Hatsu 2023 discussion (results)

[Wakawakawaka 154]

Takarafuji .vs. Tochinoshin - Is double fusen a thing? What happens?

Onosho would be the worst poker player in history - really wears his emotions. He looks absolutely sullen when he loses and arrogantly swaggers after every win. This tournament though, very different. He's looked aggravated/bitter after every bout. Wonder what that's about?

[Reonito 1,469]

21 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Takarafuji .vs. Tochinoshin - Is double fusen a thing? What happens?

Yes, both get a fusen loss—there were a few in July.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,274]

Well, if they know the other guy isn't going to show up, they could show up and get the free win then go kyujo. But then the other guy could think the same thing.

Hmm quite a prisoner's dilemma

[Yarimotsu 583]

14 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I got the impression Takarafuji had either dislocated or broken a finger. Whatever it turns out to be, it looked like the pain just took his attention away from the match.
Then there was Tochinoshin's arm or shoulder, which wasn't apparent to me until he was over the tawara. They are up against each other tomorrow. Double fusen?

I would be very surprised to see Takarafuji pull out as I'm pretty sure he has some kind of consecutive bouts stretch to protect. More likely to see a retirement than a rest day at this point. That's actually why I picked him high up for UDH this basho.

[Godango 996]

43 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

I would be very surprised to see Takarafuji pull out as I'm pretty sure he has some kind of consecutive bouts stretch to protect. More likely to see a retirement than a rest day at this point. That's actually why I picked him high up for UDH this basho.

 

43 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Well, if they know the other guy isn't going to show up, they could show up and get the free win then go kyujo. But then the other guy could think the same thing.

Hmm quite a prisoner's dilemma

That answers that. 

Any news on what the injury is (I'm yet to scroll up so forgive me if it's there). If it's some kind of muscle tear you'd have to imagine that's it for the Georgian.

Dislocated left shoulder confirmed via yahoo news (https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/57efd1906e74cc962d178d094e8558f270dbfbf3). Two weeks recovery required.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Godango

[Reonito 1,469]

With 2 wins from M11, that's a trip to Juryo for sure.

[Rocks 1,809]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

With 2 wins from M11, that's a trip to Juryo for sure.

He'll come back in 5 days and mop up a few wins. 

[Seiyashi 4,097]

Two ōicho-less sekitori fighting in jūryō (Kinbōzan and Tochimusashi). That can't be too common.

[Seiyashi 4,097]

8 hours ago, Katooshu said:

Many of you have probably seen this match between them before, but for anyone who hasn't.

Yoshi, Otsuji, Wakanosho, and Hanafusa were in the tournament as well.

 

That was Mitakeumi sitting on the chair in the background, right? Honestly, it looked as good as sekitori matches in ozumo.

21 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

I'll say this again; this forum tends to underestimate Hokuseiho's strength just because he looks languid while using his 2m sumo. He's consistently been able to withstand barrages from people who can rarely be stopped once they get going - this time it was Kinbozan.

What's the most successful rikishi with such a defensive style? Of current sekitori the only one I can think of is Takarafuji; historically the only wild guess that pops to mind is "Mr Ippun", the elder Kotonowaka.

[Katooshu 3,247]

Ozeki Takanonami, with similar dimensions to Hokuseiho, was of the same ilk, often standing upright and withstanding hard charges before eventually turning the tables. This seems more common among the very tall rikishi who can reach over their opponent and grab their belts. Baruto would often win in this fashion too, though he wasn't as defensive in general.

There's a touch of it in Teru as well. Although he's capable of blasting opponents out, he often wins long matches where he essentially just holds his ground for a while then heaves the opponent out. I'd also say Shodai has done a lot of defensive sumo, and while he's obviously fallen reaching ozeki is still quite the achievement. 

To make it work at the top level consistently you have to be extremely strong. I have no doubt Hokuseiho will establish himself in makuuchi, but whether he becomes a regular in the elite ranks of the division is more of a question for me.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Katooshu

[Hankegami 537]

31 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Ozeki Takanonami, with similar dimensions to Hokuseiho, was of similar ilk, often standing upright and withstanding hard charges before eventually turning the tables. This seems more common among the very tall rikishi who can reach over their opponent and grab their belts. Baruto would often win in this fashion too.

