Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[robnplunder 976]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

No. Both Hokutofuji and Hakuoho can still end up with 12 wins ahead of him.

True.  Thanks for pointing it out.

Daieisho wins with henka (sigh).  If he wins tomorrow, that will give him 32 wins but I don't think he gets the promotion. 

[Chartorenji 243]

Kadoban Ozeki double now. Hoshoryu probs gets it even with a loss (or Daieisho swoops in if that's still an option) 

[robnplunder 976]

We have a new Ozeki!  Hoshoryu deserves it with his 33 wins in 3 Basho.  

Wakamotoharu & Daieisho's Ozeki runs get reset.

Edited July 23, 2023 by robnplunder

[Bunbukuchagama 770]

Daieisho would need 14 wins in Aki; his run is over. 

[Jakusotsu 6,045]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Daieisho would need 14 wins in Aki; his run is over. 

Shush! Don't wake @Hakuryuho from his dream!

[Kaninoyama 1,816]

In the end it played out as it should have. Hoshyoryu's ascension was just a matter of time. Daieisho just doesn't have the stability and consistency to be a reliable Ozeki. And the jury is still out on Wakamotoharu. 

Meanwhile, Kotonowaka is lurking and Asanoyama wants to remind everyone that he used to be an Ozeki himself and didn't lose his rank due to diminished skill. 

The next few basho should be full of intrigue. 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Kaninoyama

[Akinomaki 40,753]

Repost no. 2

1 minute ago, Akinomaki said:

The procedure has started: Sadogatake requested the special riji-kai to discuss the promotion and Hakkaku acknowledged - on Wednesday the banzuke compilation conference and the rijikai officially decide and we have the new ozeki Hoshoryu (unless someone urges him to change his name for that) https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2023072300320

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Trivia off NHK. Hōshōryū, at 33 basho (excluding tsukedashi) to reach ōzeki, slots in between Hakuhō (at 32) and Kotoōshū (at 34).

The rest of the list shakes out thus:

1. 24: Asashōryū and Takahanada
2. 25: Terunofuji
3. 26: Akebono and Takakeishō
4. 30: Musashimaru
5. 31: Wakahanada
6. 32: Hakuhō
7. 33: Hōshōryū (so 9th fastest promotion to ōzeki from debut)
8. 34: Kotoōshū

EDIT: Not promotion, yūshō.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Hakuryuho 335]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Trivia off NHK. Hōshōryū, at 33 basho (excluding tsukedashi) to reach ōzeki, slots in between Hakuhō (at 32) and Kotoōshū (at 34).

The rest of the list shakes out thus:

1. 24: Asashōryū and Takahanada
2. 25: Terunofuji
3. 26: Akebono and Takakeishō
4. 30: Musashimaru
5. 31: Wakahanada
6. 32: Hakuhō
7. 33: Hōshōryū (so 9th fastest promotion to ōzeki from debut)
8. 34: Kotoōshū

I can see the record being absolutely shattered by a certain someone...

...Did I jinx it now? 

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 minutes ago, Hakuryuho said:

I can see the record being absolutely shattered by a certain someone...

...Did I jinx it now? 

Tsukedashi exclusive, so...

[Hakuryuho 335]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Tsukedashi exclusive, so...

Ah, that's boring

[ryafuji 815]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

Trivia off NHK. Hōshōryū, at 33 basho (excluding tsukedashi) to reach ōzeki, slots in between Hakuhō (at 32) and Kotoōshū (at 34).

The rest of the list shakes out thus:

1. 24: Asashōryū and Takahanada
2. 25: Terunofuji
3. 26: Akebono and Takakeishō
4. 30: Musashimaru
5. 31: Wakahanada
6. 32: Hakuhō
7. 33: Hōshōryū (so 9th fastest promotion to ōzeki from debut)
8. 34: Kotoōshū

Shouldn't Konishiki be in there? Unless I'm missing something he was promoted after his 30th basho. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by ryafuji

[Seiyashi 4,108]

My bad - it wasn't promotion, it was yūshō. Shifting that.

