Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[Jakusotsu 5,981]

7 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

Same procedure as every basho now, another hiramaku yusho for sure.

Or like others say, a paved road for Hoshoryu.

[Fashiritētā 181]

Hoshoryu is showing he has high aspirations, keep that chip on his shoulder.

[Hankegami 537]

My thoughts on Day 2.

I'm glad Takarafuji is still bouncing back. He has a good record against virtually the entire lower Maakuchi so it's difficult to assess how strong he's actually going right now (he was 3-1 against Ichiyamamoto), but from early signs I believe he can even score 10+ from M16e. Aoiyama is another guy who confirmed his good mood into day 2 - I mean, he channeled some Terunofuji with that arm lock. Big Dan is used to deliver a 10+ win once per year, and last time was in Natsu. Perhaps it's that time of his cycle once again. Third, Onosho beats the odds (and Takanosho) and goes 2-0. Two upsets in two days for him - as I said yesterday, looks good. Honorable mention for Tochinoshin, who looked good despite his loss. He's not going to have a particularly easy basho, but a KK is within his reach.

Moving up to the big guys, Midorifuji is frankly impressive. He is increasingly adjusting to the joy, and could make up for a good result this basho. Mitakeumi is somewhat of a surprise, winning over a very in-shape Wakatakakage. Considering he seems to be still concerned by his shoulder, I didn't expect this much at all. Anyway, it's too soon to predict how he will fare for this basho. He went virtually out of steam after Day 5 in Kyushu, so let's adjourn after the first week. Going on, that was a bad day for Shodai, Takayasu, and Takakeisho. The first two in particular appear very helpless. Takakeisho can still bounce up, but in my opinion he just wasted his only permissible black dot slot. If he drops another and gets 13-2Y, I am convinced he will get a Konishiki treatment - try again for Haru. 'Keisho was already refused the rope with a 12-3J 13-2Y back in 2020, and I cannot see the YDC giving a green pass to a same result only because they like the Hamster very much. Both Kisenosato and Terunofuji were promoted with 12-3 + 14-1 combo (26 wins), which alongside Takakeisho's own precedent sets pretty much the standard. In short, 'Keisho screwed up big here.

Least but not last, Hoshoryu keeps cruising high. Kotonowaka is his personal punching - actually throwing - ball so he was expected to win. But man, impressive.

Grand highlight for tomorrow: Mitakeumi vs. Hoshoryu (3-3). Mita used to push the Nephew easy before getting injured, so that's a first important test for Hoshoryu, and to a lesser extent also for Mitakeumi. Not to mention that the winner will lead the 3-0 arasoi for Day 3. Other interesting bouts are Wakatakakage vs. Tobizaru (7-5), with the Monkey always dangerous, and the very even Kiribayama vs. Wakamotoharu (3-3). Rope-hunting Takakeisho gets Daieisho for tomorrow (15-7), a foe who most often pushes out without problems, but Daieisho is having a good start of a basho. And Takakeisho cannot lose anymore.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Hankegami

[Akinomaki 40,604]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Or like others say, a paved road for Hoshoryu.

He's known not to use that but rather the rough path, maybe the first jun-yusho this time, but I'd say rather a yusho in a row for Abi than one for Hoshoryu right now

[Gurowake 4,087]

 

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

No y/o in the lead as usual, and only 1 sanyaku left there, 5 out of 9 win-less.

It's really worse than that.  Only sanyaku with a win against a maegashira so far was Hoshoryu on Day 1.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

17 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

3 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

No y/o in the lead as usual, and only 1 sanyaku left there, 5 out of 9 win-less.

It's really worse than that.  Only sanyaku with a win against a maegashira so far was Hoshoryu on Day 1.

Should have just called M1-M2 Komusubi, and then that problem is solved.

[Leoben 143]

Hoshoryu is completely dialed in, It feels like he's right on the cusp of taking that next step. 

[Akinomaki 40,604]

Suyama has lost 2kg due to the stress of finishing his graduation thesis, 112kg now - from now on he can concentrate on sumo and soon really will be the first rikishi graduated from Todai o

[Tigerboy1966 1,449]

6 hours ago, Leoben said:

Hoshoryu is completely dialed in, It feels like he's right on the cusp of taking that next step. 

Absolutely agree. He has faced two potentially tricky opponents and beaten them in very different ways. He never gave Tobizaru a chance to try any trick stuff by blasting him out with raw power. Then he did something more typical by going to the belt against Kotonowaka and executing a brilliant throw from an awkward-looking set up. He looks like the best man on the dohyo right now and looks like an oven-ready ozeki.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Tigerboy1966
copy edit

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

Takayasu doesn't look right. The neck injury prevented him from fully preparing for Hatsu, and after yesterday's bout he was limping gingerly down the hanamichi. 

