. Nobehara        6*
 4. Kiryuko         6*
 5. Wakatakakage    5  [score?]
 6. Wakamotoharu    5
 7. Nishikigi       5
 8. Chiyosakae      5
 9. Kainoshima      5
10. Suzuki          5
11. Mukainakano     5*
12. Ryuden          4
13. Tochimaru       4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 11 9 rikishi (9 7 'veterans', maezumo rookie Raiho and SdTd newcomer Kinbozan - please disregard kyujo Nakaishi and Kototaiga) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 24 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kamito.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Kamito KKMK
2. Ryuo KKMK
3. Nobehara KKMK
4. Kiryuko KKMK
5. Wakatakakage W-L
6. Wakamotoharu KKMK
7. Nishikigi KKMK
8. Chiyosakae KKMK
9. Kainoshima KKMK
10. Suzuki KKMK
11. Mukainakano KKMK
12. Ryuden KKMK
13. Tochimaru KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Yarimotsu 578]

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo MK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko MK
5. Wakatakakage 9-6
6. Wakamotoharu MK
7. Nishikigi KK
8. Chiyosakae KK
9. Kainoshima MK
10. Suzuki MK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru MK

TB 14

[Sakura 1,489]

On 08/07/2022 at 01:46, Asashosakari said:

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko MK
5. Wakatakakage 9-6
6. Wakamotoharu MK
7. Nishikigi MK
8. Chiyosakae MK
9. Kainoshima KK
10. Suzuki KK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru MK

TB 

-----

Good luck!

 

TB adjusted to 12

Edited July 9, 2022 by Sakura

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Kamito                        KK
2. Ryuo                            MK
3. Nobehara                   KK
4. Kiryuko                       MK
5. Wakatakakage          10
6. Wakamotoharu         KK
7. Nishikigi                     MK
8. Chiyosakae                KK
9. Kainoshima               MK
10. Suzuki                       MK
11. Mukainakano          KK
12. Ryuden                     KK
13. Tochimaru               MK

TB                                    12

[Hakuryuho 335]

1. Kamito MK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko MK
5. Wakatakakage 9-6
6. Wakamotoharu KK
7. Nishikigi MK
8. Chiyosakae KK
9. Kainoshima MK
10. Suzuki MK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru MK

TB 12

Edited July 11, 2022 by Hakuryuho

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. Kamito MK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko MK
5. Wakatakakage 8-7
6. Wakamotoharu MK
7. Nishikigi KK
8. Chiyosakae KK
9. Kainoshima MK
10. Suzuki MK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru KK

TB 12

[Athenayama 1,041]

1. Kamito MK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko KK
5. Wakatakakage 9-6
6. Wakamotoharu MK
7. Nishikigi MK
8. Chiyosakae MK
9. Kainoshima MK
10. Suzuki MK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru KK

TB 12

Edited July 9, 2022 by Athenayama

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara MK
4. Kiryuko KK
5. Wakatakakage 8-7
6. Wakamotoharu KK
7. Nishikigi MK
8. Chiyosakae MK
9. Kainoshima KK
10. Suzuki KK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru MK

TB 12

-----

Edited July 9, 2022 by Mmikasazuma

[WAKATAKE 2,656]

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara MK
4. Kiryuko KK
5. Wakatakakage 7-8
6. Wakamotoharu MK
7. Nishikigi KK
8. Chiyosakae MK
9. Kainoshima KK
10. Suzuki MK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru KK

TB 12

[Jejima 1,384]

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara KK
4. Kiryuko KK
5. Wakatakakage 8-7
6. Wakamotoharu KK
7. Nishikigi KK
8. Chiyosakae KK
9. Kainoshima KK
10. Suzuki KK
11. Mukainakano KK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru KK

TB 16

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Heads-up: Among the 4-KK rikishi, Nakaishi and Kototaiga are listed as kyujo, and will thus not be considered for LKS. Feel free to adjust your tie-breaker guesses if you deem it necessary.

@Yarimotsu @Sakura @Profomisakari @Hakuryuho @Holleshoryu @Athenayama @Mmikasazuma @WAKATAKE @Jejima

Edited July 9, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Athenayama 1,041]

I adjusted mine (12 now).

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Kamito                       MK
2. Ryuo                           MK
3. Nobehara                                 KK
4. Kiryuko                       MK
5. Wakatakakage                       10-5
6. Wakamotoharu         MK
7. Nishikigi                     MK
8. Chiyosakae                MK
9. Kainoshima                MK
10. Suzuki                                      KK
11. Mukainakano                          KK
12. Ryuden                                     KK
13. Tochimaru                 MK

TB 11

[Tameiki 185]

1. Kamito KK
2. Ryuo KK
3. Nobehara MK
4. Kiryuko MK
5. Wakatakakage 12-3
6. Wakamotoharu KK
7. Nishikigi KK
8. Chiyosakae MK
9. Kainoshima KK
10. Suzuki KK
11. Mukainakano MK
12. Ryuden KK
13. Tochimaru KK

TB 9

[Asashosakari 19,319]

