Banzuke for Hatsu 2023

[Akinomaki 40,761]

Fukushima celebrates the 2 Onamai sanyaku with a gogai (newspaper special) and a banner at the city hall

vid vid

The parents are happy - father Onami: I didn't expect the 2 to get to sanyaku that quick

o

The mayor: next both at ozeki

[FantasyBasho 111]

I think everyone may be missing the overall ramifications for 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. The schedule is going to get very weird. I wrote up some of my thoughts at my website: https://www.fantasybasho.com/post/on-the-hatsu-2023-banzuke

[Asashosakari 19,648]

It's not like any particular overall weirdness manifested itself in November when both the banzuke and the cast of active participants didn't look much different from this time. It's just another 9-man sanyaku if Terunofuji's absent again and will be scheduled accordingly, with at most a few more degrees of freedom when it comes to which intra-sanyaku matchups they'll hold back for late in the tournament. No witchcraft needed.

Takakeisho will probably be getting (or at least be started off with) an ersatz yokozuna style schedule, much like last time and like he did back in Hatsu 2021 as the highest-ranked of three ozeki behind absent Hakuho and Kakuryu, too.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

11 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

"Dad, these suits aren't made for squatting!"

[Gurowake 4,100]

On 27/12/2022 at 14:24, FantasyBasho said:

I think everyone may be missing the overall ramifications for 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. The schedule is going to get very weird. I wrote up some of my thoughts at my website: https://www.fantasybasho.com/post/on-the-hatsu-2023-banzuke

I think this is the only relevant line:

"In addition to who may face each Sanyaku opponent, there is another complication for scheduling. Usually, the Yokozuna will begin the basho by facing the Komusubi. When there are four Komusubi and a Yokozuna who is likely kyujo, the usual schedule patterns won’t happen. Don’t assume the Komusubi and upper Maegashira will have the easier second weeks among the top men. "

I really don't understand what you're trying to say here.

Judging from last tournament, they will still have roughly the same number of intrasanyaku matches each day as usual, and they will still have the top-ranked maegashira face the sanyaku who are not facing other sanyaku.  That much didn't change last basho, and I don't see why it would now.  The lowest ranked Komusubi and highest ranked maegashira will be the first ones to have their sanyaku matches done, so that nominally means that their later matches will be easier, especially if they're not doing well.  If they do end up doing well, the second week matches may end up being harder based on the current record of their opponents, but not by current rank.

 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

In short, it's not weird just because the banzuke doesn't have only 2 of each sanyaku rank.

Sumo would have broken down a long time ago if the NSK were that hapless.

[Oshirokita 192]

On 27/12/2022 at 11:24, FantasyBasho said:

I think everyone may be missing the overall ramifications for 4 sekiwake and 4 komusubi. The schedule is going to get very weird. I wrote up some of my thoughts at my website: https://www.fantasybasho.com/post/on-the-hatsu-2023-banzuke

You (and anyone interested) can always test your theories about torikumi scheduling of the sanyaku by playing the Guess the Kiribayama torikumi game over in the Games subforum.

[Jejima 1,414]

On 25/12/2022 at 22:41, Koorifuu said:

As in you believe it should be like ozeki, where they're ordered by their results on the previous basho? It feels like they're treating sekiwake, first and foremost, the same as toriteki. Nobody gets a demotion with a KK. A KK sekiwake will NOT fall down the order.

I'm rather annoyed with this....

So, if W5A manages to go 8-7, 8-7, 8-7 ad infinitum, he would always be ranked at S1E - with the torikumi that goes with it etc, even if (say) Hoshoryu goes 12-3 this current basho, Hoshoryu would remain at S1W, despite being an excellent candidate for Ozeki promotion in March?

How about if Takayasu wins this yusho 14-1 or 15-0, and W5A and Hoshoryu, both finish 8-7, would Takayasu remain at S2E???? 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Jejima

[RabidJohn 1,855]

37 minutes ago, Jejima said:

So, if W5A manages to go 8-7, 8-7, 8-7 ad infinitum, he would always be ranked at S1E - with the torikumi that goes with it etc, even if (say) Hoshoryu goes 12-3 this current basho, Hoshoryu would remain at S1W, despite being an excellent candidate for Ozeki promotion in March?

How about if Takayasu wins this yusho 14-1 or 15-0, and W5A and Hoshoryu, both finish 8-7, would Takayasu remain at S2E???? 

That's about the shape of it, yes. I'm sure I remember Takayasu getting promoted to ozeki from S1W because the lower scoring but still KK Mitakeumi had the S1E slot.

[Hankegami 537]

24 minutes ago, Jejima said:

I'm rather annoyed with this....

So, if W5A manages to go 8-7, 8-7, 8-7 ad infinitum, he would always be ranked at S1E - with the torikumi that goes with it etc, even if (say) Hoshoryu goes 12-3 this current basho, Hoshoryu would remain at S1W, despite being an excellent candidate for Ozeki promotion in March?

How about if Takayasu wins this yusho 14-1 or 15-0, and W5A and Hoshoryu, both finish 8-7, would Takayasu remain at S2E???? 

Although I agree that treating lower san'yaku the same as Maegashira is ungenerous (I mean, they cannot demote them altogether with a KK anyway), this is somewhat unimportant for the Sekiwake rank. The most damaged rank is Komusubi, since getting K1e gives precedence in case of an open Sekiwake spot. Access to Ozeki is simply not the same, as you can get it as long as you hit 33 at Sekiwake, no matter where are you placed within the rank.

Your examples make that evident. Both Hoshoryu and Takayasu are current Ozeki hopefuls (Wakatakakage being a perennial dark horse). With good scores, them both would get Ozeki after Haru anyway. On the other hand, leaving WTK at S1e gives him recognition for seniority (getting KK at Hatsu would bring his KK string to nine basho in a row) no matter how good any newly-promoted Komusubi performed in Hatsu or any following tournament. Kicking WTK down to S2 for Haru would make him dangerously exposed to lose the S1e spot for Natsu to another contender. This makes no difference at a practical level, but is nonetheless a good consolation prize (especially if he keeps playing he Mitakeumi impersonator and ends up being jumped over for Ozeki promotion by most of his colleagues at the rank).

In conclusion, this system is in my opinion ok for Sekiwake, but bad for Komusubi. Ideally, they should be treated differently exactly because the rules of engagement are totally different. But I'm not part of the Banzuke Committee, for everyone's enormous relief, so I'm just rambling here.

[Tochinofuji 387]

24 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Although I agree that treating lower san'yaku the same as Maegashira is ungenerous (I mean, they cannot demote them altogether with a KK anyway), this is somewhat unimportant for the Sekiwake rank. The most damaged rank is Komusubi, since getting K1e gives precedence in case of an open Sekiwake spot. Access to Ozeki is simply not the same, as you can get it as long as you hit 33 at Sekiwake, no matter where are you placed within the rank.

Your examples make that evident. Both Hoshoryu and Takayasu are current Ozeki hopefuls (Wakatakakage being a perennial dark horse). With good scores, them both would get Ozeki after Haru anyway. On the other hand, leaving WTK at S1e gives him recognition for seniority (getting KK at Hatsu would bring his KK string to nine basho in a row) no matter how good any newly-promoted Komusubi performed in Hatsu or any following tournament. Kicking WTK down to S2 for Haru would make him dangerously exposed to lose the S1e spot for Natsu to another contender. This makes no difference at a practical level, but is nonetheless a good consolation prize (especially if he keeps playing he Mitakeumi impersonator and ends up being jumped over for Ozeki promotion by most of his colleagues at the rank).

In conclusion, this system is in my opinion ok for Sekiwake, but bad for Komusubi. Ideally, they should be treated differently exactly because the rules of engagement are totally different. But I'm not part of the Banzuke Committee, for everyone's enormous relief, so I'm just rambling here.

Does K1E really give that much priority? My DB skills are non-existent, but consider November 2005:

K1E: Kyokutenho 8-7

K1W: Hakuho 9-6

For January 2006, Hakuho took the open sekiwake slot, while Kyokutenho remained at K1E. So the priority may only matter insofar as east and west get the same record and there's only one slot available. Which is something in terms of priority for sure, but not enough to warrant treating them differently I wouldn't say.

Entirely agree with you that it doesn't really matter for sekiwake to ozeki given that the promotion criteria is independent (based on the one rikishi's performance alone) rather than comparative (based on how you did vs. how those around you did as well). 

[Akinomaki 40,761]

2 hours ago, Jejima said:

On 25/12/2022 at 23:41, Koorifuu said:

As in you believe it should be like ozeki, where they're ordered by their results on the previous basho? It feels like they're treating sekiwake, first and foremost, the same as toriteki. Nobody gets a demotion with a KK. A KK sekiwake will NOT fall down the order.

I'm rather annoyed with this....

So, if W5A manages to go 8-7, 8-7, 8-7 ad infinitum, he would always be ranked at S1E - with the torikumi that goes with it etc, even if (say) Hoshoryu goes 12-3 this current basho, Hoshoryu would remain at S1W, despite being an excellent candidate for Ozeki promotion in March?

That is just the present fashion, I guess they'll return to usual some day

On 28/11/2022 at 21:19, Akinomaki said:

I checked, they started to do this Haru 2017, I never noticed that change, reorder was a fix rule since I started watching sumo in 1988. Tamawashi stayed on the east with 8 wins while Takayasu had 12 on the west. Later yusho winner Tamawashi was kept on the west, with Takakeisho jun-yusho on the east.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=5&form1_rank=s&form1_wins=8-15&form2_rank=s

[Kaito 311]

3 hours ago, Jejima said:

I'm rather annoyed with this....

So, if W5A manages to go 8-7, 8-7, 8-7 ad infinitum, he would always be ranked at S1E - with the torikumi that goes with it etc, even if (say) Hoshoryu goes 12-3 this current basho, Hoshoryu would remain at S1W, despite being an excellent candidate for Ozeki promotion in March?

How about if Takayasu wins this yusho 14-1 or 15-0, and W5A and Hoshoryu, both finish 8-7, would Takayasu remain at S2E???? 

Nagoya 2018, Mitakeumi's 13-2 yusho from S1W was good enough to swap with 8-7 Ichinojo. So there is a limit.

[Hankegami 537]

3 hours ago, Tochinofuji said:

Does K1E really give that much priority? My DB skills are non-existent, but consider November 2005:

K1E: Kyokutenho 8-7

K1W: Hakuho 9-6

I didn't explained myself well there, sorry. Of course a K1W gets the spot with a better score, but K1E has precedence in case of a same score. Same goes at M1 and virtually with every rank. My point was that not every position is immediately available (see Wakamotoharu, he went 10-5 M6e, 10-5 M4e but his Aki-Kyushu promotion was modest because of the logjam). For instance, Hakuho was made Sekiwake because a spot was opened up by Kotooshu being promoted to Ozeki (Kyushu 2005 banzuke). Let's imagine a situation in which both Sekiwake get a KK, and the K1W goes 9-6 while K1E is 8-7. Neither score is good enough to force a S2 spot (11-4, usually), but toriteki rules mean no swapping. Next basho they both perform 8-7 and a Sekiwake spot is opened, but K1E (8-7, 8-7) gets it because of precedence, while K1W (9-6, 8-7) gets the East position but remains at Komusubi. To be clear, there is no grand drama here (there's always a second occasion), but it's not a totally pleasing situation either, especially considering that Komusubi is a difficult rank to keep to begin with.

Here our most recent examples (btw, I am not a DB monster myself, I did much of the work manually):

M1 - Kyushu 2021 M1E 8-7 Daieisho becomes Komusubi, M1W 8-7 Wakatakakage takes the East spot.

M1 - Kyushu 2017 M1E 11-4J Tamawashi moves all up to Sekiwake, while 11-4J M1W Takakeisho is put at Komusubi

K1 - Natsu 2017 K1E 8-7 Mitakeumi is promoted to Sekiwake, K1W 8-7 Yoshikaze moves East

K-M - Haru 2015 Golden example that san'yaku is not one and same with Maegashira, and perhaps that should not follow the same toriteki rules. K1W 8-7 Myogiryu gets Sekiwake, while M1E 10-5 Tochiozan and M1W 9-6 Ichinojo are promoted to Komusubi. Myogiryu fared the most modest outcome yet he got the bigger slice of cake simply because he was at a different rank, not just more senior. While a better score allows a K1W to jump over his K1E colleague, a M1 cannot do the same like Komusubi were a M0 spot.

K1 - Haru 2003 K1E Dejima and K1W Tosanoumi both went 8-7, but only K1E Dejima was promoted to Sekiwake.

K1 - Haru 1999 Another example of your point being valid. K1E 8-7 Tochiazuma is jumped over by... everyone. K1W 9-6 Dejima, K2E 11-4 Akinoshima, and K2W 10-5 Kaiou. In other words, better scores can supersede seniority.

K1 - Kyushu 1998 Banzuke cruelty again at work. K1E 9-6 Musoyama gets Sekiwake, K2W 10-5 Kotonowaka gets Sekiwake, K1W 9-6 Dejima gets... the east. Half rank is sometimes everything. Dejima score 9-6 just like Musoyama, but only the latter was promoted.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Hankegami

[Tochinofuji 387]

5 hours ago, Hankegami said:

I didn't explained myself well there, sorry. Of course a K1W gets the spot with a better score, but K1E has precedence in case of a same score. Same goes at M1 and virtually with every rank. My point was that not every position is immediately available (see Wakamotoharu, he went 10-5 M6e, 10-5 M4e but his Aki-Kyushu promotion was modest because of the logjam). For instance, Hakuho was made Sekiwake because a spot was opened up by Kotooshu being promoted to Ozeki (Kyushu 2005 banzuke). Let's imagine a situation in which both Sekiwake get a KK, and the K1W goes 9-6 while K1E is 8-7. Neither score is good enough to force a S2 spot (11-4, usually), but toriteki rules mean no swapping. Next basho they both perform 8-7 and a Sekiwake spot is opened, but K1E (8-7, 8-7) gets it because of precedence, while K1W (9-6, 8-7) gets the East position but remains at Komusubi. To be clear, there is no grand drama here (there's always a second occasion), but it's not a totally pleasing situation either, especially considering that Komusubi is a difficult rank to keep to begin with.

Here our most recent examples (btw, I am not a DB monster myself, I did much of the work manually):

M1 - Kyushu 2021 M1E 8-7 Daieisho becomes Komusubi, M1W 8-7 Wakatakakage takes the East spot.

M1 - Kyushu 2017 M1E 11-4J Tamawashi moves all up to Sekiwake, while 11-4J M1W Takakeisho is put at Komusubi

K1 - Natsu 2017 K1E 8-7 Mitakeumi is promoted to Sekiwake, K1W 8-7 Yoshikaze moves East

K-M - Haru 2015 Golden example that san'yaku is not one and same with Maegashira, and perhaps that should not follow the same toriteki rules. K1W 8-7 Myogiryu gets Sekiwake, while M1E 10-5 Tochiozan and M1W 9-6 Ichinojo are promoted to Komusubi. Myogiryu fared the most modest outcome yet he got the bigger slice of cake simply because he was at a different rank, not just more senior. While a better score allows a K1W to jump over his K1E colleague, a M1 cannot do the same like Komusubi were a M0 spot.

K1 - Haru 2003 K1E Dejima and K1W Tosanoumi both went 8-7, but only K1E Dejima was promoted to Sekiwake.

K1 - Haru 1999 Another example of your point being valid. K1E 8-7 Tochiazuma is jumped over by... everyone. K1W 9-6 Dejima, K2E 11-4 Akinoshima, and K2W 10-5 Kaiou. In other words, better scores can supersede seniority.

K1 - Kyushu 1998 Banzuke cruelty again at work. K1E 9-6 Musoyama gets Sekiwake, K2W 10-5 Kotonowaka gets Sekiwake, K1W 9-6 Dejima gets... the east. Half rank is sometimes everything. Dejima score 9-6 just like Musoyama, but only the latter was promoted.

That explanation makes perfect sense, thank you! As you say, no grand drama, but not entirely satisfactory. I think on reflection you're right that any unfairness in a demotion after kachikoshi would probably be less than that caused by the loss of precedence, but either way seems reasonable enough so long as there's consistency. 

[Asashosakari 19,648]

22 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

In short, it's not weird just because the banzuke doesn't have only 2 of each sanyaku rank.

Sumo would have broken down a long time ago if the NSK were that hapless.

It's a sadly recurring pattern that, as soon as a couple or three stablemates are ranked close to each other (doesn't matter if it's joi, mid-maegashira, or juryo), or anything else unusual happens to the banzuke, there's always a handful of fans who claim that the torikumi will somehow become complicated to create because of it...before the tournament. As soon as the action is underway, somehow none of them ever find any reason to continue to remark on the topic.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,648]

3 hours ago, Tochinofuji said:

That explanation makes perfect sense, thank you! As you say, no grand drama, but not entirely satisfactory. I think on reflection you're right that any unfairness in a demotion after kachikoshi would probably be less than that caused by the loss of precedence, but either way seems reasonable enough so long as there's consistency. 

The problem is that the whole thing belies a fundamental misunderstanding of how the banzuke works, or rather, must work (on the part of those who create it, I mean, not fans who try to make sense of what's happening).

The core issue is this: "KK records should be promoted, MK records should be demoted" is really just a convenient shorthand description for what actually needs to happen to keep a banzuke system working, and that is "above-average records should be promoted, below-average records should be demoted". For the vast part of the official banzuke these two descriptions amount to the same thing, but at the ends the equivalence breaks down.

Case in point at the bottom of the banzuke: It's common knowledge (to those even vaguely interested in the topic, at least) that going 3-4 in jonokuchi usually results in a promotion, sometimes even into jonidan: By the time those rikishi get assigned a new rank, only 3-4's and even worse records are left to handle. That means that, at this point in the creation of the banzuke, 3-4 is an above-average record, and consequently there's absolutely nothing weird about it leading to a promotion. Things would get anti-meritocratic in a hurry if a strict MK -> demotion (or at least non-promotion) standard were tried - imagine being the very last-ranked rikishi on the banzuke, getting 3 wins and being stuck as the last-ranked rikishi, because even the guy who went 0-7 half a rank above you got to stay in front to facilitate your non-promotion.

The same is true at the top of the banzuke, with an added twist: At any given moment in the creation of the sanyaku/joi rankings, there's a very limited number of rikishi being compared to each other. That means that many times a KK record is not above average, or sometimes even that a MK record is not below average. People intuitively understand that for the most part, and therefore nobody bats an eye when a 14-1 yokozuna drops to a lower position, or a 6-9 ozeki moves to a higher one. That's why the current approach to the sekiwake rank (we haven't had a chance to see what they would do with two komusubi) is so grating. All the logic here that applies to yokozuna and ozeki applies all the same at sekiwake. Fixating on KK/MK status as the arbiter of how rikishi should move is just plain wrong.

(And yes, that means that ideally, they should also be willing to demote joi 8-7's if there's a crunch caused by much better records pushing upwards. However, since nearly all those crunches only occur because they're trying to enforce an unsustainably small sanyaku that's an issue that would barely exist in the wild if they were acting sensibly in the first place.)

None of that will be news to those here that play any sumo game whose rules don't force the average score towards 7.5 wins. When the banzuke maker of such a game adjusts the scores upwards or downwards for some or all players to build a sensible ranking, that's nothing more than an implicit acknowledgement that banzuke-making can't just run on "8 wins good, 7 wins bad" and always expect to work out.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Asashosakari

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

DB doesn't seem to have updated yet? Usually it has the new banzuke after a few days

[nelimw 80]

Is the move from M9 to M3 for a yusho winner a historically small jump for a yusho winner in the mid maegashira ranks?

[Yamanashi 3,903]

16 minutes ago, nelimw said:

Is the move from M9 to M3 for a yusho winner a historically small jump for a yusho winner in the mid maegashira ranks?

The only remotely similar scenario is 1964: Fujinishiki M9 14-1 Yusho -> K1.

Asanoyama from M8 in 2019 had an identical 12-3 Yusho and landed at M1.

Kyokutenho's Yusho in 2012 was from M7 (12-3) and he also rose to M1.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

You can thank 3 people falling out of lower sanyaku, and a bunch of KKs in the joi who couldn't be fit into the komusubi ranks, for that. As it is, Abi has already been sekiwake (so he's not hard up for the privilege of being moto-sekiwake) and he's well within the joi for a full sanyaku schedule, so I don't see that there are any unfortunate implications for Hatsu from his historically anomalous ranking. Even for the purposes of starting an ōzeki run, a strong result from M3 is acceptable so there's no harm done there either. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

1 hour ago, nelimw said:

Is the move from M9 to M3 for a yusho winner a historically small jump for a yusho winner in the mid maegashira ranks?

Abi is the first yusho winner in the 15-days-era who didn't rise above M3, so: yes.

[Reonito 1,519]

11 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Kyokutenho's Yusho in 2012 was from M7 (12-3) and he also rose to M1.

So that's identical to Abi—a 6-rank rise for a 12-3 Y

[nelimw 80]

Thanks for the knowledge yall. It just seemed like a small jump to me. Makes sense with the log jam in the sanyaku ranks. Banzuke luck is very interesting. 

[Akinomaki 40,761]

Shikona size recovery on the banzuke for Asanoyama, sd->ms->juryo - on the right 2 years ago as ozeki o