Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[Seiyashi 4,072]

25 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I plenty agree, but there's a reason why there are talks about Asanoyama being promoted for Haru: many believe he can win out. Most of the other candidates cannot simply provide a similar perspective. My argument is that the NSK could benefit from having Asanoyama back in Maakuchi for Haru as a sort of "final test" more for Takakeisho than for himself. Don't get me wrong: I am not suggesting they should facilitate his promotion, make him jumping ranks, or over-demote people. If he give them a chance to promote him, the Committee should take it up IMHO, for the good of sumo.

I don't know that it's a belief in him so much as it's recognising the fact that a rikishi of his skill and strength is likely to clean house against lesser opposition, and he actually has a chance to do it - but his margin for safety just disappeared with today's loss. You might well see some similar sentiments should Ochiai make his sekitori debut next basho, and if we had been around for Baruto or Tochinoshin, you would have seen something similar. 

Which leads me on to the broader point that I'm not sure what you're trying to say because it appears tautological to me. Good rikishi go up and bad rikishi go down. That's how the sport is structured overall, so the best rikishi put the most bums in seats. Most of the time some new chap rising up through the ranks has an unknown ceiling, but in this case we all know exactly how good Asanoyama is so it's like looking into the future - but that shouldn't influence banzuke rankings any more than a newbie to the rank. To flip it around, Terunofuji arguably ticks those same boxes that Asanoyama does, and he stayed in jūryō after a 13-2. Skill ceiling has nothing to do with instant performance, which is all that decides banzuke placement; just because we know the skill ceiling of a rikishi shouldn't change how we assess his banzuke prospects to be based on his performance from basho to basho. Knowing his skill lets us better guess what his result might be, but it doesn't change what his result actually is at the end of the day.

[Hankegami 439]

1 minute ago, Seiyashi said:

I don't know that it's a belief in him so much as it's recognising the fact that a rikishi of his skill and strength is likely to clean house against lesser opposition, and he actually has a chance to do it - but his margin for safety just disappeared with today's loss. You might well see some similar sentiments should Ochiai make his sekitori debut next basho, and if we had been around for Baruto or Tochinoshin, you would have seen something similar. 

Which leads me on to the broader point that I'm not sure what you're trying to say because it appears tautological to me. Good rikishi go up and bad rikishi go down. That's how the sport is structured overall, so the best rikishi put the most bums in seats. Most of the time some new chap rising up through the ranks has an unknown ceiling, but in this case we all know exactly how good Asanoyama is so it's like looking into the future - but that shouldn't influence banzuke rankings any more than a newbie to the rank. To flip it around, Terunofuji arguably ticks those same boxes that Asanoyama does, and he stayed in jūryō after a 13-2. Skill ceiling has nothing to do with instant performance, which is all that decides banzuke placement; just because we know the skill ceiling of a rikishi shouldn't change how we assess his banzuke prospects to be based on his performance from basho to basho. Knowing his skill lets us better guess what his result might be, but it doesn't change what his result actually is at the end of the day.

Sorry, I probably spaced out too much. What I wanted to say is that Asanoyama does not certainly have many friends within the NSK after his blunder. In a normal situation, I would expect the Committee to be strict with him and keep someone in Maakuchi up instead than giving him a spot already. He's down enough to be overlooked, after all. But this basho is making me to realize that we would really benefit from him getting up already. That's all. Put this alongside my worries about Takakeisho, and you will understand why I am posting all over the place.

I really should calm down.

[Reonito 1,387]

13 hours ago, Faustonowaka said:

Third straight day 11 loss for Asanoyama

So was that bad tactics, bad technique, lack of power ... ? It seems like an ex-Ozeki should be able to beat a career Juryo guy when they both get their favored stance, and yet Asanoyama seemed to have no offense to speak of.

[Raishu 207]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

It seems like an ex-Ozeki should be able to beat a career Juryo guy when they both get their favored stance, and yet Asanoyama seemed to have no offense to speak of.

Well, that's the point here.