Very tall rikishi with yotsu training. Akebono - the actual first guy that pops up to everyone's mind when we talk about "tall rikishi" - was formed as an oshi wrestler and used an Abi-like nodo-wa as his primary attack. Anyway, there are still some important differences between Takanonami and Baruto on one side, and Hokuseiho on the other IMHO. Takanonami was an arm-lock expert. Baruto was bull strong and lifted and jeeted and threw his opponents. Hokuseiho still sticks to yorikiri, which uses the wrestler's pushing force. Hokuseiho standing there creates no pushing, so he exclusively relies on his weight alone. That's good enough for most situations (he's still 170 kg), but he's going to hit Maakuchi soon. How on earth it is going to work on, let's say, Mitakeumi? The guy pushes like a shinkansen (when he's ok). And good luck on moving Ichinojo by inertia. What IMHO Hokuseiho lacks is an actual counter-attack, that is a movement generating force on its own.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Hankegami

[Katooshu 3,247]

I think Mitakeumi's stamina has dropped considerably. He can still do a hard initial charge, but if you resist that and get him to a standstill he doesn't have nearly as much energy as he once did.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,097]

It feels like until we get a few more ōzeki, we're going to see the same old faces rotate in and out of sanyaku as they have on and off bashos. Daieishō looks to be a decent bet to get back komusubi next basho, as is Abi (if he doesn't get punted to sekiwake like Takayasu last basho). Tamawashi is also fighting well. GTB this basho looks to be very similar to last round, with many of the same problems and considerations.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Bunbukuchagama 732]

So, is Abi our Lord and Saviour? Conventional wisdom says "Abi steamrolls low- to mid-Maegashira but is mediocre against sanyaku", but he is absolutely crushing it right now.

It looks like "Takakeisho-Hoshoryu-Daieisho-Abi" is our list of contenders. Unless you are a Kotoshoho yusho believer, of course. 

[RabidJohn 1,793]

Watching Abi go 5-0 today had me wondering: has any rikishi ever won back to back makuuchi yusho as a hiramaku? 

[dingo 1,265]

Following up from the oshi vs yotsu discussion, Ryuden perfectly showed how deal with an oshi specialist. Very few of them have a response to a good mawashi grip, even a running-hot Onosho. See also today Sadanoumi vs Hokutofuji. 

Tobizaru really surprised with a wily henka against Kiribayama of all rikishi. Somewhat unexpected to see Kiribayama fall for it, but it was deliciously executed. Is Tobizaru going to be Aminishiki's successor? In my mind he has at least the wily expression down pretty well 

Shodai is sadly just... broken, don't have a better word for it. Since last basho even more than usually, and quite sadly so. I've always thought he has the specs for a great ozeki, it just doesn't materialise anymore.

Takayasu is unfortunately going in a reverse direction of his own admittedly overblown goals. Seems pretty clear he's not physically well enough to compete this basho.

Hoshoryuu still falls into the trap of trying to beat an opponent on his strong points, not his weaknesses. Must've been pretty clear that Daieisho is on fire this basho yet Hoshoryuu still attempts to outpush him. Stubbornness? Nerves? Need to show off? Should've learned from Ryuden today. 

Takakeisho showed strong nerves throughout the 4 matta. I guess it also helped that Tamawashi is not the henkaing type.  

[dingo 1,265]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

What's the most successful rikishi with such a defensive style? Of current sekitori the only one I can think of is Takarafuji; historically the only wild guess that pops to mind is "Mr Ippun", the elder Kotonowaka.

Out of current rikishi Ichinojo fits the bill almost perfectly (when he's fit). 

[Koorifuu 1,003]

3 hours ago, Katooshu said:

I think Mitakeumi's stamina has dropped considerably. He can still do a hard initial charge, but if you resist that and get him to a standstill he doesn't have nearly as much energy as he once did.

I find myself quoting you a lot, but that's a testament to just how I often I'm in agreement with those posts. Mitakeumi's (and Shodai's) post-viral stamina issue is something I've already breached a few times here.
When their performance levels fell off a cliff, both chalked it down to the mental side, but IMHO it's perfectly normal that your mood goes down when you are suddenly and inexplicably unable to do the things you used to. Plus, they were never the most resolute people ever, which would've been mitigating.

