Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

1 hour ago, Ack! said:

I find it impossible to assemble a banzuke without Abi at K2w.  Otherwise there are too many conflicts in the upper maegashira ranks.  The banzuke committee will face the same problem.

Without another komusubi generally (and you happen to have Abi there), or without Abi specifically?

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Really the only way to alleviate part of the bottleneck at the top is to promote Takayasu to sekiwake. They can then be creative with the komusubi ranks

[Stelios 30]

I think Takayasu should be promoted to Sekiwake. Assume that next basho he gets another jusho-dotten (I cannot imagine he will ever win the cup). He should then become an Ozeki, fixing another hole in the banzuke. But as a Komusubi he won't be allowed to get promoted skipping a rank.

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

10 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Really the only way to alleviate part of the bottleneck at the top is to promote Takayasu to sekiwake. They can then be creative with the komusubi ranks

To be clear, promoting Takayasu to sekiwake versus komusubi makes no difference with regards to the potential bottleneck. That happens in the maegashira ranks, and once a guy is in the sanyaku, he's no longer part of that issue (until a later basho).

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

4 hours ago, Stelios said:

I think Takayasu should be promoted to Sekiwake. Assume that next basho he gets another jusho-dotten (I cannot imagine he will ever win the cup). He should then become an Ozeki, fixing another hole in the banzuke. But as a Komusubi he won't be allowed to get promoted skipping a rank.

Given his recent results, a promotion to sekiwake in recognition of a possible ozeki jump would be very reasonable. But until and unless they break the precedent set from moving Daieisho to K2W after a 13-2 yusho, with the same number of wins in his last two as Takayasu has here (23) from higher relative ranks (M2W/M1W vs. M4W/M1E), we shouldn't expect it to happen.

I think a lot of us would like to see this partially for sentimental reasons, but the committee isn't known for making decisions on the basis of sentiment. The only real reason this might happen is if they think the sport needs another ozeki now and they think he can keep his level up in Hatsu, but don't trust it will continue into Haru. Given the state of the upper ranks, there's probably a non-zero chance of that happening, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Edit: It's also worth mentioning that if they make him go through komusubi, they have more flexibility in the ozeki argument if he gets to sekiwake for Haru and does something short of the 33 win line.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Seiyashi 4,108]

47 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

10 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Really the only way to alleviate part of the bottleneck at the top is to promote Takayasu to sekiwake. They can then be creative with the komusubi ranks

To be clear, promoting Takayasu to sekiwake versus komusubi makes no difference with regards to the potential bottleneck. That happens in the maegashira ranks, and once a guy is in the sanyaku, he's no longer part of that issue (until a later basho).

It does, because if Takayasu is sekiwake, he's not a komusubi, and the most reasonable komusubi candidate to join Kiribayama is the maegashira Kotonowaka, and that alleviates the joi logjam. I guess the question is whether second-order banzuke luck is a thing - i.e. whether someone (in this case Takayasu) has received banzuke luck because someone else (e.g. Kotonowaka, although the lower joi would be equally apt) would be really stiffed otherwise, or because it was a logical implication of someone else's banzuke placement.

39 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

but the committee isn't known for making decisions on the basis of sentiment. The only real reason this might happen is if they think the sport needs another ozeki now and they think he can keep his level up in Hatsu, but don't trust it will continue into Haru

I wonder if Takayasu's record this year will sway them one way or another. Daieishō's results prior to his yūshō weren't great: 7-8, 8-7, 11-4 S, 5-10, 10-5, 13-2 YGS. In contrast, Takayasu has two basho out due to COVID, but he's been 6-9, 12-3 DK, 6-9, 11-4 JK (Kin), 12-3 DS. Much better from a yūshō arasoi and sanshō perspective, although the 6-9s undermine this somewhat. Basically, every time he hasn't been knackered, he's been a yūshō factor.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,648]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I think a lot of us would like to see this partially for sentimental reasons, but the committee isn't known for making decisions on the basis of sentiment.