[Gurowake 4,100]

Looking forward to Aki, we'll have three Sekiwake who are at 10-9, 10-9 and 8-11 the last two tournaments, so all coming in with 19 wins.  Obviously they need 14 for 33/3, but I would assume that 13Y would be easily enough.  13D is probably good enough too, as well as the hilariously unlikely at this point in time 13J, but might not be if the sumo is bad.  12Y might be enough for the two Sekiwake on the current banzuke as they have multiple 10 win basho in their current sanyaku run, and it would be more about how much they look like Ozeki.  I don't think 12Y is good enough for Kotonowaka, nor do i think 12D is good enough for the others.

Current full Sanyaku runs for all of them:

Daieisho: 12-10-9
Wakamotoharu: 9-11-10-9
Kotonowaka: 8-9-8-11

Edited July 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Kotonowaka's run is probably just getting started, and with Takakeishō and Kirishima fighting next basho all their chances of that high scoring a basho are quite low. There's also at least Hōshōryū and now Hakuōhō to contend with too (the latter is probably getting jumped up to the joi if not just outside it).

I think more realistically their runs are reset and Kotonowaka ironically is now one basho in a run if he makes it.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,518]

9 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Looking forward to Aki, we'll have three Sekiwake who are at 10-9, 10-9 and 8-11 the last two tournaments, so all coming in with 19 wins.  Obviously they need 14 for 33/3, but I would assume that 13Y would be easily enough.  13D is probably good enough too, as well as the hilariously unlikely at this point in time 13J, but might not be if the sumo is bad.  12Y might be enough for the two Sekiwake on the current banzuke as they have multiple 10 win basho in their current sanyaku run, and it would be more about how much they look like Ozeki.  I don't think 12Y is good enough for Kotonowaka, nor do i think 12D is good enough for the others.

Current full Sanyaku runs for all of them:

Daieisho: 12-10-9
Wakamotoharu: 9-11-10-9
Kotonowaka: 8-9-8-11

I doubt 12 is going to be enough for anyone, 10-9-12 isn't a great line and 31 hasn't been done since the pre-Futahaguro era.

[Gurowake 4,100]

Just now, Reonito said:

I doubt 12 is going to be enough for anyone, 10-9-12 isn't a great line and 31 hasn't been done since the pre-Futahaguro era.

I agree, but they might show amazing command of their opponents in their 12 wins and just barely manage to not win their 3 losses against either each other or upper sanyaku.  With such outstanding displays of sumo and consistency in sanyaku including 3 double digit tournaments in 4 basho, they might be given the nod.

[Akinomaki 40,753]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Looking forward to Aki, we'll have three Sekiwake who are at 10-9, 10-9 and 8-11 the last two tournaments, so all coming in with 19 wins.  Obviously they need 14 for 33/3, but I would assume that 13Y would be easily enough.  13D is probably good enough too, as well as the hilariously unlikely at this point in time 13J, but might not be if the sumo is bad.  12Y might be enough for the two Sekiwake on the current banzuke as they have multiple 10 win basho in their current sanyaku run, and it would be more about how much they look like Ozeki.  I don't think 12Y is good enough for Kotonowaka, nor do i think 12D is good enough for the others.

Daieisho: 12-10-9
Wakamotoharu: 9-11-10-9
Kotonowaka: 8-9-8-11

Nobody is officially on an ozeki run with this next basho, the good results of the other 2 sekiwake drop out and Kotonowaka just starts. With 3 ozeki now and the others a disappointment, no 32 win promotion can be expected. OTOH, any 13-2 yusho may be enough, for once if the present/new ozeki disappoint again, for the 2 present sekiwake because of their consistency and for Kotonowaka because he's the son of the decider and all are eager to have a new Kotozakura. 13-2D might only be enough for new hope Kotonowaka, not for the others.

[RabidJohn 1,853]

Yeah, we've had two ozeki promotions in consecutive basho. No need to be huffing copium.

Kotonowaka may have just completed the 1st stage of a run, but we won't know until Aki if he can make it an official run for Fukuoka.