I'd also slightly attribute their (mostly Mitakeumi's) refusal to chalk it down to the virus's consequences to ozumo's whole 'gambarize, my body is fine' spirit.

----------

Here's my rationale for why I don't want Takakeisho to grab the rope:

In ten years, it'll be much more benefitial to ozumo if people look back at this period and think "Oh boy, ozumo sure was in the doldrums at that point, but then Rikishi X rose like a hero and established himself amongst the all-time greats", than it would be if they thought "Ah yeah, that period was a bit s$%#, wasn't it? This small dude who avoids mawashi much more desperately than he avoided the plague, who could rarely be trusted to be a clear yusho favourite, made yokozuna and is now a huge outlier amongst those venerable names."

-----------

On the other hand - having watched Ochiai, and his crew cut, just demolish a very worthy ms15 while restricted to an unfamiliar kind of sumo made me hope for another appearance of mullets in the very top bouts. A mulleted Ichinojo henka'ing Kakuryu into a kinboshi on his 5th career basho - now that was iconic.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Faustonowaka 130]

29 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Watching Abi go 5-0 today had me wondering: has any rikishi ever won back to back makuuchi yusho as a hiramaku? 

No, but if Abi does it it I wonder if they’ll promote him to Ozeki

[Akinomaki 40,601]

It took 5 days till the last sanyaku dropped out of the lead and the ozeki still only one behind, not a bad start for the year. Abi still in the lead is a pleasant surprise, seems he lost the urge to party. And Enho doing well in juryo - so far I'm delighted with this basho.

[Leo C 52]

12 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

FWIW the impression in my household is that Takarafuji's arm went limp after something pretty bad happened to it and the finger bit was that he was softly trying to hold his arm in place - not anything finger specific. 

She was right about Takayasu last time, let's see now.

That's a very observant comment. The only comment in my household after an entire day of sumo was "big tits!" in reference to Kotonowaka. 

[Jakusotsu 5,981]

17 minutes ago, Leo C said:

The only comment in my household after an entire day of sumo was "big tits!" in reference to Kotonowaka. 

So they missed yusho-bound Aoiyama?

[Seiyashi 4,097]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

1 hour ago, Leo C said:

The only comment in my household after an entire day of sumo was "big tits!" in reference to Kotonowaka. 

So they missed yusho-bound Aoiyama?

Four tits good, two tits bad. 

Until two tits better, that is. 

Yes, that was an Animal Farm reference.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,097]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

In ten years, it'll be much more benefitial to ozumo if people look back at this period and think "Oh boy, ozumo sure was in the doldrums at that point, but then Rikishi X rose like a hero and established himself amongst the all-time greats", than it would be if they thought "Ah yeah, that period was a bit s$%#, wasn't it? This small dude who avoids mawashi much more desperately than he avoided the plague, who could rarely be trusted to be a clear yusho favourite, made yokozuna and is now a huge outlier amongst those venerable names."

'Tis a bit harsh on Takakeishō, no?

In the past three years of his ōzeki tenure he's had a yūshō honour (YDJ) rate of 33%. If you count his ōzekiwake basho, then he's now 7 honours in 22 basho, which is only slightly under 33%, at 31.8%.

That's a big number for at least two reasons:

1. Based on his ōzeki lifetime numbers up to Natsu 2022, Takakeishō was only at 23.5%. So he's now taken it up a notch to be a yūshō contender in 1 in 3 basho, versus 1 in 4.
2. With last basho's result, he's now beaten (if only so slightly) the all-time leader, Kirishima, who had 31.3%.

(The numbers may be a bit off as I'm just doing a quick eye check, but even if they are, they shouldn't be off by that much - the decimal place, maybe.)

So at least purely from the perspective of ōzeki guarding yūshō, Takakeishō has acquitted himself extremely well by historical ōzeki-only standards (i.e. comparing against rikishi who capped out at ōzeki). And even by other metrics, his last year has actually also been pretty decent. Other than Hatsu, he's had no more kyūjō or kadoban, and he's hit double-digit KKs half the time. Not only is it an improvement over his previous lifetime rate of 35%, that last year average is also approaching the lifetime rate of the top few ōzekis in that regard, with Kotokaze, Kirishima, and Asanoyama hitting 59%, 56%, and 57% respectively. If he were to retire now he would definitely be considered an above-average ōzeki, maybe even in the top quartile of ōzeki.