- Kamito
- Ryuo
- Nobehara
+ Kiryuko
10 Wakatakakage
- Wakamotoharu
- Nishikigi
- Chiyosakae
- Kainoshima
+ Suzuki
+ Mukainakano
+ Ryuden
+ Tochimaru

TB 11

[Rocks 1,809]

 1. Kamito          KK
 2. Ryuo            KK
 3. Nobehara        KK
 4. Kiryuko         KK
 5. Wakatakakage   8-7
 6. Wakamotoharu  MK
 7. Nishikigi       MK
 8. Chiyosakae      KK
 9. Kainoshima      MK
10. Suzuki          MK
11. Mukainakano     MK
12. Ryuden          KK
13. Tochimaru       MK

TB: 11

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Astonishingly, LKS managed to escape the Covid carnage completely unscathed, at least for this basho. We did have five rikishi from stables that were unable to get through the entire tournament, but Nakaishi (Hanaregoma) and Kototaiga (Sadogatake) were absent from the start, while Nishikigi (Isenoumi, KK), Daishoki (Oitekaze, MK) and Kototakuya (Sadogatake, MK) all reached a gameplay-relevant outcome before their respective exits. Nakaishi's full kyujo was particularly fortunate for the game as his stable was among the first to withdraw and short of a 4-0 or 0-4 start he wouldn't have made it as an active competitor.

Full results shortly.

I do dread having to figure out who qualifies as a rikishi on a KK streak for the next few tournaments, however...

[Athenayama 1,041]

On 25/07/2022 at 05:01, Asashosakari said:

 

Full results shortly.

 

Don't think we forgot about this. 

[Asashosakari 19,319]

So, uh, hello... Starting the long road back to relevance.
 

Player	Kamito	Ryuo	Nobe	Kiryu	W'kage		W'haru	Nishiki	C'sakae	Kaino	Suzuki	Mukai	Ryuden	T'maru	TB	Cons
Yarimotsu	+	-	+	-	+	9-6	-	+	+	-	-	+	+	-	14	1.58
Sakura	+	+	+	-	+	9-6	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	12	1.45
Profomisakari	+	-	+	-	+	10-5	+	-	+	-	-	+	+	-	12	1.58
Hakuryuho	-	+	+	-	+	9-6	+	-	+	-	-	+	+	-	12	1.53
Holleshoryu	-	+	+	-	-	8-7	-	+	+	-	-	+	+	+	12	1.63
Athenayama	-	+	+	+	+	9-6	-	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	12	1.48
Mmikasazuma	+	+	-	+	-	8-7	+	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	12	1.74
WAKATAKE	+	+	-	+	-	MK	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	+	12	1.74
Jejima	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	16	1.74
chishafuwaku	-	-	+	-	+	10-5	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	-	11	1.58
Tameiki	+	+	-	-	+	12-3	+	+	-	+	+	-	+	+	9	1.93
Asashosakari	-	-	-	+	+	10-5	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	11	1.74
Rocks	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	-	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	11	1.70
	8:5	9:4	9:4	6:7	8:5		5:8	5:8	6:7	5:8	6:7	11:2	13:0	6:7
Results	-	+	-	+	- (KK)		-	+	+	-	+	+	+	-

For our sole remaining sanyaku rikishi at this time, Wakatakakage, 9-6 (8:5 split) narrowly won out over 10-5 (possible 4:9 split) as his target record for Nagoya basho.

No particularly similar entries - all players were separated by at least two picks in pair-wise comparisons - and in general there was a lot of disagreement over the likely outcomes. Only 12 rikishi in play overall due to Ryuden unanimously being expected to KK, one of just two rikishi with a clear picking trend.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 7

First blood was drawn among the nine off-ballot rikishi, with Kinbozan and Chiyotora collecting the early kachikoshi while Daishoki unfortunately started off 0-4.

No further news the next two days, so moving on to...

Day 10

Unanimous pick Ryuden scored the first KK on the ballot, followed shortly after by Nishikigi in the top division. Conversely, two more 4-KK hopefuls dropped off - makekoshi for Haruminato and Kototakuya, so no entry to the ballot for them.
 

Day 10: 2/13 Decisions, TB 4-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Holleshoryu	2	12
1	WAKATAKE	2	12
3	Tameiki	2	9
3	Yarimotsu	2	14
5	Jejima	2	16
6	Asashosakari	1	11
6	Athenayama	1	12
6	chishafuwaku	1	11
6	Hakuryuho	1	12
6	Mmikasazuma	1	12
6	Profomisakari	1	12
6	Rocks	1	11
6	Sakura	1	12

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 11

The first pair of KK records outside the sekitori ranks came in with Mukainakano and Kiryuko reasserting their place on the ballot. Sophomore juryo Tochimaru fell to MK, however.

Two new results away from the ballot went into opposite directions; returning from injury former mid-makushita youngster Inoue picked up his fifth kachikoshi, while veteran Akiseyama posted a losing record.

No perfect scores left already.
 

