Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[Akinomaki 40,601]

On 27/12/2022 at 13:45, Kintamayama said:

"We will make an effort to return to allow cheering as it was before the virus," said Shibatayama PR manager today. Whatever that means. 

For once it means cheering with the mask on, so not quite as it was before. In addition another step back to normal: so far drinking alcohol at the seat was limited to 1 bottle per person, this and all limitations on food will be dropped. But the demand for eating and drinking in silence remains. http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2022/12/27/kiji/20221227s00005000404000c.html

[kedevash 43]

Here we go, my predictions for this new year basho

Favorites :

- O -Takakeisho => Not less than 10 wins in the last 3 basho, a Kettei-sen and a jun-yusho. Can a trophy bring him in the conversation for yokozuna. H will be in the mix for victory for sure.
- S - Wakatakakage => If he wins early he can get on a roll. He has the potential two win his second yusho but like the past basho, if he loss early he can be let behind.
- S - Hoshoryu => The pressure caught him in the last days in Kyushu, but with this experience he can now adjust and last for a whole basho. Time to be on top now.
- S - Takayasu => He will eventually win one, right? Right?... 2 Yusho dôten and 5 other Jun-yusho... And on an Ozeki run. He can do it, but can his head stay cool enough?...

Contenders

- K - Kiribayama => he was never part of the race for the yusho but his improvements are there. And with some good wins early he can compete for the yusho or for a special prize
- K - Kotonowaka => Early this year he proved he can win double digit. His style when he is on can bring him to the mix for the yusho.
- M1 - Daieisho => He already won one yusho and in may he got the Jun-Yusho. As a pusher-truster all he has to do his to get in rhythm. But the competition know him well now.
- M3 - Abi => Of course Abi is on everybody's radar now. But he will face all the top rankers and the story will not be the same. Can he keep rolling?


Sleepers

- S - Shodai => Can his quest to regain ozeki can bring fire in him. I don't think so, his head seems to be elsewhere and the departure of Yutakayama will not help.
- K - Meisei => I'm sure he can win more than 10 and be in the mix with the top dogs. As a Komusubi the start of the basho will be brutal.
- M2 - Mitakeumi => I have to include Mitakeumi in this group. He seems to be off, but everybody know what he can do on a doyho, and if uninjured he can shin again.
- M2 - Tamawashi => The veteran can win for sure. But the years are pilling up, and his last chance his coming closer now.
- M4 - Nishikifuji => I have the feeling, this guys can go to the top. Can it already be his breakthrough basho?
- M8 - Oho => I'm maybe optimistic with his boost up the banzuke, but the last basho may have make him grow mentally and he knows that he has what it takes now.

[Jakusotsu 5,981]

Any word on Terunofuji's condition? Will he be sitting out for sure?

[Akinomaki 40,601]

23 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Any word on Terunofuji's condition? Will he be sitting out for sure?

The kyujo regular announcements are tomorrow, no news on him at all this year so far, later today maybe. The latest info was Dec. 28th, the trainer tells that recovery is going well, he can do the basics, but he wants to go for a 15-0 or won't enter, so rather not this time. https://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/249489

[Pitinosato 120]

What about Takayasus Condition ? 

After that Hit in te Play off ?

Does anybody know ?

[Akinomaki 40,601]

12 minutes ago, Pitinosato said:

What about Takayasus Condition ? 

After that Hit in te Play off ?

Does anybody know ?

We know that he's fit enough to aim for 6 yusho this year

On 31/12/2022 at 00:40, Akinomaki said:

Takayasu prepares to go for 6 yusho next year as promised, only Asashoryu did this so far, in 2005 - 35 bouts with Kaishin, Kojikara and others to finish keiko for the year

o

[nelimw 80]

How is Mitakeumi doing health-wise? Is he ready for action?

[Akinomaki 40,601]

29 minutes ago, nelimw said:

How is Mitakeumi doing health-wise? Is he ready for action?

Mitakeumi after keiko today said he wants to reset and devote himself more to sumo - the basics and tachi-ai checks with makushita was his training. He showed in his movement that he's still worried about the injured right shoulder, but "I can move it again"  https://www.47news.jp/news/8774240.html

He won't go kyujo - at least not from the start

[Akinomaki 40,601]

Now sole head of the shimpan department Sadogatake about Takakeisho's chance for yokozuna promotion: "I can't say anything about it at the moment." He wants Takakeisho to fulfill his duties as the sole ozeki (and no yokozuna at the basho). The YDC had announced they'll put the promotion on the agenda with a high level yusho. o

Wakatakakage and Wakamotoharu go for the first ever same time kachikoshi of brothers in lower/plain sanyaku in the 4th try: Waka-Taka 1 were not sanyaku at the same time, Waka-Taka II had only Haru 92 together like this, Sakahoko and Terao failed 2 times, Haru 89 and Kyushu 90

o

[Akinomaki 40,601]

If Takayasu gets his 3rd jun-yusho in a row, with say another 12 wins, that would give him 35 wins in 3 basho, and if he keeps his promise and goes 11D->12D-->13Y, with 36 it would be more than appropriate to promote him to ozeki right away, Asashosakari had hinted at a promotion with even 10 wins after last basho.