Asanoyama was in a disadvantageous position after the tachiai, while Daishoho was able to get a double grip right away. You can see Asa grabbing Daishoho's sagari with his left hand and only had a firm grip with his right. When he tried to get his left in, Daishoho moved forward and the ex-Ozeki couldn't turn things around anymore. Classic bout of "lost it at the tachiai" - which can also happen to an ex-Ozeki in Juryo.

[Godango 973]

I think Takakeisho's losses can be explained away as acceptable should he win the basho. He lost to a komusubi, and an M1e who was komusubi last tournament. That's not earth shattering stuff even in a Yokozuna basho. In fact, looking at the six-basho era:

Yokozuna v. Komusubi
1435 bouts (excluding fusen)
Komusubi Wins: 255
Yokozuna Wins: 1180

Ergo, Komusubi beat Yokozuna roughly 1 in 6 bouts.

Yokozuna v. Maegashira #1
1408 bouts (excluding fusen)
Maegashira #1 Wins: 249
Yokozuna Wins: 1159

Likewise Maegashira #1 beat Yokozuna roughly 1 in 6 bouts.

Not terrible, from a pure results perspective if Takakeisho goes on to yusho, especially 13-2, I can see these not being held against him. We're talking about 1 kinboshi. For context:

Yokozuna	Basho Entered	Kinboshi	Kinboshi/Basho
Terunofuji	7	12	1.71
Kisenosato	8	18	2.25
Kakuryu	30	33	1.1
Harumafuji	29	41	1.41
Hakuho	74	26	0.35
Asashoryu	39	26	0.67
Musashimaru	22	26	1.18
Wakanohana III	8	18	2.25
Takanohana	38	39	1.03
Akebono	39	35	0.9
Asahifuji	8	12	1.5
Onokuni	17	20	1.18
Hokutoumi	24	21	0.88
Futahaguro	9	8	0.89
Takanosato	13	11	0.85
Chiyonofuji	53	29	0.55
Mienoumi	7	10	1.43
Wahanohana II	25	27	1.08
Kitanoumi	59	53	0.9
Wajima	46	39	0.85

I'd have kept going but the db started disliking me at this point.

At any rate, average of 1.15 kinboshi per basho; median of 1.05. Takakeisho's losses so far really shouldn't factor into anything. How he finishes the next 4 days will be all that matters IMO.

That said, a 'reasonable' objection to Takakeisho so far is that he hasn't had the extended run of dominance we've seen in the prior two comparable runs. He's achieved, yes, with his two yusho and several doten/jun-yusho -- but not at the same strike rate as others. I personally don't see why that matters though if he takes the yusho here; it's quite literally two yusho/equivalent if he pulls it off. But we know how the powers that be can think.

[rhyen 1,826]

Any word on yoshinofuji? He had a bad concussion and the emergency protocol was activated and wheeled out on a gurney?

[Katooshu 3,182]

Azumaryu first makuuchi KK in 10 attempts 

[Kaninoyama 1,718]

Hard to see Takakeisho getting promoted to Yokozuna after today's performance even if he goes on to get the yusho.

[Godango 973]

1 hour ago, Kaninoyama said:

Hard to see Takakeisho getting promoted to Yokozuna after today's performance even if he goes on to get the yusho.

A 12-3Y I'd say is still an outside chance, but yeah, I don't see it happening. Hopefully he can at least extend his run with a doten minimum. 

[jalil_the_swan 25]

Azumaryu is finally kachikoshi 10 years after his Makuuchi debut. 

[RabidJohn 1,729]

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Azumaryu first makuuchi KK in 10 attempts 

This fact alone points to this being another of those topsy-turvy basho.
I mean, Onosho with sole lead after day 10...

[wooden chair 1]

This is the year of Kiribayama and Azumaryu

[Akinomaki 40,158]

58 minutes ago, Godango said:

A 12-3Y I'd say is still an outside chance, but yeah, I don't see it happening. Hopefully he can at least extend his run with a doten minimum. 

No chance, Sadogatake said "If you look at the way he lost these 2 days ..." http://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/251493

Tospo titles: promotion annihilated

Another tomoesen, with this time an Onosho yusho?