Day 11: 5/13 Decisions, TB 7-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Mmikasazuma	4	12
1	WAKATAKE	4	12
3	Yarimotsu	4	14
4	Jejima	4	16
5	Athenayama	3	12
5	Hakuryuho	3	12
5	Holleshoryu	3	12
5	Profomisakari	3	12
5	Sakura	3	12
10	Asashosakari	3	11
10	chishafuwaku	3	11
10	Rocks	3	11
13	Tameiki	2	9

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 12

Rookie sekitori Chiyosakae defied the history of most old newcomers to the salaried ranks and collected his 8th win on this day. Kainoshima found himself makekoshi in makushita.

The off-ballot squad finished up early with the final two results, both of the negative variety; neither Raiho nor Asakiryu would join the next LKS edition.

A sole leader appeared.
 

Day 12: 7/13 Decisions, TB 8-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Yarimotsu	6	14
2	Rocks	5	11
3	Hakuryuho	5	12
3	Holleshoryu	5	12
3	Profomisakari	5	12
6	Jejima	5	16
7	Asashosakari	4	11
7	chishafuwaku	4	11
9	Athenayama	4	12
9	Mmikasazuma	4	12
9	WAKATAKE	4	12
12	Sakura	3	12
13	Tameiki	2	9

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 13

And another day with split decisions, this time going favourably for young talent Suzuki, and not so much for maegashira Wakamotoharu at his career-high rank.

Same leader, same number of pursuers but with two different names among them.
 

Day 13: 9/13 Decisions, TB 9-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Yarimotsu	7	14
2	Asashosakari	6	11
2	chishafuwaku	6	11
2	Rocks	6	11
5	Holleshoryu	6	12
6	Jejima	6	16
7	Athenayama	5	12
7	Hakuryuho	5	12
7	Mmikasazuma	5	12
7	Profomisakari	5	12
7	Sakura	5	12
7	WAKATAKE	5	12
13	Tameiki	3	9

Incredibly, there were still seven players with yusho hopes at this point - obviously the leader, four pursuers (all but Jejima, who could only achieve a losing playoff), and from two points down even Athenayama and WAKATAKE.

 

 

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 14

The basho home stretch started off with resurgent 28-year-old Ryuo completing his 8th straight kachikoshi. This result eliminated chishafuwaku from contention and significantly hurt both Asashosakari and Yarimotsu.

Next up was Nobehara, who dropped to makekoshi ending his own KK streak at 6. Athenayama was now dead in the water, leaving five contenders with just two rikishi to go (one of their four possible win/loss outcomes was further divided between two players based on the final tie-breaker score).

Moving on up to juryo where Kamito made his first ever appearance in a sekitori bout, sadly without success and going makekoshi in the process. Yarimotsu, Rocks and WAKATAKE were all eliminated.

And in the penultimate bout of the day, sekiwake Wakatakakage secured his KK and retained the chance to hit his 9-6 target record on senshuraku.

A yusho-contending duo thus deposed Yarimotsu atop the leaderboard.
 

Day 14: 12/13 Decisions, TB 11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	8	11
2	Holleshoryu	8	12
3	chishafuwaku	7	11
3	Rocks	7	11
5	Athenayama	7	12
5	Hakuryuho	7	12
5	Jejima	7	16
5	Mmikasazuma	7	12
5	WAKATAKE	7	12
5	Yarimotsu	7	14
11	Sakura	6	12
12	Profomisakari	5	12
12	Tameiki	5	9

A one-match senshuraku shootout from here: Asashosakari required Wakatakakage to win against ozeki Shodai, Holleshoryu required the loss. With both possibilities covered, an outright yusho was assured one way or the other.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,319]

Day 15

And at last the LKS yusho was decided - Wakatakakage's defeat at the hands of Shodai meant that Holleshoryu was the winner, collecting his fifth cup. (Belated) Congrats! Asashosakari had to settle for the jun-yusho, shared with Rocks but not three other players on the same points score as only these two also hit the tie-breaker prediction

The final standings for Nagoya basho:
 

Day 15: 13/13 Decisions, TB 11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Holleshoryu	9	12
2	Asashosakari	8	11
2	Rocks	8	11
4	Jejima	8	16
4	Mmikasazuma	8	12
4	WAKATAKE	8	12
7	chishafuwaku	7	11
8	Athenayama	7	12
8	Hakuryuho	7	12
8	Yarimotsu	7	14
11	Sakura	6	12
12	Profomisakari	5	12
12	Tameiki	5	9

Shin-yokozuna chishafuwaku joined the two runners-up in getting the TB right.

The not-so-new ballot for (from?) Aki 2022:

    Kamito          7
 1. Ryuo            8
    Nobehara        6*
 2. Kiryuko         7*
 3. Wakatakakage    6
    Wakamotoharu    5
 4. Nishikigi       6
 5. Chiyosakae      6
    Kainoshima      5
 6. Suzuki          6
 7. Mukainakano     6*
 8. Ryuden          5
    Tochimaru       4
 9. Kinbozan        5*
10. Chiyotora       5
11. Inoue           5
---
12. Hoshoryu        4
13. Midorifuji      4
14. Hokuseiho       4
15. Gonoyama        4

A new toriteki in the top spot after Kamito's departure, and a big batch of sekitori additions at the bottom including a second sanyaku-ranker in Hoshoryu.