On 30/11/2022 at 19:07, Asashosakari said:

Putting Takayasu at sekiwake would be the complete opposite of a sentimental decision. He's by far the most credible candidate to "fix" the ozeki shortage at the moment with his 23 wins against (mostly) joi opposition. 10 more wins, committee points to the fact that (unlike Miyabiyama way back when) his first tenure was actually pretty good and only ended due to injury, done. Facilitating that potential development by shuffling him up to sekiwake now would be entirely pragmatic.

Gurowake wants 12.

There were no cases like this after the war, and only the last was in a 15 bouts per basho era - Futabayama is among those who made it http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form2_rank=m&form3_rank=s&form4_rank=o

- we already have a banzuke like 2 centuries ago

No poll for this?

[Akinomaki 40,601]

With Isegahama out as top shimpan, deputy department head Fujishima will be regular head shimpan again, the other deputy Kumegawa after a full kyujo is back to duty. https://www.sanspo.com/article/20230106-WBYPZGSMHVLKFFE24HOPQC5QDE/

Edited January 6, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 40,601]

On 05/01/2023 at 11:40, Akinomaki said:

The latest info was Dec. 28th, the trainer tells that recovery is going well, he can do the basics, but he wants to go for a 15-0 or won't enter, so rather not this time.

There is no recent case of a yokozuna to (nearly) fully recover and go on with his career after 3 kyujo, the last was Akebono  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&n_basho=4&form1_rank=y&form1_wins=0-7&form2_rank=y&form2_wins=0&form3_rank=y&form3_wins=0

After the kyujo announcement, speculations increase in the social media about Terunofuji's intai in the near future, he complained of pain in the knees on the 3rd and that was it https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200026615 - he had stopped training after less than 10 training bouts and couldn't do keiko on consecutive days, no sign of recovery going well. https://www.sanspo.com/article/20230106-UJ7W7NF5C5ILVFXPXWU2F7WNCU/

Edited January 6, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Yarimotsu 583]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

If Takayasu gets his 3rd jun-yusho in a row, with say another 12 wins, that would give him 35 wins in 3 basho, and if he keeps his promise and goes 11D->12D-->13Y, with 36 it would be more than appropriate to promote him to ozeki right away, Asashosakari had hinted at a promotion with even 10 wins after last basho.

Gurowake wants 12.

There were no cases like this after the war, and only the last was in a 15 bouts per basho era - Futabayama is among those who made it http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form2_rank=m&form3_rank=s&form4_rank=o

- we already have a banzuke like 2 centuries ago

No poll for this?

For comparison, I slightly modified your query to see who has actually won more than 10 bouts in 3 consecutive basho at M,M,S.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=s&form3_wins=>9

All were forced to stay at sekiwake for the next basho. Takanosato with 12J, 13J followed by 11 wins not making O in 1981 is both the most recent and most comparable. I think that's pretty unfair and also not recent enough to be a good precedent.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

53 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

For comparison, I slightly modified your query to see who has actually won more than 10 bouts in 3 consecutive basho at M,M,S.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=s&form3_wins=>9

All were forced to stay at sekiwake for the next basho. Takanosato with 12J, 13J followed by 11 wins not making O in 1981 is both the most recent and most comparable. I think that's pretty unfair and also not recent enough to be a good precedent.

Any opinion on whether the paucity of the top ranks has any bearing on Takayasu's chances? There were still three very strong yokozuna when Takanosato had his run. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Akinomaki 40,601]

Dohyo matsuri as usual live in about 7 hours

[Asapedroryu 235]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

There is no recent case of a yokozuna to (nearly) fully recover and go on with his career after 3 kyujo, the last was Akebono  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&n_basho=4&form1_rank=y&form1_wins=0-7&form2_rank=y&form2_wins=0&form3_rank=y&form3_wins=0

Wouldn't Kakuryu be consider as well? Ok, he did show up for the 1st 3 days in 07/17 (also coming from a 4 day show up in 05/17) and then sit out 09/17 & 11/17. Then went on with a 11-4, 13-2Y and 14-1Y

[Reonito 1,469]

3 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

All were forced to stay at sekiwake for the next basho. Takanosato with 12J, 13J followed by 11 wins not making O in 1981 is both the most recent and most comparable. I think that's pretty unfair and also not recent enough to be a good precedent.