Abi, on the other hand, is picking up right where he left off. 

Hoshoryu appears locked in and determined. Barring injury he should be the next Ozeki within the year. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,449]

Takakeisho today gave another example of why he is unlikely to be a yokozuna, and will never make a convincing one. While he has added some versatility he can look completely clueless when Plan A doesn't work. Just avoid getting trampled by the rhino, keep him on the move and wait till he gets gassed or just falls over.

On another point, when he have a demoted ozeki, there are usually lots of comments about his chances of getting the 10 win bounceback. Not much sign of that this time around. People have just given up on Shodai.

 

[Morty 1,495]

7 hours ago, Leoben said:

Hoshoryu is completely dialed in, It feels like he's right on the cusp of taking that next step. 

He looked exactly like this last basho before falling off the cliff and losing three of his last four. At about day five I was convinced it was going to either be Hoshoryu or Takayasu that was going to win it and then the inevitable happened. 

[Gurowake 4,087]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

On another point, when he have a demoted ozeki, there are usually lots of comments about his chances of getting the 10 win bounceback. Not much sign of that this time around. People have just given up on Shodai.

Well, normally they start with a win or two.  But just you wait, he'll get 10 wins eventually.  Just maybe this basho and next combined.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,469]

3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Takakeisho today gave another example of why he is unlikely to be a yokozuna, and will never make a convincing one. While he has added some versatility he can look completely clueless when Plan A doesn't work. Just avoid getting trampled by the rhino, keep him on the move and wait till he gets gassed or just falls over.

There's that left hook of his that catches so many opponents, but Tobizaru was clearly ready for it, keeping his distance, dancing out of range, and swiping at the flailing left arm to finish off Keisho

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Asanoyama's return looking on track.

Tomokaze's isn't, though.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Yeah, you can really feel the effect of the cheering decision in Enhō's bout. And a good job well done too, in the most brawly yotsu match I've ever seen.

[Leoben 143]

8 hours ago, Morty said:

He looked exactly like this last basho before falling off the cliff and losing three of his last four. At about day five I was convinced it was going to either be Hoshoryu or Takayasu that was going to win it and then the inevitable happened. 

Fair. Fingers crossed that this time he manages to keep his cool and go all the way.

[Hankegami 537]

Happy Hatsu 2023 Day 3 to everyone. My usual thoughts.

Down in lower Maakuchi, Takarafuji keeps being convincing at 3-0. Being at his lowest rank since Kyushu 2012 (J1w) is doing wonders. Tomorrow he will face an unconvincing Mitoryu for the first time in their career. I admit I prospect No-Neck Man to go 4-0 easy tomorrow.  Another 3-0 guy down there is Kotoshoho, who is quietly racking up his wins. He didn't even enter my radar (a pre-WW2 thingy) before today. However, Kotoshoho started with a 3-0 also last tournament, and he ended up 7-8. Tomorrow he will face Tochinoshin, who won again today (yay!). Uncle Tochi leads 5-0 in their records, however, so I doubt 'Shoho will go on undefeated after Day 4. Speaking of veterans, Aoiyama is definitively on a roll, although he's another guy with a record of opening with a 3-0 and closing with a MK (6-9 in Nagoya 2022, and even 4-11 on Kyushu 2021). However, he never failed to get his KK after going 4-0. Tomorrow he will face Kagayaki, a difficult foe for him. Their record is 6-4 overall, but it's actually 0-4 in recent matches.

My personal "pay attention to this guy" for these early days, Onosho, got a lucky 3-0 today. Myogiryu threw him down by the rope while remaining in as long as possible (amazing footwork!) but it was still too close for the shimpan. Of course, Onosho won their rematch. Lucky boy could go 4-0 tomorrow as he faces Endo, against whom he won four of their last five matches-up (total 5-7 for Endo, but it was "another" Endo).

Going further up, I was baffled by the evolution of Kiribayama this basho. He went for an oshi fight for the second day in a row against Wakamotoharu. Seems like he decided to go oshi against belt men and yotsu against pushers, which is not a bad idea for itself but it is technically demanding (there's a reason why most rikishi stick with their own style). We're all talking about Hoshoryu here, but this basho could be also Kiribayama's breakthrough. Kiribayama tomorrow will get poor Kotonowaka (5-2), who is prospected to get straight 0-4 given their record. By the way, all three the "non-Kiribayama Komusubi" are getting a rough start with a 0-3 each. The good news is that at least one of them will get a first win tomorrow, thanks to Meisei vs. Wakamotoharu (one precedent, 0-1).

