Aki 2023 discussion (results)

[Gurowake 3,924]

Two consecutive yusho by itself is always going to be enough for the YDC to recommend promotion.  I think it's absolutely hard-coded that such a feat gets an automatic recommendation.  The NSK is not technically required to abide by the recommendation from what I understand - they just can't promote anyone that hasn't been recommended.  Two 11-4 Y is certainly in the range of outcomes where the NSK would at least consider not promoting upon the YDC recommendation. 

The real upshot of the 11-4 Y is that any non-yusho, regardless of how many wins, will not cause a promotion recommendation based on the "equivalent" principle (though you might argue if he goes 15-0 and loses the yusho to Takanosho that might be enough).  Nor would it count for anything at all for the tournament after that one.  He's got one shot to get two in row, or it's meaningless.  Similarly, it's reasonable to guess that if his last result had been 13-2 non-yusho that the 11-4 Y wouldn't be enough even if 14-1 non-yusho would be given that he had already had 3 other Yusho.

The most Yusho anyone has won without eventually being Yokozuna is 5 with Kaio, but Takanohana II wasn't promoted until after 7, so there's precedent of having 6 Yusho spread around enough not being enough, even if he won 3 out of 5 tournaments with only 2 losses among those 3 wins, the remaining two results being 11-4.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Gurowake

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

5 hours ago, Tsubame said:

Regarding a possible promotion of Takakeishos:

The days of Terunofuji are numbered. He will not be on the dohyo for long. It is very likely that 2024 will see his intai.

So, having a yokozuna candidate at hand is quite handy, esp. with Takakeisho being a poster boy already. With a second yusho in november I see no way they deny him the promotion. But I agree that a jun-yusho will most likely not be enough, due to  the "circumstances" of his latest yusho. 

But we don't need to have a Yokozuna on the banzuke (unlike the required 2 Ozeki/YO). 

[Asashosakari 18,813]

28 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Just for the sake of argument, how ironclad is the two consecutive yusho thing? Suppose it's another 11-4 with weak sumo (which, sadly, doesn't seem out of the question) — still a guaranteed promotion? I fear the answer is "yes" 

Well, I'd first disagree that this 11-4 was achieved with weak sumo (outside the playoff anyway).  Takakeisho ain't physically dominating as much as he used to, but if this were any yokozuna we're talking about, people would be praising him for finding different ways to win.

Anyway, even Terunofuji has won half his post-comeback championships in the joi with "only" 12-3 records. And he's seen as a mighty berserker who feasts on the rest of the division with impunity. Maybe things will go back to "normal" eventually, but what if not? How long should they leave things be until "all we're missing is a traditional yokozuna caliber rikishi" gives way to a revised understanding of what actually constitutes yokozuna (promotion) caliber? If Takakeisho proves to be the best that's available - and three yusho in a calendar year could hardly be argued against - that's a yokozuna for me. If it turns out that a more dominant generation of top-rankers is coming up after all and Takakeisho merely managed to take advantage of a highly unusual period, then that'll simply be reflected in his yokozuna tenure not lasting very long. I'd be perfectly fine with that outcome.

So, that personal view aside, yeah, I think they'll promote him with any follow-up yusho. But not with anything else, because this 11-4 yusho basically contributes zero value to the quality of the tsuna run except it being a yusho, and so there's no scope to trade anything off against possible shortcomings in the second result.

[Reonito 1,338]

I'm out of reacts but thank you @Gurowake and @Asashosakari for the thoughtful and informative takes.

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

2 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't even understand how what Takekeisho did is considered a henka

And here we go again...

Henka is like porn - you recognize it when you see it. Everything else is just useless semantics. 

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Anyway, even Terunofuji has won half his post-comeback championships in the joi with "only" 12-3 records. And he's seen as a mighty berserker who feasts on the rest of the division with impunity. 

Well, if The Hamster ends up  being as good as Terunofuji, we'll see him as a mighty berserker too.