[Akinomaki 40,158]

I wanted to post this Tuesday, well

Special day on the 17th: the day of the anniversary of the Hanshin Awajii great earthquake is the day Terutsuyoshi was born near the epicenter, his 28th birthday was also his 800th appearance on the dohyo, unfortunately he went makekoshi on this day, after a gyoji sashi-chigae reversal. 3rd year in a row he lost on his birthday, he used to mostly win then in the past. o

After that a Shodai performance, if he wins 2 more, his sekitori rank is safe, maybe 1 win is enough-

For Wakamotoharu and his brothers it was the death anniversary of grandpa Wakabayama, whose top rank Wakamotoharu has reached now,  the 3rd win in a row for him that day, after a dismal 0-3 start this basho. o

Now unfortunately he started losing again and both brothers are at 6-6

[Akinomaki 40,158]

I think Hoshoryu should have been content with reaching his goal to win one more and stay in sanyaku as komusubi - this long bout today should have aggravated his injury. Maybe the big kensho pack of the 2nd to last bout was tempting him as well as the desire to get a kachikoshi and stay sekiwake.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Leo C 52]

As the announcers mentioned, this is the third basho in a row Asanoyama has beaten Shonannoumi (and I assume stopped his yusho chances although I haven't checked the previous results). He looked visibly frustrated after losing. It is very funny how the guy has been doing great and getting promoted but Asanoyama's always there to ruin his day  Hopefully this keeps going

[Koorifuu 924]

The Overzealousness sansho goes to ex-Tochinonada, who suddenly decided he had a bone to pick with Kotoyusho and Higonoumi.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

42 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

The Overzealousness sansho goes to ex-Tochinonada, who suddenly decided he had a bone to pick with Kotoyusho and Higonoumi.

What'd he do?

[Koorifuu 924]

6 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

What'd he do?

Called two matta for a presumed failure to have all hands on the deck (literally) when both guys were actively brawling on equal terms on both.

The first call was really weird. Higonoumi's hands went down enough for there to be a realistic possibility that he did indeed punch the ground, and they went at each other just fine.

The second matta was dubious and would be OK if it wasn't for the immediate precedent, as Higonoumi's hands looked an inch too high, but they were already going at each other again.

[Kaninoyama 1,718]

11 hours ago, wooden chair said:

This is the year of Kiribayama and Azumaryu

Don't know about Azamaryu, but Kiribayama could very easily sneak into the "next-Ozeki" slot with his steady improvement and consistent showing in Sanyaku. 

[Jakusotsu 5,885]

5 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

11 hours ago, wooden chair said:

This is the year of Kiribayama and Azumaryu

Don't know about Azamaryu, but Kiribayama could very easily sneak into the "next-Ozeki" slot with his steady improvement and consistent showing in Sanyaku. 

I think they were referring to the Age of Azumarius.

[Yamanashi 3,788]

2 hours ago, Kaninoyama said:

Kiribayama could very easily sneak into the "next-Ozeki" slot

Don't jinx the poor devil!

[Yamanashi 3,788]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

I think they were referring to the Age of Azumarius.

I can always count on you for a mystic, crystal revelation.

[808morgan 805]

On 16/01/2023 at 19:48, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I'm not so fond of Takakeisho's sumo so I'd grumble a bit if he took the rope, but on the flip side I really want to see the first banzuke in sumo history without a true ozeki on it.

I am with you there, but I don't care about the banzuke. He's totally one dimensional and a long time Ozeki but he isn't a Yokozuna to me. 

[808morgan 805]

On 18/01/2023 at 13:23, Reonito said:

So was that bad tactics, bad technique, lack of power ... ? It seems like an ex-Ozeki should be able to beat a career Juryo guy when they both get their favored stance, and yet Asanoyama seemed to have no offense to speak of.

Yeah, I am not really a fan but I want someone else to get in there and give Takaken$ho some competition, he has it pretty easy compared to all the past years with great Yokozuna and Ozeki. We need some consistently formidable people in there.