Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 14

Makuuchi
12-2: M1e Takayasu
11-3: Ō1e Takakeisho, M9w Abi

Has the Burly Brawly Berseker from 'Baraki finally gone and done it? With his win today against Kagayaki, Takayasu preserved the lead, ensured he matched his best ever result, ensured no worse than a yūshō-dōten for only the second time in his career (out of 7 total junyūshō results including this basho), and finally puts him on course to secure his very first yūshō outright if he can win tomorrow against Abi. No ifs, no buts; win once tomorrow  beat Shikoroyama's heyagashira in regulation and the yūshō is his.

Yet it's Takayasu we're talking about, and the possibility of a choke can't be discounted. His sumo, while strong and brutal, has not been without its gaps. He is arguably lucky to be on 12-2; he had close shaves against at least Kiribayama and today's opponent Kagayaki which could have gone either way, and if either opponent had been sharper he would have been sent on his way with okuridashi. Lose tomorrow against Abi, who is looking sharp with a well-timed pulldown of Hōshōryū today, and he enters a playoff with at least Abi, with no telling what that loss does to his mental state. if he loses that playoff, he extends his junyūshō record to 7. That brings him to joint second on the list of rikishi with the most junyūshō and who have never won a yūshō, coequal with disgraced yokozuna Futahaguro and only one behind ōzeki Yutakayama. To be fair to Takayasu though, the fact that he has recovered from situations that look bad multiple times now is a good sign for him in terms of his ring reaction, and sometimes this kind of belief in invulnerability can actually pay dividends in confidence projection. Either way, we'll see tomorrow in the 8th last bout of the day; coincidentally, the yūshō deciding bout against Tamawashi last basho was also the 8th last bout of the day, and that bout also featured the possibility of a playoff, with Takayasu in Abi's position then. A good omen? You decide.

The last wildcard in tomorrow's yūshō race is Takakeishō, who has Wakatakakage, without doubt the sharpest remaining of sanyaku opponents that the ōzeki hasn't fought yet. The customary ōzeki showdown against Shōdai will be foregone, as will be another possible matchup against hapless sekiwake Mitakeumi, which isn't surprising considering how absolutely shambolic their bout today was. Takakeishō must win and hope Abi drags Takayasu down to enter a three-way playoff, otherwise, he sits from the sidelines and watches either Takayasu or Abi lift the cup for the first time. 

Jūryō
11-3: J12w Ōshōma
10-4: J6e Hokuseihō, J3e Tsurugishō, J5e Akua, J9e Daiamami

Both Miyagino rikishi slipped up today to hand Ōshōma the lead. Enhō was arguably hard done by by an erroneous matta call, ruining the "surprise" of a harite that he apparently had had prepared to assist his heyagashira and which got him into a good sideways position before the tachiai was redone. Nonetheless, he gave Ōshōma a good fight, but overreached for a push out lunge and was swatted down by a dodging Ōshōma.

Two bouts later, Hokuseihō goofed against Daiamami, being surprisingly moved by the smaller man and then running out of room to set his foot for a shitatenage. It's not definitely over for him yet, but he needs to beat KK-seeking Kōtokuzan and pray Ōshōma loses against Daiamami tomorrow, and then he'd still be in a 3-5 man playoff. Akua and Tsurugishō have 8-6 opponents tomorrow, so more likely than not they'd have the stronger impetus to win to maintain their hopes of a jūryō yūshō. Daiamami and Akua both have playoff experience, the former three times (with one yūshō) and the latter once in the madhouse 6-man playoff involving Meisei and Hōshōryū two years ago, so their chances are decent if things get to that stage, while Tsurugishō has got 2 jūryō yūshō and might want to cement his return to the top division in fine style.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki 40,774]

7 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

No ifs, no buts; win once tomorrow and the yūshō is his

An if: in case he blows the first chance and a tomoesen happens, he needs 2 wins in a row

