Promotion/Demotion/Yūshō Discussion Natsu 2023

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

1 minute ago, Hausu said:

Stupid question but is there no chance of an Onosato Juryo promotion with there being at least 5 spots open?

No.

[WAKATAKE 2,648]

If Onosato had gone 7-0 they would have forced Enho down. But it looks like Chiyonokuni and Tokihayate will go down, with Shiden, Kawazoe and Shishi as the guaranteed promotees. My guess is Chiyonoumi gets the nod over Yuma. 5-2 at makushita 5 is a stretch to drop Enho all the way down

[visitor_22 28]

What's the chance Ochiai will be promoted to Makuuchi after 14-1 result?

Assuming Gonoyama is guaranteed & Shonannoumi is probably 2'd after him.

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by visitor_22

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

Big Dan survives! Things are going to get messy. Who is going to get snubbed? Or will they dare to demote Endo?

[Hankegami 446]

24 minutes ago, visitor_22 said:

What's the chance Ochiai will be promoted to Makuuchi after 14-1 result?

Assuming Gonoyama is guaranteed & Shonannoumi is probably 2'd after him.

He has a very good promotion case - by the numbers. However, Aoiyama has just won his bout, complicating the demotion queue. Now it looks like Aoiyama (M17e - safe), Endo (M17w - in danger), Kagayaki (M18e - in danger), Mitoryu (M21e - demoted), Ichiyamamoto (M22e - demoted), Ichinojo (retired). The promotion queue from Juryo is as follows - by the numbers. Gonoyama (J-12e), Shonannoumi (J-6w), Ochiai (J-5w), Bushozan (J-3e), Atamifuji (J-2e). However, Atamifuji and Ochiai are at J8, while the others three sit at the top of the juryo banzuke.

As @Bunbukuchagama just pointed out, things are complicated. Bushozan with a 10-5 from J3e should get senior preference, I cannot see him being denied his promotion. The guys in danger are IMHO the lower ranked - Atamifuji and Ochiai. That's because there are only three "safe" spots (Ichinojo, Ichiyamamoto, Mitoryu). Kagayaki could also go down in favor of Ocihai, but it would be awkward to leave Atamifuji back since he sits next to him and is just one win away. So, there are two options IMHO 1) They demote also Endo (M17w) and promote Atamifuji; 2) They look more at the banzuke and promote the three upper Juryo and give the J8 duo a second shot in July at J1.

Considering that the NSK is more oriented toward under-demontions but also to avoid massive division exchanges, I have a feel that they will choose the latter. Kagayaki will be spared and also Endo, who is falling from M2w and not from the lower Makuuchi. Ochiai will be put at J1e and Atamifuji at J1w.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Hankegami

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

3 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Kagayaki will be spared

You insist on denying it, but Kagayaki is gone. All 5 promotion candidates project way higher than him in R+R. 

Endo is a different question, he is way too high and barely demotable.

[Hankegami 446]

20 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

You insist on denying it, but Kagayaki is gone. All 5 promotion candidates project way higher than him in R+R. 

Endo is a different question, he is way too high and barely demotable.

As we wrote extensively last time, you are mathematically very right. Well, mathematically also Endo would be gone, but no one is betting on that. However, this Committee has showed us just last time around that math is important only up to a certain point. Shimanoumi left in Juryo is literally one of their grand miracles.

Anyway, I did an error in my previous post. Bushozan is last in the promotion queue at J-2. Atamifuji is fourth at J-3. This means they would be going to leave Bushozan back alone by kicking Kagayaki down but not Endo. Do you think that this situation is anywhere likely to happen? To be honest, I wouldn't mind that - I like Atamifuji and Ochiai, I really do. But I cannot forget they are at J8.

Anyway, we will see what will happen in due time. I can only say I have a Han Solo-ish "I have a bad feeling about this".

Edited May 28, 2023 by Hankegami

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

1 minute ago, Hankegami said:

Anyway, I did an error in my previous post. Bushozan is last in the promotion queue at J-2. Atamifuji is fourth at J-3. This means they would be going to leave Bushozan back alone by kicking Kagayaki down but not Endo. Do you think that this situation is anywhere likely to happen? 

Well, they didn't mind snubbing Akua but promoting Mitoryu back after Kyushu. So, I don't think Kagayaki's fate is linked to Endo's in any meaningful way.