Putting Takayasu at sekiwake would be the complete opposite of a sentimental decision. He's by far the most credible candidate to "fix" the ozeki shortage at the moment with his 23 wins against (mostly) joi opposition. 10 more wins, committee points to the fact that (unlike Miyabiyama way back when) his first tenure was actually pretty good and only ended due to injury, done. Facilitating that potential development by shuffling him up to sekiwake now would be entirely pragmatic.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,519]

23 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Putting Takayasu at sekiwake would be the complete opposite of a sentimental decision. He's by far the most credible candidate to "fix" the ozeki shortage at the moment with his 23 wins against (mostly) joi opposition. 10 more wins, committee points to the fact that (unlike Miyabiyama way back when) his first tenure was actually pretty good and only ended due to injury, done. Facilitating that potential development by shuffling him up to sekiwake now would be entirely pragmatic.

Welcome back! So you think they might be okay with M4-M1-S? They've never included two maegashira basho in a run, but there have been very few cases where it could even have been a possibility (Wakahanada being the most compelling), and in all of them the third basho was at komusubi.

[Wakawakawaka 157]

It gives the committee more justification and is more in line with precedent if he's Sekiwake in January and they want Ozeki in March. M>M>S>O happened most recently in 1941 and that was a 'standard' 33 win 9-11-13 run. Poor Daeisho sure, but eh, idk if this is a real sumo proverb or not but it sounds like it could capture the jist of one, 'it wasn't the banzuke committee's decision for you to lose those bouts!'

Edited November 30, 2022 by Wakawakawaka

[Gurowake 4,100]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Welcome back! So you think they might be okay with M4-M1-S? They've never included two maegashira basho in a run, but there have been very few cases where it could even have been a possibility (Wakahanada being the most compelling), and in all of them the third basho was at komusubi.

I think it's a function of how badly they want more Ozeki.  While I'm sure they don't want to have to deal with the situation when they may have to forgo a demotion or make a weak promotion in order to get two of them, we really don't know how much they're going to do to make this happen.  The banzuke-making decisions are always a bit fluid and we're not privy to exactly what goes on, and I'm going to guess the eagerness for more Ozeki differs between oyakata.  But in the end all we see are the results, and I don't really recall them ever doing much to explain their decision-making process.

Could they put Takayasu to Sekiwake and then promote him with 10 wins?  It's not against any hard-and-fast rules, so certainly.  I would personally set his target at 12 though, as that 11-4 from M4w should be discounted at least 2 wins - but I'm not on the committee.

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

It does, because if Takayasu is sekiwake, he's not a komusubi, and the most reasonable komusubi candidate to join Kiribayama is the maegashira Kotonowaka, and that alleviates the joi logjam.

To clarify my point: Takayasu's exact placement doesn't matter because they can make Kotonowaka a komusubi regardless. To think about it another way—we've seen these early reports that Kotonowaka will be moved to komusubi, but that has not in any way altered our assumptions of whether or not they're moving Takayasu to sekiwake. So, if the important thing is that they get that extra person into sanyaku to alleviate the mess (to a degree), that's possible regardless of what exactly happens with Takayasu.

[Asashosakari 19,648]

12 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

M>M>S>O happened most recently in 1941 and that was a 'standard' 33 win 9-11-13 run.

To be clear, that was long, long before ozeki promotions began to be determined based on what we would consider the current standards, so the apparent familiarity of anything in that run is a complete coincidence.

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

3 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think it's a function of how badly they want more Ozeki.  While I'm sure they don't want to have to deal with the situation when they may have to forgo a demotion or make a weak promotion in order to get two of them, we really don't know how much they're going to do to make this happen.  The banzuke-making decisions are always a bit fluid and we're not privy to exactly what goes on, and I'm going to guess the eagerness for more Ozeki differs between oyakata.  But in the end all we see are the results, and I don't really recall them ever doing much to explain their decision-making process.