However, he is an injury-prone Ozeki who is not even too dominant when healthy.

[Asashosakari 18,813]

10 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, if The Hamster ends up  being as good as Terunofuji, we'll see him as a mighty berserker too.

However, he is an injury-prone Ozeki who is not even too dominant when healthy.

Oh, I'm sure you'd love to find out what he's capable of when he's actually healthy. Yokozuna Takakeisho could have gotten away with only entering Hatsu and Aki this year.

[Sumo Spiffy 537]

2 hours ago, Katooshu said:

A henka is an evasive sidestep at the tachiai - he did just that. Henka often involve a pushdown with the arms as part of the movement, despite the commonly espoused and mistaken notion that contact means no henka. I think you make good points regarding its similarity to other movers that aren't so heavily vilified, and tbf Takakeisho did beat Atami with aggressive sumo earlier in the basho (did it make Atami too eager in the rematch?), but that was absolutely a henka.

I thought I wouldn't get into this discussion after arguing with someone who suggested that Abi immediately leaping sideways wasn't a henka, but here I am 

lol, I got a kick out of the fact that my YouTube comments had "Abi's gonna henka" and me saying "they're gonna have the kid ready" and Atami got through exactly that strategy. Abi henkas are big, unapologetic henkas. That's also part of why, while I get what you're saying, *I* still wouldn't call what Keisho did a henka—it didn't look like much of an evasion attempt. If Atami had done anything other than barrel directly into the strategy, there would have been big contact. It's not unusual for guys to start in ways that minimize instant, heavy contact. Takakeisho's just not often one of them. It really feels like, if he had stepped off but braced for the charge as a different strategy, no one would say boo about it.

But I'm not trying to fight about the issue! I really was puzzled about it being called a henka, and I appreciate your explanation. Maybe I just have a hard time seeing it that way because my introduction to henkas were the big-jump Chiyoshoma types.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Sumo Spiffy

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Just for the sake of argument, how ironclad is the two consecutive yusho thing? Suppose it's another 11-4 with weak sumo (which, sadly, doesn't seem out of the question) — still a guaranteed promotion? I fear the answer is "yes" 

In the last 50 years no one has ever not been promoted after winning 2 consecutive yusho. But none of those yusho involved an 11-4. K’sho is the second ozeki after Musashimaru to win an 11-4

[dingo 1,161]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, if The Hamster ends up  being as good as Terunofuji, we'll see him as a mighty berserker too.

However, he is an injury-prone Ozeki who is not even too dominant when healthy.

And Terunofuji is an injury-prone yokozuna who's been barely healthy after the first months of his promotion. Besides, Takakeisho likely would've had the tsuna with 1 more win in Kyushu last year. Sounds dominant enough. 

[Kintamayama 44,375]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Just catching up to the conversation (time zones!), and I don't even understand how what Takekeisho did is considered a henka unless literally any lateral movement on the tachiai is a  henka.

Maybe because it was. Every single media outlet is calling it a henka, the Japanese broadcast called it a henka and even during his yusho speech, he was asked point blank, albeit very politely, why he did that, to which he answered that it wasn’t planned but a guy has to do what he has to do, This ancient argument will never be settled, but it was totally a henka. Now, if that was appropriate at this timing or not is another argument. If it looks like a henka, etc..

[bettega 427]

This was a bad basho, everybody should be ashamed. 

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Yokozuna Takakeisho could have gotten away with only entering Hatsu and Aki this year.

Ozeki Takakeisho already can skip every second basho without getting punished for that. 

I dread the thought of Sekiwake Takakeisho trying to maintain his rank.

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

30 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

In the last 50 years no one has ever not been promoted after winning 2 consecutive yusho. But none of those yusho involved an 11-4. K’sho is the second ozeki after Musashimaru to win an 11-4

That's why saying "he would definitely get promoted" is premature - there is simply no precedent.