And now let's talk about the main character. Hoshoryu hopped over the Mitakeumi hump and is now leading the 3-0 arasoi. That's an important win since Mitakeumi was not joking at all. However, as many already pointed out, the Nephew opened with a 3-0 also in Kyushu yet failed to grab the Cup. Anyway, on Day 4 he went 3-1 last time, so if he gets 4-0 tomorrow it could be a first sign things are a-changing. Anyway, he's still on a good track to end 10+, which remains very useful for his Ozeki run. In these early days, the anti-Nephew appears defending champion Abi, who is also 3-0. Tomorrow the Strangler will face the Lord of Chaos himself. Shodai unexpectedly won against Kotonowaka today, so watch out for him because he's still dangerous. On the other hand, Abi leads 4-0 in their recent encounters.

Last lines for the GOOFs. Takayasu did not only lose against a very in-form Tamawashi but also fell badly down the dohyo. Forget about his 0-3 starting, I am worried for his health now. At this point, I have a feeling that his very Sekiwake status (and Ozeki bid altogether) will not hold past Hatsu. Rope-hunter Takakeisho won a long old school oshi match against Daieisho but didn't look overly convincing to me. His tachi-ai power remains underwhelming, although the Hamster showed an unexpected amount of stamina. While this means that Takakeisho is likely (IMHO) to get his classic 10 wins, I cannot really see him lifting the Cup ATM.

Now, the highlights for tomorrow: my pick is the musubi no ichiban, Mitakeumi vs. Takakeisho (12-11). This is a crucial test for 'Keisho as it was for Hoshoryu. Mitakeumi is clearly going strong ATM, and he also leads their most recent confrontations 4-2. If 'Keisho does not push hard and Mita goes freight train on him, his Yokozuna bid enters a high risk area. He started out 2-2 both in Kyushu (12-3DD) and Aki (11-4J). While they are good result for themselves, it's bad news for his bid. As I wrote yesterday, 'Keisho with a 13-2Y would be likely asked for another strong performance in Haru, same for a 12-3 or a jun-yusho in general. On the other hand, Takakeisho started out convincingly both times he won the Cup (6-0 start in Kyushu 2018, and 8-0 in Kyushu 2020; paradoxically, he went even 9-0 in Kyushu 2021 only to drop three in the final days and get 12-3J). Another highlight is certainly Tamawashi vs. Hoshoryu (3-5). The Nephew leads with a 1-4 on recent precedents, but the Old Fox is in a good form and could pull off an upset. The Maegashira 2 guys are proving to be quite a hump in this basho.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Hankegami

[Akinomaki 40,604]

On 08/01/2023 at 10:44, Akinomaki said:

The yakitori sale in the kokugikan shops went kyujo for likely 4, 5 days due to a Corona cluster in the facility in Iwate that puts the meat on the sticks. There is enough for sales at Tokyo station and by the chaya in the kokugikan. https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2023/01/08/kiji/20230108s00005000305000c.html

Anybody can order some in advance by phone from the chaya, so ardent fans of this kokugikan specialty still can have a nicer sumo experience, now that limits on eating at the seats were dropped.

Yakitori sales in limited numbers are already back for day 3 - as usual in sumo, they gambarize to return quicker than called for

o

Edited January 10, 2023 by Akinomaki

[RabidJohn 1,793]

Takayasu took a disturbingly long time to get up from yet another bad fall today. Looked totally dazed when he went back to his cushion...

Musubi no ichiban was a proper brawl, wasn't it? I was quite impressed by both Takakeisho's stamina and his 'new trick' to finish: right-hand tsuki instead of left.
I just can't see him earning a rope, but it won't be for lack of trying. He never seems to keep anything in reserve.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Aoiyama yūshō anyone?

Jokes aside, at least the top end of the banzuke finally looks like they belong there, with Mitakeumi and Shōdai now out of the way. Takakeishō and Wakatakakage may have dropped a bout each but high rank isn't a guarantee of infallibility, and they're looking pretty in form otherwise. Hōshōryū seems to be the one to watch this basho, not just because of the result but also because he keeps the game face on even in the hanamichi, which is interesting.

0-3 to start - looks like Takayasu's New Year resolution of a calendar grand slam is out the window, and we're not even halfway through January yet.

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

Going further up, I was baffled by the evolution of Kiribayama this basho. He went for an oshi fight for the second day in a row against Wakamotoharu. Seems like he decided to go oshi against belt men and yotsu against pushers, which is not a bad idea for itself but it is technically demanding (there's a reason why most rikishi stick with their own style).

Kiribayama's sumo has been very gradually improving over the past two years, but this tactical flexibility might just take him over the edge with how one-dimensional most rikishi are today. His sumo today was very Tamawashi-like. As long as things go to plan at the tachiai and he doesn't fall back on instinct into yotsu against a better belt person (e.g. Wakatakakage going to ottsuke against Terunofuji), things should go alright. Off the top of my head maybe the only people who can do both well are Hōshōryū, Takayasu, and Mitakeumi.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 537]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Aoiyama yūshō anyone?

Jokes aside, at least the top end of the banzuke finally looks like they belong there, with Mitakeumi and Shōdai now out of the way. Takakeishō and Wakatakakage may have dropped a bout each but high rank isn't a guarantee of infallibility, and they're looking pretty in form otherwise. Hōshōryū seems to be the one to watch this basho, not just because of the result but also because he keeps the game face on even in the hanamichi, which is interesting.

0-3 to start - looks like Takayasu's New Year resolution of a calendar grand slam is out the window, and we're not even halfway through January yet.

Kiribayama's sumo has been very gradually improving over the past two years, but this tactical flexibility might just take him over the edge with how one-dimensional most rikishi are today. His sumo today was very Tamawashi-like. As long as things go to plan at the tachiai and he doesn't fall back on instinct into yotsu against a better belt person (e.g. Wakatakakage going to ottsuke against Terunofuji), things should go alright. Off the top of my head maybe the only people who can do both well are Hōshōryū, Takayasu, and Mitakeumi.

Well, if Mita doesn't turn his engine off for week 2 he could bounce up to san'yaku. And God knows what Shodai is going to do. I would wait for their intai to call them out definitively.

About Takayasu, I always take rikishi boasting big things just as playing a much-demanded "positive rikishi" character. Shodai was exactly criticized by the press for being a "negative rikishi". Takayasu wants a Yusho to his name - an open secret -, but a rikishi must be always more ambitious than ever, so of course he boasted a claim to every 2023 yusho. It's just like every newcomer aiming to Yokozuna, or literally everyone boasting to aim for Yokozuna. To this extent, Hoshoryu was more himself in (yesterday's?) post-basho interview where he substantially said "I have my goals but I don't want to talk about them yet". I am totally sure that he is set to damage everyone's pretty duckies really, really bad, but he's too much of a good guy to say that out loud. At the moment.

Anyway, I am not that knowledgeable about fighting styles in the past (I am a 2021 newcomer to sumo, after all), but there are certainly very few "switchers". Takayasu is a certified yotsu-on-demand guy with a penchant for long matches on the belt. Mitakeumi is mostly an oshi guy to me, he often grabs the front mawashi to keep his victim () put but his bad record against most belt guys makes me think he isn't a grand belt gamer. Hoshoryu is evolving right now but throughout most of 2022 he suffered oshi attacks really bad. Another name can be Ichinojo, a yotsu wrestler with a 220 kg push option. Another guy with belt training and a big frame good for pushes is Kotonowaka, but he's not standing out very much ATM. Two greenhorns with strong oshi-yotsu switch potential are Oho and Atamifuji, two big belt gamers à la Ichinojo. In general, I'd say that the oshi-yotsu switch is a typical characteristic of very strong rikishi and Yokozuna in particular (Terunofuji, anyone?). Takakeisho refusing to try even a Mitakeumi-style frontal maemitsu grip is a strong limit of his to my eyes. Also, as you pointed out, Wakatakakage has a poor oshi luggage which worries me as a grand WakaBro fan. On the other hand, Ichinojo had once Yokozuna prospects, and Takayasu is a top gun whether healthy, I'd say even the strongest after Terunofuji were not for his choking habits.

Back to Kiribayama, I can see Kakuryu's coaching behind his novel oshi-zumo. The 71st Yokozuna made no mystery about his expectations on Kiribayama, but that's the first time I can relate with him. I admit Kiribayama has never been a favorite of mine, mostly because he appears as an underwhelming guy to me. His lack of sansho after his Hatsu 2020 debut (Fighting Spirit) probably contributed to put him out of my not-so-sophisticated radar. Glad to be proved wrong, though.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Hankegami

[WAKATAKE 2,660]

I have to say that I’m actually impressed with the quality of the sumo I’ve seen so far. Hopefully this Carries the rest of this week and into week 2!

[Yamanashi 3,861]

1) It was great to hear the shouts again when the bow-twirler did his foot-stamping.

2) What's the over-under on which bout in this basho the announcers start referring to Okinoumi as "Kimigahama Oyakata"?

[hakutorizakura 629]

Dammit the basho is on already?? I have missed 3 days, hope my oyakata won't get punished for this. I shall gambarize and hurry to Kinta-san's video (after I put the kids to bed, that is)