What's unfair? That his M12 basho didn't count in an ozeki run?

[maglor 122]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

There is no recent case of a yokozuna to (nearly) fully recover and go on with his career after 3 kyujo, the last was Akebono  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&n_basho=4&form1_rank=y&form1_wins=0-7&form2_rank=y&form2_wins=0&form3_rank=y&form3_wins=0

After the kyujo announcement, speculations increase in the social media about Terunofuji's intai in the near future, he complained of pain in the knees on the 3rd and that was it https://npn.co.jp/article/detail/200026615 - he had stopped training after less than 10 training bouts and couldn't do keiko on consecutive days, no sign of recovery going well. https://www.sanspo.com/article/20230106-UJ7W7NF5C5ILVFXPXWU2F7WNCU/

Kakuryu? After 4 kyujo he came back to get 8 double digit performances and 3 yusho, fully half of his career total. I don't think anyone is expecting Terunofuji to have 20 more bashos of strong sumo, the question is whether he has a Kakuryu-like end to his career or if he'll never put up a good score again and is done by end 2023.

Though I agree in that I'm not overly optimistic. Teru's had such a strong run from his return to the end of 2021 that I think we all forgot a little bit just how bad his knees were. I just ca't see him recovering. Maybe one more yusho if he's lucky.

Edited January 6, 2023 by maglor

[Benevolance 2,501]

On 05/01/2023 at 04:49, Akinomaki said:

We know that he's fit enough to aim for 6 yusho this year

Pretty clearly Takayasu is still suffering from that hit to the head.

[Yamanashi 3,860]

46 minutes ago, Benevolance said:

Pretty clearly Takayasu is still suffering from that hit to the head.

We'd know for sure if he'd said he's going for 7.

[Gurowake 4,087]

8 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Gurowake wants 12.

As if what I want matters at all.  They clearly are open to promoting him to Ozeki due to his nonstanard Sekiwake promotion, but if they haven't said anything about a target what I and others say can only be speculation.  I also anticipate that how well he performs regardless of outcome will matter just as much as outcome, so setting a specific target is somewhat irrelevant.

[Yarimotsu 583]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

What's unfair? That his M12 basho didn't count in an ozeki run?

Perhaps unfair is the wrong word. I'll add that all 4 of these guys did make Ozeki in short order after these runs - not immediately for Takanosato, but his record afterwards would not have demoted him from Ozeki until the point he actually gained the rank. Hindsight may be 20/20, but they could have promoted him there and it wouldn't have been a wrong decision. It's obviously a rare and difficult feat. M,M,K with 10+ in each is actually an interesting query too: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=k&form3_wins=>9&columns=5 Just 3 results and none as strong. M,M,M with 10+ has been done 3 times recently and 3 times long ago, one of which is Yoshibayama from our earlier MMS query. Goeido and Yoshikaze had 34 and 33 wins respectively over these basho, but they were all maegashira basho, and none of these guys except Yoshibayama remained in the sanyaku long after. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=m&form3_wins=>9&columns=7

 

[Reonito 1,469]

36 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

Perhaps unfair is the wrong word. I'll add that all 4 of these guys did make Ozeki in short order after these runs - not immediately for Takanosato, but his record afterwards would not have demoted him from Ozeki until the point he actually gained the rank. Hindsight may be 20/20, but they could have promoted him there and it wouldn't have been a wrong decision. It's obviously a rare and difficult feat. M,M,K with 10+ in each is actually an interesting query too: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=k&form3_wins=>9&columns=5 Just 3 results and none as strong. M,M,M with 10+ has been done 3 times recently and 3 times long ago, one of which is Yoshibayama from our earlier MMS query. Goeido and Yoshikaze had 34 and 33 wins respectively over these basho, but they were all maegashira basho, and none of these guys except Yoshibayama remained in the sanyaku long after. http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=4&form1_rank=m&form1_wins=>9&form2_rank=m&form2_wins=>9&form3_rank=m&form3_wins=>9&columns=7

 

IIRC that stretch by Yoshikaze is the only 33+ wins over 3 basho in Makuuchi in the modern era by someone who never made Ozeki

[Kaninoyama 1,797]

On 05/01/2023 at 21:36, Pitinosato said:

What about Takayasus Condition ? 

After that Hit in te Play off ?

Does anybody know ?

He appeared on the NHK New Year's sumo special with Kitanofuji and Mainoumi, and he seemed fine. The three held a "special council" to help him get over the yusho hump and he appeared in good spirts, not the least because of a video message from his wife showering him with "I love yous!" (rare for a Japanese wife to be so open with their affection). 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Kaninoyama

[Benihana 1,929]