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 14

Legend:
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku/joi

	0-0-14	Terunofuji	Y
O	11-3	Takakeishō	O	Shōdai	6-8	X
O	8-6	Wakatakakage	S	Hōshōryū	10-4	O
			S	Mitakeumi	6-8	X/1
X	5-9	Tamawashi	K	Kiribayama	8-6	O
X	6-8	Tobizaru	K	Daieishō	6-8	X
O	12-2	Takayasu	M1	Kotonowaka	8-6	~
~	8-6	Meisei	M2	Ichinojō	3-11	X
X	4-10	Ura	M3	Midorifuji	7-7
~	9-5	Wakamotoharu	M4	Sadanoumi	7-7
	6-8	Hokutofuji	M5	Nishikifuji	8-6
	7-7	Nishikigi	M6	Ryūden	9-5
	6-8	Endō	M7	Myōgiryū	7-7

Demotion queue: Tamawashi, Daieishō, Tobizaru, Mitakeumi
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Wakamotoharu

Not a good day for sanyaku incumbents seeking to hold rank. Wakatakakage was the only one to secure his rank today, joining Hōshōryū and Shōdai as confirmed sekiwake for Hatsu 2023, while Mitakeumi crumpled to said Shōdai in a bout that had no business whatsoever being musubi-no-ichiban and looked more like a tanker crash. With that loss, Mitakeumi drops to at least komusubi, and might even fall out of sanyaku should he lose tomorrow as well. He has 8-6 Nishikifuji, so he might have some hope, but Nishikifuji is one of the few Isegahama rikishi still in operating condition so I wouldn't be surprised if he lost that one too.

With Daieishō's eighth loss today, three of the existing four komusubi are definitely dropping out. With Takayasu's confirmed promotion (the only question being how high he will go), we are looking at a minimum of five junior sanyaku: Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, Shōdai, Takayasu, and Kiribayama. Mitakeumi might join them if he wins tomorrow. Kotonowaka may or may not go up; he lost today to cap his maximum score at 9-6 and it's not unprecedented for 9-6 M1w to be shifted (or shafted) over to M1e only when there isn't space in lower sanyaku. It's possible that if he and Takayasu both win and Mitakeumi loses, the banzuke committee may consider Takayasu's relatively strong results and three yūshō challenges within one year to put him up at sekiwake, leaving a komusubi spot open for Kotonowaka to make his sanyaku debut, but any of these results going the other way might significantly alter the calculus against Kotonowaka.

That being said, as mentioned by @Sumo Spiffy/@Gurowake yesterday, another factor in Kotonowaka's favour might be the logjam in the joi if he weren't promoted. Even if Mitakeumi wins tomorrow, the net 2 drops from sanyaku (3 drop, but Takayasu definitely goes up) combined with 4 existing KK (Kotonowaka, Meisei, Wakamotoharu, Nishikifuji) with no sanyaku space and up to 4 more KK in or below the joi (Midorifuji, Sadanoumi, Nishikigi, Ryūden) may make M1-M3 very crowded in a hurry. There are too many rikishi to profitably calculate permutations, but suffice to say that it is possible that almost all of them win with the only intra-joi bout being Ryūden v Kotonowaka (but both have KK). Given that it also depends on one of 8 possible outcomes between him, Takayasu, and Mitakeumi, we'll leave that for tomorrow's discussion.