Could they put Takayasu to Sekiwake and then promote him with 10 wins?  It's not against any hard-and-fast rules, so certainly.  I would personally set his target at 12 though, as that 11-4 from M4w should be discounted at least 2 wins - but I'm not on the committee.

Adding on to this, I wouldn't be shocked if their rationale is that, not only do they not want to make a weak promotion, they want to be as confident as possible he'll hold up at the rank. Plus, if he goes 10-10 for wins in the next two bashos, or 11-9, and is sekiwake in the second one, that would be 32 wins, but the M4 11-4 acts as a way to strengthen the argument for his ozeki credentials rather than being a question mark.

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

17 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

It gives the committee more justification and is more in line with precedent if he's Sekiwake in January and they want Ozeki in March. M>M>S>O happened most recently in 1941 and that was a 'standard' 33 win 9-11-13 run. Poor Daeisho sure, but eh, idk if this is a real sumo proverb or not but it sounds like it could capture the jist of one, 'it wasn't the banzuke committee's decision for you to lose those bouts!'

 

3 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

To be clear, that was long, long before ozeki promotions began to be determined based on what we would consider the current standards, so the apparent familiarity of anything in that run is a complete coincidence.

Asa is correct that the example is from too long ago to be relevant now. More over, though, I would strongly advise against looking at anything pre-2004 (when the 42-rikishi top division became the norm) as an example of what we can expect now in terms of decision-making. In many cases, similar situations from ten years ago, or even less, aren't relevant now, but through the 20th century, the way things were handled was just... a lot different.

[Wakawakawaka 157]

Indeed, I did not mean to imply 1941 was relevant in itself, only to point our that to find such an M>M>S>O run you have to go back to the late-triassic period, when Tamawashi was oshi'ing T-rexes into extinction.

[Reonito 1,519]

27 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

To clarify my point: Takayasu's exact placement doesn't matter because they can make Kotonowaka a komusubi regardless. To think about it another way—we've seen these early reports that Kotonowaka will be moved to komusubi, but that has not in any way altered our assumptions of whether or not they're moving Takayasu to sekiwake. So, if the important thing is that they get that extra person into sanyaku to alleviate the mess (to a degree), that's possible regardless of what exactly happens with Takayasu.

Except one way, they're making an extra slot for a 9-6 M1w, which would be against recent precedent, whereas the other way, he goes up naturally (though you could argue that this would go against the Daieisho "precedent")

[Reonito 1,519]

21 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Plus, if he goes 10-10 for wins in the next two bashos, or 11-9, and is sekiwake in the second one, that would be 32 wins, but the M4 11-4 acts as a way to strengthen the argument for his ozeki credentials rather than being a question mark.

10+ in the pre-promotion basho is an absolute requirement as far as I can tell, so 11-9 won't cut it

[Jakusotsu 6,047]

If there was something like Guess The Takayasu, I wouldn't bet on more than 9 wins next basho, if at all.

[Kaito 311]

42 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

To clarify my point: Takayasu's exact placement doesn't matter because they can make Kotonowaka a komusubi regardless. To think about it another way—we've seen these early reports that Kotonowaka will be moved to komusubi, but that has not in any way altered our assumptions of whether or not they're moving Takayasu to sekiwake. So, if the important thing is that they get that extra person into sanyaku to alleviate the mess (to a degree), that's possible regardless of what exactly happens with Takayasu.

The early reports also haven't altered my assumption of whether Kotonowaka is going to komusubi. As far as I know, it was one article, written before the banzuke meeting, where the author made an offhand assumption that Kotonowaka would be komusubi, with no apparent inside information. The article concludes with something to the effect of "Regarding the ranking, (Kotonowaka) said, "I don't know until I wait for the announcement."

My fear is that you'll take that author's assumption as fact, confidently predict Kotonowaka at komusubi, and be right for the wrong reason. I hope credible information does leak this time, but I at least want you to suffer in uncertainty with me for now.