[visitor_22 28]

I really hope they will promote Ochiai. I want to see him against top of Makuuchi.

Obviously a HEALTHY Ochiai this time.

Edited May 28, 2023 by visitor_22

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

After so much anticipation, nothing exciting happened on Komusubi front: Abi will replace Shodai.

[lackmaker 434]

Interesting to see what targets are set for ozeki promotion next time out. All 3 guys are worth a punt.

[Chiyotasuke 275]

The GTB helper has been updated. As someone suggested on Github, I added a juryo banzuke on the left to fill in, which is relevant to this thread (I should've known about this). You'll also notice the columnized layout. I think it's suitable for editing it in spreadsheet, you just need to select and copy it from the page. And note the "Notes" column. All of them are togglable. But I had to remove the "Save to Drive" feature because of problems it caused. I don't suppose many people used that feature. Let me know of any issues or suggestions regarding the helper.

https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

[Seiyashi 4,072]

5 hours ago, Hausu said:

Stupid question but is there no chance of an Onosato Juryo promotion with there being at least 5 spots open?

Nope. His only hope of immediate promotion was a zenshō, which he goofed on his first bout. Another 6-1 will probably do it, though. 

[Hankegami 446]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Nope. His only hope of immediate promotion was a zenshō, which he goofed on his first bout. Another 6-1 will probably do it, though. 

I would add that a typical spot for a Ms10 who goes 6-1 is around Ms1-3 (here). A rapid attempt of mine to draw the next Makushita banzuke finds him at Ms3w (but I'm not that good with Makushita, so I could be totally wrong). Considering that Chiyonoumi possibly clinched a promotion from that very spot with a 4-3, chances that Onosato will reach Juryo for Aki are very good (assuming that he will provide another good performance).

[Sakura 1,484]

6 hours ago, Hankegami said:

 Bushozan (J-3e), Atamifuji (J-2e).

Atamifuji actually calculates to J-4e, so Bushozan would be last by the `numbers'. IT's not usual for a 10-5 J3 to be denied promotion but it has happened. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Sakura

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

6 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Atamifuji actually calculates to J-4e, so Bushozan would be last by the `numbers'. IT's not usual for a 10-5 J3 to be denied promotion but it has happened. 

In the last century... Somehow I have a feeling that Atamifuji will be the one snubbed. Ochiai beats him in record, Bushozan in rank - he might get unlucky regardless of direction the committee decides to go in.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

Day 15 yūshō wrapup:

The only two outstanding yūshōs are in Jonidan and Jūryō. Satorufuji beat Ōshōryū to sour the latter's comeback, whereas Gōnoyama beat Ochiai in the first ever 14-1 jūryō ketteisen. 

[Seiyashi 4,072]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 15

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

O	14-1	Terunofuji	Y
			O	Takakeishō	8-7	O
O	11-4	Kiribayama	S	Hōshōryū	11-4	O
O	10-5	Daieishō	S	Wakamotoharu	10-5	O
O	8-7	Kotonowaka	K	Wakatakakage	0-0-15	X
X	6-9	Shōdai	K
O	8-7	Abi	M1
			M2
X	8-7	Tobizaru	M3
X	7-8	Ura	M4	Nishikigi	9-6	X
			M5
X	8-7	Meisei	M6	Mitakeumi	9-6	X
			M7	Tamawashi	7-8	X

Demotion queue: Wakatakakage, Shōdai
Promotion queue: Abi

For all the discussion about queues over the past few days, the komusubi picture straightened itself out remarkably simply on the final day. Abi and Kotonowaka scored their KKs, so Abi will take over the K1w slot while K2e disappears.

The wheels have been set in motion to approve Kiribayama's promotion to ōzeki, so we will see Kiribayama as O1w in Nagoya. Hōshōryū, Daieishō, and Wakamotoharu will move up a half rank retaining their relative orders, and all three are confirmed to be on ōzeki runs in Nagoya as well. With so much to play for, the joi is going to be in for another beating. That's going to be most of the people in the table above, plus Midorifuji, and maybe Ōnoshō, Hiradoumi, and Hokuseihō.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

			M10	Takarafuji	5-10	O
			M11
O	5-10	Aoiyama	M12
			M13	Ichinojō	0-0	R
			M14
X	4-11	Ichiyamamoto	M15
X	5-10	Mitoryū	M16
X	7-8	Kagayaki	M17
O	14-1	Gōnoyama	J1	Shōnannoumi	11-4	O
			J2
~	10-5	Bushōzan	J3
			J4
R	0-6	Tochinoshin	J5
O	13-2	Atamifuji	J8	Ochiai	14-1	O

Demotion queue: Ichinojō*, Ichiyamamoto, Mitoryū, Kagayaki
Promotion queue: Gōnoyama, Shōnnanoumi, Ochiai, Atamifuji

As a return to orthodox rationality, I'll accept that Kagayaki is demotable, although if he somehow survives I will pull out a "I told you so" card. Bushōzan should miss out on promotion as he has the weakest rank-record combination of the 5 possible candidates, although a 10-5 from J3 looks a lot more classically promotable than 13/14 from J8. In any case, we have news from senshūraku parties that Ochiai, now Hakuōhō, has received a shikona in anticipation of makuuchi promotion, so it's a toss up between which of Bushōzan and Atamifuji is made to try again for repromotion.

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J9	Chiyonokuni	0-10-5	X
O	6-9	Chiyomaru	J10
O	6-9	Hidenoumi	J11
			J12
			J13
X	6-9	Tokihayate	J14	Tsushimanada	8-7	O
O	4-3	Shiden	Ms1	Kawazoe	5-2	O
			Ms2	Shishi	6-1	O
			Ms3	Chiyonoumi	4-3	O
~	4-3	Tochimusashi	Ms4
~	5-2	Yūma	Ms5

Demotion queue: Ichinojō*, Tochinoshin*, Chiyonokuni, Tokihayate
Promotion queue: Shishi, Kawazoe, Shiden, Chiyonoumi

The biggest news in this field is Yūma losing to Tsushimanada, while Chiyomaru and Hidenoumi did just enough to save themselves. That makes it almost certain that only 4 slots will open in jūryō: the two retirements, Chiyonokuni's zenpai, and Tokihayate. Going up will be Shiden, Kawazoe, Shishi, and Chiyonoumi. Tochimusashi and Yūma have promotable records, but Yūma probably has a stronger rank-record combination, and after his loss of an exchange bout there should be no call for forcing down Enhō in his favour, so the little one is probably safe. This will be the result that we will get earliest, by Wednesday after the banzuke meeting, and I wonder if Miyagino will bestow another shikona on Kawazoe in the meantime.

[Hausu 0]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Nope. His only hope of immediate promotion was a zenshō, which he goofed on his first bout. Another 6-1 will probably do it, though. 

I see, thank you for the insight.  It was a reach, but him and Ochiai have me excited for the future of sumo.  So hard to be patient in seeing those two in the top division and see if they can justify the hype. 

[Gurowake 4,031]

14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

after his loss of an exchange bout there should be no call for forcing down Enhō in his favour, so the little one is probably safe.

I mean, I understand how he lost an exchange bout, but I don't see why he shouldn't replace Enho anyway.  I agree that it's a possibility, but the only time a J3 has survived with 0 wins (when eligible for demotion) was when Enho's first promotion occurred, and they had to dive very deep to get the number of candidates needed for far more demotable people so Takanoiwa staying makes sense there.  J2w has gone down as recent as 2010 in favor either 4-3 Ms4w or 5-2 Ms5w.  Note the other J2 with 0 wins likely survived there only due to lack of candidates, as with Takanoiwa.  There's even a case in 2012 of a J1w going down in favor of a 4-3 Ms4e.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,031]

No spoiler for my pick for the last rikishi cut from Makuuchi.

 

	J1	Kagayaki(7-8 M17e)
Roga(9-6 J4w)	J2	Mitoryu(5-10 M16e)
Ichiyamamoto(4-11 M15e)	J3	Shimazuumi(8-7 J6w)
Oshoma(7-8 J4e)	J4	Tamashoho(9-6 J11w)
Kitanowaka(8-7 J10w)	J5	Tohakuryu(4-11 J2w)
Fujiseiun(9-6 J13e)	J6	Hakuyozan(6-8 J6e)
Akua(5-10 J5w)	J7	Churanoumi(7-8 J7w)
Takakento(6-9 J7e)	J8	Tomokaze(8-7 J12e)
Daiamami(7-8 J9e)	J9	Chiyosakae(8-7 J12w)
Azumaryu(2-13 J2e)	J10	Shimanoumi(8-7 J13w)
Chiyomaru(6-9 J10e)	J11	Tsushimanada(8-7 J14w)
Shishi(6-1 Ms2w)	J12	Kawazoe(5-2 Ms1w)
Hidenoumi(6-9 J11e)	J13	Shiden(4-3 Ms1e)
Yuma(5-2 Ms5e)	J14	Chiyonoumi(4-3 Ms3w)
Tochimusashi(4-3 Ms4e)	Ms1	Enho(0-10 J3w)
Tokihayate(6-9 J14e)	Ms2	Onosato(6-1 TDe)
Kiryuko(7-0 Ms26w)	Ms3	Takahashi(6-1 Ms13e)
Mukainakano(4-3 Ms6e)	Ms4	Ishizaki(5-2 Ms11e)
Kotokuzan(3-4 Ms2e)	Ms5	Kaisho(4-3 Ms9w)
Kazekeno(5-2 Ms13w)	Ms6	Tsukahara(4-3 Ms10w)
Chiyonokuni(0-10 J9w)	Ms7	Hayatefuji(3-4 Ms4w)
Chiyonoo(5-2 Ms14w)	Ms8	Mineyaiba(4-3 Ms12w)
Otsuji(5-2 Ms18e)	Ms9	Kotoozutsu(4-3 Ms14e)
Hitoshi(5-2 Ms18w)	Ms10	Fukai(4-3 Ms17e)
Kamito(3-4 Ms8e)	Ms11	Yago(4-3 Ms17w)
Kanzaki(3-4 Ms8w)	Ms12	Fujinoyama(5-2 Ms23w)
Nabatame(3-4 Ms9e)	Ms13	Tsurubayashi(5-2 Ms24w)
Terutsuyoshi(2-5 Ms5w)	Ms14	Nishinoryu(3-4 Ms10e)
Tokushoryu(2-5 Ms6w)	Ms15	Hokaho(5-2 Ms28w)
Oshoumi(4-3 Ms22e)	Ms16	Miyagi(3-4 Ms11w)

 

Down to Ms16 because the last three are basically the same by my movement schedule.

 

[Seiyashi 4,072]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I mean, I understand how he lost an exchange bout, but I don't see why he shouldn't replace Enho anyway.  I agree that it's a possibility, but the only time a J3 has survived with 0 wins (when eligible for demotion) was when Enho's first promotion occurred, and they had to dive very deep to get the number of candidates needed for far more demotable people so Takanoiwa staying makes sense there.  J2w has gone down as recent as 2010 in favor either 4-3 Ms4w or 5-2 Ms5w.  Note the other J2 with 0 wins likely survived there only due to lack of candidates, as with Takanoiwa.  There's even a case in 2012 of a J1w going down in favor of a 4-3 Ms4e.

Does the recent case of Shimanoumi's non-demotion because he beat Kawazoe in an exchange bout, and the knock on effects on Shiden with a worse promotion case, change your opinion?

Discussion starting about here, for your reference: 

Disclosure - that's the main reason why I consider Enhō safe after the Yūma - Tsushimanada bout.

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,031]

9 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Does the recent case of Shimanoumi's non-demotion because he beat Kawazoe in an exchange bout, and the knock on effects on Shiden with a worse promotion case, change your opinion?

I don't think these situations have anything in common.  Shiden was under the invisible line and would only be promoted if they needed someone.  They were basically forced to decide whether to demote both Tsushimanada and Shimanoumi, or neither.  If they demoted both, they would have had to promote Shiden, which they didn't believe as necessary.  That sucks for Kawazoe, but while it could be chalked up to losing the exchange bout, I don't think that in itself was the cause of their decision.  It might have been part of it, but the larger issue was that promoting Kawazoe meant promoting Shiden from a spot in a situation where they didn't want to do that, while they were perfectly fine with not promoting a 4-3 Ms3w over a minimally demotable Juryo rikishi.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,387]

8 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Kagayaki could also go down in favor of Ocihai, but it would be awkward to leave Atamifuji back since he sits next to him and is just one win away.

There's absolutely nothing awkward about that, as one more win at the same rank is a dramatically strong case.

[Sumo Spiffy 550]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

There's absolutely nothing awkward about that, as one more win at the same rank is a dramatically strong case.

This. One win equals two full ranks of movement, all other things being equal. Being one win off of a guy when you're only a half-rank ahead absolutely puts you behind him.