Makuuchi/jūryō

~	2-12	Takarafuji	M8
			...
			M12	Chiyotairyū	2-6	X
			...
			M15	Atamifuji	3-11	X
X	0-14	Terutsuyoshi	M16
			J1	Chiyomaru	8-6	O
			J2	Bushōzan	7-7	X
O	10-4	Tsurugishō	J3	Mitoryū	9-5	O
			J4
O	10-4	Akua	J5
1	10-4	Hokuseihō	J6

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū, Terutsuyoshi, Atamifuji, Takarafuji
Promotion queue: Tsurugishō, Chiyomaru, Mitoryū, Akua, Hokuseihō

I don't want to know what ails Isegahama this basho, but they might be the first to have three rikishi fall out of the top division together since Hanakago in 1967 (the stable Wakanohana I and Wajima fought out of). Takarafuji lost today to put his fate in the hands of the banzuke gods; one more loss and he's almost definitely out, and a win doesn't guarantee his stay either if for instance all jūryō potentiates win. With sanyaku shrinking to a maximum of 9 (Terunofuji, Takakeishō, Shōdai, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, Mitakeumi, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka) and more probably, even lesser (a minimum possible of 7 with Terunofuji, Takakeishō, Shōdai, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, Kiribayama, Takayasu), he might just be saved if M17 (or M18) reappears and he limits the damage to 3-12, but 2-13 puts him at M19 with a definitely demotable record.

On the other side, Tsurugishō won today to go no worse than J-2e. By virtue of his superior east position, Chiyomaru and Mitoryū cannot catch him despite their best efforts even if he loses, and only Akua can tie with him if Akua wins and Tsurugishō loses, so it's safe to say he's either first or second in the promotion queue regardless of tomorrow's results. The other two spots are not yet confirmed, though: Chiyomaru and Mitoryū are the current front runners based on rank/record, but losses could allow Akua and Hokuseihō to overtake them if they win tomorrow. Either way, Bushōzan, losing today, will have to fight tomorrow for his KK, and can at best expect a minimal promotion within jūryō given the other strong results that might not be promoted to makuuchi.

Jūryō/makushita

			J10	Kaishō	4-10	~
			...
~	4-10	Tokushōryū	J12
O	7-7	Shimazuumi	J13
~	6-8	Tsushimanada	J14	Gōnoyama	8-6	O
			Ms1	Shōnannoumi	5-2	O
			Ms2	Fujiseiun	3-3	1~
X	3-4	Tokihayate	Ms3
O	6-1	Asanoyama	Ms4
			Ms5	Hakuyōzan	5-1	1

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Tokushōryū, Kaishō, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Shōnannoumi, Asanoyama, Hakuyōzan (with a win), Fujiseiun (with a win), Hakuyōzan (with a loss)

Gōnoyama managed to remove himself to safety, leaving behind Tokushōryū, Kaishō, and Tsushimanada to play the game of "outrun the bear". Exchange bouts add a frisson into proceedings tomorrow, as @Koorifuu noted: Fujiseiun has Tsushimanada, while Hakuyōzan has Kaishō. There are 3 bouts and therefore 8 possibilities, but they can be broadly grouped into whether Fujiseiun, first up to bat, wins or loses, since he's not a promotion candidate if he loses.

If Fujiseiun loses, things are simple. Tsushimanada is safe and Asanoyama will force Tokushōryū down. Hakuyōzan's promotion then depends on his exchange bout with Kaishō.

Things get more complicated if Fujiseiun wins, because there are then four potentially different outcomes. If Hakuyōzan wins, then he also goes up, and Fujiseiun's fate is borderline against Tokushōryū's but only if Tokushōryū wins; Fujiseun will go up if Tokushōryu loses. If Hakuyōzan loses, then Fujiseiun is only a surefire up if Tokushōryū also loses, otherwise Fujiseiun and Hakuyōzan will be borderline against Tokūshōryū and Kaishō, and Hakuyōzan is then in doubt because he lost an exchange bout.

(Yes, this took a flowchart in bullet form to work out. Sorry!)

P.S.: Apologies to @Reonito for rather shamelessly ripping off the queue format; I didn't quite realise where it came from until I did the "with a win/loss" thing.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

			J10	Kaishō	4-10	~
			...
~	4-10	Tokushōryū	J12
O	7-7	Shimazuumi	J13
~	6-8	Tsushimanada	J14	Gōnoyama	8-6	O
			Ms1	Shōnannoumi	5-2	O
			Ms2	Fujiseiun	3-3	1~
X	3-4	Tokihayate	Ms3
O	6-1	Asanoyama	Ms4
			Ms5	Hakuyōzan	5-1	1

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Tokushōryū, Kaishō, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Shōnannoumi, Asanoyama, Hakuyōzan (with a win), Fujiseiun (with a win), Hakuyōzan (with a loss)

(---)

If Fujiseiun loses, things are simple. Tsushimanada is safe and Asanoyama will force Tokushōryū down.

I'm confused. How is Tsushimanada safe in this case? Shonnanoumi's going up. Asanoyama's going up. Even if we assume that Tsushimanada wins and puts himself ahead of Kaisho in any circumstance, that means Sho and Asa are pushing Toku and Kaisho down. Tsushi's fate would be in Hakuyozan's hands then, wouldn't it?

[Gurowake 4,104]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If Hakuyōzan loses, then Fujiseiun is only a surefire up if Tokushōryū also loses

What?  Did you miscount?  Tokushoryu is toast.  He can't even get within 1 win of being not demotable.  He can draw level with Tsushimanada, but only if Tsushimanada loses to allow another rikishi with another easily promotable score against their clearly demotable scores.  I fail to see how it's not Asanoyama and Shonannoumi up for Chiyotairyu and Tokushoryu, and then two straight-up exchange bouts.   I think that's the case because a 5-2 Hakuyozan is unlikely to force down a 5-10 Kaisho or 7-8 Tsushimanada, especially given it would mean losing an exchange bout.  5-2 Ms5w does not look impressive against guys who are only demotable by one or two slots (ie less than a full win), and Fujiseiun obviously won't be promoted if he loses while Kaisho's score would clearly be worse than Tsushimanada's in that case.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,104]

19 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm confused. How is Tsushimanada safe in this case? Shonnanoumi's going up. Asanoyama's going up. Even if we assume that Tsushimanada wins and puts himself ahead of Kaisho in any circumstance, that means Sho and Asa are pushing Toku and Kaisho down. Tsushi's fate would be in Hakuyozan's hands then, wouldn't it?

Are you forgetting about Chiyotairyu? 

[Sakura 1,495]

30 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I'm confused. How is Tsushimanada safe in this case? Shonnanoumi's going up. Asanoyama's going up. Even if we assume that Tsushimanada wins and puts himself ahead of Kaisho in any circumstance, that means Sho and Asa are pushing Toku and Kaisho down. Tsushi's fate would be in Hakuyozan's hands then, wouldn't it?

The first slot is Chiyotairyu's intai. 

EDIT: Got distracted whilst writing this, and @Gurowake beat me to it.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Sakura

[Gurowake 4,104]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Takarafuji lost today to put his fate in the hands of the banzuke gods; one more loss and he's almost definitely out, and a win doesn't guarantee his stay either if for instance all jūryō potentiates win. With sanyaku shrinking to a maximum of 9 (Terunofuji, Takakeishō, Shōdai, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, Mitakeumi, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka) and more probably, even lesser (a minimum possible of 7 with Terunofuji, Takakeishō, Shōdai, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, Kiribayama, Takayasu), he might just be saved if M17 (or M18) reappears and he limits the damage to 3-12, but 2-13 puts him at M19 with a definitely demotable record.

While I haven't done a lot of research on exactly what they've done lately, my gut memory is that if the sanyaku contracts, they completely ignore how many maegashira slots there will be on the new banzuke, and only look at what the current banzuke is like.  If the sanyaku expands, they may have to consider the new number of maegashira simply because it becomes more restrictive in how to arrange guys with MKs near the bottom of the division (see Oho's demotion recently), but otherwise ignore the reduction in maegashira.

Generally I would expect a 3-12 to go down 8 slots (1 better than the numbers) if we're talking about ranking within the same division, but I also seem to recall that they're more likely to be demoted than that intradivision placement would suggest.  Thus, since there are 4 promotable Juryo records and only 3 other sure Makuuchi demotions, I think Takarafuji is probably toast.  That's what I find more likely than not at least, assuming that at least one of the 3 non-Tsurugisho Juryo rikishi with promotable records loses.  If they all win, he's clearly toast, and Hokuseiho will be sad if he wins and there's no room.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

23 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Are you forgetting about Chiyotairyu? 

 

13 minutes ago, Sakura said:

The first slot is Chiyotairyu's intai. 

EDIT: Got distracted whilst writing this, and @Gurowake beat me to it.

100% correct. Didn't even occur to me that someone from the first division leaving affects the whole banzuke, not just the top two divisions.

I was sitting there staring at it for a while, too. 

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

17 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

While I haven't done a lot of research on exactly what they've done lately, my gut memory is that if the sanyaku contracts, they completely ignore how many maegashira slots there will be on the new banzuke, and only look at what the current banzuke is like.  If the sanyaku expands, they may have to consider the new number of maegashira simply because it becomes more restrictive in how to arrange guys with MKs near the bottom of the division (se Oho's demotion recently), but otherwise ignore the reduction in maegashira.

This is how I've begun treating it through observation/research as well. When I first started playing around with banzukes, my assumption was that they worked new (or disappearing) ranks into the calculation, because those ranks were going to be part of the new one. That was the cause of a lot of my early mistakes, though, and it became much more accurate to take the current banzuke, do the calculations, shuffle everyone into mathematical position, then insert the new banzuke and place everyone accordingly, accounting for numerical requisites (e.g. winning records can't go down, even if they bypass more rikishi in a top-to-bottom sense than would normally happen with their records).

This should very much be considered an occasion where 8-7s may not be promoted. The last time 8-7s in makuuchi failed to receive any promotion, and the only time in the last twenty years, was going from Kyushu 2019 into Hatsu 2020, where the sanyaku shrank from eleven to eight. If this one goes from ten to seven, especially given how things look at the top, I think we should fully expect the same.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If Hakuyōzan loses, then Fujiseiun is only a surefire up if Tokushōryū also loses

What?  Did you miscount?  Tokushoryu is toast.  He can't even get within 1 win of being not demotable.  He can draw level with Tsushimanada, but only if Tsushimanada loses to allow another rikishi with another easily promotable score against their clearly demotable scores.  I fail to see how it's not Asanoyama and Shonannoumi up for Chiyotairyu and Tokushoryu, and then two straight-up exchange bouts.   I think that's the case because a 5-2 Hakuyozan is unlikely to force down a 5-10 Kaisho or 7-8 Tsushimanada, especially given it would mean losing an exchange bout.  5-2 Ms5w does not look impressive against guys who are only demotable by one or two slots (ie less than a full win), and Fujiseiun obviously won't be promoted if he loses while Kaisho's score would clearly be worse than Tsushimanada's in that case.

In the event that I did miscount let me redo the math, yoinking the table and other relevant info down here. I assume I got the scenario in the case of Fujiseiun losing right or else you'd have said something about that too.

			J10	Kaishō	4-10
	4-10	Tokushōryū	J12
	6-8	Tsushimanada	J14
			Ms1	Shōnannoumi	5-2
			Ms2	Fujiseiun	3-3
			Ms3
	6-1	Asanoyama	Ms4
			Ms5	Hakuyōzan	5-1

Demotion queue: Chiyotairyū*, Tokushōryū, Kaishō, Tsushimanada
Promotion queue: Shōnannoumi, Asanoyama, Hakuyōzan (with a win), Fujiseiun (with a win), Hakuyōzan (with a loss)

Tokushōryū leads the demotion queue right now at J18e, with Kaishō at J16w and Tsushimanada at J16e. Since we're talking about the scenario where Fujiseiun has won, Tsushimanada goes to J17e. More crucially I assume Asanoyama is a priority over Fujiseiun for promotion having the far superior rank/record combination, which is why I didn't straight up deal with Fujiseiun v Tsushimanada as an exchange bout. 

Any scenario where Tokushōryū loses is simple. Shōnnanoumi, Asanoyama, and Fujiseiun displace Chiyotairyū, Tokushōryū, and Tsushimanada, then it just reduces to Hakuyōzan v Kaishō for the jūryō spot. If Tokushōryū wins, one of two outcomes. Not contentious is the one where Hakuyōzan loses: J17e Tsushimanada and Tokushōryū, J15w Kaishō. Asanoyama and Fujiseiun send down Tsushimanada and Tokushōryū, tough luck Hakuyōzan but you blew it.

The troublesome one is where Hakuyōzan wins, Tsushimanada loses, and Tokushōryū wins. We have J17w Kaishō, J17e Tsushimanada and Tokushōryū. Kaishō and Tsushimanada are definitely going down, but Tokushōryū, having a higher rank as against Tsushimanada, ought to be further back in the demotion queue, if only just, to match the last promotion candidate, Ms2w 4-3 Fujiseiun.

I thought I wrote that it wouldn't surprise me either way to see Fujiseiun or Tokushōryū in jūryō next basho, because while 5-10 J12e almost always goes down, there was one case in Natsu 2005 of Sumanofuji who stayed up because he had the least bad record and they literally ran out of promotion cases in the makushita joi, so he survived by an extraordinary piece of banzuke luck. Turns out I wiped it from the final draft. Combined with the fact that 4-3 from Ms2w wasn't so strong a record to guarantee promotion, you got the opinion that it was borderline, also because I didn't want to be definitive that Tokushōryū was 100% gonecase when there was the Sumanofuji possibility having made that mistake with demotions (:cough: Atamifuji) earlier this basho.

On reviewing it now I think it's not borderline, it's more like 80%+ at least, but is a 4-3 Ms2w always guaranteed to force down J12e 5-10 in a vacuum? Or is it wrong to be so discrete about who forces who down when there are tied records, as long as there are enough good records?

Edited November 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,108]

34 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Are you forgetting about Chiyotairyu? 

 

50 minutes ago, Sakura said:

The first slot is Chiyotairyu's intai. 

EDIT: Got distracted whilst writing this, and @Gurowake beat me to it.

100% correct. Didn't even occur to me that someone from the first division leaving affects the whole banzuke, not just the top two divisions.

I was sitting there staring at it for a while, too. 

I thought bolding and asterisking Chiyotairyū was sufficient, plus you even quoted that section!

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

I thought bolding and asterisking Chiyotairyū was sufficient, plus you even quoted that section!

Just because I can grind research doesn't make me smart or observant. 

[Gurowake 4,104]

15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

but is a 4-3 Ms2w always guaranteed to force down J12e 5-10 in a vacuum?

I would say this happens 100% of the time.  A 4-3 Ms2 only doesn't get promoted when there is clearly no room.  A 5-10 J12 with only 14 ranks is over one loss beyond demotable.  While there are plenty of 4-3 Ms2s not promoted, I would think finding one when there was someone as demotable as a 5-10 J12 not demoted would be extremely hard.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,104]

17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

The troublesome one is where Hakuyōzan wins, Tsushimanada loses, and Tokushōryū wins. We have J17w Kaishō, J17e Tsushimanada and Tokushōryū. Kaishō and Tsushimanada are definitely going down, but Tokushōryū, having a higher rank as against Tsushimanada, ought to be further back in the demotion queue, if only just, to match the last promotion candidate, Ms2w 4-3 Fujiseiun.

I fail to see this being difficult.  Fujiseiun, Hakuyozan, Shonannoumi, and Asanoyama for Chiyotairyu, Tsushimanada, Tokushoryu, and Kaisho.