[Gurowake 4,100]

2 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

any 13-2 yusho may be enough

I would find it hard to believe that they wouldn't promote someone with 32/3 who just got a 13 win Yusho and had at least 4 straight basho in sanyaku.  That much seems totally enough to me, to the point that it might be possible, though less likely, with slightly less.

[Gurowake 4,100]

32 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Hakuōhō to contend with too (the latter is probably getting jumped up to the joi if not just outside it)

If he had won the Yusho, it certainly would be interesting to guess where he'd end up given what they did with previous M17 yusho winners that was far out of line from normal guidelines.  But with just an 11-4, i can't imagine that he'll be treated as anything special. I don't see just facing Hoshoryu as being enough to jump Shonannoumi, not to mention Gonoyama who should be much higher, but I don't even see the latter as making it to the joi for sure, though he's definitely just outside.  Thus, I find it reasonable Hakuoho won't even get out of the double digits, though he might be slightly higher.  The next banzuke is a real mess for the mid-maegashira.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Koorifuu 1,019]

On 'looking ozeki' I'd say they've looked the part for the last months... except on day 14, which they'll want to try and avoid.

I understand that they'd want to be extra careful with promotions due to recent ozeki being disappointing and that they don't want any prestige to be lost, but realistically how would they go on to prevent this? Every single one of the last 5 ozeki promotees was a beast leading up to it and fully deserved the nod. And yet, 4 of them immediately had their health & body crashing down on them, whilst the remaining one was caught being a very bad boy a few months later. And it's ironic how the one with the most intact reputation is the one only whose downfall was his own doing.

Making it harder for people to get promoted isn't going to help with that.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Koorifuu

[Reonito 1,518]

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If he had won the Yusho, it certainly would be interesting to guess where he'd end up given what they did with previous M17 yusho winners that was far out of line from normal guidelines.  But with just an 11-4, i can't imagine that he'll be treated as anything special. I don't see just facing Hoshoryu as being enough to jump Shonannoumi, not to mention Gonoyama who should be much higher, but I don't even see the latter as making it to the joi for sure, though he's definitely just outside.  Thus, I find it reasonable Hakuoho won't even get out of the double digits, though he might be slightly higher.  The next banzuke is a real mess for the mid-maegashira.

There's definitely a lot of variance in Hakuoho's ranking, anywhere from joi-adjacent to double digits, depending on how lenient they decide to be with demotions.

[Reonito 1,518]

2 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

On 'looking ozeki' I'd say they've looked the part for the last months... except on day 14, which they'll want to try and avoid.

I understand that they'd want to be extra careful with promotions due to recent ozeki being disappointing and that they don't want any prestige to be lost, but realistically how would they go on to prevent this? Every single one of the last 5 ozeki promotees was a beast leading up to it and fully deserved the nod. And yet, 4 of them immediately had their health & body crashing down on them, whilst the remaining one was caught being a very bad boy a few months later. And it's ironic how the one with the most intact reputation is the one only whose downfall was his own doing.

Making it harder for people to get promoted isn't going to help with that.

No reason to make it harder as you say, but also no reason to relax the de facto standard of 32+ they've enforced since 1985 (12 straight denials in that time with 31 from reasonable ranks with reasonable win totals).

[Godango 1,014]

Personally I wish they'd adopt 33+ over three in sanyaku as an official requirement (with an exception for a hiramaku yusho in basho 1), and remove the subjectivity of 'standard of sumo' and whatnot. 

No one is going to ugly sumo/henka their way to this; and history is changed thusly (from 2000 onwards):

• Onokuni (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Chiyotaikai (promoted 21 tournaments later)
• Kisenosato (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Goeido (never promoted [crazy!])
• Asanoyama (promoted 1 tournament later)
• Shodai (never promoted )

Based on that, I say no more 'lenient' promotions. If Shodai was never Ozeki we'd be no worse off; and sure, Goeido was long-term -- but imo aside from his surprise zensho he was always joi/sanyaku masquerading as Ozeki.