I'd say Takakeishō gets dunked on a bit for having a sumo style that doesn't look like it'll be fit for yokozuna, but as an ōzeki he's been all that sumo could reasonably expect of an ōzeki (not you, Mitakeumi or Shōdai) between Hakuhō's retirement and Terunofuji now looking shaky. Hopefully he remains injury-free until reinforcements like Asanoyama, Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, or Abi can arrive. As someone else put it (can't recall who offhand), the hand-wringing over the current ōzeki is their lack of yokozunability, but that's not a fair metric to judge them by all the time, nor is it within their control that they are fighting in a sengoku period.

Even if he were to be promoted to be compared against other yokozuna while ōzeki, 31.8% is a bit low by yokozuna-as-ōzeki standards but not anomalously. It is true that that number puts him in the company of people like Terunofuji, Kisenosato, Wakanohana III and Ōnokuni, who aren't really considered the highlights of the rank from pure yūshō numbers, but that's not really shameful company either for a variety of reasons. What he does after he gets the rope is a different question, but he surely can't be worse than Kitao/Futahaguro, and there are plenty of yokozuna who have retired with only one more championship to their name.

(Sotto voce, and I apologise if this sounds like gloating, but I'm really glad I did that thread now because we finally have the numerical perspective to back opinions up with.)

Edited January 12, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 537]

G'day everyone. My usual two cents:

Today's results came mostly as predicted, with few upsets and most races going on as expected. Perhaps a relative upset was Onosho's loss to Ryuden despite his 5-3 advantage by precedents. Ryuden managed to control the entire bout and yorikiri'd Onosho with ease. GG. Another candidate is Takayasu losing a wearing out battle (Takayasu, of all people!) against Kotonowaka. Four Tits was good at breaking Papa Bear's hold on his mawashi and putting the match back to an oshi battle. Takayasu seemed fit enough, but his results are not going the way most hoped for. A last upset was Hoshoryu's loss to Daieisho despite their 4-2 record for the Nephew. As many pointed out, Hosh was naive to chase an oshi battle against a Daieisho on fire, although he actually managed to push him on the rope with his initial charge. Anyway, he dropped one. Pretty sure that Takakeisho popped a bottle of costly Brut this night.

Now, two lines about the people on the "bad boys" list for Day 5. Mitakeumi is clearly out of gas, as @Katooshu already pointed out. He was played out by Wakamotoharu when he had pushed out brutally his similarly built brother a few days before. His pattern is similar to his 4-1 start in Kyushu, and his results are even worse. Shodai is directly without engine, moving his body car by foot like Fred Flintstone. The way Meisei played him out (despite their 4-9 precedents) was baffling. Last, non-Mitakeumi Wakatakakage is suffering from oshi wrestlers again. Everyone talking about how ripped he looked this basho, and out he goes with all his muscles and gymbro look. Ruined Ozeki run #4 (I think), here we come!

Anyway, tomorrow is another day, and an interesting one on top of that. Everyone is surely looking out for the musubi no ichiban, Abi vs. Takakeisho (5-2). This is particularly interesting, since the Hamster won his last back in Hatsu 2020. Since then, Abi always won their face-off. Unless wily Takakeisho goes for a henka (remember, the Hamster is much faster than he looks), Abi has a real chance to go 6-0 and consolidate himself as the front-runner. This would be meaningful especially in the likely event that Midorifuji vs. Hoshoryu (5-1) makes the Nephew to drop another one. He won their last encounter, but the little green man got the upper hand in all their previous five encounters (anyway, "little green man"... should we nickname Midorifuji as the Elf? ). However, true connoisseurs are actually waiting for the grand clash between the two real favorites of this tournament, Onosho vs. Aoiyama (7-7). Perfectly balanced record, at it should be. Onosho has his chance to bounce back, while Aoiyama could emerge as the real man to beat. Breast milk for everyone in case of Yusho parade!

Edited January 12, 2023 by Hankegami