Ozekis and Yokozunas for January 2024 - Feast or Famine?

[Jejima 1,345]

2023 will start with just two names in the top ranks!

Please leave your actual prediction for the top two ranks for the January 2024 in the comments below, like this....

Yoda      Y1  Darth Vader
R2D2     Y2
Chewbacca   O1   Princess Leia
                        O2   Hans Solo

etc

- then we can see who came the closest at the end of the year.

Previous polls:

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012 - not polled
2011
2010
2009
2008

[Wakawakawaka 146]

Yay I am first to vote.

Terunofuji Y

Takakeisho O Hoshoryu

I think the poll may need reformatting? Question 3 split my vote 50/50 for the Ozeki. It seems misleading as. 1/1 (or 100%) of votes so far have Takakeisho as Ozeki.

[Tsubame 359]

-                    Y       -

Hoshoryu    O     Wakatakakage

 

I dont think that Terunifuji survives banzuke-wise the next year. And Takakeisho will lose this Ozeki rank somewhen in 2023.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Tsubame

[just_some_guy 263]

Terunofuji Y

Takakeisho O Hoshoryu

Abi O

[Ack! 445]

Terunofuji Y

Takakeisho O Hoshoryu

[sumojoann 1,262]

- - - - - - - Y - - - - - -

Abi - - - - O - - - - Hoshoryu

Much as I admire Terunofuji, I feel like it's inevitable that his body (or critical parts he needs) will give out soon.  I predict he will come back from his recent surgery and compete and maybe even win a Yusho but will be kyujo for Nagoya.  He might even attempt to fight at Kyushu but will suffer a serious injury that will cause him to go kyujo again before Day 15.  At that point, he will finally give up the battle and will reluctantly retire by the end of 2023.

Abi has a lot going for him, not all of it positive, in my mind.  He has a very strong "killer" instinct and has been very successful doing his own brand of sumo, which consists of using his height and amazingly long arms to get at the neck of his opponents and strangle them!  He is so quick and confident that his opponents don't seem to be able to counter his attacks.  I see him going as far as Ozeki sometime in 2023.  Just hope he doesn't get injured (those supporters on  both his elbows concern me).

Hoshoryu keeps improving all the time and I'm amazed at his versatility and technical skill.  He is also highly driven to prove himself to Uncle.  He knows what it takes to succeed and is very very serious about winning.  His leg trips are amazing.  He will be promoted to Ozeki by the end of 2023.

I lack confidence in Takakeisho.  He has generally managed to avoid injury but boy, when he's injured, he doesn't seem very resilient to me.  He looks intimidating and that left paw of his is amazing.  I DON'T want to jinx him, but I worry that he will suffer an injury that will ultimately cause him to lose his Ozeki rank sometime in 2023.  I pray that I am wrong.

Neither Shodai (mentally) nor Mitakeumi (mentally and possibly physically) are in any shape to regain their Ozeki ranks in 2023 or probably ever.

There are several other interesting up-and-comers but it's such a BIG LEAP to get to Ozeki that I don't see it happening in time for the January 2024 banzuke.  I'm impressed with Wakamotoharu who seems to be catching up with his bro, Wakatakakage, whom I had high hopes for after his Yusho.  Wakatakakage seems too inconsistent to be an Ozeki contender, though.  Maybe in 2024 he'll achieve it.  That sibling rivalry will push both of them.  Takanosho looked soooo promising a year ago.  A very good rikishi, a very nice guy from what I've heard, but something must be wrong.  Injury?  Nishikifuji impressed me.  New guy in Makuuchi but calm and confident.  Oho promising but inconsistent.  Kiribayama earned an impressive 11-4 in his Makuuchi debut and won a special prize, and though he has had some amazing Ozeki-worthy bouts, I don't see him as an Ozeki on the January 2024 banzuke.

Okay, y'all please forgive my stream-of-consciousness babble.  This is what's actually going on in my brain!

[sumojoann 1,262]

EDIT TO ADD THIS MESSAGE -- I THINK I HAVE MESSED UP THE VOTE COUNT BY MAKING A SECOND POST RATHER THAN EDITING MY FIRST POST TO ASK ABOUT THE YOKOZUNA-OZEKI SITUATION.  IF I HAVE CAUSED A PROBLEM, LMK BY PRIVATE MESSAGE AND I WILL EDIT MY FIRST POST AND DELETE THIS POST.  (THE VOTE COUNT SHOWS 6 BUT IN REALITY ONLY 5 HAVE VOTED).

I have to say, I'm very confused about this concept of "Yokozuna-Ozeki."  Does this mean that there would never be a situation where there would be 2 Ozeki but NO Yokozuna?  Would the O-East automatically become a Yokozuna-Ozeki?  When would there be a situation where there would be NO Yokozuna but TWO Yokozuna-Ozeki?  Do I have to change my answer to show that Abi would be Yokozuna-Ozeki?  What about Hoshoryu?  Thanks!

Edited December 8, 2022 by sumojoann

[Godango 973]

I'm going all in on the nephew.

Hoshoryu Y1  Terunofuji
Takayasu O1   Takakeisho

[Kyokufuji 61]

 - - - — Y — - - -

Hoshoryu — O — Wakatakakage

[Hankegami 439]

Short answer:

Terunofuji Y -

Takakeisho O Wakatakakage

------------------ O Hoshoryu

Long answer:

Predicting how things will be more than one year from now requires more magical thinking than rationality. This is especially true for Yokozuna runs, since several holders of the rank had a sudden epiphany while in the San'yaku (Akebono) or even after a good while at Ozeki (Harumafuji, Kakuryu). No one is showing an Akebono-style epiphany, i.e. suddenly placing 10+ results over 1992 resulting in a successful Yokozuna run after Hatsu 1993. Many are looking at Hoshoryu, but the Nephew blatantly lost the Kyushu Yusho race by losing in a row to Oho, Takakeisho, and Abi, that is his direct rivals for the trophy.

However, before talking about #74, a word about #73. Recently Terunofuji mentioned he'd like to join the Haru 2023 Jungyo (here) perhaps implying he does not expect himself to be ready for the honbasho one month before. This would put his comeback to Natsu 2023, with three basho off and some good time to heal up. This encourages me to think he will be still around by Hatsu 2024, and will go intai at some point that year.

Now, let's play "who will get Yokozuna?". After a quick look at past records, I believe we can divide past Yokozuna into three categories. First, one-generation talents (Taiho, Kitanoumi, Takanohana, Asashoryu, Hakuho) that literally plow up the ranks and get the rope at 21-22 years old. Second, middle-career "awakened" talents, that is people literally exploded at 24-26 years old and rocketed up san'yaku after many 8-7 at Maegashira (Chiyonofuji, Akebono). Third, "late bloomers" and actually the vast majority of Yokozuna. They spent a long time both as lower san'yaku and Ozeki before getting two back-to-back Yusho at 28 years old or older. Some end up racking up a fine collection of Yusho afterwards, especially if they have a lot of gas left in their tank (Musashimaru, Harumafuji). Others are just as not as lucky.

Now, we have no evident Type 1 candidate at the moment, not that could get to Yokozuna for Hatsu 2024. The only Type 2 I can see is Hoshoryu, who is actually in a fine position to follow the example of Akebono. However, his presumed "awakening" basho now in Kyushu showed he still has a way to go (he badly lost three of his four final bouts against direct contenders for the cup). I am not very confident. A sketchy Type 2 could be Wakatakakage, just turned 28 but career-wise closer to Hoshoryu. However, Wakatakakage is just as fluky as Harumafuji and Kakuryu were, and I can see him sitting some time at Ozeki before getting a good run for the rope.

As for Type 3, we have three candidates: Takakeisho, Takayasu, and Asanoyama. Takakeisho is the most obvious - he's actually on a run for the rope and he is a long-serving Ozeki. At 26, he's actually young for being defined a late-career veteran, but his frequent injuries beg to differ (see Hokutoumi). The problem with 'Keisho is that he seems the same old Hamster who already busted his previous runs in a grand fashion. I like my Hamster, but I prospect him to perform poorly at Hatsu and sit at O1e until intai (I would be glad to be wrong though). Takayasu is surprisingly not mentioned by anyone here. Barring injuries (well, already a big "if") he's on track to choke his way back to Ozeki and - given the present level of the joy - even to get promoted à la Kisenosato after his first Yusho. I'd love this scenario very much, but news about his neck does not bode well. I fear he will end up like Mitakeumi and go down the joy very soon. Third, Asanoyama is back in town, that is Juryo, this Hatsu and could return to Maakuchi let's say for Natsu 2023 possibly alongside Terunofuji. That's not enough time to get up to Yokozuna by Hatsu 2024, however, and likely neither to Ozeki. He will be most probably Sekiwake or so.

This for Yokozuna. The Ozeki rank will surely get some more movement. Takakeisho is granted for me. Takayasu is a question mark, but probably will get way down anyway. Wakatakakage should get his run right at some point, and I am positive Hoshoryu could do the same. Other candidates are outside bets. Kiribayama is well-prospected to get Sekiwake especially if the upper guys Ozeki up. Same for Kotonowaka. Both of them, however, have given unimpressive results and I am under the impression they need more time to build up their case for Ozeki. Abi and Ryuden are san'yaku level for me, so I count them out although I see that Abi got good supporters after his yusho. Other young hopefuls . Nishikifuji, Oho, Hokuseiho, Kinbozan - have too much of a way to go to get somewhere as high in only one year. That's it.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Hankegami

[WAKATAKE 2,644]

Takakeisho Y Terunofuji
Hoshoryu O Kotonowaka
Takayasu O

[Kyokufuji 61]

On 18/12/2022 at 14:06, WAKATAKE said:

Takakeisho Y Terunofuji
Hoshoryu O Kotonowaka
Takayasu O

This deserves bonus points for boldness.

What a year it would be if it ended like this!

[Morty 1,483]

I think Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka will get that generational rivalry going which will drive them both to ozeki level, and I think Kiribiyama will also sneak into an Ozeki position as well. I think this will be assisted by Terunofuji not appearing for more than a couple of bashos

[Yangnomazuma 77]

Terunofuji Y

Takakeisho O Hoshoryu

 

I'm on the fence for Wakatakakage but thinking he'll fall short.  As for Abi, will his new-found attitude propel him higher?  Again, he'll find his wall.

[Shatsume 116]

Terunofuji Y

Hoshoryu O1 Takakeisho 

Kotonowaka O2 Takayasu 

[Asapedroryu 227]

Y Takakeisho

O1 Hoshoryu - Wakatakage O1

O2 Asanoyama

[Jejima 1,345]

Takakeisho Y Terunofuji
Wakatakakage O Kiribayama

[Athenayama 996]

Terunofuji     Y1
Takakeisho   O1  Hoshoryu

[Jejima 1,345]

Poll closed.

About three-quarters (18) of us think that neither Terunofuji nor Takakeisho will retire or get demoted this year.

That same 18 think that Terunofuji will remain as Yokozuna, with 20% of players thinking that Takakeisho will join him at the top.

Hoshoryu is easily the favourite to be promoted to Ozeki this year, with honourable mentions Wakatakakage and Takayasu.

[Jejima 1,345]

Well, both Terunofuji and Takakeisho kept their ranks, as predicted by two-thirds of us.

Two-thirds of us also correctly predicted that Takakeisho would be ranked as Ozeki. However, out of those 18,  only Wakawakawaka, Hakuryuho, just_some_guy, Ack!, Kaito, Hankegami, ChickyStarr, Sumo Spiffy, Kashunowaka, Shatsume, I am the Yokozuna, Churaumi and Athenayama predicted that no one else would rise to the rank of Yokozuna, so only those count as getting as getting Question 2 fully correct.

The Ozekis for January 2024 will be Takakeisho, Kirishima (Kiribayama) and Hoshoryu.

Only Jejima got Kiribayama correct.

Poll takers who got Takakeisho and Hoshoryu correct, with no other incorrect Ozekis were Wakawakawaka, Hakuryuho, Ack!, Kaito, Kashunowaka and Athenayama.

So the yusho is between Wakawakawaka, Hakuryuho, Ack!, Kaito, Kashunowaka and Athenayama.

To the comments!

Hakuryuho, Kaito and Kashunowaka did not make comments, and so are out of the running.

Wakawakawaka has the two Ozekis in the wrong order - as do Ack! and Athenayama.

So, let's go by time stamps, and award the yusho to @Wakawakawaka . Jun-yusho to be shared by @Ack!  and @Athenayama .

Edited December 2, 2023 by Jejima