[Barutokai 65]

Well, they should put Takayasu at Sekiwake. Because with bad Rikishi luck
(Shodai not getting KK in January,
Takakeisho MK in January and March,
Hosh. and WTK have only 8-9 wins) they could end up having no Ozeki in May. Back in 2006 (Miyabiyama's time) they already had 5 Ozeki on the Banzuke.

4 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

If there was something like Guess The Takayasu, I wouldn't bet on more than 9 wins next basho, if at all.

Well he seems to be injured again. Idk if he makes it back to Ozeki but at least they should have their cards (that is his rank) right.

[maglor 122]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It does, because if Takayasu is sekiwake, he's not a komusubi, and the most reasonable komusubi candidate to join Kiribayama is the maegashira Kotonowaka, and that alleviates the joi logjam. I guess the question is whether second-order banzuke luck is a thing - i.e. whether someone (in this case Takayasu) has received banzuke luck because someone else (e.g. Kotonowaka, although the lower joi would be equally apt) would be really stiffed otherwise, or because it was a logical implication of someone else's banzuke placement.

I wonder if Takayasu's record this year will sway them one way or another. Daieishō's results prior to his yūshō weren't great: 7-8, 8-7, 11-4 S, 5-10, 10-5, 13-2 YGS. In contrast, Takayasu has two basho out due to COVID, but he's been 6-9, 12-3 DK, 6-9, 11-4 JK (Kin), 12-3 DS. Much better from a yūshō arasoi and sanshō perspective, although the 6-9s undermine this somewhat. Basically, every time he hasn't been knackered, he's been a yūshō factor.

8-7; 11-4; 5-10; 10-5; 13-2 - 46 wins

6-9; 12-3; 6-9; 11-4; 12-3 - 47 wins

I would hope the committee is not swayed by an argument which goes "Every time he wasn't bad, he was good"

[Jakusotsu 6,047]

3 minutes ago, maglor said:

I would hope the committee is not swayed by an argument which goes "Every time he wasn't bad, he was good" 

Isn't that Ozeki standard these day?

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

 

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

10+ in the pre-promotion basho is an absolute requirement as far as I can tell, so 11-9 won't cut it

My bad. 9, then 11 would fit the idea, then, although it would absolutely mean that two of Waka, Hoshoryu, and Shodai have to have losing records and demote next basho. If they were willing to bump Takayasu up in a manner that they haven't done for others recently, I think 10 at komusubi next basho might be the most likely option.

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Except one way, they're making an extra slot for a 9-6 M1w, which would be against recent precedent, whereas the other way, he goes up naturally (though you could argue that this would go against the Daieisho "precedent")

2 hours ago, Kaito said:

The early reports also haven't altered my assumption of whether Kotonowaka is going to komusubi. As far as I know, it was one article, written before the banzuke meeting, where the author made an offhand assumption that Kotonowaka would be komusubi, with no apparent inside information. The article concludes with something to the effect of "Regarding the ranking, (Kotonowaka) said, "I don't know until I wait for the announcement."

My fear is that you'll take that author's assumption as fact, confidently predict Kotonowaka at komusubi, and be right for the wrong reason. I hope credible information does leak this time, but I at least want you to suffer in uncertainty with me for now.

I get what you're both saying, but if they have to cut against a precedent to keep the next banzuke from being impossible to form, right now I think they'd be more likely to go the route that 1) allows them to say, "We only did this to ease banzuke pressure; don't get used to this" and 2) costs them a little less money. If the "news" at hand isn't really news at all, it still doesn't change my baseline approach that they don't hate themselves enough to try and make this banzuke with only seven sanyaku.

[Reonito 1,519]

20 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

costs them a little less money

I'm not sure if I correctly understood what this is referring to, but if it's komusubi vs. sekiwake, they get paid the same

[Sumo Spiffy 579]

57 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'm not sure if I correctly understood what this is referring to, but if it's komusubi vs. sekiwake, they get paid the same

Oh, well, never mind then. I thought sekiwake made more all this time.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy