Promotion/Demotion/Yūshō Discussion Natsu 2023

[Asashosakari 19,104]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

J2w has gone down as recent as 2010 in favor either 4-3 Ms4w or 5-2 Ms5w.  Note the other J2 with 0 wins likely survived there only due to lack of candidates, as with Takanoiwa. 

Actually the J2w went down in favour of Ms11w 6-1 (!) there. It's no use as precedent anyway, those 0-0-15 demotions were part of the baseball gambling scandal. (Related to that was almost certainly the fact that Iwakiyama at J2e was not included in the demotions, because he was actually injured, not suspended.)

That being said, I would be highly surprised if Enho isn't in makushita next time.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Asashosakari

[lackmaker 434]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

O	14-1	Terunofuji	Y
			O	Takakeishō	8-7	O
O	11-4	Kiribayama	S	Hōshōryū	11-4	O
O	10-5	Daieishō	S	 Wakamotoharu	10-5	O
O	8-7	 Kotonowaka	K	Wakatakakage	0-0-15	X
X	6-9	Shōdai	K	
O	8-7	Abi	M1		
			M2		
X	8-7	Tobizaru	M3		
X	7-8	Ura	M4	Nishikigi	9-6	X
			M5		
X	8-7	Meisei	M6	Mitakeumi	9-6	X
			M7	Tamawashi	7-8	X

How does Nishikigi go from 8-6, favourable outcome achieved to 9-6, favourable outcome failed?

[Reonito 1,387]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

No spoiler for my pick for the last rikishi cut from Makuuchi.

The fact that you're predicting one more cut is interesting in itself 

[Reonito 1,387]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Mukainakano(4-3 Ms6e) Ms4 Ishizaki(5-2 Ms11e)

Kotokuzan(3-4 Ms2e) Ms5 Kaisho(4-3 Ms9w)

Kazekeno(5-2 Ms13w) Ms6 Tsukahara(4-3 Ms10w)

I guess the only question here is which two of Kotokuzan, Kaisho and Kazekeno end up in the top 10.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

14 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

How does Nishikigi go from 8-6, favourable outcome achieved to 9-6, favourable outcome failed?

Because Abi pipped him for the komusubi slot, although that probably means he should have been ~ from the beginning. As Gurowake pointed out a few days ago, this is the first time I'm handling the thread where the komusubi is simply the best KK available. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,031]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

The fact that you're predicting one more cut is interesting in itself 

Well, I mean there is one more rikishi that needs to be in Juryo that deserves to be in Makuuchi.  Whether it's a "cut" or simply denial of promotion, I didn't intend to say.  It's either Aoiyama, Atamifuji, or Bushozan, and there are arguments in favor of all of them.

[Reonito 1,387]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Well, I mean there is one more rikishi that needs to be in Juryo that deserves to be in Makuuchi.  Whether it's a "cut" or simply denial of promotion, I didn't intend to say.  It's either Aoiyama, Atamifuji, or Bushozan, and there are arguments in favor of all of them.

Aoiyama before Endo? Strictly by the numbers, Endo would be half a rank "ahead" in the demotion queue, but given their banzuke positions, I tend to agree.

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

1 hour ago, lackmaker said:

How does Nishikigi go from 8-6, favourable outcome achieved to 9-6, favourable outcome failed?

He didn't get to Komusubi because Abi got KK. "Favourable outcome" should be read as "can be promoted with this result if circumstances allow it". 

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

58 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Aoiyama before Endo? Strictly by the numbers, Endo would be half a rank "ahead" in the demotion queue, but given their banzuke positions, I tend to agree.

Demoting Aoiyama would be unusually cruel. I imagine it could happen if, say, Gonoyama needed to be promoted and no other demotion candidates were available. Otherwise, he is safe.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Gurowake 4,031]

49 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Aoiyama before Endo? Strictly by the numbers, Endo would be half a rank "ahead" in the demotion queue, but given their banzuke positions, I tend to agree.

I don't think Endo is in any danger at all.  0-win (as well as 1-, 2-, and sometimes 3-win) demotions are generally lenient compared to the numbers.  The most I would consider Endo to be demotable is 13 ranks, not 15.  I expect him to end up above all the Juryo promotees as well, given that the matches he did have were against the very top of the division.

[visitor_22 28]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

we have news from senshūraku parties that Ochiai, now Hakuōhō, has received a shikona in anticipation of makuuchi promotion

Wait, wait... So Ochiai now on will be 'Hakuoho'? Almost Hakuho?

Is it true? 

[Gurowake 4,031]

9 minutes ago, visitor_22 said:

Wait, wait... So Ochiai now on will be 'Hakuoho'? Almost Hakuho?

Is it true? 

There's only one kanji in common (the last one), but yes.  They are pronouncing the first kanji the same as in Hakuho, so it's like just adding the long o from the middle kanji.

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

8 hours ago, Chiyotasuke said:

The GTB helper has been updated. As someone suggested on Github, I added a juryo banzuke on the left to fill in, which is relevant to this thread (I should've known about this). You'll also notice the columnized layout. I think it's suitable for editing it in spreadsheet, you just need to select and copy it from the page. And note the "Notes" column. All of them are togglable. But I had to remove the "Save to Drive" feature because of problems it caused. I don't suppose many people used that feature. Let me know of any issues or suggestions regarding the helper.

https://chiyotasuke.github.io/gtbhelper/

It looks great!

I've been staring at this interface for hours this weekend and I'm extremely attuned to how nice the new layer of polish looks on the UI. Saving and importing to a flat file would be nice, instead of gsheet.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Hoshotakamoto

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

feedback?

 

EDITs:
- I probably should move Chiyomaru ahead of Tsushimanada.
- I have a feeling they'll give Azumaryu the edge over Chiyosakae because he's had a longer tenure in the top ranks. Not sure if Tomokaze would fall victim to the same bias.
- Oh right I had a huge whiff here on Tamashoho.
- I didn't even realize Gurowake posted the same thing earlier.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Hoshotakamoto

[Reonito 1,387]

I just tried making a draft, and there's a big hole in the middle of the banzuke. M5w is once again hard to fill.

EDIT: 5w isn't too bad, 6e through 7e is worse

Edited May 28, 2023 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,387]

34 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

feedback?

I don't see any way Tokihayate can stay. It's literally never happened outside of the scandal basho in 2011 since juryo went to 28 rikishi.

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I just tried making a draft, and there's a big hole in the middle of the banzuke. M5w is once again hard to fill.

In my analysis putting Asanoyama and Ichinojo on the M5 line had a net neutral impact on my GTB score.

[Tigerboy1966 1,423]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I just tried making a draft, and there's a big hole in the middle of the banzuke. M5w is once again hard to fill.

I have Onosho in that spot without too much drama. I started to hit trouble at M7e.

People posting predictions without naming their J1 and J2 like it's a secret sauce recipe.  I have Endo & Kagayaki filling those spots and you are welcome to steal my recipe, guaranteeing a "peaked in sandanme" GTB career.

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

Just now, Tigerboy1966 said:

People posting predictions without naming their J1 and J2 like it's a secret sauce recipe.  

They don't want you to know who they promoted/demoted in GTB. 

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

They don't want you to know who they promoted/demoted in GTB. 

I didn't want to be influenced by other people's feedback on the J1 line :) I'm still holding out hope for Tokihayate and the Celtics (actually I hate the Celtics, but the point stands).

[Reonito 1,387]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

They don't want you to know who they promoted/demoted in GTB. 

It's only worth 2 points. At the moment, if forced to guess, I'd put Bushozan at J1e, but I don't like it and may well change my mind. If it were up to me, I'd punt Aoiyama to juryo, even if it is a bit harsh.

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

I think Bushozan is actually the person testing recipes for secret sauce on how to get out of Juryo. Lose 13 out of the first 14 matches? That drops you to J9. 9-6 from J10? Doesn't work. 8-7 from J6? Doesn't work. 8-7 from J4? Doesn't work (gotta keep Terutsuyoshi up there so he can go 0-15). 8-7 from J2? Doesn't work. 9-6 from J1? Bingo, you made it. Quick 5-10 so we can go back to the lab ... 10-5 from J3? Results pending.

Edit: Just reminded myself Bushozan was also the first one I actively paid attention to as he got 7-8 at J14e and stayed at J14e.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Hoshotakamoto

[Hoshotakamoto 258]

20 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It's only worth 2 points. At the moment, if forced to guess, I'd put Bushozan at J1e, but I don't like it and may well change my mind. If it were up to me, I'd punt Aoiyama to juryo, even if it is a bit harsh.

Tomokaze dropped from J1 to J13 with an 0-0-15 ... how much would Wakatakakage notice if they dropped him to J1 now and let him go K - J - J - Ms instead of K - M - J - Ms? Certainly it will make no difference whether he launches his comeback from Jd13 or Jd17.

[Gurowake 4,031]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I just tried making a draft, and there's a big hole in the middle of the banzuke. M5w is once again hard to fill.

EDIT: 5w isn't too bad, 6e through 7e is worse

Yes, it's bad, but I don't think it's particularly unclear which rikishi get those spots.

[Gurowake 4,031]

Also, there's a similar huge hole in Juryo.  There'll be a bunch of rikishi ranked 3 and 4 ranks ahead of their target based on rank/record as can be seen on my mockup above.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Gurowake