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

22 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

On reviewing it now I think it's not borderline, it's more like 80%+ at least, but is a 4-3 Ms2w always guaranteed to force down J12e 5-10 in a vacuum?

 

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I would say this happens 100% of the time.  A 4-3 Ms2 only doesn't get promoted when there is clearly no room.  A 5-10 J12 with only 14 ranks is over one loss beyond demotable.

Looking up the last several instances of 4-3 Ms2s not being promoted to juryo, there haven't been any borderline cases. Nobody who was reasonably able to be dumped out of juryo was kept in favor of the makushita promotee; everyone who was promoted instead of the 4-3 Ms2 had a clearly stronger case.

Edit: The upshot is that I think this is a conversation with a 6-9 Tokushoryu, but not a 5-10 one.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,519]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Two bouts later, Hokuseihō goofed against Daiamami, being surprisingly moved by the smaller man and then running out of room to set his foot for a shitatenage.

Daiamami outweighs Hokuseiho, and taking him on in a yotsu bout from the front rarely goes well for the opponent.

[Reonito 1,519]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Fujiseiun's fate is borderline against Tokushōryū's but only if Tokushōryū wins;

It would be very, very unusual for a 5-10 J12 to stay; even a 6-9 is a demotable record if needed. I think Tokushoryu is down no matter what, which is why he isn't facing a Makushita opponent.

[Reonito 1,519]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

but is a 4-3 Ms2w always guaranteed to force down J12e 5-10 in a vacuum?

Yes, absolutely. A 4-3 Ms2 is unlucky not to go up, while it literally takes a complete lack of viable promotion candidates for a 5-10 J12 to stay. Heck, I think they'd send a 4-3 Ms5 up instead, and might even look below "the invisible line" (though I guess the fact that they didn't go with a 5-2 Ms6w in Sumanofuji's case argues against that last point).

Edited November 26, 2022 by Reonito

[Suwihuto 133]

I'm sure it wouldn't happen, but is it theoretically possible for a zenpai from M16 to take someone all the way to Makushita?

[Octofuji 368]

23 minutes ago, Suwihuto said:

I'm sure it wouldn't happen, but is it theoretically possible for a zenpai from M16 to take someone all the way to Makushita?

There have been very few 0-15 records. The most recent is Itai in July 1991 who went from M14 to J9. So if that's anything to go by Terutsuyoshi should be fine.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_losses=15&form1_m=on

Oki and Fujiazuma have recently gone 0-15 in juryo (in successive bashos, in fact), so I was surprised to find how rare a 'feat' this is overall.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_losses=15&form1_j=on

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Daiamami outweighs Hokuseiho, and taking him on in a yotsu bout from the front rarely goes well for the opponent.

By 8 kilos - thought the 16cm height advantage would have made up for it. Shorter would have been more accurate but either way I'm surprised at Hokuseihō. 

[Reonito 1,519]

17 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

By 8 kilos - thought the 16cm height advantage would have made up for it. Shorter would have been more accurate but either way I'm surprised at Hokuseihō. 

I think it was a tactical mistake

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Quick updates rather than a full post because I think most of the issues were quite clearly thrashed out yesterday:

The makushita/jūryō exchange sorts itself out: Shōnannoumi takes Chiyotairyū's berth, Asanoyama forces down Tokushōryū, and both jūryō rikishi won their exchange bouts, making it likely that they'll stay.

Daiamami and Ōshōma will contest a two-man playoff. 

The jūryō promotion queue looks like Tsurugishō, Akua, Chiyomaru, and Mitoryū in favour of Chiyotairyū and the three Isegahama burnouts, although Takarafuji went 3-12 to at least have some hope of staying. Hokuseihō and Bushōzan lose out but will be binbo-gami next basho, by the looks of it. 

Oitekaze's Hitoshi takes the sandanme yūshō.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Katooshu 3,332]

Is a 10-5 J5 convincing over a 3-12 M8, or something that could feasibly go either way?

Edited November 27, 2022 by Katooshu