[Godango 956]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Ozeki Takakeisho already can skip every second basho without getting punished for that. 

I dread the thought of Sekiwake Takakeisho trying to maintain his rank.

He's been kadoban once when injury wasn't an overt factor.

This will be his 7th potential tsuna run.

With all due respect, I feel you're being unfair to him. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Godango

[Barutokai 62]

14 minutes ago, bettega said:

This was a bad basho, everybody should be ashamed. 

What about Atamifuji? There were also pretty awesome bouts in between. No Ōzeki is kadoban after today.

Sometimes I wonder what is a good Basho. For everyone.

[Kotomiyama 165]

As usual, let me share a couple of thoughts about some rikishi.

Midorifuji: After 7 years in sumo, he seems to have found his way of fighting via katasukashi. He has a 24% win rate using this kimarite, probably the finest user of this technique ever? (I don't know how to look for this statistics in sumodb). He is my favourite small guy in Makuuchi he is brave, fun to watch and I hope he will last longer than Enho or Ishiura.

Hoshoryu: In his first basho as an Ozeki he was going straight to the classical kadoban after promotion. He managed to rally himself and captured a last day kachikoshi. He hasn't reached his prime yet, that I am sure.

Takakeisho: I am not a fan of him. I find his sumo one dimensional, he fights always the same bout (a couple of shoves and a left swing) and I don't like his attitude. And yet I have the deepest respect for him precisely because of that: if sumo is about imposing one's brand of sumo, he has succeeded. He is the most successful Ozeki in the last 20? 30? Years? I don't know if he will one day get the rope, but I am sure he will fight with all his might till the end.

 

 

 

[Barutokai 62]

Atamifuji kinda robbed with only one Sanshō...

[Edwardoho 23]

The last bout was a very disappointing end to the basho. 

Takakeisho will not have gained fans today. 

[Kintamayama 44,375]

"Takakeishou? Not bad.. In a playoff match, anything goes.. Hahahahah.. A win is a win.." said ex- Asashouryuu on Twitter. His nephew? "It's an experience. He will become stronger next basho  I'm looking forward to his becoming stronger and stronger!!"

Edited September 24, 2023 by Kintamayama

[Ripe 70]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Just for the sake of argument, how ironclad is the two consecutive yusho thing? Suppose it's another 11-4 with weak sumo (which, sadly, doesn't seem out of the question) — still a guaranteed promotion? I fear the answer is "yes" 

In entire history there was 17 cases of Ozeki winning two consecutive yusho... 15 of those led to promotion. Two remaining case are Tamanishiki who got promoted following his third consecutive Yusho and Chiyonoyama who won his first two basho he fought as Ozeki.

So I'd say that if he manages to win next one he'd get the rope. But he must win the yusho, no other result would be enough as we saw in the past when he wasn't promoted following 12-3 D, 12-3 Y.

23 minutes ago, Godango said:

He's been kadoban once when injury wasn't an overt factor.

This will be his 7th potential tsuna run.

With all due respect, I feel you're being unfair to him. 

How do you count this as his 7 potential tsuna runs? By my count this would be his 5th shot... but that is when counting his two 12-3 D results as start of the run which I'm not sure we should do considering that wasn't enough to get him the rope even when he followed that result with a 12-3 Y.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Ripe

[Fashiritētā 169]

Here’s a scenario, IF Teru has a career ending injury during the Kyushu Basho and Keisho wins the Yusho with an 11-4, then i would say definitely promote him, thus setting a precedent.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Fashiritētā

[Gospodin 187]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Henka is like porn - you recognize it when you see it. Everything else is just useless semantics. 

Jesus Christ and all Saints - what a warped analogy  !

[Bunbukuchagama 690]

10 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

Jesus Christ and all Saints - what a warped analogy  !

I thought you would understand the reference.

[Gospodin 187]

Sure I know it. I have just never heard it in such a context. Totally misplaced, sorry.